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2019 2020 (non-Twins) off season

Mike Sixel

By Mike Sixel
in Other Baseball

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Riverbrian Cooperstown

Riverbrian

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Explain why a player like Rendon or Strasberg would want to go to another team? If I were a player I would want to stay with a proven winner Unless I did not like my teamates (coworkers)....Does the $ really mean that much that you want to go to a bad team? I sincerely don't get it..thx!

 

It's the first chance in their career to have control over that career. 

 

They had no choice until now. They had to go to the team that drafted them. They were promoted at the clubs discretion, the CBA set their salary followed by the the Arbitrators. 

 

This is their first chance at actual leverage. 

 

If it was me... there is no way I'm giving that up... it took a long time to get it. This includes choosing to go back to the same organization. 

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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Explain why a player like Rendon or Strasberg would want to go to another team? If I were a player I would want to stay with a proven winner Unless I did not like my teamates (coworkers)....Does the $ really mean that much that you want to go to a bad team? I sincerely don't get it..thx!

 

5-10 million more per year matters, yes. This is their job, and the chance to make sure their heirs' heirs don't need to work if they don't want to.

 

But no bad team is going to pay the money needed for these older players. A team like the Padres might, because they should be good this coming year or next.....

 

also, this is the first time they get to choose where they live half the year....that would matter to me

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Riverbrian Cooperstown

Riverbrian

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J.D. Martinez does not opt out of his contract with the Red Sox. 

 

Owner John Henry has publicly expressed a desire to get under the competitive balance tax threshold. 

 

These two things are at odds with each other and should make Boston the team to watch this off-season. 

 

I think Betts will be dealt. 

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biggentleben GCL Twins

biggentleben

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The Braves did the exact same thing with Markakis. 

 

Both players get the same amount of money, each with the buy out of 2M and each with one year deals of 4M for a total of 6M. Picking up the options on each would have cost 6M a piece. 

 

So... I'm thinking... OK, by doing it this way, even though the players get the exact same money, they shave 4 million total of the payroll number. This makes sense, everyone should be happy. 

 

But, then I think some more... What does it matter if the payroll is 168 Million or 164 million? 

 

It occurs to me, that the only way the 4 million matters is if they get near the competitive balance threshold of 208 Million. If you are dancing near that line... the 4 million matters. 

 

These low level moves by the Braves to me... Is an announcement that the Braves plan on adding significant payroll this year. Around 70 Million potentially if my math is right. 

 

I think we can safely add the Braves to the Cole, Rendon and Strauburg discussion. Might be the strongest candidate to trade for Mookie Betts as well. 

 

No, there's not going to be a move to $200M+. That's not happening at all. What does matter is when you have a corporate owner and they have to have certain expenses on one fiscal year over another. The Braves have been making moves like this for years.

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biggentleben GCL Twins

biggentleben

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Not sure they'll get too much "value" out of a reliever with a $17.8 mil salary in 2020...

 

If he signs it, it'd be a bit nuts. It'd only give him one year of security. I would wager he'll make at least Adam Ottavino money this offseason. Even if it's less annual money, getting $40M guaranteed money over 3 years is much better for long-term security than one year of $17.8M.

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biggentleben GCL Twins

biggentleben

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Why would the White Sox offer a QO to Abreu? They can get that level of 1B production for A LOT less money....

 

mind. boggling. 

 

Unlike Will Smith who is one of a few relievers who is truly elite on the market, Abreu is among a lot of guys who can do what he does offensively at a corner IF or corner OF position. Without elite defense at first (which he does not have at all) or significant youth on his side (nope), a QO in the current qualifying offer market is potentially hurting the player and also not getting you back a pick as well.

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Mike Sixel Cooperstown

Mike Sixel

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Unlike Will Smith who is one of a few relievers who is truly elite on the market, Abreu is among a lot of guys who can do what he does offensively at a corner IF or corner OF position. Without elite defense at first (which he does not have at all) or significant youth on his side (nope), a QO in the current qualifying offer market is potentially hurting the player and also not getting you back a pick as well.

 

He'd be crazy not to take the money. 

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Riverbrian Cooperstown

Riverbrian

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No, there's not going to be a move to $200M+. That's not happening at all. What does matter is when you have a corporate owner and they have to have certain expenses on one fiscal year over another. The Braves have been making moves like this for years.

