Front Page: ALDS Takeaways, Part 2: Miguel Sanó and the Athleticism Gap

[Steve Lein]

 

I don't want to waste Lewis's speed by putting him at 3rd....

 

Honest opinion after watching plenty of Lewis this year at SS and seeing how he has fared at 3B in the AFL.

 

He's a better third baseman than SS.

[SarasotaBill]

I see Lewis replacing Gonzalez's role in 2021.

 

Playing everyday but at different positions: 3B, SS, 2B, and OF.

 

[Jham]

Honest opinion after watching plenty of Lewis this year at SS and seeing how he has fared at 3B in the AFL.

 

He's a better third baseman than SS.

His bat doesn't clearly play at a corner. Needs to stay up the middle, consistently hit better, or get traded. Fans on this site were scoffed and laughed at for bringing up his struggles this season. Then he plummeted down prospect rankings after the season. I'm so sick of watching this team sell nothing but hope. But it's a brilliant marketing strategy...

[Shaitan]

 

If the Twins could find a Schoop like 3rd baseman to hold down the fort until June....then cross your fingers and hope Lewis is ready.
I wondered the same a few different times during the ALDS on why players were playing so far off the line. Like Sano and Rosario.

 

The whole series felt like gross overmanagement to me. The Yankees were hitting it through every shift and the pitching changes were questionable.

 

I know many people this postseason requires a different strategy, but I'm of the view that (especially for innings 1-7), do what got you to the postseason.

 

[bunt_vs_the_shift]

To me, the whole "who's on 3rd?" conversation is less about Sano's defensive metrics than the net difference between Cron and his replacement. Sano is adequate at 3rd. He has a cannon and is surprisingly agile at times, but can't necessarily make all the plays you'd like. 

 

I like the idea about "position flexibility" more than having a firm stance about where he needs to play. Sano at 3rd gives you the option to experiment with someone like Kiriloff at 1st and with Sano at 1st, you could give Royce Lewis a look at 3rd (or shuffle around in some way that you could insert him). I don't know if either guy will be ready by spring, but a scenario where you could bat those guys down in the lineup and ease them along without a ton of pressure is ideal. I'm not saying that was their plan in the Schoop situation, but it worked out pretty well with Arraez... 

[Dantes929]

 

I think Polanco's eventual position will be third base. He played there some as he was coming up and would be much less of a liability there than at short. That leaves a hole at short, but I'm hoping one of our vaunted SS prospects pan out in the next two years. Until then I think riding with Sano at third (or first if Gonzalez starts) should be serviceable. 

 

We need to remember that the Twins won over 100 games with this lineup and defense. Some changes/adjustments may be needed, but the reason we lost in the playoffs is because of pitching.

I think I counted 6 runs  or so against us because of bad defense.   We scored 7 runs in 3 games.    Tampa scored a run per game better against a much better rotation than the Yankees..   Nationals scored 2 runs a game more than we did against a much better rotation.   We scored 4, 2 and 1.    Pitching wasn't good but there were plenty of other reasons we lost in the playoffs.  I agree that Polanco could be a good choice for 3rd.    A rocket arm helps but mobility and quickness are just as important..   How do we feel about Adrianza?   He was really quite good with the bat this year.   Do we like his defense at short?    Polanco at 3rd, Adrianza at short, Arraez at 2nd and Sano at 3rd with Gonzalez backing up seems better than what we currently have.

[Jham]

Do we have actual evidence that 3b defense is more important than 1b? I criticized playing Sano at 3rd and Marwin at 1st based on the assumption that you should pt the stronger defender at 3rd rather than 1st.

 

From what I saw, Sano is pretty bad at first. Pretty bad at 3rd. But his arm plays at 3rd at least. his range sucks either way. his hands are in my opinion below average. I think 1b is more important, involved in more plays. And I believe Sano is better at third than at first. And that Marwin is better at both. Therefore, Marwin at first and Sano at 3rd is better than the transverse. 3b hides Sano the most, and utilizes his strength.

 

Twins fans 4 years ago: Big guys CAN'T play a good RF.

 

Aaron Judge: Hold my beer.

 

Fans: I literally can't even reach your bee...

 

Judge: Tosses beer in the air, lays out and snares liner over his head, then catches beer without spilling a drop and chugs it as a third arm reveals itself to throw a 95 mph strike to the cutoff man.

