Front Page: 3 Pitchers Who Complement the Twins Defensive Strengths

[Matthew Lenz]

Despite Eddie Rosario being ranked as one of the worst outfielders in baseball, per Baseball Savant, the other two-thirds of the Twins outfield is one of the best in baseball. Let's take a deeper dive into three fly-ball pitchers on the free agent market who could complement the strengths of the Twins defense.Last week, I attempted to quantify the value of Byron Buxton's defense and joined Tom Froemming via Periscope to discuss several topics related to the outfield. Let's take a look at how that unit may impact how the Twins invest in their pitching staff.

 

Four names that will not require a deep dive as you are probably already pretty familiar with are Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Michael Pineda, and Jake Odorizzi. These four pitchers ranked in the top 50 in fly ball percentage in 2019, per FanGraphs, and I think any Twins fan would be happy to see them in uniform in 2020.

 

After the four mentioned above, the remaining fly ball free agent pitchers would be guys who the Twins might grab as a fourth of fifth starter in their 2020 rotation.

 

Jordan Lyles, RHP, 29 years old

In his last two seasons, where he has played for four different teams, Lyles had a fly ball rate of 39.4 percent and a dreadful 16.1 percent homerun per fly-ball rate. Prior to his last two seasons he was more of a ground ball pitcher, but he’s been relying more on his fastball and curveball while using his sinker significantly less. Part of me wonders if this is partly because of pitching at Coors for three plus years of his career. Lyles' peripherals aren’t attractive, but the former 38th overall pick is young and will be cheap if the Twins decide to spend big on other names. If Wes Johnson can work his magic and improve Lyles' control, then we could tap into what the Astros saw back when they drafted him in 2008.

 

Rick Porcello, RHP, 30 years old

How is Rick Porcello only 30-years-old? It’s crazy to think he was the game 163 starter for the Tigers back in 2009. Ten seasons and one Cy Young Award later, Porcello enters the 2020 free agent class after one of his worst seasons as a pro. That said, Porcello might fit right in with Baldelli’s philosophy with his starting pitchers as well as the Twins defense. In 2019, Porcello was significantly worse the third time through the batting order than he was the first two times. One indication is his home run per fly-ball rate went from average to awful, per FanGraphs, and his K/BB went from above average to awful. As Baldelli did with Odorizzi in 2019, the key to Porcello may be not to let him face the opponent a third time through the order.

 

Drew Smyly, LHP, 30 years old

Another former Tiger, Drew Smyly, is a cheap name the Twins could add to the bottom of their rotation. Smyly has struggled with injuries for much of his career, so much so that he did not make a major league appearance in 2017 or 2018 before being signed by the Phillies in late July of 2019. He’s always been an intriguing pitcher when healthy as he has the ability to strike out more than one batter per inning. In his return, he boasted an above average K/BB of 3.24 but had a dreadful 19.1 percent home run per fly-ball rate in 62 2/3 innings, per FanGraphs. Taking the small sample into consideration, the good news is that the K/BB is right around his career averages while the home run per fly-ball rate is significantly higher.

 

Of course none of the names above are the sexy names we are hoping the Twins will get, but at the end of the day the Twins need to find four guys who can take the ball every fifth day. Even the Houston Astros don’t have the sexiest of names as their fourth and fifth starters, but somebody has to do the job.

 

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[mikelink45]

I keep looking at these lists and thinking - no that is not what we want.  We have the young talent that Wes Johnson can work with on the roster now (or soon) - if we are going to spend money it has to be for someone significantly better and none of these three would give us a better rotation.  Fly ball pitchers in a HR period just do not seem like the right solution.

[DocBauer]

Good points but I will pass and take door #5 and resign Pineda.

 

For my 5th spot, I'm auditioning and rotating my young arms.

[terrydactyls]

I would sign all of them if they would agree to adding this line in their contract:

 

"If, at any time time during Spring Training, the Minnesota Twins deem your performance as being not at the major league level, you will be released with no financial commitment being placed on the Twins."

 

No harm in looking at them.

[Shaitan]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 1:38 PM, mikelink45 said:

I keep looking at these lists and thinking - no that is not what we want.  We have the young talent that Wes Johnson can work with on the roster now (or soon) - if we are going to spend money it has to be for someone significantly better and none of these three would give us a better rotation.  Fly ball pitchers in a HR period just do not seem like the right solution.

 

I think the HR period is going to suddenly disappear soon, just like it came. With MLB thinking nobody will notice the difference.

 

If they truly do go after a big budget free agent, they absolutely need the minor leaguers to step up. Every team needs the financial flexibility of young/cheap players.

[Dantes929]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 1:41 PM, DocBauer said:

Good points but I will pass and take door #5 and resign Pineda. For my 5th spot, I'm auditioning and rotating my young arms.

