Front Page: ALDS Takeaways, Part 2: Miguel Sanó and the Athleticism Gap

[insagt1]

 

I think a lot of people have a bias against Sano. Since he has gotten himself in shape and transformed himself to one of the premier right handed power hitters in the game, there is really only one place left to focus that distaste: his defense.

Is his defense stellar? No. Is really as bad as some would like you to believe? No.

How many 3B would’ve made those plays? Are we going to chastise a guy for not being an Arenado level defender at the hot corner?

Where are articles demanding Polanco to be mixed from shortstop? If I wasn’t a Polanco fan (he has his own skeletons with the PED issue) I could point to him being second to Tim Anderson for the MLB lead in errors (while Anderson recorded more opportunities, more out outs, was in on more double plays, etc.). That’s certainly not ideal.

Why is Cron considered a good defender around here? His drop on the double play was massive, and infinitely more routine than a sprawling backhanded play on a smash down the 3B line.

The list goes on. I understand that Sano isn’t the best defender in the league at 3B. But, he’s certainly not the worst. He’s very adept at coming in on balls, and his arm allows him to play in such a position that he may get to some balls other 3Bs can’t (can play deeper).

There is value in having that bat at 3B. Until recently (with Devers, Chapman, etc emerging), that position was a Barron wasteland offensively for half a decade. If you’re not plugging in someone who can hit at his level, you’re taking a lot of runs off the board next year. Especially when you consider the decline that will already be built in due to regression and the ball (we saw how that killed the Twins in the playoffs, who need multiple home runs to win a game).

I get this is the time for speculation. But, this topic has been beaten and beaten and beaten. There is a reason why the Twins braintrust, widely considered among the sharpest in the MLB (thus the world), decided the team is better off at 3B. This team didn’t lose the playoff series because Sano was unable to make one of the most epic plays we would’ve seen in this entire postseason (but some want you to think it’s routine). The primary reason this team lost, if we need to get into that, was Baldelli’s awful management. The thing was over once he decided to punt game 1 and bring AAA relievers into Yankee stadium. Second was the front-offices inability to solidify the pitching staff (I said all year it was going to rear it’s head eventually). Third was the offense dropping the bats and placing both hands firmly around their own necks. Fourth were the numerous defensive miscues on plus that were realistic to be made (Cave, Arraez, Cron). Fourth was whatever was wrong with Max Kepler.

The point that kind of burns me about the constant scapegoating with Sano was brought up in the article. He’s not responsible for his defensive alignment. And off all people to shift on, is Brett Gardner really included? Sure, maybe the short term numbers say that, but he’s sprayed the ball all over the field for his entire career.

I like Sano. You get a stud 3B that can hit? By all means move him to 1st. But, there are much bigger problems this team needs to address, and it’s not even close.

Well written and thought out! I haven't decided if I'm a Sano fan or not. I don't think he single-handedly cost us the series for sure. But I am a bit wary of his way too high number of k's. 8 out of 12 AB's with a 'k' in the most important games of the year still make me wonder if that will ever change with him.

But, while his series was butt-ugly...he had a lot of company. It was indeed a total team effort in blowing those games....and the manager is right up there too.

[insagt1]

 

Miggie is our third baseman and I am happy with that. He has a cannon and has made great improvements from after surgery. His weight is down and his agility is improving. Remember, he had a titanium rod in his leg. He makes some incredible plays sometimes. In  ALDS, he was out of position on two plays. That's on the coaches not Miggie.  And for some reason, Miggie's headlong dives for those balls escapes mention. I see guts and desire in this guy and I am so glad we have him. 

 

Besides all that, he has improved his hitting immensely.He has 50 HR potential. He is being more selective at the plate.  You see shots of the bench, he is always being positive for others, so he is a great teammate. 

 

I hope they extend him for 5, and I hope I don't see any more hit pieces on the guy.  That's just not  fair

What is so frustrating is just when we all say (including the TV guys) that his hitting has improved a lot, he regresses back to all the swings at pitches way out of the zone and just plain misses. For all his raw power, I think if a one run game is on the line with men on base, I'd rather see Arraez at the plate. I don't think Sano is going to change that much. If he plays a full season, he'll crack the 200 k barrier for sure.

