Front Page: The Twins Shouldn't Give Up on Rosario

[Dman]

 

I think people are confusing ideas here....

The downside of Eddie is that he's getting more expensive, at a position where the minor league system is stacked. A mid market team can't afford Eddie at some point. I don't think this is that year. Also, people seem to not compare him to other corner outfielders.... He's not all that great compared to other corner players.

Over the last 18 months he's been ok compared to other corner outfielders. That's just what the overall offensive numbers show.

That doesn't make him bad. It doesn't mean they need to get rid of him. It means they need the minor league players to step up this year. Because eventually they won't be able to afford him and pitching.

 

MIke I see this the same way.  This isn't about bashing Eddie it is simply logical numbers based decision making.  I love Rosario as much as the next guy but when looking at our farm system and payroll Eddie looks like the most likely to go at this point.  Don't get me wrong I am pretty sure the Twins are keeping Rosario this year as they need the proven outfield depth so unless some team wants to overpay he will be around next year.

 

Look the guy was almost an All Star in the first half but teams made changes just before the break and they seemed effective.  They played Eddie to his pull side on defense and they kept pitching him low and away out of the zone and after two strikes they threw him junk and he swung at almost anything with two strikes.  Granted he was also injured and that affected him as well but he needs to better understand when to swing and when not to swing if he ever wants to be that All Star player he wants to become.  Given what I have seen I don't think he can change and if he can't then he is replaceable IMO.

[TopGunn#22]

I can't speak for everyone looking to trade Eddie, but I will speak for myself.  I LIKE Eddie Rosario.  No "Hate" involved here.  But we need to fill FOUR of our 5 starting pitching slots and we've got not one, but TWO young corner outfielder types in Larnach and Kiriloff that WILL be better hitters than Eddie.  I look at our roster and where else are you going to get a GOOD starting pitcher?  There's a reason Eddie's name keeps coming up.  He's not as bad as people are making him out to be.  he's actually pretty darn good.  There will be more than a handful of teams that could use a 32 HR  109 RBI guy in their lineup.  But honestly, our lineup can withstand losing Eddie's bat if it brings us back a solid #2 or #3 type.  I guarantee you, once Larnach and Kiriloff make it to the big leagues, with whatever team they end up on, they will be more productive overall than Eddie.  They will both see more pitches and be tougher outs.  But Eddie could really help a team that needs some sock in one of their corner outfield positions.

[Major League Ready]

 

I can't speak for everyone looking to trade Eddie, but I will speak for myself.  I LIKE Eddie Rosario.  No "Hate" involved here.  But we need to fill FOUR of our 5 starting pitching slots and we've got not one, but TWO young corner outfielder types in Larnach and Kiriloff that WILL be better hitters than Eddie.  I look at our roster and where else are you going to get a GOOD starting pitcher?  There's a reason Eddie's name keeps coming up.  He's not as bad as people are making him out to be.  he's actually pretty darn good.  There will be more than a handful of teams that could use a 32 HR  109 RBI guy in their lineup.  But honestly, our lineup can withstand losing Eddie's bat if it brings us back a solid #2 or #3 type.  I guarantee you, once Larnach and Kiriloff make it to the big leagues, with whatever team they end up on, they will be more productive overall than Eddie.  They will both see more pitches and be tougher outs.  But Eddie could really help a team that needs some sock in one of their corner outfield positions.

 

I agree completely except for the part we should move Eddie for a SP. It is very rare ( I can't think of a single example ) where a position player with 2 years of control is moved for good starting pitching. Any team wanting Rosario would be because they the have a hole to close in order to contend. Trading away a good starting pitcher does not fit in that scenario. He will be moved to make room for Larnach or Kirilloff when one of them proves to be ready. He could also be moved if the payroll can be allocated better elsewhere.

Edited November 11, 2019 by Major League Ready

[singlesoverwalks]

Watch video of Rosario from May. Watch, say, that game where they hit 8 home runs against the Angels. He's noticeably faster than he was at the end of the year. He burns down the line for an infield hit, scores from third on a sacrifice fly to shortstop, and does a pretty good job cutting off a double in the corner.

