Front Page: Twins Trade Targets: 4 Potential Starting Pitching Upgrades

[Cooper Carlson]

The Minnesota Twins are in store for a starting rotation overhaul this offseason with only Jose Berrios and Martin Perez under contract. The free agent market will definitely be explored, but the area the Twins could land a top of the rotation starter might be the trade market. With the opportunity to win wide open along with an abundance of prospects, the time is now for Falvey and Levine to make a trade.I will be listing four starters the Twins could acquire via trade along with their age, team and free agency year. While none of them are Noah Sydergaard or Max Scherzer, the trades I listed would definitely help the team.

 

Detroit Tigers: Matthew Boyd, 28, 2023 Free Agent

• 2019 statistics: 4.56 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 4.76 K/BB, 3.3 WAR

Boyd will be very interesting to monitor over the offseason. He was being shopped at the trade deadline, but Detroit was persistent on wanting major league talent which teams in contention were obviously reluctant to part ways with. The hope is that now, after a rough second half (5.51 ERA), the price will drop enough for a team to acquire him.

 

The Tigers southpaw is extremely talented, but his main problem was giving up the long ball (worst HR/9 in MLB at 1.89). He held an elite 11.56 K/9 while his walk rate dropped from 2018. Boyd would hold a top two or three spot in the rotation until 2023. Now it just depends on what Detroit is asking for.

 

Colorado Rockies: Jon Gray, 27, 2022 Free Agent

• 2019 statistics: 3.84 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 2.68 K/BB, 2.9 WAR

The Rockies are coming off a 91-loss season and could be looking to part ways with a starting pitcher. Gray would be a nice piece for the middle of the Twins rotation, and the Rockies could be a solid team for Eddie Rosario to potentially join because of Coors Field. A trade for Gray would likely require three players who can contribute now or very soon.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates: Joe Musgrove, 26, 2023 Free Agent

• 2019 statistics: 4.44 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 4.03 K/BB, 3.3 WAR

Musgrove is someone whom no one is really talking about, and I first heard his name from Twins Daily contributor Matt Braun on Twitter. He is coming off his best season and at 26-years-old with three years of control, he would slide right in to the long-term rotation plans. He has a fastball/sinker combo that was hit hard last season, but an excellent slider and changeup make for an interesting Wes Johnson fix.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks: Robbie Ray. 28, 2021 Free Agent

• 2019 statistics: 4.34 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 2.4 WAR

Robbie Ray is interesting because he would be a one-year rental, but if the Diamondbacks are open to selling him for a small price then it would be a solid move. Ray is someone I was really hoping the Twins would acquire at the deadline, but ultimately the price was just too high. Hopefully now that Arizona is unlikely to win in 2020, he will be easier to acquire and could slide in as an excellent number four starter.

 

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[DocBauer]

I guess I'd be wondering if any of these really were upgrades. And I'm not taking a shot at them or dismissing their worth. But were the Twins to bring back Odorizzi and Pineda...as has been often speculated/proposed by many of us...I don't know that any of these options are equal to or better than Berrios.

 

Boyd might be if you got a full season out of him like his first half. Detroit needs young talent! The Twins have to spare. Johnson might do wonders for him. Would either team be interested in trading within the division?

 

Gray and Musgrove offer intrigue, though I confess to knowing little about Musgrove. Both fit age wise. What kind of upside might either have? Or rather, what kind of upside do the Twins see?

[Otwins]

A trade makes a lot of sense. Not sure we have openings for all of our prospects. I am a Jon Gray fan. He has very good stuff and can get strikeouts. Get him out of Coors field and see what happens.

[Cooper Carlson]

 

I guess I'd be wondering if any of these really were upgrades. And I'm not taking a shot at them or dismissing their worth. But were the Twins to bring back Odorizzi and Pineda...as has been often speculated/proposed by many of us...I don't know that any of these options are equal to or better than Berrios.

Boyd might be if you got a full season out of him like his first half. Detroit needs young talent! The Twins have to spare. Johnson might do wonders for him. Would either team be interested in trading within the division?