[Jham]

Wow, you’re drawing an insane number of conclusions about a prospect who had an off season.

 

Yeah, having an off season doesn’t look great. But to say he won’t hit his ceiling or that he’s not living up to #1 overall performance is wildly jumping the gun.

 

Not every player has a neat, tidy approach to the majors, yet that doesn't prevent them from later becoming a star any more than ripping through the minors prevents a player from becoming a bust.

I'm not saying he can't be Seager (18 overall) or Coreia (1 overall). I'm saying it doesn't look like he'll have that kind of immediate impact which you might want from a 1 overall. If he ends up as more of a project, well I think it's fair to have higher expectations for a first overall pick who peaked inside top 10 overall prospect lists.

 

And once again, he put up good single A and rookie ball numbers, but not what I'd consider eye popping. At the very least, I don't think we can bank on him being an upgrade over anything we have now or even a replacement in 2020.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not saying he can't be Seager (18 overall) or Coreia (1 overall). I'm saying it doesn't look like he'll have that kind of immediate impact which you might want from a 1 overall. If he ends up as more of a project, well I think it's fair to have higher expectations for a first overall pick who peaked inside top 10 overall prospect lists.

 

And once again, he put up good single A and rookie ball numbers, but not what I'd consider eye popping. At the very least, I don't think we can bank on him being an upgrade over anything we have now or even a replacement in 2020.

That’s reasonable. Given his rough 2019, seeing him in Minnesota late in 2020 becomes pretty unlikely.

 

As for how he starts his MLB career, pretty much impossible to predict that. How MILB skills translate to MLB pitchers is a mystery. See Arraez, Luis.

[JadenPoint]

Speaking of players who are looking like a bust, how about Stewart 4th overall? Just think of the players the Twins could've drafted in '13, including Tim Anderson, Aaron Judge, Hunter Dozier, Austin Meadows.. I know, hindsight

[bird]

 

His bat doesn't clearly play at a corner. Needs to stay up the middle, consistently hit better, or get traded. Fans on this site were scoffed and laughed at for bringing up his struggles this season. Then he plummeted down prospect rankings after the season. I'm so sick of watching this team sell nothing but hope. But it's a brilliant marketing strategy...

 

 

From what I'm reading from our own Steve Lien and others, I think plenty of scouts would disagree with limitations regarding his bat. He's been maybe THE standout in the Arizona Fall League with 3 HR's and 7 2B's in 13 games. He's drifted lower in the prospect rankings. Some have soured on him for sure. It'll be interesting to see if his showing in Arizona boosts his standings when the mid-winter rankings come out.

 

We have six position prospects who could be ready in 2020: Lewis is doubtful in that regard, but his talent makes it possible. Kirilloff could be groomed as Cron's replacement. Larnach might allow them to move Rosario at the deadline. Wade's ready to replace Cave right now. Rooker could be ready too, as a OF/DH backup. Gordon doesn't have a spot right now.

 

If I had to make the call, I'd bring back Cron and Castro if possible and leave everyone in place. If Lewis gave me better SS play when his bat is ready, I'd move Polanco to 2B and insert Lewis at SS, throw Kirilloff in at 1B/OF, relegate Luis Arraez to a Gonzales-like role, with the plan to trade from all the riches at the right opportunity. That might be Rooker and Gordon, or it might be Rosario and Arraez, who knows? Depends upon who emerges and which combo is an upgrade. I'm pretty sure it wouldn't involve a trade of Sano or Buxton, as I think they both probably have higher ceilings.

[Riverbrian]

There are lots of different defensive metrics.....do any of them like the Twins' infield defense?

 

I don’t know... I don’t pay much attention to them. Is there a defensive metric that cuts through the routine-ness that comprises typical defense and provides a repeatable, stable result without wild swings?