Ok sure.   Pineda, Berrios, young arm.   That's three.  Who are the other two?   As far as Rosario goes, what makes him a bad outfielder?   Below average speed?  Bad routes?  Bad glove?    I used to think he was a great left fielder a few years ago.  What happened?

[Kelly Vance]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 3:14 PM, Dantes929 said:

Ok sure.   Pineda, Berrios, young arm.   That's three.  Who are the other two?   As far as Rosario goes, what makes him a bad outfielder?   Below average speed?  Bad routes?  Bad glove?    I used to think he was a great left fielder a few years ago.  What happened?

I'm with you on Rosario.  He has thrown out more base runners than Keps or Buck, who are considered superior defenders. I think he gets a bum rap. But to be fair, he does sometimes take a bad route or make a bad read and balls drop that he should perhaps catch. But remember who we have put out in left.  Grossman, Arcia, Hammer, and a few infielders subbing in. And although Keps had a breakout year, it was Rosie that carried the team early last year. 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 3:14 PM, Dantes929 said:

Ok sure.   Pineda, Berrios, young arm.   That's three.  Who are the other two?   As far as Rosario goes, what makes him a bad outfielder?   Below average speed?  Bad routes?  Bad glove?    I used to think he was a great left fielder a few years ago.  What happened?

 

Ordorizzi and stud FA or trade guy, that's the other 2.

 

I agree with you on Rosario. I think he is a good outfielder. A bit of a stretch where he played poorly there might have altered his stats.

[MMMordabito]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 1:30 PM, Matthew Lenz said:

Four names that will not require a deep dive as you are probably already pretty familiar with are Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Michael Pineda, and Jake Odorizzi. These four pitchers ranked in the top 50 in fly ball percentage in 2019, per FanGraphs, and I think any Twins fan would be happy to see them in uniform in 2020.

 

I won't be happy to see Pineda in a Twins uniform.  He can go screw over another team.  Sorry to spoil the choice of adjective.

[DocBauer]

  On 10/30/2019 at 3:14 PM, Dantes929 said:

Ok sure. Pineda, Berrios, young arm. That's three. Who are the other two? As far as Rosario goes, what makes him a bad outfielder? Below average speed? Bad routes? Bad glove? I used to think he was a great left fielder a few years ago. What happened?

Battle beat me to it, but yeah, Odorizzi and a "still be acquired" round out the rotation with Berrios, Pineda and "prospect".

[Major League Ready]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 3:58 PM, Battle ur tail off said:

Ordorizzi and stud FA or trade guy, that's the other 2.

 

I agree with you on Rosario. I think he is a good outfielder. A bit of a stretch where he played poorly there might have altered his stats.

 

Rosario was one of the best players in the league the first half of 2018. Pitchers adjusted. Actually, they just don't throw anything over the plate and he has HORRIBLE plate discipline. Since the first half of 2018 he has been around replacement level. 

 

Fangraph Stats since 7/1/2018 --- Off / Def / WAR

 

1 Max Kepler 16.8 / 13.2 / 6.0
2 Jorge Polanco 23.4 / -4.4 / 5.4
3 Mitch Garver 28.4 / -1.2 / 4.5
4 Nelson Cruz 37.7 / -12.3 / 4.3
5 Miguel Sano 17.0 / -7.9 / 2.8
6 Byron Buxton 7.5 / 9.8 / 2.7
7 Jake Cave 9.3 / -3.9 / 2.3
8 Luis Arraez 13.4 / -4.8 / 2.1
9 Jason Castro 0.2 / 6.7 / 1.6
10 M. Gonzalez -3.8 / 2.2 / 1.4
11 J. Schoop -0.6 / -2.5 / 1.3
12 E. Rosario -3.1 / -13.3 / 1.3

13 E. Adrianza -6.7 / -1.7 / 1.2

 

Edited October 30, 2019 by Major League Ready

[DocBauer]

  On 10/30/2019 at 3:58 PM, Battle ur tail off said:

Ordorizzi and stud FA or trade guy, that's the other 2.

 

I agree with you on Rosario. I think he is a good outfielder. A bit of a stretch where he played poorly there might have altered his stats.

I'm with you on Rosario. I freely admit he makes a few really bad decisions once in a while, whether tracking-diving-overthrowing, but think he is a quality OF who more than makes up for a bad play with 2 or 3 really good ones.

 

I know what statistics say, but I know what I watch and see over the course of a season with him.

 

But for goodness sake, could he please stop snapping his glove on a catch?

[Mike Sixel]

What magic has Wes worked? Which starting pitcher was much better this year than last? Not Berrios,not Perez, not Odo, not really sure how to judge Pineda or Gibson.....

 

What evidence do we have about Johnson, really, other than Perez? Which is a tiny sample size.....

