Front Page: 4 Off-the Radar Pitching Trade Targets for the Twins

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

"The financial flexibility is there, with plenty of impact talent to be had."

 

Somewhat off topic, but while i agree with the first part of that statement, not so much the second. Cole is out there, and possibly Strasburg.

 

Am I missing "impact" free agent starters, beyond that?  

 

And let's be honest, the Twins aren't going to sign either of those two. 

 

So trades will need to occur. "Off the radar" trades are probably the most likely to happen.

 

I like the idea of getting Archer cheaply, if he continues to struggle, you're not out a ton, if he returns to form, or can be fixed, you've got your impact starter.

 

I think the struggle I have with this is that a guy like Archer isn't going to get fixed in ST... You're going to have to endure some painful starts for months quite possibly before things get figured out...

 

For a contending team, that's a pretty big ask, as games will be thrown away. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Graterol has the potential to be better than all of them - yes.  This is not vintage Kershaw.  This is Kershaw on the down side of his career and no one knows how he will adapt.  I will take our player with huge upside.

 

"has the potential" is about 10000x different than "is better than"......

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Is Big Sexy available? 

[Nick Nelson]

 

This is the first time I have regretted clicking on an article at Twins Daily. Paddack and Kershaw? You guys are way better than this.

Sorry to hear that. Just trying to generate some fun discussion as we wait for the offseason to actually get started. If you want, you can submit some of your own names and rationales here in the comments. I bet people will be nicer to you even if they find 'em implausible!

[Nick Nelson]

 

also John Gray from Colorado would be a good trade option. Colorado will want groundball pitchers back in a trade. So which Minor Leaguers do we have that do that? Enlow? Balazovich? And Tyler Wells maybe?

I've heard his name mentioned a lot, but I guess I just don't see why the Rockies would trade Gray. They don't exactly come up with pitchers of his caliber often. 

[IndianaTwin]

 

At some point, if you're too generous in grading "potential", it's not so meaningful. Graterol has promise, but he isn't quite Mackenzie Gore either, and it sure looks like Graterol is going to be limited to 140 IP max in 2020, which restricts his immediate utility to the Twins a bit.

 

That said, I don't advocate trading him with reckless abandon either. But he's not untouchable.

 

Have you heard the 140 IP limit "officially" referenced in relation to Graterol? Or just making that assumption based on past patterns? 

 

(If the latter, I don't disagree with you, and I'd probably make a similar guess -- I'm just curious if there have been actual statements to that effect.)

 

 

 

[Tomj14]

 

Archer is not going to move the needle that much on the rotation. His value is in chewing up innings while giving you a chance to win, but he's never been dominant. He's really only had one really good season (2015) and has gotten progressively worse every year since. he's a full year older than odorizzi, but in their 8 years in MLB they've been almost exactly as valuable. Archer pitches more innings, odorizzi is more effective in the innings he pitches. I think you have to look at someone like Archer as a pitcher who likely shores up the back end as a 4th starter and you're putting a lot of faith that Wes Johnson can work some magic with him to get more than that. The contract is fine, but are you going to get better results than what you might from an internal option?

 

 

 

What if the Twins told him to go all out for 5 innings (like Odo seems to do), would he? could he? be better than Odo?

I don't know the answer, but it seems like looking just a whip, his numbers might be worse because of those extra inning.

He is not in my top few guys I would like, but I think for the right price he isn't a horrible idea.

Edited October 28, 2019 by Tomj14

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Have you heard the 140 IP limit "officially" referenced in relation to Graterol? Or just making that assumption based on past patterns? 

 

(If the latter, I don't disagree with you, and I'd probably make a similar guess -- I'm just curious if there have been actual statements to that effect.)

No, I haven't seen anything official -- but I don't think they generally announce anything official about these things either. (And with good reason -- they don't want to box themselves in.)

 

FWIW, while he didn't directly cite any sources, Lavelle recently wrote "Even if he’s stretched out to start next season, he would be on an innings limit":

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-thinking-aggressively-when-assessing-roster-needs-free-agent-market/562665252/

 

Given his career to date, I'd be pretty surprised if Graterol exceeded 140 inning in 2020.

[Mike Sixel]

 

No, I haven't seen anything official -- but I don't think they generally announce anything official about these things either. (And with good reason -- they don't want to box themselves in.)

 

FWIW, while he didn't directly cite any sources, Lavelle recently wrote "Even if he’s stretched out to start next season, he would be on an innings limit":

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-thinking-aggressively-when-assessing-roster-needs-free-agent-market/562665252/

 

Given his career to date, I'd be pretty surprised if Graterol exceeded 140 inning in 2020.

 

While I agree it is unlikely he doesn't go much beyond that......there is no evidence of the Verducci effect being real.....and if Gaterol is healthy and a starter, he should pitch as many innings as they need him to. But, most teams are risk adverse by nature, and follow the rule to a large degree.