 

Point it out and I promise that I’ll open eyes and give it a fair shake.

 

UZR... I’m not going to pay much attention to a stat that tells me a certain player is 7.0 in LF and -1.5 in RF. Or a stat that produces a 4.0 in 2017 followed by a -1.5 in 2018 and then 4.0 in 2019 for the same player at the same position. The discrepancy is sample size related and a full season doesn’t seem to provide a stable enough sample based on the wild swings from year to year and position to position.

[FritzDahmus]

Good plan Mr. Mathew Trueblood [author of this article and the plan to move Sano to First Base]. Put this plan on a to-do list. Stick it to the fridge with a Twins Schedule magnet.

 

But first:

Re-sign Cron, and then teach him out to dig out errant throws.

Congratulate Sano on being one of the best defensive players the Twins had versus the Yankees.

Sign 2 "impactful" starters and 2 "impactful" relievers.

Beat the f%$king Yankees.

 

[ashbury]

UZR... I’m not going to pay much attention to a stat that tells me a certain player is 7.0 in LF and -1.5 in RF.

Do these numbers, and the ones below, pertain to specific individuals, or just numbers pulled to make a point? Maybe they're in reference to discussion up-thread and I've forgotten.

 

Early this season Marwin, who came here with a good rep in LF, was absolutely brutal in RF. He'd basically never played there before, and it showed. Getting turned around on fly balls, letting balls bounce away - he was like a rookie out there. He got better, presumably through hard work because that's who Marwin is. I could imagine a different player, who might not. Early on, Marwin might have had "splits" like what you show.

 

Before dismissing numbers, I'd want to have a look at who was being discussed.

Or a stat that produces a 4.0 in 2017 followed by a -1.5 in 2018 and then 4.0 in 2019 for the same player at the same position.

We've seen batters sandwich a .250 season between two .300 seasons. We don't throw out batting average as a meaningful stat, on such a basis. There's probably an explanation, like an injury.

 

Again, if those were the defensive numbers for a guy, I'd want to know who, and what the circumstances were.

 

I don't disagree that defensive numbers are much, MUCH, shakier than their offense or pitching counterparts. The sample size is always inherently much smaller (batting stats derive from literally thousands of individual judgements and decisions by the batter over the course of hundreds of plate appearances, pitching stats the same in mirror image).

 

But suppose that there IS a problem with a player's defense. If we know what to measure, it should show up. Maybe you'll get a lot of false-positives from the available stats, sample size being what it is, but I still want to look, when a stat is waving a red flag about someone, or if it's shining a spotlight on stellar play for that matter.

 

 

[the_brute_squad]

I may be in the minority but keeping at third makes the most sense. The Gardner hit past Sano was coaching. Why was he playing even with the bag? He's improved each year and like a lot of third baggers it can take a while to become adequate at that position. He can still afford to lose a few pounds and there's no reason he can't play that position at the size of A-Rod.

I think losing Cron before free agency would be a mistake as he's more than adequate with the bat and he has room to improve defensively as well.

The only player I'd see moving is Rosario. I think he's at the high point for trade value and there are plenty of teams in need of a 30+ HR power. The Twins just might be able to further stock the minors with future pitching talent.

[Dantes929]

 

How about ONE of the top picks for this team doing that. Just once......Sky rocket to the majors in 2 years and be very good right away w/o stopping. Just once.*

 

*and no, this isn't about the FO, it's lamenting that for some reason we just aren't getting that. It's no one's fault.....

Fingers crossed on Graterol.

[Dan Engebretson]

I looked at the fielding stats over at Fangraphs.  On the year, the Twins had 10 position players (not inlcuding catchers) that played 300+ innings at a position in the field.  Only three had positive UZR/150 -- Max Kepler 20.6 in RF, Byron Buxton 15.7 in CF, and Max Kepler 9.5 in CF (yes, Max was two of the Twins 3 players with positive UZR/150).  Marwin Gonzalez only played 291.2 innings at 3B, but had an 18.9 UZR/150.  Contrast that with the Yankees; they have 8 players with positive UZR/150 (including Brett Gardner counted twice like Max Kepler) and 5 that are negative.  The Astros (whom I believe are the most complete team in baseball) have 8 players with positive UZR/150 (Springer counted twice) and 4 that are negative.