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't buy baseball savant saying Rosario is one of the worst OFs in baseball. He's got above average range and a cannon for an arm.. yeah, he makes a mistake or two... but not that many..

 

I'm guessing this is more a shortcoming to defensive metrics that cannot figure out how to deal with 3 above average defenders.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 5:01 PM, diehardtwinsfan said:

I don't buy baseball savant saying Rosario is one of the worst OFs in baseball. He's got above average range and a cannon for an arm.. yeah, he makes a mistake or two... but not that many..

 

I'm guessing this is more a shortcoming to defensive metrics that cannot figure out how to deal with 3 above average defenders.

 

There aren't any defensive stats that like him as an OFer......I doubt it's the math that is the problem here.

[AceWrigley]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 3:29 PM, Kelly Vance said:

But remember who we have put out in left.  Grossman, Arcia, Hammer, and a few infielders subbing in.

You mean the A's Robbie Grossman, LF finalist for a possible 2019 Gold Glove? Either he was sand bagging while with the Twins, or they had a guy in a Robbie Grossman suit chasing flyballs out there. I wonder if Target Field is hard to play defense in . . .

[adjacent]

I guess with Rosario's defense is the same than with his hitting: He is so out of the Gauss bell, that is very difficult to judge. Sometimes he swings at pitches that he shouldn't swings... and a few times he hit them for home runs. Defending, sometimes he attempts throws that he shouldn't. And in one of those he nabs a guy that nobody else can. Of course, sometimes he throws the ball to nowhere. 

[Dantes929]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 4:48 PM, Mike Sixel said:

What magic has Wes worked? Which starting pitcher was much better this year than last? Not Berrios,not Perez, not Odo, not really sure how to judge Pineda or Gibson.....

What evidence do we have about Johnson, really, other than Perez? Which is a tiny sample size.....

Not Odorizzi?    I thought he was better.    I also assume Johnson works with the relievers but I can't really say for sure what effect Johnson has had.    I do think coaches CAN and often do have more impact on a team than managers but it is really hard to judge the impact.   Consider that Rick Anderson was once considered a top pitching coach.    Hitting coaches have the same ambiguity.    They should have some positive impact or they shouldn't be employed.    However it is hard to believe that several years ago when our backup infielder was by far our best hitter and everyone else was performing at career worst levels and this year when we set offensive records that the difference is the hitting coach.   

[Dantes929]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 4:20 PM, DocBauer said:

Battle beat me to it, but yeah, Odorizzi and a "still be acquired" round out the rotation with Berrios, Pineda and "prospect".

I figured this is what you were thinking and it really concerns me.     Why are people assuming we will keep Odorizzi (and Pineda).     I will feel much better when they are signed even if that is all we do.   Its not ideal but my fear is losing those two and replacing them with two lesser pitchers and still having to rely on Dobnak, Graterol to fill two spots.  

[Dantes929]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 3:29 PM, Kelly Vance said:

I'm with you on Rosario.  He has thrown out more base runners than Keps or Buck, who are considered superior defenders. I think he gets a bum rap. But to be fair, he does sometimes take a bad route or make a bad read and balls drop that he should perhaps catch. But remember who we have put out in left.  Grossman, Arcia, Hammer, and a few infielders subbing in. And although Keps had a breakout year, it was Rosie that carried the team early last year. 

Add Delmon to the list. I never thought Grossman was bad but Gold Glove consideration?   

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 5:10 PM, Dantes929 said:

Not Odorizzi?    I thought he was better.    I also assume Johnson works with the relievers but I can't really say for sure what effect Johnson has had.    I do think coaches CAN and often do have more impact on a team than managers but it is really hard to judge the impact.   Consider that Rick Anderson was once considered a top pitching coach.    Hitting coaches have the same ambiguity.    They should have some positive impact or they shouldn't be employed.    However it is hard to believe that several years ago when our backup infielder was by far our best hitter and everyone else was performing at career worst levels and this year when we set offensive records that the difference is the hitting coach.   

 

I agree, I'm arguing we have no idea at this point what Wes Johnson is as a coach.....just no sample yet. Therefore, I'd prefer we sign guys that are already good.....just in case he's not a genius like we all hope.

 

edit: but we keep reading stuff like "can he work his magic"...when we just don't know if he has any

Edited October 30, 2019 by Mike Sixel

[markos]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 5:01 PM, diehardtwinsfan said:

I don't buy baseball savant saying Rosario is one of the worst OFs in baseball. He's got above average range and a cannon for an arm.. yeah, he makes a mistake or two... but not that many..

 

I'm guessing this is more a shortcoming to defensive metrics that cannot figure out how to deal with 3 above average defenders.

