Front Page: 3 Pitchers Who Complement the Twins Defensive Strengths

[Matthew Lenz]

If the Twins are able to give big names at the top of the rotation, then these guys could be good fillers for very low cost. I completely agree...if the Twins headline the 2020 offseason with one of the three mentioned here, then we are in trouble.

 

We do have young arms, but are they for sure any more or less solid than these 3? A very small sample of starts and relief work doesn't sell it for me.

I keep looking at these lists and thinking - no that is not what we want.  We have the young talent that Wes Johnson can work with on the roster now (or soon) - if we are going to spend money it has to be for someone significantly better and none of these three would give us a better rotation.  Fly ball pitchers in a HR period just do not seem like the right solution.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Grossman was the best left fielder in the AL who played a minimum of 800 innings. Just a few years ago, he was the worst defensive outfielder in baseball. Last year, Eddie Rosario was the second best defensive left fielder in the AL who played a qualified amount of innings, but this year, the metrics were not as kind to him. The impact of defense is overvalued, since better positioning and player development is what has the most influence on being good in this category.

I think this speaks to just how bad defensive metrics are... 

[Matthew Lenz]

That's called a minor league contract. If they would agree to that, great, but I doubt they are at the point in their careers where they can only get a minor league deal.

I would sign all of them if they would agree to adding this line in their contract: "If, at any time time during Spring Training, the Minnesota Twins deem your performance as being not at the major league level, you will be released with no financial commitment being placed on the Twins." No harm in looking at them.

 

[Matthew Lenz]

Tom and I discussed Eddie's defense on Periscope...check it out!

Ok sure.   Pineda, Berrios, young arm.   That's three.  Who are the other two?   As far as Rosario goes, what makes him a bad outfielder?   Below average speed?  Bad routes?  Bad glove?    I used to think he was a great left fielder a few years ago.  What happened?

 

[Matthew Lenz]

 

What magic has Wes worked? Which starting pitcher was much better this year than last? Not Berrios,not Perez, not Odo, not really sure how to judge Pineda or Gibson.....

What evidence do we have about Johnson, really, other than Perez? Which is a tiny sample size.....

Odorizzi and Berrios posted the highest fWARs of their career. Once Pineda regained his velocity he was better than both Odorizzi and Berrios. Gibson was on pace for his highest fWAR season before ulcerative colitis derailed his season. This all seems really good, in my opinion.

[Matthew Lenz]

 

I guess with Rosario's defense is the same than with his hitting: He is so out of the Gauss bell, that is very difficult to judge. Sometimes he swings at pitches that he shouldn't swings... and a few times he hit them for home runs. Defending, sometimes he attempts throws that he shouldn't. And in one of those he nabs a guy that nobody else can. Of course, sometimes he throws the ball to nowhere. 

None of the defensive stats I've referenced rank/rate his "arm".

[Thegrin]

I trust the eye test. My eyes tell me that Eddie was OK this year.

-too often he tried to throw home, when he had no chance, and allowed a runner to move to second.

-His throws to home and to 2nd base were generally VERY accurate.

-too often he tried to catch a ball that was out of his range, which allowed runners to advance while the center fielder chased down the ball.

 

A little discipline here might go a long way.  Eddie, isn't superman and shouldn't try to be.

[Matthew Lenz]

 

Grossman was the best left fielder in the AL who played a minimum of 800 innings. Just a few years ago, he was the worst defensive outfielder in baseball. Last year, Eddie Rosario was the second best defensive left fielder in the AL who played a qualified amount of innings, but this year, the metrics were not as kind to him. The impact of defense is overvalued, since better positioning and player development is what has the most influence on being good in this category.

I'm curious what you're seeing that suggests that Grossman is the best LF in the AL? If you're using a gold glove as your only evidence, then I would recommend re-evaluating how you judge defenders in baseball. I'm not saying metrics and statistics are the end all be all, but I trust those wayyyy more than I trust the gold glove voting process. I know it's MLB coaches, but they're making their votes based on watching a player for at most 19 games and in majority of cases 3-7 times...assuming that the best defenders are in every game.

[Matthew Lenz]

 

I trust the eye test. My eyes tell me that Eddie was OK this year.

-too often he tried to throw home, when he had no chance, and allowed a runner to move to second.

-His throws to home and to 2nd base were generally VERY accurate.

