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Front Page: 8 Players the Twins Need to Add to the 40-Man Roster


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Re-post as the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster is 7:00 p.m. on Wednesday, November 20.  Between now and March, there are many decisions that this front office will need to make. (See the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook for much more on them.). The Twins made several roster moves on Monday, and more will happen soon. One big decision that is made every November is which players to add to the 40-man roster. Being added to the 40-man roster is a really big deal for players. They make extra money in the minor leagues, but more important, a huge obstacle to being called up to the big leagues is removed. Below you will find a list of Twins minor leaguers who would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not protected on the 40-man roster.With Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart and Martin Perez removed from the Twins 40-man rosteron Monday, as well as six Twins players being free agents, the Twins 40-man roster is currently at 31 players. Here’s the quick version:

  • Pitchers (16): Jorge Alcala, Jose Berrios, Randy Dobnak, Tyler Duffey, Brusdar Graterol, Ryne Harper, Trevor Hildenberger, Zack Littell, Trevor May, Sean Poppen, Taylor Rogers, Fernando Romero, Devin Smeltzer, Cody Stashak, Lewis Thorpe, Matt Wisler.
  • Catchers (2): Willians Astudillo, Mitch Garver
  • Infielders (7): Ehire Adrianza, Luis Arraez, CJ Cron, Marwin Gonzalez, Nick Gordon, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano
  • Outfielders: (5) Byron Buxton, Jake Cave, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, LaMonte Wade
  • DH(1): Nelson Cruz
Recall that the players who are added to the 40-man roster can’t be DFA'd until spring training, so the team will likely not want to fill up their roster now. But as you can see, there are still players on this list that need to be offered arbitration (or not) and there are several players who could be DFA'd for when the team signs free agents.

 

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Last year, the Twins added three players to their 40-man roster. The “givens” at that time were Nick Gordon and LaMonte Wade. We included Luis Arraez as the first “on the bubble” name. The third “on the bubble” name mentioned here a year ago was RH RP Nick Anderson who was traded to the Marlins and pitched tremendously for the Marlins and the Rays as a rookie in 2019.

 

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So, let’s get to the players that the team will consider adding to their 40-man roster.

 

As a reminder, here are some of the criteria for who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not protected. Here is this year’s criteria:

  • Players who signed when they were 18 or younger in 2015 (during the minor league season).
  • Players who signed when they were 19 or older in 2016.
  • Players who were eligible in previous seasons are also eligible again.
  • Players drafted or signed during the 2013 season became free agents after the World Series was complete. That includes Johan Quezada and Jose Martinez. That is why Kohl Stewart, who went unclaimed on Monday, was able to become a free agent. If the Twins signed them (or other minor league free agents) before the Rule 5 draft, they would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft.
But back to the players needing to be added or risk losing to the Rule 5 draft, I’ll break them into a few categories. The Givens are players that I think have to be added or there is a high likelihood that they will be selected by another team. The next group is a group of players that I think will probably be added, though not quite as obviously. The final group includes players that I would consider On The Bubble. It will be interesting to see which of these guys are added later this month. How many spots will be available on the team’s 40-man roster at that time?

 

The Givens

 

Several players that would have been Givens were already added to the 40-man roster and called up late in the season. In fact, there were several guys who may have been borderline who were added already. For instance, Brusdar Graterol and Jorge Alcala were going to be added. No question. Here are a couple more.

