Front Page: 4 Off-the Radar Pitching Trade Targets for the Twins

[Nick Nelson]

Free agency is clearly an avenue the Twins need to explore this offseason in their efforts to upgrade the rotation. The financial flexibility is there, with plenty of impact talent to be had. But if the American League's recent history is any indication, it is the trade market that's most instrumental to building a championship-caliber rotation.

 

What opportunities await Minnesota on this front?The Astros have assembled a two-headed monster atop their rotation through trades, acquiring both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Last year's World Series champs, the Red Sox, landed their ace Chris Sale in a deal with Chicago. Boston's 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello was also a trade pickup, but that year it was Cleveland winning the AL pennant, led by trade acquisitions Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Previously, James Shields pitched the Royals into a World Series after coming over from Tampa.

 

Free agents and internally developed talent have played a part too, of course, but it's fair to say that trades have been massively influential in building the rotations that are running the league over the past half-decade.

 

In the 2020 Offseason Handbook (now available for preorder!), Jeremy Nygaard presents cases for 16 different players (mostly starting pitchers) the Twins could target via trade in the coming months. There are plenty of logical names on his list, and I'm sure we'll be hearing several of them discussed repeatedly as the offseason gets underway.

 

Today, I'm going to dig a little deeper and highlight four players who aren't on his list, and aren't being mentioned much in connection with the Twins generally. It might be a stretch to believe some of these players are available (particularly the last one), but then again, if there's a will there's a way.

 

4 OUTSIDE-THE-BOX TWINS ROTATION TARGETS

Chris Paddack, RHP

Team: Padres

2019 Stats: 146 IP, 3.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9

Contract Status: Under team control through 2024

 

Most of the names covered here will be established veteran players, whose value lies in their immediate and short-term impact potential. Paddack, conversely, is more of a big-picture target – the kind that jibes with this front office's thinking. He was ranked by MLB.com as the 34th-best prospect in baseball ahead of the 2019 campaign, and dubbed by Prospects Live as a future ace. Paddack looked the part as a 23-year-old rookie for the Padres, posting those numbers you see above.

 

You might read those numbers, in combination with the five remaining years of team control, and ask, "Why on Earth would San Diego even think about trading this guy?" It's a fair question. Fresh off signing Manny Machado to a $300 million mega-deal, the Padres are not in the business of shipping off key pieces and rebuilding endlessly.

 

Thing is, even with Machado, they still finished in last place in 2019 with one of the league's least potent offenses – both familiar scenarios. Despite routinely sporting solid-to-great pitching staffs, the Padres can't escape the NL West cellar, in large part because they haven't had a 700-run season in more than a decade. They need offensive firepower, and with Machado and Eric Hosmer consuming a huge portion of payroll for the next many years, they need it at controllable cost. The Twins can help in that area.

 

Start with Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, or Byron Buxton. Perhaps even dangle Max Kepler and his highly attractive contract, if the Padres demand proven production and durability. Throw in another top-tier prospect or two and you've got a valid offer for Paddack at the very least. The price will hurt, but he could be a franchise-altering addition for the Twins.

 

Sonny Gray, RHP

Team: Reds

2019 Stats: 175.1 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9

Contract Status: Signed through 2022 ($10M/yr) w/ $12M option in 2023

 

 

 

 

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Photo by David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Formerly a young rotation-fronter for the A's, Gray took a major step back from 2016 through 2018, posting a 4.59 ERA and 1.38 WHIP during a three-year period that included a tumultuous stint in New York. The Yankees dealt him to Cincinnati in January with his value depressed, and the deal proved to be a coup for the Reds. In the National League, Gray returned to form and then some.

 

He posted a career-high strikeout rate, made the All-Star team, and held opponents to a .196 batting average (.165 in the second half). Best of all, he remains under control at a reasonable rate for three more years. Yep, the Reds did quite well for themselves, and now they could complete the act by selling high after buying low.