-too often he tried to catch a ball that was out of his range, which allowed runners to advance while the center fielder chased down the ball.

 

A little discipline here might go a long way.  Eddie, isn't superman and shouldn't try to be.

Metrics and statistics definitely do not paint the whole picture. None of the ones that I have looked at take his "arm" into consideration, so he isn't be docked for how often he tried to throw home or the accuracy of his throws.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Ok sure. Pineda, Berrios, young arm. That's three. Who are the other two? As far as Rosario goes, what makes him a bad outfielder? Below average speed? Bad routes? Bad glove? I used to think he was a great left fielder a few years ago. What happened?

Your recollection is good, he was an above average fielder, until he lost both sprint speed and reaction speed.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/what-happened-to-eddie-rosario’s-defense-r8209

 

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/eddie-rosario-continued-to-trend-downward-in-2019-r8582

[DocBauer]

I figured this is what you were thinking and it really concerns me.     Why are people assuming we will keep Odorizzi (and Pineda).     I will feel much better when they are signed even if that is all we do.   Its not ideal but my fear is losing those two and replacing them with two lesser pitchers and still having to rely on Dobnak, Graterol to fill two spots.

 

I agree I will/would feel better with both already in the fold. But I think we are clearly in the driver's seat here, assuming offers are fair. Both have enjoyed their time here, vice versa from all that has been reported, and vague comments from both sides have already been spoken,. QO available to Odorizzi also can easily transition to an extended offer. IMO, Pineda is slightly less than Odorizzi as a "sure thing" for various reasons. But the money is absolutely there to get a fair deal done without compromising payroll at all for the "big get", whoever and how "big" that get turns out to be.

[DocBauer]

If Michael Pineda is truly your 5th best starting pitcher then you might have the best 1-4 in baseball history! I would love this!

I like your idea even better, lol, but to be fair, I really meant door #4 for Pineda and the kids filling the 5th spot.

[Hrbowski]

 

I'm curious what you're seeing that suggests that Grossman is the best LF in the AL? If you're using a gold glove as your only evidence, then I would recommend re-evaluating how you judge defenders in baseball. I'm not saying metrics and statistics are the end all be all, but I trust those wayyyy more than I trust the gold glove voting process. I know it's MLB coaches, but they're making their votes based on watching a player for at most 19 games and in majority of cases 3-7 times...assuming that the best defenders are in every game.

I do not trust the voting process for any awards. I am basing my comment off of defensive metrics, my own personal scouting, and insider knowledge in the game. Also, please do not be so patronizing as to suggest I reevaluate how I judge baseball defenders - I have professional experience doing just that.

[Matthew Lenz]

 

I do not trust the voting process for any awards. I am basing my comment off of defensive metrics, my own personal scouting, and insider knowledge in the game. Also, please do not be so patronizing as to suggest I reevaluate how I judge baseball defenders - I have professional experience doing just that.

You've made it clear that you don't judge based off awards, thus my comment about re-evaluating obviously don't apply to you.

 

I am still curious as to what defensive metrics you're looking at as I have scoured Fan Graphs and Baseball Savant but cannot find somewhere that would show he's the best LF In the AL. I understand your scouting and insider knowledge are probably off limits but I'm still not seeing a metric that would suggest that. Am I looking in the wrong places?

[Hrbowski]

 

You've made it clear that you don't judge based off awards, thus my comment about re-evaluating obviously don't apply to you.

 

I am still curious as to what defensive metrics you're looking at as I have scoured Fan Graphs and Baseball Savant but cannot find somewhere that would show he's the best LF In the AL. I understand your scouting and insider knowledge are probably off limits but I'm still not seeing a metric that would suggest that. Am I looking in the wrong places?

2nd highest DRS, highest UZR, and highest Def rating for American League left fielders with a minimum of 800 innings.

[Crackedfungo]

Eyeball test disputes many of the statistics.  The statistics reward more 'safe play' than aggressive play (throwing, diving, etc).  I would also add, with a player of Buxton's caliber next two either Eddie or Kep, more aggressiveness is warranted due to Buxton's ridiculous speed and angle to cover.  No one seems to ever bring up that Rosario (bad ankle and all) is on of ONLY TWO twins players in 20 years to bat over .276 with 30+ (32 homers) and 100+ RBI.  We need to be cognizant of these statistical contributions, his arm in the field, his bum ankle, his ability to play through pain and ignite the team, his importance in the clubhouse and in the clutch.  These things ALL matter FWIW.  No MLB fill-in, or Top AA prospect will deliver what Eddie can in the next 3 years. 