  • RHP Jhoan Duran - He came to the Twins in July 2018 from the Diamondbacks in the Eduardo Escobar trade. Duran throws hard. He hit triple-digits with a fastball several times in many of his starts. He went just 2-9 despite a 3.23 ERA in 16 games (15 starts) for the Miracle. He had 95 strikeouts in 78 innings.He moved up to AA Pensacola where he went 3-3 with a 4.86 ERA in seven starts. He struck out 41 batters in 37 innings. The 21-year-old stands 6-5 and has the potential for a starting pitcher’s mix.
  • RHP Dakota Chalmers - Chalmers was a third-round pick of the Oakland A’s in 2015 out of high school in Georgia. He throws hard, but he has often struggled with control. He also fought injury and had Tommy John surgery early in 2018. The Twins acquired him in August in the Fernando Rodney trade. He returned to the mound in the second half of the 2019 season. After rehabbing in the GCL, the 23-year-old finished the regular season in Ft. Myers with the Miracle. He pitched for the Blue Wahoos in the playoffs and then headed to the Arizona Fall League to get more innings. He has a mid-90s fastball and good spin on his curveball. He also throws a changeup that is good when on.
The Probables
  • 2B/3B Travis Blankenhorn - The 23-year-old struggled in 2018 in Ft. Myers, as many do in the Florida State League, so he began 2019 with the Miracle. After just 15 games, he was promoted to AA Pensacola. He took off from there. In 93 games with the Blue Wahoos, he hit .278 with 18 doubles and 18 home runs. He was the Twins third-round pick in 2015 out of high school in Pennsylvania. He is one of the best athletes in the organization and has power and speed.
  • OF Gilberto Celestino - The same year Javier signed with the Twins, the Astros signed Gilberto Celestino to a $2.25 million signing bonus. He came to the Twins in 2018 in the Ryan Pressly trade (with Jorge Alcala). He began 2019 by really struggling in Cedar Rapids, but he was on fire the final three months of the season and ended the year with the Miracle. And there, in 30 at-bats, he hit .300/.344/.433 (.767)
  • OF Luke Raley - Raley was the Dodgers seventh-round pick in 2016 out of Division 2 Lake Erie College. He played well, and in July 2018, he came to the Twins with Devin Smeltzer in the Brian Dozier trade. He started 2019 in Rochester and was playing well when he hurt his ankle and needed surgery. It ended his season though he did play in the Arizona Fall League. He has power, and can play all three outfield positions, though center field is a stretch.
On the Bubble
  • RHP Luis Rijo - He came to the Twins from the Yankees in the July 2018 Lance Lynn trade. In 2018 in Cedar Rapids, he impressed by often hitting 95 and 96 mph with his fastball. He went 5-8 with a 2.86 ERA over 107 innings pitched. If he had spent time in Ft. Myers, he would probably be a Given, but could a team stash him for the full 2019 season?
  • SS Wander Javier - When you sign an amateur to a $4 million signing bonus, you’d like to think that this decision would be easy, and maybe it is. But Javier has unfortunately missed nearly two seasons because of injury (most of 2016 in DSL and all of 2018). His 2019 started late and in 80 games, he hit just .177 with nine doubles and 11 home runs. He also had 17 errors. So, could he play in the big leagues today? Probably not. But he has as much talent as anyone in the organization, so a team might be willing to stash the 20-year-old on their big league roster for his potential.
  • RHP Griffin Jax - The Twins third-round pick in 2016 out of the Air Force Academy. He signed and while he had commitments to the military, he pitched each summer. He has been able to pitch consistently since early in the 2018 season. He spent most of the 2019 season in Double-A Pensacola but made a couple of starts at Triple-A Rochester too. In 23 starts, he went a combined 5-7 with a 2.90 ERA. In 127 1/3 innings, he walked just 27 and struck out 94 (6.6 K/9).
The Next

 

This is a group that contains some intriguing names. While they aren’t obvious choices, there could be a team that likes them enough to take a shot with a Rule 5 pick.

  • 1B Zander Wiel - The 26-year-old hit .254 with 40 doubles, five triples and 24 RBI at AAA Rochester in 2019 while performing adequately at first base.
  • IF/OF Trey Cabbage - The 22-year-old was the Twins 4th round pick in 2015 out of high school in Tennessee. He is incredibly strong and hit a combined 15 homers in 2019 between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers.
  • LHP Sam Clay - Fourth round pick in 2014 from Georgia Tech, Clay reached AAA in 2019. In 123 2/3 innings above High A, he has not given up a home run. In 69 1/3 innings in 2019 (2/3 of the innings in AA), he walked 28 and struck out 72 batters.
  • RHP Moises Gomez - The 22-year-old Venezuelan posted a 1-4 record with 10 saves and a 2.91 ERA this season between Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers. He also struck out 15 batters in 11 innings in the Arizona Fall League (we won’t mention the nine walks).
  • RHP Jake Reed - We have brought him up as a Must-Add each of the last few seasons. He hasn’t been added, and he hasn’t been selected. Now 27, he is coming off of a 2019 season in which he posted a 5.76 ERA in Rochester (though he struck out 92 batters in 75 innings).
  • RHP Tom Hackimer - The side-winding 25-year-old was the Twins 4th round pick in 2016 from St. John's. When healthy, he has been very productive. In 56 2/3 innings in 2019, he struck out 75 batters.
The Rest

 

Here is a list of other players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft in the Twins organization.