 

The Twins have demonstrated that they are a true offensive force, however, they've also demonstrated that they are incredbily weak defensively.  While it is probably difficult to determine how much the weak defense negatively impacts pitching, it certainly makes our pitchers work harder each game.  I think the Twins gain nothing by rearranging the deck chairs (moving Sano to first....), they must make meaningful personnel changes (particularly in the infield, where every one of our starters with more than 300 defense innings played, has a negative UZR/150) to improve the defense.  That might start with keeping Marwin at 3B, but Sano is not a good answer at 1B (223 career innings and negative 5.3 UZR/150), and at least for this upcoming year, there is no way (barring injury to Cruz) that Sano gets many ABs at DH.

 

I think the Twins need to get a great glove/good bat 1B (could very well be one of the minor leaguers stepping up).  Work hard to acquire Jose Iglesias (free agent) for SS.  Move Polanco to 2B.  Keep Sano at 3B (his defense improves by having a better SS next to him and a better receiver at 1B).  Trade Arraez; an alternative would be to keep Arraez at 2B and trade Polanco.  I suspect that with Polanco's excellent bat and good contract that many teams would give a solid return.

 

 

[LVTwinsfan]

There’s something to be said about a player just playing one position and perfecting his play at that position. The Twins moved players around a lot this season and their defense wasn’t good. Injuries played a part, sure but the Twins looked like a roster of utility players. Each player needs to play a large pct of games at his primary position in order to be his best at that position.

Edited October 13, 2019 by LVTwinsfan

[Riverbrian]

 

Do these numbers, and the ones below, pertain to specific individuals, or just numbers pulled to make a point? Maybe they're in reference to discussion up-thread and I've forgotten.

 

Early this season Marwin, who came here with a good rep in LF, was absolutely brutal in RF. He'd basically never played there before, and it showed. Getting turned around on fly balls, letting balls bounce away - he was like a rookie out there. He got better, presumably through hard work because that's who Marwin is. I could imagine a different player, who might not. Early on, Marwin might have had "splits" like what you show.

 

Before dismissing numbers, I'd want to have a look at who was being discussed.

We've seen batters sandwich a .250 season between two .300 seasons. We don't throw out batting average as a meaningful stat, on such a basis. There's probably an explanation, like an injury.

 

Again, if those were the defensive numbers for a guy, I'd want to know who, and what the circumstances were.

 

I don't disagree that defensive numbers are much, MUCH, shakier than their offense or pitching counterparts. The sample size is always inherently much smaller (batting stats derive from literally thousands of individual judgements and decisions by the batter over the course of hundreds of plate appearances, pitching stats the same in mirror image).

 

But suppose that there IS a problem with a player's defense. If we know what to measure, it should show up. Maybe you'll get a lot of false-positives from the available stats, sample size being what it is, but I still want to look, when a stat is waving a red flag about someone, or if it's shining a spotlight on stellar play for that matter.

 

It was near midnight... The numbers listed are examples out of my head and not pertaining to any player, but I have seen players with such swings and have always dismissed the numbers (and stat) due to sample size. 

 

You are not going to get decent reliable UZR numbers anywhere from Marwin when he plays:

 

326 Innings at RF

291 Innings at 3B

160 Innings at 1B

129 Innings at LF

18 Innings at 2B

9 Innings at SS

2 Innings at CF

 

This is the equivalent of full time part time play at each position. Yet, the sum of these small samples will end up in the WAR calculation. I pass on UZR and WAR as a result. 

 

If you are looking for a player example. Mike Trout is a pretty unstable defensive player from year to year according to the range stats.  

 

You are on the same page as me... Well Kinda.