 

Cincinnati's 26-year-old rotation centerpiece, Luis Castillo, probably isn't going anywhere, but the club might be open to listening on the historically volatile Gray, who has three (cost-efficient) years left on his deal. He underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in September, which adds to his uncertainty. The operation was considered minor, and if he continues to pitch like he did this year, the righty makes a quality complement to Berrios afront the rotation, while also leaving plenty of flexibility to commit big dollars to a top free agent who can slot ahead of them.

 

Gray won't come cheap in prospect capital. If Eddie Rosario is in the package, it's as no more than an add-on. You'll need to be ready to part with good young talent to sway the Reds, who will surely have multiple bidders if they make Gray available. Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach might need to be in play.

 

Chris Archer, RHP

Team: Pirates

2019 Stats: 119.2 IP, 5.19 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9

Contract Status: Club options for 2020 ($9M) and 2021 ($11M)

 

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Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Whereas the Twins would be buying high on Gray, the opposite is true of Archer. Pittsburgh gave up big prospect talent to acquire him from Tampa in July of 2018, and the move has been nothing short of disastrous for them. Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows, whom the Pirates gave up in the swap, are emerging as young stars for the Rays. Archer has been sub-mediocre for Pittsburgh. A cautionary tale for a team like the Twins, to be sure.

 

But Archer's still got some game in him, provided he can get past the shoulder inflammation that shut him down in September. At 31, he's far from ancient. He still brings heat in the mid-90s regularly, with a dirty slider, and struck out 27% of the batters he faced in 2019. (Michael Pineda led Twins starters at 23%.) I'd be curious to see what Wes Johnson and Company could do with him.

 

Much like Gray, Archer has a very appealing contract, with two years of optional control at below-market rates. Unlike Gray, he likely wouldn't cost one of Minnesota's most coveted prospects. You'll have to do enough to entice Pittsburgh, naturally, but coming off a last-place finish the Pirates should be open-minded.

 

Clayton Kershaw, LHP

Team: Dodgers

2019 Stats: 178.1 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9

Contract Status: Signed through 2021 ($31M/yr)

 

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Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Okay. This one may seem like a reach. A healthy Clayton Kershaw has an argument as the best pitcher in the game, and maybe in modern history. He's already a Hall of Fame lock at age 31. And the championship-thirsty Dodgers have him under control for another two years. Would Los Angeles even dream of listening on this legendary southpaw?

 

Maybe not. Probably not. But hear me out. The Dodgers have one sole aspiration that overrides all else: winning a World Series. The franchise hasn't hoisted a trophy since the Kirk Gibson Series in 1988. It's not for a lack of spending or trying. They've gone to the playoffs seven straight years, and continually come up empty in their quest. Despite the unparalleled excellence of Kershaw over this entire span, they just keep on falling short.

 

And as weird as it is to say for an eight-time All-Star, three-time Cy Young winner, former MVP, etc.: Kershaw has himself been somewhat culpable. His body hasn't held up of late, as he's missed time in each of the past four seasons (albeit never hugely significant time). More pertinently, he has failed to match his regular-season dominance in October, and most recently he gave up back-to-back homers in the most crucial of Game 5 spots to effectively punch LA's ticket for an early exit in the NLDS.

 

No one is gonna be fooled by this unfortunate blip, or by Kershaw's "career-worst" season (quotes added to emphasize the relativity of this statement), into thinking he's anything less than a premier starting pitcher in the game. The cost to acquire him would be off-the-charts – we're probably talking Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, as a starting point.

 

But, I dunno. if you're the Dodgers, and you have a chance to make that deal while reinvesting Kershaw's salary into signing Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg... don't you do it? And if you're the Twins, ready to push your chips in, confident in your ability to develop more future stars... don't you do it?

 

Kershaw is a legend in Los Angeles. Rightfully so. But the city's faith in him has to be at an all-time low right now. And the Dodgers are primed for a big shakeup of some sort this winter. They've been attempting to ride Kershaw to a championship unsuccessfully for a decade, and now might represent their last chance to recoup maximum value in a trade before he returns to free agency.

 

The Twins would need to be supremely confident in Kershaw's ability to sustain ace-like performance, and keep his chronic back issues at bay. But if so, and the Dodgers are actually open to such an idea, this is an opportunity you can't pass up. Right?