[Ben Noble]

 

Boston needs SP too. I don't think they'd throw in cash with Price unless they got some good prospects / cheap talent in return.

 

And we have plenty of good prospects in the pipeline to trade. Boston definitely isn't getting rid of Price as a straight salary dump, but I think the Twins have the prospect capital and budget space to acquire him, sign a top FA pitcher and still keep the top end of the farm system in good shape. 

[Mike Sixel]

I think Price is a realistic trade candidate, that the Twins could get. I am unsure how I feel about that, due to his health and decline (though the decline could easily reverse, imo).

[IndianaTwin]

 

No, I haven't seen anything official -- but I don't think they generally announce anything official about these things either. (And with good reason -- they don't want to box themselves in.)

 

FWIW, while he didn't directly cite any sources, Lavelle recently wrote "Even if he’s stretched out to start next season, he would be on an innings limit":

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-thinking-aggressively-when-assessing-roster-needs-free-agent-market/562665252/

 

Given his career to date, I'd be pretty surprised if Graterol exceeded 140 inning in 2020.

 

Thanks. 

 

So what might that look like? Good as he's looked, I don't think there's a realistic likelihood he starts in the major league rotation with only 5.1 IP in Rochester to date and 9.2 IP with the Twins, none of them in a start. I also don't want to see him start the season in the bullpen.

 

So how about something like about 18+ so starts at Rochester, targeting about 100 IP? For context, he had 47.2 IP in 9 starts this year, so that's a smidge longer outings. (With the new 26th man on the roster full time, will teams still get to add a player for a DH. If so, I could see him using a start or so that way if the opportunity arises). And obviously, if he's pitching lights out and the need arises at the big club, you consider him in the context of your other options. 

 

That takes you to around July 10-15. At that point, assuming he's earned it and the team is in contention, consider bringing him to the majors for the final 40 innings or so. If he hasn't or they aren't, go ahead and fill out the 140 or so with minor league starts.  

 

 

[twinkiesfan11]

San Diego’s rumored asking price for Kirby Yates (a reliever who probably doesn’t fit their window) was astronomically high so I have a hard time picturing them trading Paddack at all, much less for a palatable price. He’s very impressive but I wouldn’t trade Royce Lewis for him straight up personally.

 

I just don’t see a fit for Kershaw and not sure I’d be interested if he were indeed available.

 

The Reds seem to believe they’re on the cusp and their pitching coach has a long history with Sonny Gray. Not sure what would motivate them to trade him or at least not at an attractive price.

 

Archer I find very intriguing. He flopped as soon as he left Tampa so maybe a return to an analytically savvy organization could help him bounce back. Pittsburgh is a bit of a **** show at the moment with the manager, pitching coach, GM and President all getting fired so now could be a great opportunity to make a low ball trade offer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thanks. 

 

So what might that look like? Good as he's looked, I don't think there's a realistic likelihood he starts in the major league rotation with only 5.1 IP in Rochester to date and 9.2 IP with the Twins, none of them in a start. I also don't want to see him start the season in the bullpen.

 

So how about something like about 18+ so starts at Rochester, targeting about 100 IP? For context, he had 47.2 IP in 9 starts this year, so that's a smidge longer outings. (With the new 26th man on the roster full time, will teams still get to add a player for a DH. If so, I could see him using a start or so that way if the opportunity arises). And obviously, if he's pitching lights out and the need arises at the big club, you consider him in the context of your other options. 

 

That takes you to around July 10-15. At that point, assuming he's earned it and the team is in contention, consider bringing him to the majors for the final 40 innings or so. If he hasn't or they aren't, go ahead and fill out the 140 or so with minor league starts.  

That sounds about right.

 

I'd like to see something like the Lance McCullers Jr. plan circa 2015 -- he's going to start in the minors, so just give him shorter starts and a lot of time between starts down there early in the season. If he's really good, bring him up -- but be ready to ease back on him as needed, maybe even sending him back down again for rest or putting him on the IL.

 

I don't know if that's enough to keep him under 140 (McCullers finished with 164, including postseason), but we don't really need a firm 140 limit anyway.

 

That said, given his health history (Graterol has already had TJ surgery, plus shoulder trouble), he may be on the IL enough -- or we may find ourselves backing off enough -- to keep him under 140 anyway.

[mikelink45]

 

"has the potential" is about 10000x different than "is better than"......

Yes and in this case I will take potential.  Kershaw and Price are on their downside.  I am betting on Graterol. 

[Tomj14]

 

Yes and in this case I will take potential.  Kershaw and Price are on their downside.  I am betting on Graterol. 

I would take a bet that Kershaw will be better than Graterol for at least the next 4 years, and Price the next two.

It would take way more than Graterol to get Kershaw, but I would still bet the production of Kershaw or Graterol and the "way more" for two years. 

Not sure what the price for Price is but I wouldn't trade Graterol for him, even though I think Price will be a more productive major league pitcher than him for the next two years.