Gray and Musgrove offer intrigue, though I confess to knowing little about Musgrove. Both fit age wise. What kind of upside might either have? Or rather, what kind of upside do the Twins see?

Boyd would definitely be an upgrade and he's only going to continue to get better. Gray and Musgrove would certainly fit in the middle of the rotation as upgrades over Gibson/Perez/Dobnak etc. If Robbie Ray is your #5 starter then you have an excellent rotation.

[David HK]

Gray is the only intriguing one on this list for me. Maybe Ray, too, and we have some history of dealing with AZ.

 

I still want them to keep Jake and Mike, and make a run at MadBum, Ryu or Wheeler tho. I think Cole is out of our reasonable range.

[Jham]

If we wouldn't trade at the deadline when we could have gotten an extra 1/2 season and play offs we knew we were in position for, and almost no competition, can't imagine we will pull off a trade with more teams looking to add, fewer sellers, and every team tied.

 

We're in an awkward position of needing 4 starters. if we only get 1, we'd potentially be better off getting none and using 2020 to continue rebuilding. If we can get 3, we will likely have made a large investment and have raided the farm system such that we'd be pot committed and might as well push all in and get an ace.

 

Knowing the Twins strategy is more of a business model based on selling hope for the future, my guess is we will straddle and shoot for borderline contender. Good enough to keep fans interested and draw sellouts, cheap enough to maximize profits, young enough to sell hope that we're trending up.

[operation mindcrime]

If I remember correctly Jon Gray was chosen one spot ahead of Kohl Stewart in the 2013 draft!

[Richard Swerdlick]

Perez still under contract?? I can't imagine the Twins picking up his 2020 option.

[twinsfanstreif]

 

If I remember correctly Jon Gray was chosen one spot ahead of Kohl Stewart in the 2013 draft!

Yes, most of us were hoping he would drop however that draft had somewhat of a "consensus" top 3 with a pretty stark drop off starting with our pick at #4. Stewart was looked at as a decent risk at #4 because there were a ton of question marks and raw tools from pretty much everyone after that. I remember a decent debate between the couple of outfielders in Frazier and Meadows however we had just selected Buxton the year prior and it wasn't looked at as an organizational need. Obviously Meadows looks like the better pick there but hindsight is 20/20 and he didn't exactly look surefire until recently. I loved Grey in that draft and I'd love him now!

[mitcho8]

I like Gray and Musgrove off that list. I wonder if the Dodgers will make anyone available. Ross Stripling is entering arbitration and Julio Urias is projected to be Super 2.

[beckmt]

Twins need a top of rotation piece, rather than mid level pieces. Like Gray and Musgrove as fall back position, if we cannot resign oderizzi and Pineda. Given Kepler's back issue, would not want to trade Rosario until sure Kepler is healthy. Would rather open checkbook and sign either Cole or Strasburg.

[rdehring]

I know three things about the coming offseason.

 

One, the Twins need to fill three or four spots in their rotation.

 

Two, none of us have a clue how they will go about doing that and who will fill out the rotation, come opening day.

 

Three, many of us will question whatever moves they make.

 

Personally, gonna sit back and enjoy watching what happens over the coming months.  

[JW24]

Like the original poster, I was really interested in Robbie Ray at the deadline this year. He finished 2nd in the NL to Scherzer in K/9, but only Jon Lester averaged more pitches per inning than Ray in the NL (among qualified starters). If the Twins can acquire Ray and figure out how he can reduce his walk rate, he seems like the type of guy who could really break out and challenge for a front-of-rotation spot.

[KGB]

I would be surprised if Colorado traded Gray for position players.  Colorado is not a park pitchers want to pitch in, so they have tried to develop pitchers.  They can always sign position players who want to play in Colorado.  If the Twins want Gray, they are going to have to give up pitching prospects.

 

I think Boyd is a more likely option.  During the race, nobody wanted to trade major league players, but the off-season is different.  If the Twins have confidence in their minor league system, they should be able to make some of the major league talent available. 