 

He had that ankle injury, and that slowed him down. That's why he looked so awful in the outfield. If you've ever had an ankle injury, you know they don't get better if you run on them.

 

And I have another theory. I think he gets bored. He's a bit of a space cadet, and if the situation isn't dramatic, he spaces out. Once the Twins had the playoffs more or less in hand and were playing that long string of games against mediocre teams, he checked out mentally. But when it came time to play the Yankees in the playoffs, he was really good again.

 

He is such a clutch player. He just is. If you need statistical evidence of that, here's a Fangraphs custom table listing all Twins with over 20 PA sorted by WPA (win probability added). Rosario, despite his relatively pedestrian aggregate numbers (reflected in his paltry WAR), still comes out 6th. That shows that he performs well in high-leverage situations.

 

Name | PA | WAR | WPA
Nelson Cruz | 521 | 4.3 | 3.62
Max Kepler | 596 | 4.4 | 3.01
Luis Arraez | 366 | 2.1 | 1.85
Jorge Polanco | 704 | 4 | 1.77
Miguel Sano | 439 | 2.7 | 1.29
Eddie Rosario | 590 | 1.2 | 1.28
Mitch Garver | 359 | 3.9 | 1.27
Marwin Gonzalez | 463 | 1.4 | 1.23
Byron Buxton | 295 | 2.7 | 1.03
LaMonte Wade | 69 | -0.2 | 0.47
Ehire Adrianza | 236 | 0.6 | 0.42
Willians Astudillo | 204 | -0.2 | 0.04
Jake Cave | 228 | 0.9 | -0.12
Ryan LaMarre | 26 | 0.1 | -0.12
Jason Castro | 275 | 1.6 | -0.47
Jonathan Schoop | 464 | 1.3 | -1.1
C.J. Cron | 499 | 0.3 | -1.59

 

If you want to know how bad WPA can get with a player with lots of plate appearances, check out C. J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop. lol.

[Trov]

I have a love hate relationship with Eddie.  He can come up big in big situations but his fielding is dropping, and he plays a very replaceable position.  That being said, I doubt he has much value this day in age for trade.  All the numbers being sited here every front office has, or should have.  I would not be upset with a trade or keeping him, but if the FO thinks our OF prospects can match production and the money saved would bring in better pitching then trade or non-tender him.  I do not think many teams would give up much for him.  I know if I was on a different team looking to trade for him I would not be chomping at the bit to get him. 

[Harrison Greeley III]

The Twins should be listening on offers on Rosario at this point, but I'm not so sold on actively shopping him anymore. When it was first mentioned in the summer, there was an impression they'd get value for him. But now most non-Minnesota sports coverage I've seen seems familiar with his weaknesses in the field and strikezone judgment. I would not expect a big return for him. He's not going to fetch 'impact pitching' in return. Therefore I think the best course of action is to hang on to him till free agency unless a team offers something too good to pass up. 

[Brandon]

Those prospects aren't ready now and I highly doubt they outperform Eddie in 2020. I think Rosario is a year to year kind of guy personally. I don't think he's going to get that pitching back, but I do want him on the team in 2020...

 

Let's not forget that Eddie was one of the few guys who hit well in the playoffs.

Since I can't like this post on my phone, I will just state it.

 

And while I agree with this statement, I was only pointing out why we would trade Eddie. If we can get enough pitching from him to justify going down to 20 HR and 80 RBI at a fraction of the cost it could be justified...I imagine there would be more to a trade like this...

[nicksaviking]

I've previously said that corner bats are easy to find in free agency, but I see MLBTR is predicting large multi year deals for both Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna, with both guys getting about $15M per. Both are similar .800+ish OPS corner guys with suspect defense, with Castellanos' defense being notoriously bad. 

 

I'd tend to think MLBTR is overestimating the two free agent's values, but I guess we'll see.