Free Agent Rankings and Projected Contracts

[dbminn]

Fangraphs has posted their 2020 Free Agent Rankings, including contracts projected by Kiley McDaniel and the "crowdsource" (FG readers). 

 

For the Gibson haters, he's ranked 15th and is expected to get a 2-3 year contract. 

 

Odo is ranked 17th and Pineda 20th.

 

For the Wheeler lovers, the contract looks reasonable at 4/$68-$72M. I'd take that in a heartbeat.

 

Also, today is the deadline for issuing Qualifying Offers, per MLBTradeRumors. Their offseason calendar is located here.

 

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

For the Gibson haters, he's ranked 15th and is expected to get a 2-3 year contract. 

Wow, the write-up doesn't even mention Gibson's health or the way he ended his season. I wouldn't trust the conclusion if they ignore that important context.

 

Kiley McDaniel has him projected for a 3/45 deal, which seems impossible at this point (if it was possible, he'd probably get a QO today).

 

The crowd prediction seems a lot better at 2/20, which would drop his rank to around 21st, rightfully behind Odorizzi and Pineda. Although even that seems like it might be generous -- all signs point to a one-year deal, maybe with an option? He's just not terribly trustworthy after that finish.

[Vanimal46]

Not that I expect Fangraphs to know every player's situation, but that's a big miss to leave out Gibson's health situation.

[dbminn]

 

Wow, the write-up doesn't even mention Gibson's health or the way he ended his season. I wouldn't trust the conclusion if they ignore that important context.

 

Kiley McDaniel has him projected for a 3/45 deal, which seems impossible at this point (if it was possible, he'd probably get a QO today).

 

The crowd prediction seems a lot better at 2/20, which would drop his rank to around 21st, rightfully behind Odorizzi and Pineda. Although even that seems like it might be generous -- all signs point to a one-year deal, maybe with an option? He's just not terribly trustworthy after that finish.

 

I'm sure McDaniel is aware of Gibson's health or he wouldn't have projected him so high. Still, I agree the fans are more accurate - 2/$20 seems about right. One year with an option/incentives could benefit both the signing team and Gibson. I think he'll sign late, or at least until he can prove he's fully healthy.

 

Gibson has one advantage over Odo as far as contract value - the Qualifying Offer. Interested teams will have to factor in the cost of the lost draft pick. My guess is the Twins offer Odo the QO but not Gibson.

[Musk21]

I do like what Gibson brings to this club as a clubhouse leader, but when he is listed as the 7th highest rated SP and ahead of Odorizzi and Pineda, then I think maybe our options are better served by scouring the trade market.

 

Outside of Cole and Strasburg, any of the other FA options have some kind of red flags that give me extreme pause (age, injury history, road splits, etc) in offering 4 year deals at over $15 million a year.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Remember, these write-ups are done after talking to teams, and others in the industry...... And Kiley didn't write them all...

 

I'm shocked at the Gibson ranking, given his health.

[scottz]

Also from Fangraphs, some additional thoughts on Odo and Gibson.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-17-8-million-question/

 

[70charger]

 

Remember, these write-ups are done after talking to teams, and others in the industry...... And Kiley didn't write them all...

I'm shocked at the Gibson ranking, given his health.

 

 

If some other team values Gibson that highly, then good for Gibson.

 

As for Twins, it ought to be a moot point. The max I'd offer Gibson would be zero; it's time to move on.

[DocBauer]

I have defended Gibson on several occasions and feel he's had a bad rap. But I am shocked at those rankings. I expect Gibson to go right up toward ST before finding a team. And I believe it will be a 1yr deal on the small side.

 

I've even wondered, if things go well this offseason for the Twins, but Pineda was part of the equation, would you throw a 1yr at Gibson for $6-7M to see if he can get and stay reasonably healthy.

 

Shaking my head on this.

[cardsfan]

What will Odo likely sign for? Isn't his WHIP a little high and he doesn't go into the 6th inning very often. He's from my area of the country, but, we haven't forgotten the Mike Leake signing. Here we don't have a bandbox so his numbers may look better here at home.

 

Some are talking about him depending on who will be our #4 and #5 starter.

 

Hard to believe Ozo will get more than 3 years and $45 million.

[dbminn]

And now MLBTradeRumors has posted their Top 50, with predicted ending spots and contracts. They have the Twins getting Bumgarner, Smith, Odorizzi and Howie Kendrick(!). I can't see signing Kendrick, even though I like the player.

 

Wheeler at 5/$100M... seems a bit much to me. Prices seem pretty high through the second tier - Bumgarner 4/$72M, Odo 3/$51M.

[Mike Sixel]

And now MLBTradeRumors has posted their Top 50, with predicted ending spots and contracts. They have the Twins getting Bumgarner, Smith, Odorizzi and Howie Kendrick(!). I can't see signing Kendrick, even though I like the player.

 

Wheeler at 5/$100M... seems a bit much to me. Prices seem pretty high through the second tier - Bumgarner 4/$72M, Odo 3/$51M.

Kendrick is probably as good as cron, and cheaper. Can also play other positions if needed besides first.