  • LHP Alex Robinson
  • RHP Miguel De Jesus
  • LHP Lachlan Wells
  • RHP Yancarlos Baez
  • RHP Melvi Acosta
  • RHP Adam Bray
  • RHP Andro Cutura
  • LHP Zach Featherstone
  • RHP Randy LeBlanc
  • RHP Hector Lujan
  • RHP Andriu Marin
  • RHP Ryan Mason
  • LHP Jovani Moran
  • RHP Alex Schick
  • RHP Carlos Suniaga
  • LHP Andrew Vasquez
  • LHP Tyler Watson
  • RHP Tyler Wells
  • IF Joe Cronin
  • SS Yeltsin Encarnacion
  • C Caleb Hamilton
  • 3B Brian Schales
  • OF Aaron Whitefield
  • OF Malique Ziegler
In the comments below, discuss my ranking and rank them by how you would protect them.

 

We saw in 2019, and in 2018 too, that the Twins front office will make moves and keep that Rochester Connection quite active, so being on the 40-man roster is a big deal, but we have also seen that it can be altered frequently throughout a season.

 

So, who do you think will be added? Does the fact that the Twins 40-man roster is currently at just 31 and there are others who could be DFAd still make you think they will add as many as eight players in two weeks?

 

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Position players and wild pitchers rarely get rule 5'ed and if they do they often dont stick.

 

Id say Duran Rio and maybe Jax.

 

If Celestino's glove is good enough some team may take a risk on him as a 4th OF'er but I doubt it.

 

Chalmers walks make him unlikely to stick on a 25 man roster all year.

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I would say Duran, Rio, Jax, Javier for sure.  Raley and Chalmers possible.  It is much easier to stash a pitcher for a year and let them pitch in blowouts to start and see if they can handle the major leagues (or have enough talent not to send back).  Remember one of the key past Twins moves was stashing Johan Santana that way. Blankenhorn and Celesto both are on the edge for me.  For Celesto   I would have to see if he is better than Wade and or Raley, Blankenhorn I might try and bundle and trade as I do not see a spot in the near future in the Twin Cities.

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NOT counting 40 man numbers to the MARK, or allowing spots for FA, but simply looking at possible additions:

 

Duran: Yes

 

Chalmers: Maybe to no. I want to keep him, but would he really stick with another team at this point?

 

Raley: Yes. If not for his injury, we are talking about NOT protecting Wade, IMO.

 

Blankenhorn/Celestino: Would like to protect both. Scared another team would try to fit them in where they could. But could they realistically do so?

 

Javier: Yes. Too much talent, too much potential. Some team would use the 26 man roster and find any small hurt/injury to justify keeping him around.

 

Jax: Even with expanded rosters, just no room to keep him on board for a full season, and potential still unsure enough to do so.

 

Rijo: You just don't keep someone this young and unproven on your roster unless you are really certain of future reward. Similar to Jax, but probably a higher ceiling.

 

Amongst the rest, Wiel is the only one I'd hate to see go. He might have a future. But where does he fit in order to be protected over so many others?

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"......in 80 games, he hit just .177 with nine doubles and 11 home runs. He also had 17 errors. So, could he play in the big leagues today? Probably not. But he has as much talent as anyone in the organization....."

 

So much talent, I keep hearing. If he has that much talent, but can only perform at these levels in the low minors, there seems to something drastically wrong with the talent assumption, it seems. I mean seriously, the results of all this talent has been horrible. I get the injuries, but he was healthy for the 80 games, right? These numbers are not supporting the assumptive talent. Even 17 errors in only 80 games. Something is askew.

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Not sure I agree with you on Chalmers and Celestino... Celestino is a bat in high A, and not even a stand out bat. I know with the 26 man, bad teams may try and poach a bit more, but that's a guy you cannot hide for a year.