[Crackedfungo]

And Grossman is GROSS in the outfield.  How many years did your eyes tell you that?

[Dantes929]

 

People are figuring it because we have to. You can't roll into next season with Berrios and that's it. If you feel good just signing those 2, I think you will probably be let down again next season at the end of the year because you will be piecing together a rotation for a majority of the season again.

 

Twins need to find someone to pair with Berrios at the top and probably another guy to eat up innings at the bottom. Whether that's a diamond in the rough trade, a FA, or someone from the organization steps up, they will need to do something. 

I won't feel good about the rotation if we sign Odorizzi and Pineda but I will feel a lot better.    I have no illusions that we are going to sign Cole or Bumgarner.   The other names thrown out there are not as good as Odorizzi or Pineda.    I am ok with relying on our young guys and actually want us to rely on them to fill a spot, just not 4 or 3 spots and preferably not 2 spots.    I just feel like Dobnak, Schmeltzer and Graterol are just as good and potentially better than the guys listed in this post.   I thought Lynn and Odorizzi were very good signings in 2018 even though they didn't work out that year.  If we can find another guy like that along with Berrios, Odo, Pineda and Dobnak it will exceed my expectations and yeah, I would then feel pretty good about the rotation.

[Battle ur tail off]

I wouldn't feel good, but I am with you on those other guys. I would rather go big or go home. 

 

If we are signing guys like this to be our #4 and 5 starters, I would just as soon roll with someone in our system. I have said this all along. I think if you are going to bring in free agents, bring in high end guys. Fill the rest of your holes with your system. In this case, aim for guys that you think have the talent to be #3 or better pitchers whether it is in FA or trade. 

 

 

[prouster]

What magic has Wes worked? Which starting pitcher was much better this year than last? Not Berrios,not Perez, not Odo, not really sure how to judge Pineda or Gibson.....

 

What evidence do we have about Johnson, really, other than Perez? Which is a tiny sample size.....

Odorizzi improved by almost 2.0 fWAR and shaved almost a full run off his FIP. Berrios added 1.3 fWAR. Perez added 2.0 fWAR and shaved over a run off both his ERA and FIP. All of them got better. That’s probably not all on Wes Johnson, but he is a common denominator.

[Aerodeliria]

...you forgot Edwin Jackson. I'm sure he has a pretty high flyball rate...

 

Seriously, does anyone know how many games Pineda needs to sit if we resign him? I'm not putting that on the table as chip to resigning; I'm really just wondering.

 

I'd like to sign one ace, and the rest will fall into place. I would like this rotation: Veteran Ace, Berrios, Odorizzi (if we can), Pineda (if we can) or Dobnak (I'm still high on this guy. He reminds me a lot Yamaguchi of the Yomiuri Giants.)

[RedBull34]

Deleted.

[Doctor Wu]

 

I'm with you on Rosario.  He has thrown out more base runners than Keps or Buck, who are considered superior defenders. I think he gets a bum rap. But to be fair, he does sometimes take a bad route or make a bad read and balls drop that he should perhaps catch. But remember who we have put out in left.  Grossman, Arcia, Hammer, and a few infielders subbing in. And although Keps had a breakout year, it was Rosie that carried the team early last year. 

And let us not forget Delmon Young. Or maybe we should. By comparison, Rosario is a gold glove candidate.

[Doctor Wu]

Maybe Jordan Lyles is worth a look. Getting him away from Coors Field is bound to help both his stats and his confidence.

[nicksaviking]

I hadn't thought much of Lyles, I only remembered him as a high contact pitcher. Looks like both of his stints in Milwaukee the past two years have seen him at his best. Maybe he likes the air here in the upper mid-west. There's some Mike Minor similarities here.

[Penthang]

I would say go out and get one of those guys, whichever one the R&D staff thinks can be improved. Hopefully the twins are able to retain Odorizzi & Pineda. Hopefully the twins are able to sign one of the top four free agents. That along with the Berrios and one of the young guys fills the rotation until Pineda’s suspension is done. At that point the problem would probably sort itself out.