Front Page: Statcast Wants C.J. Cron Back – Do You?

[Mike Sixel]

The many big men that have played 3b and were forced to move to 1b. Sano is the most lean he's been since he was a teen. It has paid dividends for him, but isn't going to last. It is inevitable, not in a Thanos way. Who is the last big man that has actually improved defense at 3b after 25? Find one and I'll digress.

 

Again... if anyone thinks he will move well enough to be a below average 3b... He'll be able to play 1b just as well. Move him an get someone that can actually add value defensively and save runs. Sano WILL NEVER be that guy. This shouldn't even be a debate.

We're only talking defense here?

[DocBauer]

If not having Cron leads to Marwin being our 1B starter then I re-cast my ballot.

 

Marwin's 2017 was his career year, and the Marwin we have now does not have near enough the bat for starter's numbers at such an offense-first position.

Agreed. But that's what we are talking about isn't it? I don't think the market offers up a better option. Nobody else is ready just yet. And while Marwin and Adrianza can play 1B, I don't want either there daily.

 

And if you move the still young Sano to 1B, now you have the same situation on the other side.

[DocBauer]

The many big men that have played 3b and were forced to move to 1b. Sano is the most lean he's been since he was a teen. It has paid dividends for him, but isn't going to last. It is inevitable, not in a Thanos way. Who is the last big man that has actually improved defense at 3b after 25? Find one and I'll digress.

 

Again... if anyone thinks he will move well enough to be a below average 3b... He'll be able to play 1b just as well. Move him an get someone that can actually add value defensively and save runs. Sano WILL NEVER be that guy. This shouldn't even be a debate.

Going to disagree with you here. I don't expect Sano to ever be great at 3B. But I like his charging, like his ability to chase pop ups and foul balls, LOVE his arm, just want him a little more consistent on the balls he can get to. No question he is a big man and his range is limited. But he's young enough that if he just keeps working...and it seems his ethic has really changed...I could see improvement in this area.

 

To me the improvement, for now, comes from Polanco and Arraez.

 

Personally, from what I saw most of the year, I thought Cron played a pretty solid 1B.

[Badsmerf]

We're only talking defense here?

I think so?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Going to disagree with you here. I don't expect Sano to ever be great at 3B. But I like his charging, like his ability to chase pop ups and foul balls, LOVE his arm, just want him a little more consistent on the balls he can get to. No question he is a big man and his range is limited. But he's young enough that if he just keeps working...and it seems his ethic has really changed...I could see improvement in this area.

 

To me the improvement, for now, comes from Polanco and Arraez.

 

Personally, from what I saw most of the year, I thought Cron played a pretty solid 1B.

agreed, I’d sign CJ for one or two years because I think Sano can hold down 3B for a couple more years, at least.

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

Great article as a discussion starter, and you present a compelling argument!

 

A question on the Statcast data -- does it take shifts into account? In other words, are the "expected" results against a normal defensive alignment? Because if the expected stats don't take shifts into account and many of his outs are hit into a shift, then maybe there's not as much difference as it appears. 

 

Beyond that: 

1. Gonzalez can play first, but I'd rather not lock him in there. 
2. Sano can play first, but he's probably not going to be great defensively anywhere. Being at third uses his two biggest defensive assets -- his arm and his ability to come in on the ball. The likelihood of him becoming an average 3B may be greater than the likelihood of being average at 1B in that he has experience there vs. starting mostly from scratch. Think about what it would be like to move him to RF, for example.
3. Though Rooker/Kiriloff could kick the door in, I'd rather not have that as the plan for a contending team. If it happens, cool. That's a good problem to have. I'd rather have good problems than bad problems. As someone noted somewhere, he those guys do kick in the door, Cron could be trade bait. Or, it Cron is playing well, one of the young guys could also be trade bait as a "major league ready player" that young teams seem to covet. 
4. The FO does seem to place a premium on having good "clubhouse guys." If Cron checked the box this year, that's an advantage to resigning him over taking your chance on a different one-year fill in.

