Front Page: Twins Trade Targets: 4 Potential Starting Pitching Upgrades

[Mike Sixel]

I've been on the Gray wagon for years......but he's got less and less team control left, and a longer history of not succeeding like I hope.....that said, I don't think much of CO's FO, and their ability with pitchers, so I'd target him (but then, I've wanted him in MN since the draft.....so what do I know?).....

[nicksaviking]

 

I've been on the Gray wagon for years......but he's got less and less team control left, and a longer history of not succeeding like I hope.....that said, I don't think much of CO's FO, and their ability with pitchers, so I'd target him (but then, I've wanted him in MN since the draft.....so what do I know?).....

 

Yeah, aside from what looks to be pretty good stuff, this is always a selling point with me. 

[Thrylos]

 

I've been on the Gray wagon for years......but he's got less and less team control left, and a longer history of not succeeding like I hope.....that said, I don't think much of CO's FO, and their ability with pitchers, so I'd target him (but then, I've wanted him in MN since the draft.....so what do I know?).....

 

The weird thing about Gray is that he is pitching much better at Coors than on the road.  I'd pass really fast.

[Mike Sixel]

The weird thing about Gray is that he is pitching much better at Coors than on the road. I'd pass really fast.

He'd be my second or third acquisition.... Not the headliner.

[Loosey]

I think each of these options improve upon their previous success if they come to MN. The Twins have recently shown their ability to get the most out their players and I think they can do that with these guys.

[markos]

 

I think each of these options improve upon their previous success if they come to MN. The Twins have recently shown their ability to get the most out their players and I think they can do that with these guys.

I think this is really important point to keep in mind. The Astros in particular did not go out an trade for two of the best pitchers in baseball when they acquired the 2017 Verlander and Cole. They traded for good pitchers that they were able to transform into two of the best pitchers in baseball. If the goal is to find a pitcher that currently slots ahead of Berrios/Odorizzi, it is extremely unlikely that the Twins will be able to acquire one - pitchers of that current quality are almost all already on contending teams and I don't see them outbidding everyone for Cole. So I think the goal is to find a pitcher or pitchers of current lesser quality but with upside, with the expectation that this pitcher development staff will be able to help them make a leap. I think these 4 pitchers all fit that criteria considering their age, their current track records, and the track records of their current organizations.

[Twins33]

The Cubs win the world series, and until this year made the playoffs....

Sometimes trades work, and sometimes not. But suggesting never trading top prospects.... That seems unrealistic to me, if you want great players in return. I could be wrong, maybe they can get great players back without every dealing actual good or great prospects....

I think you’re missing what birdwatcher said. Houston got Verlander without having to trade their “Royce Lewis.” They got Cole without having to trade their “Royce Lewis.”

 

Why can’t the Twins do the same? I think that’s what birdwatcher is intending. Houston has made great trades with out trading their very top guys. The Twins should try to do that if possible. It may not be possible, but the Astros have done it several times and that’s definitely something the Twins should try to emulate.

[Vanimal46]

I think you’re missing what birdwatcher said. Houston got Verlander without having to trade their “Royce Lewis.” They got Cole without having to trade their “Royce Lewis.”

 

Why can’t the Twins do the same? I think that’s what birdwatcher is intending. Houston has made great trades with out trading their very top guys. The Twins should try to do that if possible. It may not be possible, but the Astros have done it several times and that’s definitely something the Twins should try to emulate.

Sure, every team will try to emulate that philosophy not trading their top prospect. The deal with prospects though is not knowing if the 13th best player on the list will end up with the best MLB career or not.

 

Arraez could have been thought of a throw in for a trade last year at this time because he was maybe 20th on the prospect list.

[Mike Sixel]

I think you’re missing what birdwatcher said. Houston got Verlander without having to trade their “Royce Lewis.” They got Cole without having to trade their “Royce Lewis.”

 

Why can’t the Twins do the same? I think that’s what birdwatcher is intending. Houston has made great trades with out trading their very top guys. The Twins should try to do that if possible. It may not be possible, but the Astros have done it several times and that’s definitely something the Twins should try to emulate.

I'm not missing the point... I'm saying it isn't always that easy.... Also, I'm saying we are still waiting for them to even trade three good prospects for one player, let alone do it multiple times.... And have it work every time.

[Riverbrian]

 

I think this is really important point to keep in mind. The Astros in particular did not go out an trade for two of the best pitchers in baseball when they acquired the 2017 Verlander and Cole. They traded for good pitchers that they were able to transform into two of the best pitchers in baseball. If the goal is to find a pitcher that currently slots ahead of Berrios/Odorizzi, it is extremely unlikely that the Twins will be able to acquire one - pitchers of that current quality are almost all already on contending teams and I don't see them outbidding everyone for Cole. So I think the goal is to find a pitcher or pitchers of current lesser quality but with upside, with the expectation that this pitcher development staff will be able to help them make a leap. I think these 4 pitchers all fit that criteria considering their age, their current track records, and the track records of their current organizations.

 

This is it exactly. And this is what the crux of this article is about. 

