Next seasons market appears better for him and no draft strings attached.

Another take

 

 

Edited November 14, 20197 yr by MMMordabito

mike sixel
2:05 Rumor has it Odorizzi will sign his QO. Like Ryu last year, this seems to make sense to me (not predicting he's as good as Ryu.....). He gets 18 million, and is a FA next year without the QO attached. Thoughts?

 

Craig Edwards
2:10 It's a surprising decision, for sure, if that's what ends up happening. There is a pretty strong class of mid-tier starting pitchers this year, though most teams could use one. It worked out well for Ryu as his market is a lot better. Lance Lynn had to take a one-year deal below the QO a few years ago when there were probably two-year deals on the table and while he might not have gotten as much as he's worth, he ended up okay. We'll see how Keuchel does. We normally think of taking the QO as avoiding risk, but that's not really the way it is for Odorizzi. He can probably get $30 million or something no matter what happens to his market. The risk is taking the QO and performing poorly. The reward is taking the $18 M now and then getting $40 M or more next season and doubling his downside. For a pitcher who is already making a lot of money, shooting for a bigger payday down the road does make some sense. I don't know that it is the right move given how much pitching teams need, but it isn't crazy.

 

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/craig-edwards-fangraphs-chat-11-14-2019/

 

While the QO is big money, were I in his shoes I'd much rather have the security of a 3yr deal for about $14M per. Just not sure I see betting on a good year, a healthy year, and the market values suddenly rising in the next off season.

 

While the QO is big money, were I in his shoes I'd much rather have the security of a 3yr deal for about $14M per. Just not sure I see betting on a good year, a healthy year, and the market values suddenly rising in the next off season.

 

This is valid, but I'll offer a little on each point that could be in consideration.

 

A good year:  He will still get to pitch against Detroit, KC and Chicago a lot.  Possibly throw in a Lindor-less Cleveland.  That makes it easier to bet on yourself.  I also think Baldelli will continue to manage him in a way that allows him to pitch with his best stuff for most of his innings.

 

A healthy year:  This is always a risk, but I think we've seen that playing for Baldelli means any hint of injury gets rest.  Well, unless you pull a Buxton and go kamikaze.

 

Market Value:  You'd have to think the market value rises on the lack of draft compensation alone. You could argue the extra year of age works against that, but good performance should make that one year of age a non-issue.

 

Just my thoughts.

Accepting the QO is his best options.  Michael Pineda got 2 year $10 million after undergoing TJ surgery.  So even if he blows up this year, with the QO he should make over $30 for the next 3 years.  Unless he hearing about offers around $50 million for 3 years, which I would doubt since he also has a draft pick penalty attached, this is his best option.

At minimum with his past history he should get at least 2 yr 15 million, and thats with a poor season.  If he implodes everything is off the table, but if his current market is 3 year 30 million, he is risking 12 million dollars for what ever he can get on his next contract.   The odds are heavily in his favor to accept this.  The 18 million is an overpay, but there is no long term risk in his contract.   Odorizzi should come out financially ahead with taking the QO.  The downside is he blows out his arm and is essentially done but he would still have the 18 million from this year, previous earnings and possible some insurance money. 

Odorizzi accepting a QO is a win all around. For Odorizzi, he can continue to pad his stats against a weak AL Central and raise his market floor for next season. For the Twins they pay a slight premium for financial flexibility in future years.

 

And worst case, if the season goes pear shaped Falvine can do a mini tear down and trade his expiring contract for moar prospects.

 

and possible some insurance money. 

 

I didn't even think of this.  It would interesting to see a formula for this part of the risk/value equation.

 

While the QO is big money, were I in his shoes I'd much rather have the security of a 3yr deal for about $14M per. Just not sure I see betting on a good year, a healthy year, and the market values suddenly rising in the next off season.

If you were in his shoes, you'd also already have $21 mil in career earnings in the bank, even before the $17.8 mil QO. He can afford to bet on getting better than 2/24 next winter with too much risk to his security.

From another angle, this is an overpay for the Twins. I'm thinking by 3-4 mil. Also there will be no compensation if he signs elsewhere now after 2020.

 

But with an internal SP, Graterol/Dobnik we are now looking at only 2 spots to fill in the rotation.

Updated... sounds like he's accepting.

 

 

From another angle, this is an overpay for the Twins. I'm thinking by 3-4 mil. Also there will be no compensation if he signs elsewhere now after 2020.

Who cares if he's a little overpaid for 2020? I'd rather pay $3-4 million extra for one year than $15 million in dead money 3-4 years from now. If he pitches just as well in 2020 there's nothing stopping the Twins from offering another contract.

Great news!

 

This was my number one thing that absolutely had to get done. I would have honestly like him on a 2-3 year deal, but we will take this for now. 

 

 

If you were in his shoes, you'd also already have $21 mil in career earnings in the bank, even before the $17.8 mil QO. He can afford to bet on getting better than 2/24 next winter with too much risk to his security.

Well, taxes take about half but with this contract he should still have 15 mil in the bank if he has any brains.   I know I might be in a minority of one but if I had 15 mil in the bank money would never again be a major factor in where I lived or where I pitched or what I do.  With unrestricted free agency I would strongly consider doing what Trevor Bauer talks about and just sign one year contracts for the rest of my career.   Ironically, he does that and stays healthy he probably maxes out his earning potential.  Anyway, if he is back I am pretty happy.   I never took his signing for granted.    I thought he was our best pitcher last year and the landscape looks a lot different with him on the team than with him out of it.

Best part is the Twins now have two rotation pieces in place. They can now focus on the FA market.

 

Who cares if he's a little overpaid for 2020? I'd rather pay $3-4 million extra for one year than $15 million in dead money 3-4 years from now. If he pitches just as well in 2020 there's nothing stopping the Twins from offering another contract.

Ovepaying for a player cuts into the budget. I'm fine with the signing btw. But after a lifetime of watching this team operate I'm well familiar with how they do business.

 

Who cares if he's a little overpaid for 2020? I'd rather pay $3-4 million extra for one year than $15 million in dead money 3-4 years from now. If he pitches just as well in 2020 there's nothing stopping the Twins from offering another contract.

 

You'll care if it stops them from signing another player, or has them sign a lesser player. 

You'll care if it stops them from signing another player, or has them sign a lesser player.

I hope we're past having a $110 million payroll. We both know there's plenty of money in baseball...

 

I hope we're past having a $110 million payroll. We both know there's plenty of money in baseball...

 

and yet, a recent off season plan had them at 120 or 106.......I too hope the team is looking at 150 million, give or take, but we just don't know.

Maybe...just MAYBE Jake doesn’t need any more money and he will walk away from baseball after this season.

 

It is possible to live off the money he’s set to earn this year (even if he nets only half) with the pension.

 

Just sayin

Not saying he’s that magnanimous, but I sure as heck could live off of a two million dollar windfall for the rest of my life (I’m 53)