WHAT IF: George Springer had signed with the Twins

[Seth Stohs]

Alright, this is just for fun, but I think this could be a fun conversation...

 

The Twins drafted OF George Springer in the 48th round of the 2008 draft out of high school in Connecticut. Having a scholarship to U Conn, he obviously did not sign. He went on to be a first-round pick of the Astros... and he's been an All Star and World Series MVP. On Tuesday night, he became to first player in MLB history to hit a homer in 5 straight World Series games.

 

Anyway, what is the Twins would have signed Springer in 2008? How might that have played out?

 

The Twins had taken outfielders Aaron Hicks and Ben Revere in the first rounds of the 2007 and 2008 draft, and they had taken Chris Parmelee and Joe Benson with their first two picks of the 2006 draft. What kind of priority, if any, would a 48th round pick been given? How many opportunities.

 

Presumably he would have spent that 2008 season in the GCL, and probably would have been in Elizabethton in 2009. It's likely he may have spent 2010 in E-Town too, though Beloit is possible. In 2011, he would likely have spent most of that season in Beloit, possibly getting to Ft. Myers. After being the 11th overall pick of the 2011 draft, he played 8 games in the NYPL. 

 

Had Springer developed the same was as he did in college, he would likely have debuted with the Twins late in 2014. Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Josh Willingham and Danny Santana got time in the Twins outfield that year, so Springer could have had a chance. Rosario and Buxton didn't debut until 2015, and Kepler did late in September that year. 

Springer could have made an impression... Or, he may not have developed by playing differently in pro ball than college ball.

 

Could Spring have helped the Twins down the stretch in 2015, with Torii Hunter around - the guy he often played catch with while the Twins All Star played for the New Britain Rock Cats? Could Springer have helped them in the Wild Card game in 2017? And where would he be now if he had signed with the Twins way back in 2008?

 

How do you think that may have played out? (And please be respectful!)

[darin617]

How about what if Houston drafted the best overall prospect Byron Buxton instead of Carlos Correa.

[Platoon]

I think George Springer is a wonderful ball player. But WHAT IF George Springer had ran out of the box on that double instead or posing for 40'? WHAT IF he had ended up at third and scored on that one out FB to RF?

Springer would still look good in a Twins uni, but that was a mistake. I wonder what TD would look like today if it had been a Twins WS and it had been Eddie?

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think George Springer is a wonderful ball player. But WHAT IF George Springer had ran out of the box on that double instead or posing for 40'? WHAT IF he had ended up at third and scored on that one out FB to RF?
Springer would still look good in a Twins uni, but that was a mistake. I wonder what TD would look like today if it had been a Twins WS and it had been Eddie?

 

Oh, I'm sure some people would have chosen to overreact to it here... for sure. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

How about what if Houston drafted the best overall prospect Byron Buxton instead of Carlos Correa.

 

Then the Twins would have drafted Correa, the guy that they had #1 on their board too. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

On the flip side, every other team probably has a comparable "what if" too. Especially pre-2012 (when the draft was shortened to 40 rounds and the bonus limits were put into place).

 

The Twins don't seem to have very many college players, but Gibson was drafted in the 36th round by the Phillies. Larnach was a 40th round pick of the Padres. I suppose I'd trade Gibson and Larnach for Springer.

[Seth Stohs]

It's definitely been mentioned a bit:

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here's a Michael Rand piece on this topic from 2017:

 

http://www.startribune.com/the-twins-drafted-george-springer-no-they-didnt-mess-up-by-not-signing-him/455017753/

 

 

 

But while it is tempting to think of what Springer’s presence would mean to the current Twins, we also need a dose of reality here. The best way to do that is to provide a little context on the MLB draft.

*First off, the 48th round of the draft is such a long-shot position that it doesn’t even exist anymore. In 2012, the MLB draft went from 50 to 40 rounds. So anyone chosen that late in the draft is a long shot of long shots and wouldn’t even be picked today.
 

*The bonus money allotted to a 48th-round pick would, in most cases, be pretty marginal. Teams can exceed typical figures if they really like a player and want to persuade him — as would have been the case with Springer — to sign instead of going to college. But that late in the draft, a player with the chance to play for a Division I school is probably going to go that route in hopes of 1) getting an education and/or 2) playing well enough in college to enhance his draft stock once he’s eligible to be drafted again, which happens either after he’s been in college for three years or he turns 21 (whichever comes first).

*To give you some context about the success rate of players drafted in the 48th round: The Twins have made a 48th-round draft pick 27 times in their franchise history. Springer is the only one who has ever appeared in a major league game.
 

*More context: I went back and looked at the final 15 years of history of MLB drafts before it shrunk to 40 rounds (1997-2011) to see how 48th-round picks panned out.

Teams made a combined 380 picks in the 48th rounds of those drafts (some opting in some years to not even bother making a selection). Of those 380 picks, 21 reached the majors — most for limited action.
 

Only three players went on to achieve a lifetime Wins Above Replacement of more than three: Springer, Tim Lincecum (2003) and Seth Smith (2001). Lincecum, of course, was a two-time Cy Young winner. Smith has been a solid MLB hitter for a decade. And all three went to college after being drafted in the 48th round out of high school, eventually being taken much higher (Springer and Lincecum in the first round, Smith in the second round) by different teams.

 

[ashbury]

I don't see his UConn numbers on b-r.com, but by age 21 in the pros he was showing a pattern of needing 100 PA or fewer to master a level. So I'll go out on a limb and guess that he and Aaron Hicks would have paired up as they progressed through the minors, and would both have been pressed into the lineup when the Twins traded away Span and Revere. Maybe Willingham would have been traded a year early to KC for Will Smith (KC did in fact trade for an OF), solving our bullpen problems for the rest of the decade. We reach a surprise ALCS in 2015, and win it all in 2017. A guy can dream, can't he? Darn you, George Springer and your high-falutin' college-boy ways!

[biggentleben]

 

It's definitely been mentioned a bit:

 

 

Make sure to read the piece, though.

[darin617]

 

I think George Springer is a wonderful ball player. But WHAT IF George Springer had ran out of the box on that double instead or posing for 40'? WHAT IF he had ended up at third and scored on that one out FB to RF?
Springer would still look good in a Twins uni, but that was a mistake. I wonder what TD would look like today if it had been a Twins WS and it had been Eddie?

It would have been slightly different if he hit the ball down the line and hoped it didn't go foul. He still should have ran out of the box.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think George Springer is a wonderful ball player. But WHAT IF George Springer had ran out of the box on that double instead or posing for 40'? WHAT IF he had ended up at third and scored on that one out FB to RF?
Springer would still look good in a Twins uni, but that was a mistake. I wonder what TD would look like today if it had been a Twins WS and it had been Eddie?

 

It was probably still a mistake, but it's worth noting that Tucker (the runner on 2nd) was tagging on the play. (Which itself was probably a mistake too!)

 

So even with the ball staying in play and falling for a hit, Springer may not have expected to get past second anyway, because Tucker was likely only advancing to third.

 

Of course, it not only fell for a hit, it was misplayed off the wall (which seems to happen a lot in that park?) and Springer should have been prepared for that possibility too.

[biggentleben]

Regular season, that ball is out. Then all this is moot.