Front Page: Multiple Teams Are Interested in Kyle Gibson. Should the Twins Be?

[Cody Christie]

There’s no question Kyle Gibson struggled this season. However, those struggles might be attributed to him trying to fight through ulcerative colitis throughout most of last season. He posted a sub-3.85 ERA in two of the last five seasons and now he is a free agent. Multiple teams are already interested adding Gibson, so does that mean the Twins should be interested?Over the weekend, MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman reported that as many as 10 teams were interested in Gibson. He reported that the Cleveland Clinic is treating his colitis and there are no lingering effects. This could certainly alter the Gibson market and his value could rise with increased interest.

 

Taking out last year’s injury-ridden season, Gibson pitched to a 4.31 ERA from 2015 through 2018. During that stretch, he posted a 549 to 259 strikeout to walk ratio while closing in on 700 innings. He’s never been what a person would deem an “ace,” but he has put together some respectable numbers while pitching for some very bad teams.

 

During the 2018 campaign, Gibson put himself in elite territory as his ERA, games started, innings pitched, hits, runs and base on balls all ranked in the top-20. Even while dealing with health issues this season, he ranked in the top-20 in wins, hits, runs and earned runs. He will be entering his age-32 season and there might be something left to coax out of Gibson’s right-arm.

 

Gibson’s groundball percentage is one thing that might be attractive to other organizations. A team with the right defensive infield could feast off the groundballs produced by Gibson. Minnesota projects to have Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, and C.J. Cron in the infield and that’s not exactly a top-notch defensive line-up. Gibson could be better served by finding a better defensive line-up.

 

At this point in his career, there’s little that points to him being a front-line starter. With that being said, not every team is looking for a pitcher to lead their rotation. Gibson has served the Twins organization well and he deserves his chance at testing the free agent waters. From there, he might be able to find a team that meets his style, while paying him the salary he has earned.

 

Gibson is getting noticed even in a market that includes multiple top-notch pitchers. He will make some money in the weeks ahead, but the question remains if Minnesota will be offering a contract. He could find greener pastures in another organization. However, Minnesota needs starting pitching and Gibson offers a familiar face with some potential up-side in the years to come.

 

Do you think the Twins should resign Kyle Gibson? Leave a COMMENT and star the discussion.

 

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[specialiststeve]

NOPE! 

[MN_ExPat]

Ouch... that's a little harsh Steve .

 

But on a more serious note.  I would feel fine if the Twins brought him back.   If he happens to find greener pastures elsewhere, then so be it and I wish Gibby nothing but the best for him and his family.   It's been awesome watching him in a Twins uni.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm 100% on board with the Twins retaining Gibson if they're confident the disease is in check and will remain in check.

 

But I'm skeptical that is the case.

 

But even so, if you retain Odorizzi and pick up two more good pitchers, I'd absolutely give Gibson a $5-7m flyer and see what happens.

[DocBauer]

If you really look at his career, beyond the numbers posted in the OP, you will a pretty solid first 2 full years in the league. That was followed by a pretty awful 1 1/2. Then, you get another another good/really good 1 1/2 years again, ending with a poor final half for 2019. You basically have 4 really solid years and 2 bad ones. Most of the arguments surrounding his "nibbling" was the bad 1 1/2 seasons and his decline the second half of 2019.

 

Velocity is still there, we've seen it, though the question is can he maintain it? I understand the interest. And for his sake, I hope the reports of therapy working are true. But feeling good now is very different than being able to manage and keep up his strength for an entire season. Not so sure so many teams being "interested" aren't more about kicking tires and doing due diligence.

 

While I have been a supporter of his, I am much more interested in adding a prime SP, re-signing Odorizzi, adding a 4th arm via trade, FA, or re-signing of Pineda, and then a smart flier to compete with the youngsters. I'd be OK if Gibson is sitting there come late January or early February and turns out to be that flier.

[Jham]

beggars can't be choosers. Best to keep all options open.

[Rosterman]

I would let him explore the market.

 

 

[darin617]

Nope. It's probably best for him as well to get a change of scenery and maybe another pitching coach can help him take his game to another level.