[MMMordabito]

Twins will sign someone like Homer Bailey and trade for someone like Marco Gonzalez. That's about all we'll see added.

 

I like buying low on Archer, but I don't think the Pirates will offer him up low enough.

 

The other three will be too expensive in either prospects or actual money (Kershaw).

 

I just won't believe in a splash until I see it.   What's the most salary the Twins have taken on in a trade?  I know they haven't ever spent more than $50 mill and change on an FA (Santana or Nolasco were the highest, IIRC).

[tarheeltwinsfan]

You never know if a trade can be made unless you propose it and work at it. (April 17, 1960 the Tigers trade Harvey Kuenn, 1959 AL batting champ, at .353  for Cleveland's Rocky Colavito, 1959 AL HR champ with 42 bombas). Who'd a thunk it? 

[Nick Nelson]

 

This really sums up the problem in adding "impact" starting pitching. The good ones like Cole are 6 year/200m investments. Moreover, they aren't coming to Minnesota for the most part because of affinities elsewhere even if the Twins were willing to pay.  

That's the problem in adding impact starting pitching via free agency. Which is the premise of this article! The Astros got Cole for 2 years and $20 million. The Red Sox got Sale for 3 years and $40 million before they extended him. Trades are where the value is found. 

 

If you think 3 of the 4 guys in the article are nonstarters, I won't argue with you. You're probably right. But the point is that the Twins should aim high, and be open to giving up a "king's ransom" for the right player.

[DocBauer]

That's the problem in adding impact starting pitching via free agency. Which is the premise of this article! The Astros got Cole for 2 years and $20 million. The Red Sox got Sale for 3 years and $40 million before they extended him. Trades are where the value is found. 

 

If you think 3 of the 4 guys in the article are nonstarters, I won't argue with you. You're probably right. But the point is that the Twins should aim high, and be open to giving up a "king's ransom" for the right player.

 

I absolutely agree with this, and the premise of the entire OP. And as I've stated a couple times, I think Odorizzi is back in some fashion. Makes too much sense for both parties. I still feel Pineda is back for pretty much the same reason, though his situation is a bit more gray, no pun intended. That still leaves another very important acquisition that needs to take place.

 

I've said several times I'm 50/50 on a FA vs an impact trade. The biggest problem is, the FO, the analytics department Rocco and Johnson aren't going to share their viewpoints on ANY of the proposed additions until they actually make a move. Nor should they be expected to do so.

 

I don't see Kershaw being offered up. I just don't.

 

Same with Paddack. The Padres appear pretty close and have a lot of young talent.

 

I don't really follow the Reds, but from the outside, I'm not sure I know what they are doing. I'm not convinced they do either. Gray could be available for a quality package and intrigues me.

 

I'm buy low on Archer. I could be way off base, but he always struck me as big arm with big SO numbers that never reached the next level. Is that because of playing for some not so great teams or just hadn't taken the next step or what? Seems the Pirates lost in the deal to get him. Would they be willing to just move on for a handful of quality prospects at this point? Or would they be more inclined to hire a new pitching coach and see what 2020 brings?

 

 

[alphanumeric]

 

The FAs we need to re-sign for next year are right in front of us - Odorizzi and Pineda. Sign those 2, add Berrios, try to get 1 FA like Kuechel or Wheeler, or with Chris Archer,  and fill the #5 spot with a guy like Thorpe, Smeltzer or Dobnak. Re-sign Gibson if we can't get a FA starter. Perez stays only if we can't get one of the other 3.

 

That's my prediction for the off-season SP moves.   

And the Yanks will take us out behind the wood shed again next October

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I think Price is a realistic trade candidate, that the Twins could get. I am unsure how I feel about that, due to his health and decline (though the decline could easily reverse, imo).

 

I'd be against it, unless he could be had for a 2nd tier prospect and would be looked upon by the Twins as a back of the rotation starter. He might be used up.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

 He’s very impressive but I wouldn’t trade Royce Lewis for him straight up personally.
 

 

I would all day long. Why wouldn't you? He'a got the chance to be the ACE you need and he's young. Could pair with Berrios for a long time. Lewis still a question mark, he might not every be anything at all. 

 

Padres won't trade him but if it were straight up for Lewis, Twins would be foolish not to accept that IMO.

[twinkiesfan11]

I would all day long. Why wouldn't you? He'a got the chance to be the ACE you need and he's young. Could pair with Berrios for a long time. Lewis still a question mark, he might not every be anything at all.

 

Padres won't trade him but if it were straight up for Lewis, Twins would be foolish not to accept that IMO.

I know the Pads wouldn’t do that trade. I’m admittedly very high on Royce and believe he’s going to rebound in a big way in 2020.

 

Love Paddack but as a mostly two pitch pitcher with some durability issues in his past I feel his upside may be limited slightly, enough that I think Royce will be more valuable.