 

Share your thoughts in the comments and keep the discussion going by sharing your favorite outside-the-box pitching trade targets for the Twins. Why might they be available? What would it realistically take to acquire them?

 

It's a good way to warm ourselves up for the 2020 Offseason Handbook, which those who preorder will receive this week!

 

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[old nurse]

Sonny can't pitch in New York. That makes him a perfect Twin and why he shoul not be traded for

[old nurse]

If you can get Paddack for Graterol, one of the outfielders and a couple of the 40 fv prospects, sure.

[old nurse]

Archer would be buy low. Why would the team want a 4th starter except if there was no other option?

[old nurse]

Kershaw would cost starters. Graterol and Balazaviv. Likely Colina.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Kershaw would cost starters. Graterol and Balazaviv. Likely Colina.

Probably true. I'm not entirely closed off to that route. It depends on how much you trust the systems the Twins have put in place to continually develop that pipeline. Parker has a really great story in the Handbook exploring the transformation that's taken place. Count me as a believer. 

[Brandon]

Kershaw isn't going anywhere. But another ace who could be available is David Price. He has three years left on his contract and spent most of his career in the AL East. Since Boston would welcome the trade the Twins wouldn't have to give up too much. But Boston would need to pay some of the remainder of the contract maybe $21 million making his remaining contract a three year $25 million per year which is a fair salary for him at this stage.

[Linus]

I would give up any prospects for Paddack except Graterol. This includes Lewis and Kirilloff

[Brandon]

also John Gray from Colorado would be a good trade option. Colorado will want groundball pitchers back in a trade. So which Minor Leaguers do we have that do that? Enlow? Balazovich? And Tyler Wells maybe?

[mikelink45]

Hy Kershaw. We already know how to lose in post season. We do not need him.

 

Graterol is better than all of them. No to any trade that has him in it.

 

Archer? Why? Forget him and all but the first one on the list. No

[mlhouse]

I can see approaching a team for a trade for Archer or Gray, but I am certainly not going to pay a premium price for either of them.   

 

I would offer them a package of 2nd tier prospects were the best player would be Blake Enlow.  Maybe Enlow, Brent Rooker, and Ryan Jeffers.

 

If they acquire Gray, then the rotation should be Berrios, Gray, a resigned Odorizzi, hand the 4th starter to Graterol no matter what, and a 5th starter salad bar of Smeltzer, Dobnak, or Thorpe with the one who has worked the hardest going north the winner.

 

If they don't acqire a similar pitcher, then Berrios, Odorizzi, Graterol, a veteran FA signing similar to Pineda, and the 5th starter selection.

[ashbury]

The Pirates fired their pitching coach. That suggests they would not be very eager to part with Archer cheaply - better (from their POV) to let their new coach try and bring out his best, than to let the Twins' coach try. I imagine Archer could be pried from Pittsburgh, but at the cost of one of our top prospects, like other trade targets mentioned.

[rv78]

If the Dodgers can't win it all with Kershaw why does anyone think the Twins could?

 

AND, Why does anyone think it would be wise to go after someone who has failed and then in the same breath say it would give the team you are trading with the opportunity to add 1 of 2 pitchers who might be better?

So in theory you are saying the Dodgers would get the Twins 2 best prospects plus a Cole or Strasburg for Kershaw. Wouldn't it make more sense for the Twins to bypass Kershaw and go after Cole or Strasburg themselves? A trade like you suggest would help the Dodgers, not the Twins.

 

Paddock would be an interesting addition. Gray will be too expensive.

Archer would be right up the Twins alley. Good pitcher coming off a down season could be had for much cheaper pieces.

 

#1.I wouldn't trade Lewis, Kirilloff or Graterol for anyone at this point.

#2.Buxton can't play a full season so he'd be the most available as far as top talent, (and I'm saying that lightly), as far as I'm concerned.

#3.You have to keep Kepler. Best outfielder the Twins have.

#4.Rosario is expendable as well but you can't trade him and Buxton both without getting someone decent to fill their spots. Wade, Cave, Arraez, Astudillo won't cut the mustard in the outfield on a daily basis. Kirilloff and Larnach are probably a year away.