 

Chalmers has pitched a bit higher, but walking 6 batters per 9 innings, even with the sexy K rate will likely have a tough time in MLB... A tanking team my want him, but he's going to havea  tough time sticking...

 

On the other hand,I have to think Tyler WElls gets added.

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I'd be shocked if Wander Javier is not protected, and to a lesser extent Griffin Jax also. I think they are both keepers. Diehardtwinsfan mentioned Tyler Wells, and he could be a sleeper keeper too. Luke Raley I'm less sure about. Seems like his skills duplicate several other guys in the organization.

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With the 40-man at 31 today, they could add up to 9.  BUT, they need at least 3 spots for starters and that assumes one of last year's rookies takes the #5 spot...which is questionable.  So they probably need 4 spots for starters.  I can see three more players likely to be removed from the roster as they add pitchers, Hildenberger, Harper and Poppen or the new guy.  Put all these moves together and it is unlikely they will add more than 7 or 8 at the max.

 

The player I disagree with you most, Seth, is Jax.  I see him as a must add as I see him being one of the few from this list who could contribute by late summer.  With his limited innings while in the Air Force, I see a much bigger upside than most.  The biggest question marks to me are Chalmers, Celestino and Javier.  Will be shocked if all three are added.  I think the Rijo situation may be a bit like Santana and will be suprised if he isn't added as I expect him to be gone if he isn't. 

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I would say Duran, Rio, Jax, Javier for sure.  Raley and Chalmers possible.  It is much easier to stash a pitcher for a year and let them pitch in blowouts to start and see if they can handle the major leagues (or have enough talent not to send back).  Remember one of the key past Twins moves was stashing Johan Santana that way. Blankenhorn and Celesto both are on the edge for me.  For Celesto   I would have to see if he is better than Wade and or Raley, Blankenhorn I might try and bundle and trade as I do not see a spot in the near future in the Twin Cities.

 

I don't think the decision on Celestino has anything to do with Wade or Raley. The decision on Celestino is almost solely going to be based on his talent and potential. Same with Javier. It's similar to when the Twins protected Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler after their 2013 seasons in Cedar Rapids. 

 

As for the 'trade' idea.. .I think that's a great point. Lots of options here that may be fairly borderline decisions, and like Nick Anderson last year, the Twins could use them in trades. 

 

 

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"......in 80 games, he hit just .177 with nine doubles and 11 home runs. He also had 17 errors. So, could he play in the big leagues today? Probably not. But he has as much talent as anyone in the organization....."

 

So much talent, I keep hearing. If he has that much talent, but can only perform at these levels in the low minors, there seems to something drastically wrong with the talent assumption, it seems. I mean seriously, the results of all this talent has been horrible. I get the injuries, but he was healthy for the 80 games, right? These numbers are not supporting the assumptive talent. Even 17 errors in only 80 games. Something is askew.

 

He hasn't played much due to injury, so yeah, he definitely struggled. The Twins can try to sneak him through, and maybe successfully. But at the lower levels, and with all his time missed, the decision won't (or shouldn't be) about his results... If something is wrong with the process, which we just aren't privy to, that could factor in as well. 

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The player I disagree with you most, Seth, is Jax.  I see him as a must add as I see him being one of the few from this list who could contribute by late summer.  With his limited innings while in the Air Force, I see a much bigger upside than most.  The biggest question marks to me are Chalmers, Celestino and Javier.  Will be shocked if all three are added.  I think the Rijo situation may be a bit like Santana and will be suprised if he isn't added as I expect him to be gone if he isn't. 

 

Jax is interesting because he's fairly close to the big leagues... but the strikeout numbers have to be concerning. He's a ground ball pitcher in a league that now values high fastballs and velocity more. That said, he's had enough success and solid numbers, that I think he'll get a long look and very much could be added. 

 

It's hard to know how an organization values its players that are at various levels. Jax is closer and maybe more of a 'sure thing' than Rijo, but Rijo has so much more upside but he's not a guy for 2020. Same thing in the outfield. Luke Raley can play in the big leagues now, but he's probably not the prospect that Wade is or has been... he fits more into the Cave category, I would think. Meanwhile, Celestino is probably 1 1/2 to 2 years from being ready, but he has much more upside.