 

The Astros are extremely successful getting players to fly correctly. From unheralded prospects Dallas Kuechel and Jose Altuve to trade acquisitions coming off down years like Justin Verlander and Garrit Cole. 

 

The Twins need to be able to do this for long term success. And they need to start right now. 

 

Tomorrow is here. 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

The weird thing about Gray is that he is pitching much better at Coors than on the road.  I'd pass really fast.

 

He rarely throws off speed stuff, almost certainly because his off speed pitch is a curve and you can't count on a curve not to hang in Colorado. It's an above average pitch for him though and I think a team will see much more improved results from his strong FB and slider if if the new club feels comfortable enough to let whip out off speed pitches more than 10% of the time.

[rdehring]

 

I'm not missing the point... I'm saying it isn't always that easy.... Also, I'm saying we are still waiting for them to even trade three good prospects for one player, let alone do it multiple times.... And have it work every time.

Isn't that what they did in July, Mike?  They traded three very good prospects, in my opinion, for one excellent reliever.  Granted, no one knew that his arm was about to fall off nor did his medical records show that to be the case...or so we have been led to believe.  Granted, two of the prospects were in the low minors, but I viewed the Asian kid as a potential prize.  

Edited October 18, 2019 by rdehring

[Oxtung]

 

I think each of these options improve upon their previous success if they come to MN. The Twins have recently shown their ability to get the most out their players and I think they can do that with these guys.

 

They have had some successes this season with Duffey, Rogers, Littell, and Odo but there have been some pretty big meltdowns as well with Perez, Parker, Hildenberger, Mejia, and Romero. There are also a bunch of pitchers who pretty much were what they always have been too, Magill, Pineda, Berrios, etc... To me this year looks like a normal year. Some pitchers step up, some plateau, some fall. 

 

Why do you expect whoever comes here to only improve?

[Twins33]

Sure, every team will try to emulate that philosophy not trading their top prospect. The deal with prospects though is not knowing if the 13th best player on the list will end up with the best MLB career or not.

 

Arraez could have been thought of a throw in for a trade last year at this time because he was maybe 20th on the prospect list.

Yes, that’s always true. That’s what teams have to be good at. The Astros seem to be good at that part as well. While they’ve acquired good players, have there been any regrets about the guys they lost? All three traded for Verlander have done nothing so far. That looks like Verlander for a bag of balls. Musgrove is the only decent guy in the Cole trade and as of right now he’s only a three or four in a rotation. Not much lost there as of right now. And we know they’re not regretting getting Verlander or Cole even if they had given up good players.

 

That’s what the Twins need to learn how to do. And while prospect lists weren’t too high on Arraez, it was clear that he could hit. That’s been clear since 2016, at minimum. Just look at his walks vs strikeouts and go from there. He shouldn’t have been seen as such a surprise. Thrylos has been beating that drum for years and it’s the only thing I’ve ever agreed with him on. The questions about Arraez were his defense and no power. He still has time to improve his defense and he can start by being the opening day 2B. Power may come, it may not. I know I never thought Dozier would become a power hitter.

 

I'm not missing the point... I'm saying it isn't always that easy.... Also, I'm saying we are still waiting for them to even trade three good prospects for one player, let alone do it multiple times.... And have it work every time.

I don’t think any of us are saying it’s easy so I guess we’re all in agreement then.

 

I agree with you that this is the perfect time to start doing it. If not now, then they never will. Hopefully they can find a way to keep their best guys like the Astros do and still get very good players in return. Who those best prospects are/were may not be known for another five to ten years. Just because Lewis and Kirilloff are usually one or two on lists doesn’t mean they’ll be good MLB players. Nothing is guaranteed. They have to identify the right ones. Nothing about baseball is easy.

[bird]

 

Sure, every team will try to emulate that philosophy not trading their top prospect. The deal with prospects though is not knowing if the 13th best player on the list will end up with the best MLB career or not.

Arraez could have been thought of a throw in for a trade last year at this time because he was maybe 20th on the prospect list.

 

 

I get that thought, Van, but a couple of things come to mind.

 

The first is that a prospect who is 13th or 20th on Seth's or KLAW's prospect list is most likely in a different slot internally. Tampa thought Palacios was a top 20 guy and maybe the Twins thought he wasn't one of their top 40? We've heard snippets of opinions about Arraez from insiders that would make you wonder if some didn't hold the view that Seth and gang was grossly underrating him. I truly doubt Arraez was ever thought of less highly than Palacios by the Twin's own talent evaluators, and Palacios was not a throw in.

 

The second is that, while nothing is certain, uber elite prospects like Lewis and even Kirilloff are simply in a different class. We can point to so any examples of how, a majority of the time, these guys pan out and become superstar anchors of a franchise.

 

We know so much less about exactly how high a guy's ceiling is than they do. This isn't an appeal to authority. It's simply an acknowledgment that the Lindors, Moncada's, and Bett's out there usually do become studs.