#5.Twins have a butt load of young pitchers that we've all seen that could be moved. Gonsalves, Stewart, Dejong, Romero, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Littell, Stashak, ..... Which one isn't replacable? Maybe someone would take all 9 for an Ace?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not sure I'd touch Archer at all... 

[Mike Sixel]

Hy Kershaw. We already know how to lose in post season. We do not need him.

 

Graterol is better than all of them. No to any trade that has him in it.

 

Archer? Why? Forget him and all but the first one on the list. No

Gaterol, who has zero MLB starts, is better than any of them? Wow.

[Mike Sixel]

Kershaw is not going anywhere. Paddock? No chance. The Padres are loaded on the farm. You'd have to trade two MLB starters and a good minor league player to even start a conversation. No chance he's being traded. He's going to be in his prime when they are good. Seriously bad take.

 

The other two? Possible, but not in love with Archer at all.

Edited October 28, 2019 by Mike Sixel

[Doctor Wu]

If the Twins want to compete next year (as in winning the division and actually winning a playoff game or three) they absolutely NEED to acquire at least two more high-end starters, or at least ones who could become such a beast ASAP. I have no hope or faith the Twins will be able to compete on the free agent market for such arms. Thus, I think going "off the radar" as this article suggests, either by trades or savvy free agent signings, is the only way to go. But the only remotely attainable name on the above list I think is Chris Archer, and I fear he could be damaged goods at this point.

[Dave Overlund]

This is the first time I have regretted clicking on an article at Twins Daily. Paddack and Kershaw? You guys are way better than this.

[rdehring]

When the Twins traded for Odorizzi, I am guessing that no one here or elsewhere thought he would be a likely target.  Likewise, I don't have a clue who the Twins will target this winter, hopefully, they will find someone like Odor to make a similar swap. 

 

Then resign Odorizzi and they have three good starters at the top of their rotation.  Go out and sign one of the better pitchers on the FA market along with one reclmation project (could be Gibby or Pineda) and they are better set for next season's run to the playoffs.

[rv78]

Archer is exactly the type of pitcher the Twins would go after. Whether they should or not, only time will tell.

I seriously doubt they will have even a remote chance at Cole or Strasburg. They are just dogs in MLB, (only get the scraps that no one else wants). Building Target Field was a farce to the fans. The extra revenue has lined the Pohlads pockets and hasn't produced a Championship since it was built. So much for being able to use that revenue for top end Free Agents. The fans were lied to. 

The rotation will be Berrios, Odorizzi, one 2nd or 3rd tier Free Agent, or either Pineda or Gibby or both and one of the 9 guys I listed above.

FYI, the bullpen needs upgrading as well.

[mikelink45]

 

Gaterol, who has zero MLB starts, is better than any of them? Wow.

Graterol has the potential to be better than all of them - yes.  This is not vintage Kershaw.  This is Kershaw on the down side of his career and no one knows how he will adapt.  I will take our player with huge upside.

[mlhouse]

 

Graterol has the potential to be better than all of them - yes.  This is not vintage Kershaw.  This is Kershaw on the down side of his career and no one knows how he will adapt.  I will take our player with huge upside.

 

The way it works out, we need Graterol to come through.  The farm system needs to produce and if a guy like Graterol can't be the 3rd/4th starter then that is a major issue with our system.  

 

Resign Odorizzi.

 

The other way that your farm system has to produce is turning some of the prospects into starters.   Find a trade, for one of these guys or others, were we traded a package of lets say, Enlow, Rooker, and Gordon, for a guy who is a 3/4 starter.  

 

I think that gives us a rotation that could be competitive.  In baseball, you either do it one way or the other.   If you believe you will be competitive, and coming off a remarkable 101 win season we should believe this, then act like it.   That means you trade prospects to fill holes in your roster and rotation.  That means you spend some money.   The Twins have always played both sides of the fence.

[USAFChief]

"The financial flexibility is there, with plenty of impact talent to be had."

 

Somewhat off topic, but while i agree with the first part of that statement, not so much the second. Cole is out there, and possibly Strasburg.