Baseball savant uses the statcast data that tracks player movement on the field. Rosario is not an above-average runner - his sprint speed as tracked by their system is below average for left fielders. Additionally, their catch probability is based on batted ball profile - the time the ball is in the air and the distance the fielder needs to run. So positioning and the presence of other defenders doesn't matter as much as with other defensive rating systems. 

[markos]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 4:48 PM, Mike Sixel said:

What magic has Wes worked? Which starting pitcher was much better this year than last? Not Berrios,not Perez, not Odo, not really sure how to judge Pineda or Gibson.....

What evidence do we have about Johnson, really, other than Perez? Which is a tiny sample size.....

Maybe overall results are debatable, but I don't think there is any question that Wes Johnson (or someone in the organization) has worked wonders when it comes to adding a tick or two to velocity.

2018 to 2019 Fastball velocity increases:

Odorizzi +1.8

Perez +1.4

Gibson +0.3

Berrios -0.4

 

Romero +1.6

May +1.5

Rogers +1.4

Duffey +1.0

Magill +0.6

[AceWrigley]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 5:16 PM, Dantes929 said:

Add Delmon to the list. I never thought Grossman was bad but Gold Glove consideration?   

I know, right? Delmon made Manny Ramirez look good.

[Hrbowski]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 5:16 PM, Dantes929 said:

Add Delmon to the list. I never thought Grossman was bad but Gold Glove consideration?   

Grossman was the best left fielder in the AL who played a minimum of 800 innings. Just a few years ago, he was the worst defensive outfielder in baseball. Last year, Eddie Rosario was the second best defensive left fielder in the AL who played a qualified amount of innings, but this year, the metrics were not as kind to him. The impact of defense is overvalued, since better positioning and player development is what has the most influence on being good in this category.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 7:05 PM, Hrbowski said:

Grossman was the best left fielder in the AL who played a minimum of 800 innings. Just a few years ago, he was the worst defensive outfielder in baseball. Last year, Eddie Rosario was the second best defensive left fielder in the AL who played a qualified amount of innings, but this year, the metrics were not as kind to him. The impact of defense is overvalued, since better positioning and player development is what has the most influence on being good in this category.

 

Of course, the newest fielding stats take into account positioning.....

 

And yes, defensive stats often fluctuate  A LOT more than hitting ones, year to year......Rosario could be good again on D, but believing he was good last year is just denial.

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 7:41 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

I'm a big believer in analytics and statistics, but it's just very hard to trust the defensive analytics when a guy like Rosario is above average one year and "one of the worst" the next year. I think the wild fluctuations show that there is a very subjective element to the ratings that causes misinformation. Having said that, even the eye test tells us that Rosario wasn't as good on D in 2019 as he was in 2018. We also know that he had an ankle injury for a lot of the second half last year.

 

Bottom line, he's out 2020 LF unless/until he's traded. I don't think a trade is likely because he won't bring us a SP and that's what we need. I for one am glad he's probably staying. Most clutch hitter on the team and seems to be a good team leader. I think we need him. IF we need to trade an OF to get pitching, I would trade Buxton, although that's selling low and probably a bad idea, or Kepler.    

 

i can't see how a team on a mid-market budget keeps Rosario over time, and deals Kepler.....

[Battle ur tail off]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 5:14 PM, Dantes929 said:

I figured this is what you were thinking and it really concerns me.     Why are people assuming we will keep Odorizzi (and Pineda).     I will feel much better when they are signed even if that is all we do.   Its not ideal but my fear is losing those two and replacing them with two lesser pitchers and still having to rely on Dobnak, Graterol to fill two spots.  

 

People are figuring it because we have to. You can't roll into next season with Berrios and that's it. If you feel good just signing those 2, I think you will probably be let down again next season at the end of the year because you will be piecing together a rotation for a majority of the season again.

 

Twins need to find someone to pair with Berrios at the top and probably another guy to eat up innings at the bottom. Whether that's a diamond in the rough trade, a FA, or someone from the organization steps up, they will need to do something. 

 

 

 

[Matthew Lenz]

If Michael Pineda is truly your 5th best starting pitcher then you might have the best 1-4 in baseball history! I would love this!

  On 10/30/2019 at 1:41 PM, DocBauer said:

Good points but I will pass and take door #5 and resign Pineda. For my 5th spot, I'm auditioning and rotating my young arms.

 

[Matthew Lenz]

 

  On 10/30/2019 at 7:41 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

I'm a big believer in analytics and statistics, but it's just very hard to trust the defensive analytics when a guy like Rosario is above average one year and "one of the worst" the next year. I think the wild fluctuations show that there is a very subjective element to the ratings that causes misinformation. Having said that, even the eye test tells us that Rosario wasn't as good on D in 2019 as he was in 2018. We also know that he had an ankle injury for a lot of the second half last year.

I know there are many metrics to look at in terms and defensive performance, but most metrics suggest that Eddie has been below average since 2017 and has been getting worse each season.