 

Good Luck/

[Mike Sixel]

Of course they should if they are confident the disease is under control. But I'd rather have Odo, Wheeler, and someone they trade for they like more than Gibson. If they can't get those three, then Gibson makes sense if he's healthy.

[ChrisKnutson]

If it’s truly one more year, sure why not. If not, Porcello and Hamels would be just as good, if not better, stopgaps for Graterol and Balazovic.

[2wins87]

It sounds like he's going to get a pretty good deal based on the number of teams interested, and that makes me think it won't be the Twins that sign him.

 

I hope he gets paid and pitches reasonably well, but as I've learned more about ulcerative colitis I've realized that it's probably something that continues to come back to affect his pitching from time to time, and could affect his overall level also if he's not able to keep to his training regimen.

 

I think there's going to be too much risk for the price he's going to get.

[Michigan Twins Fan]

If he's the fourth or fifth starter, then I'm all for this. If he's the third option, then I would pass.

[mikelink45]

Definitely no.  There is a time to move on - for both player and team.   We do not want a reunion, we want a championship and sentiment is out the window.  New blood! New Arms.  Really good arms.  Yes this is an arms race and I do not want to line up for the same results - give us October worthy arms.

[Thrylos]

The Twins have better younger and cheaper options at this point; Gibson is 32 and at the downturn of his career. Last season was a bit funky for pitching thoughout baseball and looking at absolute numbers can make for a tricky comparison, but if you look at relative numbers, 2019 was Gibson's best season with a 93 FIP- (7% better than league average.)  That said, with only one pitch better than average (slider), being on the wrong side of 30, fit for a number 5 in a post-season-competitive team and having a chronic disease (there is no cure for ulcerative colitis, only partial remission), makes others a higher priority than Gibson for the Twins who can spend that money towards someone on the top of the rotation.

[wavedog]

For the right price and contract length - sure I would bring him back.  I think he will have a solid bounce-back season next year.  I am guessing his agent put out that note about the interest - if there that much interest in him then the price and length may fall out of a reasonable range for us if we want to bring Odorizzi back and sign a top grade starter.       

[LewFordLives]

Given all the teams looking for pitching the Twins will be lucky to come away with two mid-tier arms via free agency or trade. They need to keep all options open, including Gibson. Realistically, the Twins rotation will probably be Berrios, Dobnak, two via free agents or trades, and another internal option for the last spot.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I wonder if the broad interest in Gibson is to Pineda him. Sign him cheap to a 1 year plus (team friendly) option, and hope he regains his strength/mojo.

 

If there are 4 better starters than Gibby including an additional front of rotation type, I'm very OK with taking a flyer on him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins have better younger and cheaper options at this point; Gibson is 32 and at the downturn of his career. Last season was a bit funky for pitching thoughout baseball and looking at absolute numbers can make for a tricky comparison, but if you look at relative numbers, 2019 was Gibson's best season with a 93 FIP- (7% better than league average.)  That said, with only one pitch better than average (slider), being on the wrong side of 30, fit for a number 5 in a post-season-competitive team and having a chronic disease (there is no cure for ulcerative colitis, only partial remission), makes others a higher priority than Gibson for the Twins who can spend that money towards someone on the top of the rotation.

 

Only Berrios is better at this point. I have no idea what that first sentence means. The other guys might eventually be better, but not one of them is as ready to help win baseball games as a healthy Gibson to start the season next year.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

 

[Cody Pirkl]

He want's to come back and if he's willing to take a significant discount and we're doing so on the premise that he's a fringe rotation guy, that'd be just fine. There's no guarantee that he comes back healthy next year, and even if he does, his entire career shows you that he's a guy that's going to pitch well enough to beat bad teams and be infuriating against good lineups. If we're signing him to be our number 3 starter and have an inside track on a rotation spot in the playoffs, I'd much rather see him leave.

[lukeduke1980]

If we don't retain Odorizzi then I'd consider Gibson as an option, but I'd rather not have both

[gunnarthor]

Depends on the deal but we have four open spots and we need to fill them. He could fill one.

[beckmt]

Would rather put the money toward other options.  Just hope the Twins do  not swing and miss.

[Mike Sixel]

People should look at the lists of free agents out there, and see where national sites have Gibson. Remember, most of those articles are written with anonymous team input....