[Steve Lein]

 

His bat doesn't clearly play at a corner. Needs to stay up the middle, consistently hit better, or get traded. Fans on this site were scoffed and laughed at for bringing up his struggles this season. Then he plummeted down prospect rankings after the season. I'm so sick of watching this team sell nothing but hope. But it's a brilliant marketing strategy...

 

I wouldn't be so quick to say that. He's got more juice than you're thinking. He puts on a power show in batting practices.

 

MLB.com also ranked the top tools in the AFL this week, and he was on the list for Best Hitter and Best Power (also Fastest Runner).

 

He certainly needs to put it together better than he did in the regular season this year, but he's also incredibly young versus his competition.

[Jham]

I wouldn't be so quick to say that. He's got more juice than you're thinking. He puts on a power show in batting practices.

 

MLB.com also ranked the top tools in the AFL this week, and he was on the list for Best Hitter and Best Power (also Fastest Runner).

 

He certainly needs to put it together better than he did in the regular season this year, but he's also incredibly young versus his competition.

Nothing's in stone. But he's a number 1 overall pick. His competition isn't the AFL, it's other No.1 picks and MLB's top stars. If he's not that type of player, it's starting to appear he's not, then pretending he is is counterproductive to planning for the future unless you're trading up. If we're predicting Marwin Gonzales upside, and other teams still see him as Carlos Correa, we should trade him. If we think he's Correa then his bat plays wherever. Correa and Gonzo are both good players, but not equal. Edited October 11, 2019 by Jham

[justinone]

 

I think I counted 6 runs  or so against us because of bad defense.   We scored 7 runs in 3 games.    Tampa scored a run per game better against a much better rotation than the Yankees..   Nationals scored 2 runs a game more than we did against a much better rotation.   We scored 4, 2 and 1.    Pitching wasn't good but there were plenty of other reasons we lost in the playoffs.  I agree that Polanco could be a good choice for 3rd.    A rocket arm helps but mobility and quickness are just as important..   How do we feel about Adrianza?   He was really quite good with the bat this year.   Do we like his defense at short?    Polanco at 3rd, Adrianza at short, Arraez at 2nd and Sano at 3rd with Gonzalez backing up seems better than what we currently have.

 

You're right--there was some poor defense. The big ones being Arraez dropping the bloop and Cron dropping the double play relay. Some of those things are just going to happen sometimes. Yes the Rays played pretty well, but the Astros scored less than 4 runs per game and they won. They didn't have their best offense most of the series. The difference between the Astros and Rays was that Gerrit Cole almost single-handedly won two games for them. We don't have that. We can't overcome a poor offensive or defensive showing. I would like to be able to win without everything going perfectly. 

Edited October 11, 2019 by justinone

[SoDakTwinsFan4]

Anthony Rendon. Solved, fixed, done, concluded...oh, sorry I dozed off there for a moment. What were we talking about again?

[rv78]

Who on this team has good range? Sano doesn't, Polanco doesn't, Arraez doesn't. Cron isn't bad but I don't think he falls into the great catagory. Rosario doesn't. Buxton sure as h*ll doesn't when he is on the IL. Kepler is decent. Garver and Castro had more passed balls than I like to see. But hey, they set the record for HomeRuns and went quietly on their way to the off-season because of #1.Their Pitching, #2.They can't manufacture runs. #3.Inexperienced management. 

 

#1. Berrios is a #3 or #4 starter, not an ACE. Get the best available or get out of the way. Cole should be priority #1 this off-season or you're already throwing in the towel for 2020.

#2.HomeRuns are great but it has been said a thousand times, solo Homeruns will never beat you. Got to get some guys that can hit and get on base in front of the boppers. Then if they are shut down you have to be able to manufacture runs. 

#3.Hopefully Baldelli learned his lesson. You don't save anyone for another game and you play your best from the start. I'll be the first to agree, he had limited choices to work with in the playoffs, and you can blame the GM's and ownership for that. 2020 will define this team and the true intentions of the Front Office and the Pohlads. Go Big or Go Home. Be a Champion or be a Laughing stock in the Bronx again. The choice is theirs. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nothing's in stone. But he's a number 1 overall pick. His competition isn't the AFL, it's other No.1 picks and MLB's top stars. If he's not that type of player, it's starting to appear he's not, then pretending he is is counterproductive to planning for the future unless you're trading up. If we're predicting Marwin Gonzales upside, and other teams still see him as Carlos Correa, we should trade him. If we think he's Correa then his bat plays wherever. Correa and Gonzo are both good players, but not equal.

Lewis was impressive in a short 2017. He was very impressive in 2018. He had a bad 2019.