 

How to place value on that type of choice can't be easy.

 

Ultimately, having tough decisions is a good thing for an organization. 

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The top 8 for me are basically given, depending on where they think Javier is at and IF they believe he could stick for a whole year somewhere else. I also think Sam Clay could be a good option. Lots of talent here for sure. Any chance any of these players are moved prior to the point where a decision has to be made, specifically for players that wouldn't have to be on the 40 man?

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I hope Falvey has asked his people to identify those teams who are thin in MLB-ready OF depth such as Cave, Raley, and Wade, with the idea of a low minors high ceiling prospect return.

 

The Twins were one of those needy teams when the Yanks talked them out of Luis Gil in exchange for Cave. Gil is now NYY's 4th-ranked prospect, albeit in a so-so pipeline.

 

This is the type of trade I want to see from this FO. Sellers whenever possible, from their own modest surplus into another team's more urgent need. Gordon and Cave clearing space on the 40-man roster. Pitching the bubble guys to other teams when you don't have a spot, guys like Raley, Blankenhorn, Wiel, maybe Poppen, Jax or Smeltzer if you're not sold on them and expect Thorpe, Duran, Ober, Colina, and Balazovic to pass them by...

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The Twins still need to decide on Harper, Hildenberger - and possibly the real worth if Wisler. Also, a hard decision on Cron. Is LaMonte Wade still a keeper?

 

They should add two free agent starters, one bullpen arm (a bonifide closer) and a backup catcher. Looking at the list, any of these names could also be reasonable trade bait.

 

But also looking at the names, there aren't a lot of HARD adds. At this point, Raley is a keeper. Celastino is a possible. But you have to make a decision, then, on Wade (and Cave) for keeping. Of course, moving Rosario suddenly means you need someone in the outfield. Can Cave or Raley fill that bill?

 

Wiel is an interesting choice, as the Twins have no bonafide backup for first base. Yes, they have guys who can play first. So depending on the Cron decision.....

 

Griffin Jax is a keeper. He has as much of a chance to be an arm on the staff as Smeltzer, Poppen, Alcala. Throw in Thorpe and Alcala...you need to protect pitchers THAT CAN BE USED IN 2020. With that in mind, you want to keep Clay. Chalmers is a possibility, but  don't see anyone grabbing him...yet.

 

Look at who the Twins protected gong into 2019. The rotation strength was Gonsalves, Slegers, Mejia, DeJong, Stewart, Thorpe. They had Vasquez, Moya, Curtiss, Addison Reed on the roster and got mileage out of Magill, Parker and Morin. They added in people like Diplan, Torres and Adams.

 

Sure, you run the risk of a High-A or even AA arm being grabbed and stashed for a year by a non-contender. That is why you trade these possible grab arms for usable pieces when the opportunity arises (or any of your potential minor league free agents...anyone have a list of who the Twins are losing as minor league free agents?). 

 

B;lankenhorn is also an intersting add. Again, depends on Cron. Is he ready to push to be a utility infielder, or can he step in if you need a third base replacement if Sano goes down? You already have Nick Gordon, who is kinda in a play or trade mode.

 

I see adding Duran, Jax, Raley, Blankenhorn. Possibly Wiel, Celestino, Chalmers.

 

Again, there is a lot of talent that could be used as tradebait, to get that catcher or one of your starters. 

 

But I would try and sign Robinson Chirinos as the second catcher. I would be happy with the free agent predictions on mlb trade rumos of Bumgarner and Odorizzi as starting arms, and Smith as a bullpen arm. I would trade for that third starter needed. Suddenly the Twins look pretty dynamite.

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We talk about trading the "surplus" guys to other clubs, but how many other clubs have excess slots on their 40-man rosters to be able to protect them?

 

I realize that the Twins have an above-average farm system, but overall isn't this a bit like having too many chairs and not enough spots at the table? 

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The top 8 for me are basically given, depending on where they think Javier is at and IF they believe he could stick for a whole year somewhere else. I also think Sam Clay could be a good option. Lots of talent here for sure. Any chance any of these players are moved prior to the point where a decision has to be made, specifically for players that wouldn't have to be on the 40 man?

