Front Page: 3 Reasons Why the Rebuilt White Sox Aren't Ready to Challenge Twins

[Nash Walker]

Hoarding prospects has been an effective strategy for the Twins as they enjoyed breakouts from Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Miguel Sanó, and Byron Buxton among others. The White Sox have employed a similar tactic, trading away numerous big leaguers for top-end prospects. Those prospects are here, and a few of them showed real promise last year. Three things remain true about Chicago.1.) They have a porous pitching staff.

 

The rotation looked like a strong part of the rebuild for Chicago as Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech were both ranked in the top 25 on MLB Pipeline.

 

Kopech has not pitched in over a year after Tommy John surgery and Cease struggled in the majors, starting 14 games and allowing an .839 OPS and 1.8 HR/9. Cease finished the year strong with a 3.00 ERA in September, but his last three starts came against the Angels, Mariners, and Tigers.

 

After a step forward in 2018, Reynaldo López took two steps back. Teammate Lucas Giolito allowed 118 runs in 2018 and López allowed 110 runs this year, both led MLB. López allowed 35 homers in 184 innings.

 

Giolito bounced back with a 3.41 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 176 2/3 innings. Giolito’s hard hit percentage only decreased 2.3%, but his strikeout rate doubled and his walk rate improved from 11.1% to 8.1%. Giolito was an All-Star but regressed following the break:

 

 

Their latest additions, Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez, should help eat some innings. Keuchel hid behind a 4.72 FIP playing in front of Josh Donaldson and Ozzie Albies last year. His ground ball tendencies make little sense for a Chicago defense that ranked 25th in baseball in 2019. Gonzalez is more of a depth piece than anything of impact.

 

2.) The devil is in the details

 

Slugger Eloy Jiménez started the year with a poor .674 OPS and 25 strikeouts in his first 85 plate appearances. He improved to hit .292 with a .542 slugging percentage after the break. The caveat is that Jiménez was an awful outfielder with -11 DRS and a -6.6 UZR/150. Let’s compare him to fellow rookie Luis Arraez:

 

 

Batting champion Tim Anderson hit .335 with a .399 BABIP. The Sox led in BABIP at .329, 31 points above average. Anderson posted a putrid 109-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio, the worst in baseball. His hard hit percentage is a low 32.3%, ranking 332nd in MLB, according to baseball savant. Anderson ranks fourth in swing percentage at 58.5%. All of these numbers scream regression. Anderson was also an atrocious shortstop with -9 DRS and a -11.7 UZR/150.

 

Anderson finished second in BABIP to teammate Yoàn Moncada, who followed up his strikeout plagued 2018 with improvement a year later. Moncada hit .315/.367/.548 with 25 home runs. Moncada, Anderson and Jiménez all ranked in the bottom 10 in strikeout-to-walk ratio. The White Sox ranked last in walks and sixth in strikeouts. Moncada, like his counterparts, was a below average defender with -7 DRS at third base. The White Sox only beat out the Marlins and Pirates in GB/FB ratio. Only the Marlins hit more ground balls than the Sox in 2019.

 

3.) They are not the 2018 Twins

 

The Twins won 23 more games in one year, but this is different for Chicago. Minnesota has the capital, talent and front office to run this division for the foreseeable future. The Twins beat the White Sox in 13 of their 19 games this year, outscoring them by 60 runs.

 

While the Twins were not good in 2018, they still ranked ninth in the AL in OPS, sixth in runs scored, and ninth in team ERA. The White Sox finished 13th in runs scored and home runs and 12th in OPS, despite having the batting champion in Anderson and RBI leader in Abreu.

 

The offseason has shifted the attention back to the White Sox, and they have done a nice job improving. I believe the Sox can maybe push for a Wild Card spot, but they are far behind the defending division champions.

 

Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook.

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Handbook Preview: Glen Perkins Reviewing Relievers

— Twins Can Begin Cashing in on Prospects

— Hot Corner Consideration: Potential Third Base Alternatives to Miguel Sano

 

Click here to view the article

[mikelink45]

Nice article, but falling short on Harper and Machado is not being cheap.  Only two teams over spent enough to get them and I believe the results of those two teams shows how much real value there is in such stud players.  If it were worth throwing that kind of money at players San Diego and Philadelphia would not be hiring new managers.  Mike Trout is the acknowledged superdooper surefire HOF player and he cannot get his team to the playoffs. 

 

I have issues with all the FA discussions - would we have really been better if we had broken the bank for Yu Darvish the year before?  Ask the Cubs fans.

 

I agree that they have not acquired the prospects that the Twins did, but I do believe they are still on the rise and pitchers sometimes take a year or two to get over the rookie blues - see the career of J O Berrios.