 

We don’t need to adjust expectations over one bad season that was reported to have some coaching-directed adjustments in it.

 

Next year will tell us a lot.

[Old Twins Cap]

It's just not that complicated:

 

Sano is below average at 3B, despite his impressive arm and surprising agility.

 

And, he is exposed to injury at 3B.

 

Move him to 1B and you improve the infield defense by subtraction, and protect a major asset of the lineup.

 

Ergo:  Move Sano to 1B and find a stellar player for 3B.
 

For the naysayers:  please list in order of accomplishment the number of 6'4" 280 lb 3B in all of MLB history.

 

I can help with that. 

 

None.

[Dantes929]

 

You're right--there was some poor defense. The big ones being Arraez dropping the bloop and Cron dropping the double play relay. Some of those things are just going to happen sometimes. Yes the Rays played pretty well, but the Astros scored less than 4 runs per game and they won. They didn't have their best offense most of the series. The difference between the Astros and Rays was that Gerrit Cole almost single-handedly won two games for them. We don't have that. We can't overcome a poor offensive or defensive showing. I would like to be able to win without everything going perfectly. 

Yeah, I mostly agree.   I just think the Yankees took good at bats, they played good defense (Judge is the only right fielder in baseball that gets that Sano liner), and they pitched well.   They played all phases well with respect to their abilities.   Twins did not defend well, they did not pitch well and they did not hit well (how many 3-2 counts did they swing at ball 4?)   They played all phases below their abilities.   I just don't buy that they were out manned so much as outplayed.   I would prefer a #1 that is better than Berrios but if Cole can't find his best pitch like Berrios couldn't find his curve ball or can't find the plate like Littell then he is not going to singlehandedly win anything.     We saw that with playoff veteran Greinke.   That's baseball and that's the playoffs.   

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

(Judge is the only right fielder in baseball that gets that Sano liner)   

The sad trombone sound is the realization that Max Kepler is one of the few RF good enough to also get that ball.

[RaoulDuke]

 

Defense matters. The whole infield is sub par including Sano. I wanted a strong SS with Polanco moving to second. That would have made a considerable difference. I don’t know what you do with Arreaz. His bat is great but in the field not so much

This is a real problem facing the Twins.  Polanco/ Arraez is very nice with the bat but really lacking defense, add Sano at 3rd to that and your infield is a major issue.  Royce Lewis is coming and really only adds to the problem.  Maybe one of these guys is the piece to trade for pitching? 

[Jham]

Lewis was impressive in a short 2017. He was very impressive in 2018. He had a bad 2019.

 

We don’t need to adjust expectations over one bad season that was reported to have some coaching-directed adjustments in it.

 

Next year will tell us a lot.

I mostly agree with your assessment. I also think sometimes prospect evaluation is a bit of a rorshach test. you can see what you want to see, and what you see is often guided by bias and expectations.

 

Evaluators who see a young heady toolsy player with charisma can see his speed playing at any position and his bat developing along the way. Those seeing a first overall pick and finding a natural recent comp in Carlos Correa might find even his early success relatively disappointing in comparison. Correa was up in 3rd season at 20 years of age, cruising through 3 levels and dominating at a level that Lewis isn't close to.

 

I'm not swayed by the swing alteration. The fact that they had to make such drastic adjustment so early in his career and his inability to adjust does not suggest the natural talent of a top 5 MLB SS (or 3b or cf). On top of that, evidently there are large doubts on his ability to stick at short. Now the talk is 3b over center field, and frankly nothing suggests his bat will be better than average at a corner, nor that his glove will be elite there either.

 

Dude ops mid .600s at the same age and levels than Correa was opsing 1.000 and jumping to the show. Ditto Corey Seager. For most prospects, it's whatever. For our top prospect and a former #1 overall, I don't see how this is anything but alarming.

 

Agree that next year is important. Lewis has to play half the year like fall league (as opposed to even his 2018 numbers) and hit the majors in order to really have a realistic chance at hitting his ceiling.

 

Right now it appears that he'll ops in the mid .700 with average to above average power. Basically Trevor Plouffe with speed. If that excites you about a 1 overall, you're wearing very Twins colored glasses, imo.

Edited October 12, 2019 by Jham

[Brock Beauchamp]

I mostly agree with your assessment. I also think sometimes prospect evaluation is a bit of a rorshach test. you can see what you want to see, and what you see is often guided by bias and expectations.