 

My point is - as you say "defensive metrics are much MUCH shakier than their offensive and pitching counterparts" and for the exact reason you list. There is much more data pouring into the hitting and pitching stats to stabilize it. 

 

If we have a disagreement, it is that you are more confident in the defensive metrics than I am.

 

The data isn't enough and the data you do get is overwhelmingly routine.

 

You don't have to think very hard to realize that if 80% of the data you use is routine data that goes into everyone's data pile (I'm making up numbers again).

 

It means that a small percentage of the data will provide the variance and if such a small sample can provide a large variance and it does. It's over-weighted.

 

Take that already over weighted small sample, now remove the obvious shifts that disqualify the play from inclusion in the data. The Dodgers shift 50% of the time. Factor in players who play multiple position and like you said... you got yourself a shaky stat and it's a shaky stat that makes WAR shaky by it's inclusion. 

 

 

[Penthang]

A lot of folks in this thread mentioned that pitching needs to be the Twins off season focus. In the first part of this series that was what was focused on. Also, a lot of people take issue with Sano being moved off third. Well he does have a green arm, and is very good at coming in in the ball, his side to side range is limited. Taking that into account and Polanco at short being limited and Arraez at second being below average the infield defense was not good.

At first Sano’s arm doesn’t as often come into play, but his ability to come in on the ball still matters and Polanco would very likely be much better at second. Arraez could be a utility guy with Gonzalez holding third until Royce is ready. That leaves short as an off-season target. They also need a fourth outfielder who is defensively better than Cave. Occasionally he makes a stunning play, sure, but that is negated by the more often bone headed plays. Wade might be that answer, but the brain trust didn’t include him on the ALCS roster so maybe not.

Regardless of what you think of the individual players the point of this article is solid and an important part of taking the next step forward…the Twins need to improve defensively, period.

[jz7233]

 

Sano made a fantastic play in the 1st inning of game 1 to keep that inning from being big.   The two biggest defensive plays in my book were the pop fly that Arraez didn't get to and the double play relay that wasn't caught.     I would even put Cave's completely futile dive in left field that allowed the 2nd run in game 3 way ahead of anything Sano did defensively.   Twins could slide Arraez to 3rd and keep Schoop until Lewis.    Or count on more reps from Sano to help him improve.   I remember Joe Crede and others were considered liabilities defensively early and then settling in to be quite good with experience.

I have no interest in seeing Schoop in Twins uniform next season.

[jz7233]

 

I like Lewis at third as well. He's not ready though. This may be way off base but what about Schoop? He's a good defender with quite the arm. Seems to me he's a better fit there than Arraez, who's bat plays better at second. I like Arraez as a starter but he needs to work hard on his defense. In fact defense needs to be a focus this off-season for the whole team. Plays like Cave's dive (which he had done before in the regular season) are inexcusable for a pro ballplayer.

No more Schoop please!

[jorgenswest]

I don’t think we need defensive metrics (which have a stronger year to year correlation than batting average and ERA) to know that the Twins defense was below average to well below average all around the infield.

 

They might address this by finding a plus defensive shortstop and moving Polanco to 2B and Sano to 1B. Arraez will still likely be below average at 3B but it shouldn’t be much different than Sano at 3B.

 

Better defense will not only prevent runs but also reduce high pitch count innings. Reducing those innings leads to longer starts and less wear on the bullpen.

[jz7233]

 

One option would be resign Schoop and put Arreaz at third. Or keep Gonzalez at third and don't trade Rosario. But really, I'd rather the team focus on improving the pitching staff than moving around deck chairs. The position players are - more or less - set. 

Please please no more Schoop, he isn't much better defensively.

[prouster]

Please please no more Schoop, he isn't much better defensively.

What are your thoughts on Jonathan Schoop?

[yarnivek1972]

Polanco has a hard enough time making throws from shortstop. He won’t be playing third any time soon.

Most of the throws from third are shorter than any throw from shortstop because you play more shallow. The longest throw from third base is one from behind the bag. That’s still closer than a shortstop going a couple steps to his right from standard depth.