So with all those, I lean toward "yes." On the other hand, what's the plan at C? I'd like a veteran besides Garver and Astudillo. If the choice is between a fairly-priced Cron and a fairly-priced Castro, I might consider Castro.

Thanks! xwOBA neutralizes both defense and ball parks and I don't believe it currently takes shifts into accounts. Previous to this season I know faster players tended to be underrated by xwOBA so they incorporated sprint speed this year. Cron does seem to profile as a player who xwOBA might rate a bit too highly, but this year the difference between his xwOBA and wOBA was really high. In 2018 they were even for Cron but over his career his xwOBA has been higher than his wOBA (though not as extreme as this year). Career wise he is at .331 wOBA vs .343 xwOBA but this season obviously skewed those numbers towards xwOBA.

[DocBauer]

agreed, I’d sign CJ for one or two years because I think Sano can hold down 3B for a couple more years, at least.

Agreed.

 

I know people don't want to hear this, but I think Lewis could be the next 3B. And it's not because he can't play or won't play at SS. It's because I believe he has the athleticism to be good there, and the arm. I disagree with those who suggest his talent would be "wasted" there. Now, ultimately, we don't knkw his offensive potential just yet, or how much power he will have. But saying his talented woukd be a waste at 3B is like saying A-Rod or Machado were "wasted" at 3B because they could also play SS. And I NOT saying Lewis WON'T take over SS and shuffle the infield where Polanco or Arraez ends up 3B.

 

My thoughts are based more on Lewis's ability, and continued improvement from both Polanco and Arraez. At the end of the day, you want the most talent on the field and in the lineup you can have. If you have 5 guys in your lineup at various positions, does it matter what position they play? If your offense is excellent and your DH or 1B is a hitting, OB machine who sets the table, are you truly lacking?

 

A long way of agreeing with you and simply stating there are moving parts not yet ready who could change the structure of the lineup in the near future. Improvement from what is on hand is not too much to be expected. And a healthy Cron is a pretty nice and relatively inexpensive part to plug in to the 2020 lineup.

 

BTW, despite all I have said, I could easily see Sano as the primary DH who also plays 1B and 3B in a year or two, with the idea of Lewis taking a spot and 1B being Kirilloff, Larnach or Rooker. Guys don't have to be pigeonholed in to a single spot. Nor does your DH HAVE to be ONE GUY every day if your roster is deep, talented and flexible.

Edited October 27, 2019 by DocBauer

[Strato Guy]

I do not think that Cron is worth the money that he would get paid. He is a below average hitter vs righties for 1B. He mauls lefties, but the Twins hit lefties well. I see Cron, on a good hitting team, getting only about 350 at bats, playing against lefties and occasionally against righties. If he was better against righties and better defensively, then he would be worth the money. If you didn't notice, he was pretty much a platoon player down the stretch.

Edited October 27, 2019 by Strato Guy

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

I do not think that Cron is worth the money that he would get paid. He is a below average hitter vs righties for 1B. He mauls lefties, but the Twins hit lefties well. I see Cron, on a good hitting team, getting only about 350 at bats, playing against lefties and occasionally against righties. If he was better against righties and better defensively, then he would be worth the money. If you didn't notice, he was pretty much a platoon player down the stretch.

I was all for platooning Cron as well but a big part of that was his ineffectiveness due to the thumb injury. His 2019 splits were really extreme compared to his career (2019 - 160 wRC+ vs L, 78 wRC+ vs R / Career (including 2019) - 121 wRC+ vs L, 105 wRC+ vs R) and I think a lot of it probably had to do with the thumb injury. With that said, I'm okay with whatever the Twins decide to do with Cron.

[Blake]

One part of me would really like to see CJ Cron come back, the other has reluctantly concluded the team needs to add some speed on the base paths. 

 

When the bats aren't working, the Twins need to find a way to manufacture runs.

 

If CJ Cron has to be sacrificed for more team speed then so be it.

[Mike8012]

Most definitely keep CJ. Before his thumb injury he had a great bat and made some great plays at 1st Base. Keep him

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Agreed.