 

I feel for ya then... that's a self imposed bowling ball you have to hold. 

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Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

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If he signs it, it'd be a bit nuts. It'd only give him one year of security. I would wager he'll make at least Adam Ottavino money this offseason. Even if it's less annual money, getting $40M guaranteed money over 3 years is much better for long-term security than one year of $17.8M.

 

 

mlbtraderumors has Will Smith going to the Twins at 3/42.  Interesting, but more than I would pay a reliever over 30.  I also feel he will take the money.  

 

Could be. Of course, Ottavino only got 3/27, which probably isn't better than 1/17.8. And Ottavino didn't have a draft pick attached to him.

 

Smith is better than Ottavino, and a few years younger, so he may find a deal -- but it's not going to be easy in the current environment.

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SomeGuy Draft Eligible

SomeGuy

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Well playing the prediction game isn’t fun if they don’t come out of left field.

But if I were to analyze the take further, I guess I’d say their rotation is old, expensive and mediocre; it’s hard to see how that unit can improve and take the next step. They just let go of their WS winning manager. They have some good players who they’re either going to have to extend soon or watch walk away, but probably not enough good young players to make a sustainable run.

But mostly, they’re the third best team in their division and have an awful farm system. The two teams ahead of them, Milwaukee and St. Louis also have terrible farms; it might be a good idea to beat those two to the upswing in the ever fluid race to load up on young cheap talent.

I do think they make a couple trades but nothing close to "fire sale" status.  Epstein says they are not blowing it up. They view 2020 as a competitive season. 

 

They might trade one of Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras or Baez. 

 

My prediction is that Schwarber and one of the above are traded.  They would free up some money for FA and bring a lot of talent back.

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Riverbrian Cooperstown

Riverbrian

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Could be. Of course, Ottavino only got 3/27, which probably isn't better than 1/17.8. And Ottavino didn't have a draft pick attached to him.

 

Smith is better than Ottavino, and a few years younger, so he may find a deal -- but it's not going to be easy in the current environment.

My guess is (providing he stays sharp). He won’t finish the year in SF if he takes the QO.

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Vanimal46 MVP

Vanimal46

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He should take it, and yes, he'll be traded at the deadline.

I've got to imagine the prospect package will be lighter than last year (if they actually shopped him) don't you think? The contending team is picking up a hefty paycheck the rest of the season.

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ashbury Cooperstown

ashbury

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This could be a really fun exciting off-season!

Dan Shaughnessy in Sunday's Globe was busy informing Red Sox fans that Mookie Betts is overrated. He's basically a good journalist (with some detractors) but, considering Dan's longtime ties to the team, I interpret this as meaning the decision is made and Betts is as good as gone.

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Vanimal46 MVP

Vanimal46

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To me it really feels like Lindor will be moved. I hope he doesn't though, I think Cleveland will get a significantly lesser haul if they hold on to him and trade him with only one year of control left instead.

If I had to make a bet who out of that group gets traded this winter it's Lindor.

 

The Betts saga reminds me of when Falvey first came on board and shopped Dozier but couldn't find a good enough trade. It's difficult to just get hired and trade a star player. I think Bloom will take his time and explore the situation again in July.

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Riverbrian Cooperstown

Riverbrian

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To me it really feels like Lindor will be moved. I hope he doesn't though, I think Cleveland will get a significantly lesser haul if they hold on to him and trade him with only one year of control left instead.

I want Cleveland to tear it down now. The White Sox will replace them soon enough but for now, Let the Indians join the Tigers and Royals to give us a couple of years of minimal resistance in the AL Central.

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biggentleben GCL Twins

biggentleben

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On happier news, at least personally, the Braves have decided to forego a rotation for 2020, with their third bullpen signing. Technically, two are re-signings, but those two combined for roughly 4 months on field for the Braves.

 

Also, word I’ve been hearing a lot is not so much payroll number for Anthopolous this offseason, it’s remaining a certain number under luxury tax. I’ve heard that number as little as $30 million, which would mean a bump to $160-170 million for the Braves and certainly have them in the market for Donaldson plus a top starter (not named Stras or Cole) even with current signings and no significant non-tenders.

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