 

Evaluators who see a young heady toolsy player with charisma can see his speed playing at any position and his bat developing along the way. Those seeing a first overall pick and finding a natural recent comp in Carlos Correa might find even his early success relatively disappointing in comparison. Correa was up in 3rd season at 20 years of age, cruising through 3 levels and dominating at a level that Lewis isn't close to.

 

I'm not swayed by the swing alteration. The fact that they had to make such drastic adjustment so early in his career and his inability to adjust does not suggest the natural talent of a top 5 MLB SS (or 3b or cf). On top of that, evidently there are large doubts on his ability to stick at short. Now the talk is 3b over center field, and frankly nothing suggests his bat will be better than average at a corner, nor that his glove will be elite there either.

 

Dude ops mid .600s at the same age and levels than Correa was opsing 1.000 and jumping to the show. Ditto Corey Seager. For most prospects, it's whatever. For our top prospect and a former #1 overall, I don't see how this is anything but alarming.

 

Agree that next year is important. Lewis has to play half the year like fall league (as opposed to even his 2018 numbers) and hit the majors in order to really have a realistic chance at hitting his ceiling.

 

Right now it appears that he'll ops in the mid .700 with average to above average power. Basically Trevor Plouffe with speed. If that excites you about a 1 overall, you're wearing very Twins colored glasses, imo.

Wow, you’re drawing an insane number of conclusions about a prospect who had an off season.

 

Yeah, having an off season doesn’t look great. But to say he won’t hit his ceiling or that he’s not living up to #1 overall performance is wildly jumping the gun.

 

Not every player has a neat, tidy approach to the majors, yet that doesn't prevent them from later becoming a star any more than ripping through the minors prevents a player from becoming a bust.

[ashbury]

The sad trombone sound is the realization that Max Kepler is one of the few RF good enough to also get that ball.

His manager would assess him a hefty fine if he did that.

 

 

^{_{(Came to make the same remark you did, so I'm left with the absurdist postscript I would have added. )}}

[Kelly Vance]

Miggie is our third baseman and I am happy with that. He has a cannon and has made great improvements from after surgery. His weight is down and his agility is improving. Remember, he had a titanium rod in his leg. He makes some incredible plays sometimes. In  ALDS, he was out of position on two plays. That's on the coaches not Miggie.  And for some reason, Miggie's headlong dives for those balls escapes mention. I see guts and desire in this guy and I am so glad we have him. 

 

Besides all that, he has improved his hitting immensely.He has 50 HR potential. He is being more selective at the plate.  You see shots of the bench, he is always being positive for others, so he is a great teammate. 

 

I hope they extend him for 5, and I hope I don't see any more hit pieces on the guy.  That's just not  fair

[DannySD]

 

Sure, if the team cybernetically grafts Sano's right arm to Jorge's body.

 

Otherwise, Polanco should move to second base, even if it requires trading either Jorge or Arraez (though I wouldn't do either this season unless the offer is absurd and impossible to resist).

 

Shortstop throws are generally considered longer and more difficult than 3rd baseman throws, which I'm sure you already know, so whatever you were attempting to point out doesn't make sense to me. But yes he could also play second.  

[Dantes929]

 

The sad trombone sound is the realization that Max Kepler is one of the few RF good enough to also get that ball.

Kepler isn't 6'7 with a 7' wingspan on a liner with short air time.   I'm not sure any other right fielder in the history of baseball makes that catch.  I might be overstating it but that was what I thought when seeing it live.

[Riverbrian]

 

The problem wasn't really specific to just Sano.  Our whole infield was poor defensively.

 

Polanco is tied for dead last (32nd) in UZR at SS with a minimum of 500 innings. (-9.1 UZR)

 

Schoop was 25th of 31 in UZR at 2B with the 500 minimum innings (Arraez had 390 innings at 2B but was even worse in UZR than Schoop, -5.0 UZR for Arraez and -3.7 for Schoop)

 

Cron was 19th of 29 in UZR at 1st with more than 500 innings. (-0.6 UZR)

 

Sano was 29th of 32 at 3rd (-6.7 UZR).  Marwin Gonzalez had 291 innings but a decent 2.6 UZR.

 

UZR ignores all plays determined affected by a shift. Determined by a stringer but will include plays not determined to have been affected even if a shift is employed. (The stat itself, is attempting to ignore shifting in order to keep the zones and data of the past valid). His range will only be measured if he stands here. 

 

The Twins shift 36% of the time. 

 

The more you shift, the less data used, the less data used, the increased weight of individual plays. 