 

I know people don't want to hear this, but I think Lewis could be the next 3B. And it's not because he can't play or won't play at SS. It's because I believe he has the athleticism to be good there, and the arm. I disagree with those who suggest his talent would be "wasted" there. Now, ultimately, we don't knkw his offensive potential just yet, or how much power he will have. But saying his talented woukd be a waste at 3B is like saying A-Rod or Machado were "wasted" at 3B because they could also play SS. And I NOT saying Lewis WON'T take over SS and shuffle the infield where Polanco or Arraez ends up 3B.

 

My thoughts are based more on Lewis's ability, and continued improvement from both Polanco and Arraez. At the end of the day, you want the most talent on the field and in the lineup you can have. If you have 5 guys in your lineup at various positions, does it matter what position they play? If your offense is excellent and your DH or 1B is a hitting, OB machine who sets the table, are you truly lacking?

 

A long way of agreeing with you and simply stating there are moving parts not yet ready who could change the structure of the lineup in the near future. Improvement from what is on hand is not too much to be expected. And a healthy Cron is a pretty nice and relatively inexpensive part to plug in to the 2020 lineup.

 

BTW, despite all I have said, I could easily see Sano as the primary DH who also plays 1B and 3B in a year or two, with the idea of Lewis taking a spot and 1B being Kirilloff, Larnach or Rooker. Guys don't have to be pigeonholed in to a single spot. Nor does your DH HAVE to be ONE GUY every day if your roster is deep, talented and flexible.

Gordon could be in the 3rd base mix as well.

[DocBauer]

One part of me would really like to see CJ Cron come back, the other has reluctantly concluded the team needs to add some speed on the base paths. 

 

When the bats aren't working, the Twins need to find a way to manufacture runs.

 

If CJ Cron has to be sacrificed for more team speed then so be it.

I want to agree with you, and mostly do, but not bringing back Cron doesn't increase team speed.

 

This kind of goes back to my previous post a short while ago...re-read I found some ugly typos and a team HR comment I blew because I was distracted, embarrassed now, lol...in regard to Lewis becoming a future fixture at 3B, or wherever yada yada. However you construct your team, you want to put the best, deepest and most versatile lineup together you can. This not only your starting, primary 9, but your reserves as well.

 

With or without Cron, the Twins have a powerful and productive lineup. And there is athleticism and speed on hand, though only Buxton has elite speed. But Rosario, Kepler, Polanco and even Cave all have pretty good speed. And speed is not just about SB, but also taking the extra base and legging out XB hits. I think the Twins do that pretty well as constructed. I ABSOLUTELY hope and wish they would steal a few more bases and play a little more hit and run to put pressure on the other team. But I'm not certain they are built that way at the moment. And unless you find a Erstad to play 1B, replacing Cron will not increase increase team speed. Now, in theory, Lewis at 3B, or wherever, and Sano at 1B, or Kirilloff, etc, then you HAVE added more speed. Again, that may be a year away.

 

Removing Cron at this point just doesn't increase team speed without a significant change to tbe roster.

 

NOTE: When things change, and things start to level, everyone is looking for the next change/advantage. The recent successful Royals teams relied on defense, bullpen and speed. The Dirty Sox saw improvement by running more to help their offense. Despite a radical shift to power and launch angles and the such, one of these days, probably sooner than later, someone is going to put together a quality staff and be content with 180-200 HR with a TON of doubles and re-invent the idea of the SB with contact and hit and run and drive other teams nuts.

[DocBauer]

Gordon could be in the 3rd base mix as well.

Absolutely!

 

Just because he didn't tantalize everyone by skyrocketing to MLB by age 22, doesn't mean he doesn't have real potential still. I made similar comments in the recent Gordon particular article that I'd like to have him, we're I the Twins or another team. He is coming of a quality AAA season, even if jt was somewhat abbreviated. After a hot start followed by injury, be was probably brought up before Arraez. We will never know. And as I also stated in the other post, Adrianza actually hit in milb, but never received an extended stay at the ML level. Neither did Escobar. But what happened over time?

 

Sometimes, we are just too impatient and quick to judge. Unless traded, I expect to see Gordon spend time with the Twins in 2020 at some point. He has ability to field, hit, get OB, run, and even provide some pop. How quickly will he show any of this and develop is a mystery. But so was the case for both Adrianza and Escobar.