 

There aren't a ton of great options, which is kind of a problem when you don't have anyone on your roster but Berrios.

[Vanimal46]

 

Depends on the deal but we have four open spots and we need to fill them. He could fill one.

 

Yeah. I find it hard to believe some team is going to show urgency in getting Gibson signed, given his health situation. If he's healthy, I'm sure the Twins will be one of the first teams to know and they can go from there. 

[bighat]

This tweet smells funny. Looks like Gibson's agent is leaking this info in order to stir up a bidding war....I'm guessing every free agent pitcher has 10 teams kicking the tires on him.

 

I can see Gibby getting a 1-year deal in a place like San Diego. Pitch in the weak-hitting NL for a couple years to end out his career. My prediction: he'll go 10-12 in SD with a 4.90 ERA next year, then grab another 1 year deal with a bottom feeder and finish his career in 2021 with a 2-6 showing before being shown the door mid-season.

 

Gibby will have nothing to be ashamed of when he hangs 'em up. He never lived up to his potential but he was serviceable. The Twins should shoot for higher than "serviceable", though.

[jmlease1]

 

If you really look at his career, beyond the numbers posted in the OP, you will a pretty solid first 2 full years in the league. That was followed by a pretty awful 1 1/2. Then, you get another another good/really good 1 1/2 years again, ending with a poor final half for 2019. You basically have 4 really solid years and 2 bad ones. Most of the arguments surrounding his "nibbling" was the bad 1 1/2 seasons and his decline the second half of 2019.
 

 

Gibson is a pretty complicated case because his track record isn't entirely indicative of who he is right now as a pitcher. He made a substantial change to his approach a couple years ago and it had really good results for him. He was giving up fewer hits, getting more Ks and still kept the ball in the park at a respectable rate. Last season he went out there every 5th day or so, but clearly wasn't fully healthy and there's no doubt the ulcerative colitis (combined with the offseason illness) really impacted him. Despite that, he was a pretty solid pitcher in the first half. the peripherals for those first 3 months or so look pretty solid.

 

I'd love to have a healthy Kyle Gibson back as a 4th or 5th guy on a cheap deal. But I don't think he's going to be available for a cheap deal, and I don't know if he's going to be healthy. I certainly don't want him on a multi-year pact right now.

 

1 year, $6-8M? I'd probably take the flyer on him getting healthy and pitching in the 4 or 5 spot in the rotation. $10-12M? I think someone else can give him that deal and we can find his performance elsewhere.

 

I like the guy, and respect the way he a) overhauled his entire approach to starting, and stepped up and took the ball every 5th day last season. He's got talent and can get guys out. But I don't think there's going to be a match here any longer, because the risk factors coupled with salary is going to be too high.

 

 

[DannySD]

Definitely. He's a nice 4th starter with the chance for more, and fits the culture. 1/$8 with a 2021 $12  team option. 

[Thrylos]

 

Only Berrios is better at this point. I have no idea what that first sentence means. The other guys might eventually be better, but not one of them is as ready to help win baseball games as a healthy Gibson to start the season next year.

 

2019 Twins SP FIP-

 

Dobnak -63
(Odorizzi) -73
Thorpe -75
Graterol -75
Berrios -84
(Pineda) -87
(Gibson) -93

 

The other guys were better albeit in slightly different roles or frequencies...   I'd rather see two of the young pitchers (or a find) at numbers 4 and 5 and save the $ they would have given Gibson, to sign/acquire a number 1 and number 2 that they need more than Gibson.

[Kelly Vance]

Gibby has been family for a long time.  His record is better than average, but not stellar.  I would let him test the waters.  If he can get a good deal, say goodbye and wish him well.  

 

Ulcerative colitis is no small thing. It killed Glenn Frey of The Eagles. RIP.   I want Gibby to get treatment and live a long time.  He is only 32.  This may be his last chance to get a good contract and it really bites that he has this cloud hanging over him. 

 

If Gibby gets a deal he likes, I will be happy for him. But like many of you, I don't trust that he will be what he once was. And I doubt his strength over a long grueling season.

 

So I am against signing him, unless its on a #5 starter basis for at least the first 6 weeks while big Mike serves his suspension. I think his role may change once Mike comes back. I think he becomes a BP piece.