[mikelink45]

Musgrove is the only one I want from this list.  Boyd is the best of the worst on Detroit, but that does not make him a quality pitcher who can improve the staff.  I want more upside and more baseline quality in fastball and other pitches.  

I know this is just the first list so hopefully we will see more quality in the next essays.

[Thrylos]

The Twins need 2 starters better than Berrios to compete in the postseason.  These are not it.   I hope that the days of getting the Nolascos and Correias and Pelfreys and passing them as improvements are gone.

[bird]

Not as a fallback move, but as the secondary acquisition after a FA signing of, say, Wheeler, MadBum, or Ryu. Bring back both Odorizzi and Pineda too. This gives you a full rotation likely to give you #2/3 type of performance. Mostly #3, admittedly.

 

Pull Gray out of Coors or Musgrove out of Pittsburgh and see what you can do with them. Trade from excess (Rooker, Gordon, Javier, Baddoo, Miranda, Severino, Celestino, even Rosario perhaps?). Keep your stud prospects, Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Larnach, Duran, Balazovic.

[jmlease1]

I'm always a little leery of starting pitchers going from the NL to the AL these days, especially for a guy that's not a dominating player. 

 

That said, Musgrove might be the guy that interests me most: That FIP suggests he was a little unlucky last year, and maybe with Wes Johnson adding a tick or two to the fastball the K/9 jumps up a notch as well. He's going to need some kind of adjustment to really be a quality starter, but there are some things that make him an interesting option. In this homer-happy environment his ability to keep the ball in the park is intriguing. But you would have to think Wes could make some adjustments to improve performance, because he's also never had a positive ERA+

 

Gray...probably contingent on how much you think getting out of Coors Field for half the season will help him. His career splits suggest it won't necessarily matter that much: he's basically been the same pitcher home or away, so you're relying on an assumption that the secondary impacts of pitching way up there consistently impact performance everywhere. He's had some good seasons, but control is a bit of a problem.

 

Ray gets a ton of Ks and is tough to hit, but man that's a lot of walks! 2017 feels a bit like a fluke year, and I dunno how much I want to give up for 216 or 2019 Robbie Ray?

 

Boyd feels like a waste of time, because I just don't see Detroit dealing him within the division without a substantial premium that I just don't have any interest in paying.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Not as a fallback move, but as the secondary acquisition after a FA signing of, say, Wheeler, MadBum, or Ryu. Bring back both Odorizzi and Pineda too. This gives you a full rotation likely to give you #2/3 type of performance. Mostly #3, admittedly.

 

Pull Gray out of Coors or Musgrove out of Pittsburgh and see what you can do with them. Trade from excess (Rooker, Gordon, Javier, Baddoo, Miranda, Severino, Celestino, even Rosario perhaps?). Keep your stud prospects, Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Larnach, Duran, Balazovic.

Trade for good players, without dealing good prospects? That's not how it works. That's not what Houston, or the Yankees, or the red Sox, or any of the winners do it.

[Brandon]

There is a pitcher with a large 3 year commitment remaining on a team that wants to cut payroll. If Boston would pay down Price's contact a little we probably wouldn't have to give up too much talent to get him. Have us responsible for 4 years 60-75 million of the 96 million and Boston gets to lower their payroll.

[Vanimal46]

All of these pitchers would be a fine replacement for Gibson. I would love to aim higher on another player like Wheeler, MadBum, or Ryu.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Trade for good players, without dealing good prospects? That's not how it works. That's not what Houston, or the Yankees, or the red Sox, or any of the winners do it.

 

I don't know that I would consider these four pitchers on the same level as any of the pitchers for Houston or the Red Sox when they traded for them.

Edited October 17, 2019 by SF Twins Fan

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know that I would consider these four pitchers on the same level as any of the pitchers for Houston or the Red Sox when they traded for them.

That's not the content I was replying to.... But agreed.