 

Note: You want an interesting prospect to watch for 2020 that nobody really knows or talks about? Andrew Bechtold. A year from now, we could be talking about him as a 2021 ready to make an appearance as a 1B/2B/3B/OF option.

 

Sorry if I got off track somewhat.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd rather see the team sign a 3B and move Sano to first base but I won't cry a river if they retain Cron. When he was healthy, he was a pretty good player. I'd prefer an upgrade but given the rotation issues facing the team, it's okay if they focus on that and just keep the lineup intact as much as possible.

[Blake]

 

I want to agree with you, and mostly do, but not bringing back Cron doesn't increase team speed.

This kind of goes back to my previous post a short while ago...re-read I found some ugly typos and a team HR comment I blew because I was distracted, embarrassed now, lol...in regard to Lewis becoming a future fixture at 3B, or wherever yada yada. However you construct your team, you want to put the best, deepest and most versatile lineup together you can. This not only your starting, primary 9, but your reserves as well.

With or without Cron, the Twins have a powerful and productive lineup. And there is athleticism and speed on hand, though only Buxton has elite speed. But Rosario, Kepler, Polanco and even Cave all have pretty good speed. And speed is not just about SB, but also taking the extra base and legging out XB hits. I think the Twins do that pretty well as constructed. I ABSOLUTELY hope and wish they would steal a few more bases and play a little more hit and run to put pressure on the other team. But I'm not certain they are built that way at the moment. And unless you find a Erstad to play 1B, replacing Cron will not increase increase team speed. Now, in theory, Lewis at 3B, or wherever, and Sano at 1B, or Kirilloff, etc, then you HAVE added more speed. Again, that may be a year away.

Removing Cron at this point just doesn't increase team speed without a significant change to tbe roster.

NOTE: When things change, and things start to level, everyone is looking for the next change/advantage. The recent successful Royals teams relied on defense, bullpen and speed. The Dirty Sox saw improvement by running more to help their offense. Despite a radical shift to power and launch angles and the such, one of these days, probably sooner than later, someone is going to put together a quality staff and be content with 180-200 HR with a TON of doubles and re-invent the idea of the SB with contact and hit and run and drive other teams nuts.

I was thinking in term of a FA acquisition by the Twins over keeping Cron.

 

I think the Twins may be a little too much "station to station" as currently constructed.

 

Whether there's a player available that fits the bill, I have no idea.

 

More along the lines of something I think the FO should keep in mind.

 

However, since I haven't recently slept at Holiday Inn, nor put together a team that won a 101 games in the regular season, you can guess what my opinion may be worth.

 

Great response, by the way, thank you.

[Shaitan]

Don't let a controllable, consistent player go until they're a free agent. $8 mil is nothing in modern MLB. That's probably what they paid Hughes last year. (No, I don't care to fact check that.)

 

Keep him under the "there's no such thing as a bad 1-year deal" logic. If it backfires...they'll get an A lottery ticket in July and promote Rooker.

 

[DocBauer]

I was thinking in term of a FA acquisition by the Twins over keeping Cron.

 

I think the Twins may be a little too much "station to station" as currently constructed.

 

Whether there's a player available that fits the bill, I have no idea.

 

More along the lines of something I think the FO should keep in mind.

 

However, since I haven't recently slept at Holiday Inn, nor put together a team that won a 101 games in the regular season, you can guess what my opinion may be worth.

 

Great response, by the way, thank you.

Hilarious!

 

But one thought I had, as a follow up, that might sound crazy considering the OF pipeline we have coming up.

 

Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach just aren't ready yet. And while I like Cave and think Wade has a chance, what about bringing in a different 4th OF with speed and defense and ML experience? I don't have a list of potentials in front of me at the moment...getting tired and retiring for the evening...but might there be such an OF on the cheap side to push their way on the roster, or AAA depth with a possible out that would make sense?

 

Asking.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I was thinking in term of a FA acquisition by the Twins over keeping Cron.