 

Yup, as I mentioned, I would think that either these guys, or someone already on the 40 man could be traded. For just an example, there's a similarity between Jake Cave and Luke Raley... They could trade either one of them for a low-level prospect and keep the other (or add the other) to the 40-man roster. 

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8 players is a ton to add. I don't think that's a smart use of limited resources. 4, maybe 5 is fine to add. This is the time to save the other 40 man spots for trades and free agent signings.

 

They will... we have to figure they'll add at least four pitchers, maybe an infielder, maybe a catcher. That's six spots there. A trade could be made, including 40-man spots or not. So I don't expect them to add all eight. I just think those are the 8 that should be most strongly considered. I do think they'll add 6-7. 

 

They're at 31 right now. If they add seven, that'd put them at 38 before the Rule 5 draft (pending an early signing at the Winter Meetings or before). They could add two without a worry. They still have several players on their 40-man that could be DFAd (Harper, Wisler, etc.). So I think they can add 6-7 without it affecting their offseason plans at all.  That said, 4-5 is also possible and you hope that the others don't get taken. 

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Given the space available, I'm adding at least 7 names, for me they would be:

 

Jhoan Duran

Dakota Chalmers

Luke Raley

Gilberto Celestino

Luis Rijo

Travis Blankenhorn

Wander Javier

 

Can make cases for Jax and Hackimer as well, and I would love to see Reed. 

 

MLB roster is already stacked at 1B/Corner OF/DH options, hard to justify adding guys like Wiel, even though I like him too.

 

Unlike last year, I don't think there are guys I'd expect to be taken that can't be protected, though the 26th man may mess with that thought process a little.

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Watched several games at Cedar Rapids. Completely unimpressed with Javier. He's still very raw and undisciplined. He looks like he's several years away from the majors, if he'll ever get there.

Was much more impressed with Rijo. His pitches have life and he has some idea on how to use them. I think he could evolve into a nice bullpen arm at the big league level.

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You protect the top-end international guys. You just do. (The fact that they become rule-5 eligible at such a ridiculously early point in their development, is a topic unto itself.) But it's about the ceiling. And especially in the day of tanking teams and 26-man rosters, more of these types will be targeted.

 

Has Javier played his way out of being defined as a 'top-end' guy? Not in my book...yet. But it's reasonable IMO if one draws a different conclusion.

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I think you have to protect Tyler Wells. He was just too damn good before his TJ surgery. Most others I agree with though.

 

Another interesting case. While he was the TD Minor League SP of the Year in 2018, I don't know if he ever has reached that kind of prospect status that makes him a guy that would be taken to sit a year. But teams should probably do their due diligence on him. 

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I hope Falvey has asked his people to identify those teams who are thin in MLB-ready OF depth such as Cave, Raley, and Wade, with the idea of a low minors high ceiling prospect return.

 

The Twins were one of those needy teams when the Yanks talked them out of Luis Gil in exchange for Cave. Gil is now NYY's 4th-ranked prospect, albeit in a so-so pipeline.

 

This is the type of trade I want to see from this FO. Sellers whenever possible, from their own modest surplus into another team's more urgent need. Gordon and Cave clearing space on the 40-man roster. Pitching the bubble guys to other teams when you don't have a spot, guys like Raley, Blankenhorn, Wiel, maybe Poppen, Jax or Smeltzer if you're not sold on them and expect Thorpe, Duran, Ober, Colina, and Balazovic to pass them by...

 

Concur. 100%.

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 I am very curious what they do with him... About 4 million reasons to protect him, but 40-man spots are really valuable. 

 

the money they spent is irrelevant at this point. Will he be taken? Does it matter?

 

I'm going with no, he will not be taken, and rolling the dice. 

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the money they spent is irrelevant at this point. Will he be taken? Does it matter?

 

I'm going with no, he will not be taken, and rolling the dice. 

 

I tend to agree... I think that's why I have him down in the On the Bubble. I think they'll add 6-7 and have him at that level, so it's a coin flip. I just think he's so talented, I'm sure they don't want to lose him... 

The other part about 'rolling the dice' is that even if the are taken, about half of them end up coming back too. 

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