[bird]

 

Trade for good players, without dealing good prospects? That's not how it works. That's not what Houston, or the Yankees, or the red Sox, or any of the winners do it.

 

 

I believe you're describing Houston's trade history inaccurately, Mike. They traded smartly, from prospect surplus, but they did not trade anyone like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Brusdar Graterol. To their credit, they HAVE made a handful of trades maybe even more brilliant than the Palacios for Odorizzi trade.

 

You mention the Yankees. Why not mention the Cubs? They dealt a good prospect to the Yankees for a good player. Gleyber Torrez might end up being a league MVP and an absolute stud for a decade. 

 

Why not mention the White Sox? We might hate facing their lineup as early as next year when good prospects surface: Kopech, Moncada, Giolito, Jiminez...

Edited October 17, 2019 by birdwatcher

[raindog]

Y'all. Imagine Matthew Boyd going from Rick Anderson to Wes Johnson. With his stuff, and a legit pitching coach, he's going to be great. 

 

Especially if MLB goes back to a normal baseball, which would help with his biggest weakness. Not that we can count on that. 

Edited October 17, 2019 by raindog

[Mike Sixel]

I believe you're describing Houston's trade history with inaccurately, Mike. They traded smartly, from prospect surplus, but they did not trade anyone like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Brusdar Graterol. To their credit, they HAVE made a handful of trades maybe even more brilliant than the Palacios for Odorizzi trade.

 

You mention the Yankees. Why not mention the Cubs? They dealt a good prospect to the Yankees for a good player. Gleyber Torrez might end up being a league MVP and an absolute stud for a decade.

 

Why not mention the White Sox? We might hate facing their lineup as early as next year when good prospects surface: Kopech, Moncada, Giolito, Jiminez...

The Cubs win the world series, and until this year made the playoffs....

 

Sometimes trades work, and sometimes not. But suggesting never trading top prospects.... That seems unrealistic to me, if you want great players in return. I could be wrong, maybe they can get great players back without every dealing actual good or great prospects....

[nicksaviking]

I'd like Gray quite a bit. I could take a chance on Ray as well, I don't think he's as good as his numbers but I also don't think AZ is the best place to unlock potential, there might still be more to him.

 

No interest in Boyd.

 

Musgrove is interesting though. He doesn't wow anyone, but the guy can and does throw every pitch under the sun, I love that repertoire. Also, I'm interested in the fact that he saw a velocity drop at the beginning of last year but he saw it increase through the season and by September he was averaging 95 MPH on his four seamer. Yeah, I like the idea of Musgrove not yet hitting his peak, I'm in.

 

Also, still get Gray too.

[Number3]

A kind of quandary is that its hard to improve upon a regular season record of 101 games won. Any tinkering with a lineup that did that will have unknown results. There is always some shuffling of players so that will happen anyway. Assuming Pineda comes back I hope the Twins don't take the playoffs for granted and mess too much with a team to get to October games that may never come. Fact is and always will be that everyone needs more pitching all the time if not starters its bull pen. I'm sure they will find a couple of arms somewhere. No question Gibson should be replaced in the initial plan but maybe Sano can help out in the DR this year and Gibson can stay home and put on some weight.

[bird]

 

The Cubs win the world series, and until this year made the playoffs....

Sometimes trades work, and sometimes not. But suggesting never trading top prospects.... That seems unrealistic to me, if you want great players in return. I could be wrong, maybe they can get great players back without every dealing actual good or great prospects....

 

 

Who has suggested never trading top prospects, Mike? 

 

The facts are there for you to see with respect to the trades. I've made an effort to help you examine those facts. When you use vague terms like "great players" and "actual good or great prospects" instead of doing a deeper dive, you're suggesting that you may be more interested in your point of view than you are in much else.

 

The Cubs? I don't know, Mike. Maybe you're right, and the singular reason they win the world series is because they trade actual good or great prospects for great players in return. 

[jkcarew]

Like others here, I think these names probably would work...they go in the middle of the rotation. But, we also need help at the top.