[jorgenswest]

They have tremendous upside in their young starters.

 

Giolito, Kopech, Lopez and Cease In the rotation. Rodon and Dunning returning during the season. The oldest of these Lopez is 26 (turns 27 in December).

 

I think the Twins better be paying attention.

[bird]

Not so fast, Mr. Walker. 

 

We can all recall when similar criticisms were aimed at all those position players on the Twins who just had breakout years here in 2019. The performance flaws you're pointing out pertaining to Anderson, Jiminez, and Moncada sound eerily familiar regarding Sano, Buxton, Rosario...

 

Let's not assume those three won't continue to develop. And now add their monster prospect, Luis Robert, to the mix, a guy more highly regarded than Royce Lewis, and Madrigal, whose bat control is better than even Luis Arraez and whose prospect value is almost on a par with Alex Kirilloff.

 

I also wonder if you aren't dramatically underrating those young starters. The Twins would very quickly trade either Graterol or any other pitching prospect for Kopech, and Dunning is equally regarded, I believe, as either Balazovic or Duran.

 

In my view, the key to the Twin's ability to stay a step ahead of the White Sox revolves around three things:

 

1. What we do to acquire front line pitching help this winter via FA and trades.

 

2. Graterol, Duran, and Balasozic AND OTHERS amounting to something, and soon, so that they can avoid having to pay even steeper costs in prospect capital and cash in FA in future years to make up for guys like Thorpe, Alcala, and Dobnak possibly not making the grade.

 

3. Lewis, Kirilloff, Arraez and Larnach becoming core pieces, thereby allowing them to trade redundant players like Rooker, Gordon, Rosario, and Cave for value.

 

One really positive thing, in my mind, is that Fangraphs gives a 40FV or better to 17 Twins pitching prospects, most of them starters currently, whereas they give only nine pitching prospects for CWS the same grades. Numbers matter when it comes to developing pitching.

 

Another positive, IMO, is that, whereas CWS only has 5 non-US prospects at 40FV or better, the Twins have 17. I believe this because I believe the only way to truly gain an advantage through the US amateur draft is by having a favorable draft order. 

 

The Twins have 40 prospects with a 40FV or higher. The CWS have 24.

Edited October 26, 2019 by birdwatcher

[diehardtwinsfan]

I certainly woudln't sleep on the Sox like the Indians did with us this year... But, I do think the White Sox are probably another year or two away yet from being a serious threat. 

[Riverbrian]

Last year the Sox were trying to sign Machado. With all the youth one year older... I don’t believe the attempt at the top of the pile was a one and done.

Meaning... you will hear the White Sox in on Cole and the others.

Meaning... whatever you think they are now has little relation to what they will be.

Meaning; Dismissing the Sox is a bad idea.

You can dismiss the Tigers and Royals tho.

[Thegrin]

3 Reasons why the White Sox won't rival the Twins.

1. They have to live in Chicago.

2. They have to live in Chicago.

3. They have to live in Chicago.

Edited October 27, 2019 by Thegrin

[SomeGuy]

I disagree with the frugal comment. The White Sox have been a top 10 payroll team multiple times in the last decade and even a top 5.

 

The fact that they were even interested in Machado and Harper says they have more capital potential than us. They have a much better shot at landing someone like Cole, Strasburg or Rendon than the Twins do.

 

Saying that they had a low payroll the last 3 years, when they had no intentions of winning, is not representative of what a White Sox "trying to win" team will look like. The Astros were 29th or 30th in payroll for 4 straight seasons from 2013 - 2016. Now Houston has about 200M in payroll. Rebuilding teams don't pay for players until they are at the end of the rebuild and the White Sox have reached that point. Like the Twins, they have no long term/high dollar commitments and loads of talented youth. The White Sox are in a good position to do some major spending soon. I expect them to be serious bidders in FA this year, more so than the Twins. They might not be serious contenders until 2021 or later but they should start spending now.

[jkcarew]

"Cease finished the year strong with a 3.00 ERA in September, but his last three starts came against the Angels, Mariners, and Tigers."

 

You could make a similar comment about literally every good number a Twins pitcher (or hitter) posted in 2019. The Twins strength of schedule in 2019 was historically low. Like, about as low as any team has had in recent history.

 

The Twins won 32 of 69 games they played against >.500 teams. The White Sox won 29 of 69 games they played against >.500 teams (not including the Twins).

 

Having said that, I think the White Sox are probably another year away...2021...we'll see what this off-season brings. But, it certainly looks like they're coming. It's just a matter of when.

Edited October 28, 2019 by jkcarew