 

Weighting is already insanely high due to the routine-ness of most plays and the total chances each player gets over the course of the season. 

 

Arraez for example: Missed a month before being called up, He had 40% of his playing time somewhere besides 2B. the Twins shift 36% of the time. And... most plays are simply ground balls hit within easy reach of where he is standing... even more so because of the shift.  So... how reliable is his 2B UZR rating that you quote?   

 

Just one play not made in a zone where a play is usually made is weighted HEAVILY and will take a lot of time to stabilize., if you don't play a lot of time at that position, or if you the data doesn't count because of the shift and your team shifts alot... the less chances to stabilize it. 

 

UZR is half baked. 

[Nine of twelve]

 

It's just not that complicated:

 

Sano is below average at 3B, despite his impressive arm and surprising agility.

 

And, he is exposed to injury at 3B.

 

Move him to 1B and you improve the infield defense by subtraction, and protect a major asset of the lineup.

 

Ergo:  Move Sano to 1B and find a stellar player for 3B.
 

For the naysayers:  please list in order of accomplishment the number of 6'4" 280 lb 3B in all of MLB history.

 

I can help with that. 

 

None.

I can help with that. Troy Glaus at his peak was a very good 3B. 4-time All-Star and 2002 World Series MVP. 6'5", 245 or so when he was playing his best. Not exactly like Sano in physical dimensions but certainly comparable.

[Nine of twelve]

 

I think it's only a matter of time before Sano moves off third, now seems as good a time as any. Try first base for a year. 

 

Dunno what to do about 3rd.

I agree that it's only a matter of time before Sano moves to first. But that doesn't necessarily mean the time is now. Picture the 2019 roster (or 2020 roster) with a healthy Sano at 3B all year long and a healthy Cron at 1B all year long. If we have a good 1B Sano is fine at 3B for the next few years. If we acquire a very good 3B and there is an opening at 1B, then yes, of course move him over.

Edited October 12, 2019 by Nine of twelve

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wow, you’re drawing an insane number of conclusions about a prospect who had an off season.

Yeah, having an off season doesn’t look great. But to say he won’t hit his ceiling or that he’s not living up to #1 overall performance is wildly jumping the gun.

 

Not every player has a neat, tidy approach to the majors, yet that doesn't prevent them from later becoming a star any more than ripping through the minors prevents a player from becoming a bust.

 

How about ONE of the top picks for this team doing that. Just once......Sky rocket to the majors in 2 years and be very good right away w/o stopping. Just once.*

 

*and no, this isn't about the FO, it's lamenting that for some reason we just aren't getting that. It's no one's fault.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

UZR ignores all plays determined affected by a shift. Determined by a stringer but will include plays not determined to have been affected even if a shift is employed. (The stat itself, is attempting to ignore shifting in order to keep the zones and data of the past valid). His range will only be measured if he stands here. 

 

The Twins shift 36% of the time. 

 

The more you shift, the less data used, the less data used, the increased weight of individual plays. 

 

Weighting is already insanely high due to the routine-ness of most plays and the total chances each player gets over the course of the season. 

 

Arraez for example: Missed a month before being called up, He had 40% of his playing time somewhere besides 2B. the Twins shift 36% of the time. And... most plays are simply ground balls hit within easy reach of where he is standing... even more so because of the shift.  So... how reliable is his 2B UZR rating that you quote?   

 

Just one play not made in a zone where a play is usually made is weighted HEAVILY and will take a lot of time to stabilize., if you don't play a lot of time at that position, or if you the data doesn't count because of the shift and your team shifts alot... the less chances to stabilize it. 

 

UZR is half baked. 

 

There are lots of different defensive metrics.....do any of them like the Twins' infield defense? 

[ashbury]

Marwin Gonzalez is a good choice as a replacement for Sano at third base, at least until Lewis is ready.  Marwin's career range factor at 3b in 133 games is 2.74.  This would rank 7th in major league baseball this year, just ahead of Jose Ramirez.   

That's if you want Marwin's bat in the lineup every day. I don't. His defense at the less-skilled positions (LF, 3B) is good, but his bat is looking more and more like 2017 was an anomaly, and will not suddenly improve again.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

How about ONE of the top picks for this team doing that. Just once......Sky rocket to the majors in 2 years and be very good right away w/o stopping. Just once.*

 

*and no, this isn't about the FO, it's lamenting that for some reason we just aren't getting that. It's no one's fault.....

Oh, I agree. It'd be nice if someone fast-tracked to the majors and succeeded for once.