[jz7233]

 

What are your thoughts on Jonathan Schoop?

He is a serviceable major league player on a rebuilding team.

Edited October 14, 2019 by jz7233

[stringer bell]

Sanó certainly played his way into the Twins future this year. He's a minor liability at third base, and if he was the only defensive liability in the infield, I don't think there would be a push to move him. I don't blame Sanó for the two big hits in the playoff series versus New York.

 

With four below-average defenders in the infield, I think something has to be done. Moving Sanó to first could improve defense at first and third if Sanó can develop to league average as a first baseman and if improved defense can be supplied at third. 

[mrtwinsfan]

 

What I do with Sano depends almost entirely on what third basemen are available this offseason and for what price. Maybe I'm clinging to Gonzalez' flexibility too much but I really want to keep him in that role.

 

Or maybe they make Adrianza the super sub and Gonzalez the third baseman. That might not be a terrible solution.

Trade with arizona, they got a 3b who had a great year, Cant remember name ????????

[Thegrin]

I hope they keep Sano at 3rd.  Work his tail off all winter. Play 3b during Dominican Ball.   Help him lose more weight so that his playing weight is 250 lbs of muscle.  He's quick and has a canon for an arm and he would be the best power hitting 3b in baseball.   Its not the easy way to handle the situation, but the payoff would be bigger.

[Jham]

Please please no more Schoop, he isn't much better defensively.

I actually really like Schoop. I thought he and Cruz providing leadership was a big reason for the turnaround. He handled his demotion like an absolute professional. He had shown flashes of all star in his career and overall this year was a bounce back for him after playing hurt mitch off last year.

 

I'd be happy to have him back but I'm guessing he'll want a place where he can start.

Edited October 15, 2019 by Jham

[jz7233]

 

I actually really like Schoop. I thought he and Cruz providing leadership was a big reason for the turnaround. He handled his demotion like an absolute professional. He had shown flashes of all star in his career and overall this year was a bounce back for him after playing hurt mitch off last year.

I'd be happy to have him back but I'm guessing he'll want a place where he can start.

What kind of leadership did he provide? Did he have a choice? He's not going to walk away from millions of dollars.

[Jham]

What kind of leadership did he provide? Did he have a choice? He's not going to walk away from millions of dollars.

Yeah he had a choice. He could have sulked. He could have asked for a trade. He could have demanded playing time. When the Twins played in Baltimore after he was dealt to Milwaukee at the deadline the previous year, a year in which he statistically fell off the table, then signed with the Twins for 2019, his first at bat back in Camden Yards he received a standing ovation from a very appreciative and knowledgeable fan base. His last year there was much worse than his year here. It later came ot that he was playing hurt most od the season. I watch almost every game, and he is always laughing and joking with his teammates, cheering when not playing, and playing hard when he gets the chance. He was mostly bad in the 2nd half and small in big moments, but overall he had a productive year. It's easier to have good chemistry when you're winning, but good chemistry also contributes to wins (anecdotally).

[ewen21]

 

Pretty unfair. You write a headline like this, making it seem Miggy was at fault for not being athletic enough, then you bury this admission in the story

 

 

 

Neither hit was Sanó’s fault, exactly. The smart money says he was instructed to move off the line before the Gardner single by the Twins dugout, to better align him with the rest of the shifted infield. The Torres ball was hit hard, and the team hadn’t had a shift on against Torres, so Sanó was a step further from the line than he might have been otherwise.

Agree.  What are we talking about here?

 

This team was not ready for the fight.  It was a team effort all the way around.  To focus on a pitching move here and a play that maybe could have been made totally avoids the harsh reality that this team was not mentally equipped to battle.  I fully expected the Yankees to hit, but I also expected us to hit a little.  We did not.  At all.

 

There is your reason why we lost three in a row.  Heck, in the last game we had a big chance early with the bases loaded and nobody out and we couldn't push a run across the plate.  How come this is talked about and we are splitting hairs with this stuff about Miggy's lack of athleticism?