 

I think the Twins may be a little too much "station to station" as currently constructed.

 

Whether there's a player available that fits the bill, I have no idea.

 

More along the lines of something I think the FO should keep in mind.

 

However, since I haven't recently slept at Holiday Inn, nor put together a team that won a 101 games in the regular season, you can guess what my opinion may be worth.

 

Great response, by the way, thank you.

agreed, might be too station to station, especially if the playoff dead ball is the ball for the 2020 season

[David HK]

Yes, most definitely. That thumb injury really did his season in. He soldiered on, but was not the same player for sure. His D was a welcome surprise, and those lazers that he hit in the 1st half of the season, wow.

 

He's under team control next year anyway, and I'd love to see Sano get worked into 1B slowly, while Cron mans it on a regular basis. Then, the following year, (or next yr. 2nd half if it happens), when one or another of those young sluggers forces his way onto the roster, there'll be Cron's spot to be taken.

[Blake]

 

Hilarious!

But one thought I had, as a follow up, that might sound crazy considering the OF pipeline we have coming up.

Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach just aren't ready yet. And while I like Cave and think Wade has a chance, what about bringing in a different 4th OF with speed and defense and ML experience? I don't have a list of potentials in front of me at the moment...getting tired and retiring for the evening...but might there be such an OF on the cheap side to push their way on the roster, or AAA depth with a possible out that would make sense?

Asking.

I think it's a good question and I have no idea what the answer may be.

 

It's kind of funny, but how much has the new FO raised the bar of expectations of this off-season with the success of this last season?

 

"Victim of their own success" might be an apt description.

[Riverbrian]

We acquired Cron off of waivers because Tampa didn't want to pay him the 4M he would have received in Arbitration.  

 

I don't believe we had the first waiver claim meaning other teams passed on paying Cron 4M. 

 

The price is now 8M and his year wasn't as good. 

 

Wait for Tampa to waive Jesus Aguilar and sign him. 

[USAFChief]

Sano is going to end up at 1st base, it's a matter of time.

 

Make the move now, and figure out what to do about 3rd.

[ashbury]

Sano is going to end up at 1st base, it's a matter of time.

 

Make the move now, and figure out what to do about 3rd.

Eventually he's going to retire, too. Cut him now and save everyone some time.

 

It's fair to disagree that he has any value at 3B right now. But having him at 3B, if he still qualifies as "adequate" or better (as I do see him), does keep open the choice to find a better bat than Cron's at 1B, if that potential exists out there somewhere. Moving Sano to 1B means finding someone with better fielding skills than that, and may be more expensive, in an off-season where (yet again) financial resources need to be directed toward pitching.

[Mike Sixel]

We acquired Cron off of waivers because Tampa didn't want to pay him the 4M he would have received in Arbitration.

 

I don't believe we had the first waiver claim meaning other teams passed on paying Cron 4M.

 

The price is now 8M and his year wasn't as good.

 

Wait for Tampa to waive Jesus Aguilar and sign him.

I think people forget this. Many teams did not want him at four million.....

 

Those saying the money doesn't matter, can you really say that with certainty given this team's history?

[Riverbrian]

 

I think people forget this. Many teams did not want him at four million.....

Those saying the money doesn't matter, can you really say that with certainty given this team's history?

 

Every team has a budget. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

unless they're getting Donaldson, I'd tender Cron... there really isn't much else out there unless there's another surprise cut like CJ was last year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Every team has a budget. 

 

I have no idea what this means re: my post. 

[Jham]

I think people forget this. Many teams did not want him at four million.....

 

Those saying the money doesn't matter, can you really say that with certainty given this team's history?

last year he was seen as a DH and perhaps even damaged goods. The perception was maybe Tampa knew something the rest of the league didn't. Many teams were scared of him for that reason. I was.

[Riverbrian]

 

I have no idea what this means re: my post. 

 

You said: "Those saying the money doesn't matter"

 

I replied: "Every team has a budget". 

 

I was agreeing with you. The money does matter.

 

My main point is that his price has gone from 4 million to 8 million and he priced himself into waivers at 4 million a year prior.