 

There's a good reason to covet and hoard your truly elite prospects, a group you can almost always count on one hand with fingers left over. You can go back and look at any draft class, identify the small number of truly elite prospects, usually numbering from 1 to maybe 4 or 5, and see how few times one of them busted, injuries excepted. I just can't find fault with a FO that decides it has to improve the MLB roster another way than to part with Tatis, Jr., Eloy Jiminez, Gleyber Torrez, Yoan Moncada, Royce Lewis. Note that these are all position players, because who in their right mind would EVER let an Appel or an Aiken slip from their grasp? 

Edited October 19, 2019 by birdwatcher

[bird]

 

I'm not missing the point... I'm saying it isn't always that easy.... Also, I'm saying we are still waiting for them to even trade three good prospects for one player, let alone do it multiple times.... And have it work every time.

 

 

Don't hold your breath. The Houston trading record over the past few years is something no other team has come even close to matching. 

 

We can envy it. We can hope, even expect that directionally speaking we see this behavior.  

 

I think we already have, but unfortunately, it was a regrettable move. You may think the Astro's would have somehow avoided this, and you may also think giving up Teng, Berroa, and Diaz for Dyson doesn't qualify. I do. Those are three good prospects.

 

So you're right. It isn't always that easy. I mean, why did the Dodgers take a stupid pill and give away Yordan Alvarez to Luhnow for nothing? Maybe Luhnow and his group somehow know exactly when someone is about to take a stupid pill? 

[Vanimal46]

I get that thought, Van, but a couple of things come to mind.

 

The first is that a prospect who is 13th or 20th on Seth's or KLAW's prospect list is most likely in a different slot internally. Tampa thought Palacios was a top 20 guy and maybe the Twins thought he wasn't one of their top 40? We've heard snippets of opinions about Arraez from insiders that would make you wonder if some didn't hold the view that Seth and gang was grossly underrating him. I truly doubt Arraez was ever thought of less highly than Palacios by the Twin's own talent evaluators, and Palacios was not a throw in.

 

The second is that, while nothing is certain, uber elite prospects like Lewis and even Kirilloff are simply in a different class. We can point to so any examples of how, a majority of the time, these guys pan out and become superstar anchors of a franchise.

 

We know so much less about exactly how high a guy's ceiling is than they do. This isn't an appeal to authority. It's simply an acknowledgment that the Lindors, Moncada's, and Bett's out there usually do become studs.

 

There's a good reason to covet and hoard your truly elite prospects, a group you can almost always count on one hand with fingers left over. You can go back and look at any draft class, identify the small number of truly elite prospects, usually numbering from 1 to maybe 4 or 5, and see how few times one of them busted, injuries excepted. I just can't find fault with a FO that decides it has to improve the MLB roster another way than to part with Tatis, Jr., Eloy Jiminez, Gleyber Torrez, Yoan Moncada, Royce Lewis. Note that these are all position players, because who in their right mind would EVER let an Appel or an Aiken slip from their grasp?

All fair points Bird. I don't doubt each team has their own individual rankings of prospects different than the industry lists us common folk have access to.

 

The only thing I'll quibble with you is having a different view of Lewis. I don't believe he's an Uber prospect... I can believe Kirilloff is because the bat and stats stick out. He destroyed FSL pitching and got right back on track after his wrist injury in AA.

 

Whereas Lewis was maybe league average in the FSL, below average in AA. I understand the other tools play in, but there are doubts he sticks at SS. He's fast though!

[ChrisKnutson]

Not sure if Boston is even interested in shopping him, but perhaps Eduardo Rodriguez could be an option, especially with the possibility of Betts and Martinez both leaving in the offseason.

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Playing "If I were the VP of Baseball Operations/GM"...

 

Sign Wheeler...trade for Boyd...sign Odorizzi...sign Pineda.

 

Wheeler...Berrios...Boyd...Odorizzi (Odorizzi...Boyd?)...Pineda...

 

Bring it on 2020!

[bird]

 

All fair points Bird. I don't doubt each team has their own individual rankings of prospects different than the industry lists us common folk have access to.

The only thing I'll quibble with you is having a different view of Lewis. I don't believe he's an Uber prospect... I can believe Kirilloff is because the bat and stats stick out. He destroyed FSL pitching and got right back on track after his wrist injury in AA.

Whereas Lewis was maybe league average in the FSL, below average in AA. I understand the other tools play in, but there are doubts he sticks at SS. He's fast though!

 

 

I don't have a personal view of Lewis, and I've caught some of the criticism (KLAW saying he better lose the leg kick and the hitch and can't stick at short). But I also saw him praised as the most impressive prospect in Arizona where he's been spectacular. At 3B and 2B.

 

But Lordy, if your fears are founded that will be problematic.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Gray moving out of Coors might surprise a lot of people... If the Twins see somethign that can bring down Boyd's HR rate, he's also one I'd target in their place. I was pretty hot for Boyd at the deadline. I'm glad that didn't work out.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Was skimming a fangraphs chat from a couple days ago and caught this:

  Trade: biggest name traded this offseason?

  Eric A Longenhagen: robbie ray

  Robbie Ray : best haul for Ray possible?

  Eric A Longenhagen: something centered around clint frazier or maybe a package from MIN around Jeffers+?

 

Seems worth it...