 

Am I missing "impact" free agent starters, beyond that?  

 

And let's be honest, the Twins aren't going to sign either of those two. 

 

So trades will need to occur. "Off the radar" trades are probably the most likely to happen.

 

I like the idea of getting Archer cheaply, if he continues to struggle, you're not out a ton, if he returns to form, or can be fixed, you've got your impact starter.

 

 

[Number3]

One thing this thread has done is preclude any of the above from happening. If the Twins acquired anyone even resembling Price or Kershaw it would serve them (Twins) right and save me money on MLB TV in 2020.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Kershaw isn't going anywhere. But another ace who could be available is David Price. He has three years left on his contract and spent most of his career in the AL East. Since Boston would welcome the trade the Twins wouldn't have to give up too much. But Boston would need to pay some of the remainder of the contract maybe $21 million making his remaining contract a three year $25 million per year which is a fair salary for him at this stage.

Boston needs SP too. I don't think they'd throw in cash with Price unless they got some good prospects / cheap talent in return.

[JW24]

On the topic of "Off-the-radar" pitchers to target in a trade, how about Blake Snell? He signed an extension recently that takes him through his age 30 season, when he would be making $16.6M. The Rays don't have much incentive to trade him, but I think the asking price for Snell is less than what the Padres might want for Paddack considering the financials.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Graterol has the potential to be better than all of them - yes.

At some point, if you're too generous in grading "potential", it's not so meaningful. Graterol has promise, but he isn't quite Mackenzie Gore either, and it sure looks like Graterol is going to be limited to 140 IP max in 2020, which restricts his immediate utility to the Twins a bit.

 

That said, I don't advocate trading him with reckless abandon either. But he's not untouchable.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

On the topic of "Off-the-radar" pitchers to target in a trade, how about Blake Snell? He signed an extension recently that takes him through his age 30 season, when he would be making $16.6M. The Rays don't have much incentive to trade him, but I think the asking price for Snell is less than what the Padres might want for Paddack considering the financials.

We heard that for years about the Rays and Chris Archer too, and it took them awhile to sell.

 

I think both Paddack and Snell are good enough, and both teams are in an aggressive enough position, that I don't think those financials make too much difference. Neither is likely available for less than a king's ransom right now.

[jmlease1]

Archer is not going to move the needle that much on the rotation. His value is in chewing up innings while giving you a chance to win, but he's never been dominant. He's really only had one really good season (2015) and has gotten progressively worse every year since. he's a full year older than odorizzi, but in their 8 years in MLB they've been almost exactly as valuable. Archer pitches more innings, odorizzi is more effective in the innings he pitches. I think you have to look at someone like Archer as a pitcher who likely shores up the back end as a 4th starter and you're putting a lot of faith that Wes Johnson can work some magic with him to get more than that. The contract is fine, but are you going to get better results than what you might from an internal option?

 

Gray has better odds of improving the high-end of the rotation, but I suspect he's due for some regression this year. Remember that while he's put up two 5+ bWAR seasons in the last 5 years, he also put up seasons of -0.3 and 0.6 bWAR in that same span (the 3rd season is right in the middle at 2.6 bWAR). Gray is very interesting but there's a lot of risk there, especially for the likely price.

 

I'm very interested in making a deal for Archer if we can sign or otherwise acquire a high-end starter, because i think his floor is still pretty high, he could bounce back and spin a nice year, and we'd be buying low. I think Gray's price tag will be too high for the risk of crapping out. Kershaw and Paddock seem unlikely to be real options, IMHO (but fun to consider for this kind of exercise!)

[Battle ur tail off]

IMO, a deal for either Archer or Gray doesn't take any of our top 3 guys. They flat out, just aren't that great. They are Ordorizzi is what they are. #3's. Low end #2's maybe. The best thing about them IMO, is that they are signed to pretty team friendly deals. 

 

Why do Twins fans always feel like to get anybody even at this level we have to give up the whole wad of top guys in our system? I don't see it. Problem is this organization has been so risk averse, they have everyone feeling like it takes moving mountains to get anyone of value in a trade or FA. 

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by Battle ur tail off