Falvey: "...We're going to target impact pitching."

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Fangraphs lists four Twins starting pitching prospects among its top 50: Graterol, Duran, Thorpe, and Gonsalves. Interesting exclusion: Balazovic. Unfortunately, none of these guys project as a future ace.

I think you might be looking at an old/odd list. THE BOARD (2019 updated) only has Graterol and Duran as Twins among the top 50 MLB pitching prospects. Balazovic is basically in a 56-way tie for 56th place, with a 45 FV.

 

Gonsalves and Thorpe are even further down, at 40 FV (or a bazillion-way tie for 155th place).

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&pos=pit

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

For me, the irony is that both Odorizzi and Pineda, for decent stretches, would have qualified by any objective measure as 'impact pitchers", but in both cases, they were rightfully regarded as kind of "meh" decisions at the time.

Honest question: What do you consider to be "meh" -- can you clarify? 

 

I am glad I got to you while you are active on the board here.

[Riverbrian]

 

None of the 4 would come anywhere near being considered an "impact pitcher", nor did they receive "impact pitcher" money.

 

The word "Impact" in this context is undefined. 

 

I'm sure they were expecting an "impact" from all 4 of those players and the price paid for any of them really shouldn't be part of the definition.

 

Some people read "impact" and insert it into their own minds eye of what "impact" means to them and they start thinking they are going to drop 20 million AAV on players to match the readers definition of "impact". 

 

When I read that they are going to target "Impact Pitching". I don't assume that it means money spent to acquire it.  

 

To me it simply means that they are going to find guys to fill out the pitching staff and they expect the guys they find to make an "Impact".

 

And to that I reply "Well Yeah... I sure hope so". I hate to think that they are going to waste time and roster space picking up players that they don't believe in. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Give me zero impact then, if it means going from 78 wins to 101 wins in a single season.

I guess I'm setting the bar higher than winning a terrible division and having zero chance in the postseason. 

[bird]

 

I think you might be looking at an old/odd list. THE BOARD (2019 updated) only has Graterol and Duran as Twins among the top 50 MLB pitching prospects. Balazovic is basically in a 56-way tie for 56th place, with a 45 FV.

 

Gonsalves and Thorpe are even further down, at 40 FV (or a bazillion-way tie for 155th place).

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&pos=pit

 

 

I stand corrected. This is what I would have expected too.

[bighat]

 

None of the 4 would come anywhere near being considered an "impact pitcher", nor did they receive "impact pitcher" money.

 

Not to us.

 

But the Twins have indeed been selling these type of acquisitions as "impact arms" to us for the past few years. Take a look at the trade deadline. Romo and Dyson being billed as shutdown relievers that would get this team over the hump? C'mon.

[bighat]

 

Take heart, bighat.

 

I don't know how Falvey and Levine could make it any clearer that the timing is diiferent-and right- for acquiring a front rotation starter (or two?) this off-season.

 

For me, the irony is that both Odorizzi and Pineda, for decent stretches, would have qualified by any objective measure as 'impact pitchers", but in both cases, they were rightfully regarded as kind of "meh" decisions at the time. This FO was not "feeling a breeze" when these guys came on board, right? They were simply trying to pry the window frame open.

 

This off-season is different, and I think looking back with perspective and historical context should give us some faith. Think about how many gaping holes this FO was confronting after that 78 win season one year ago. They told us going into the off-season that their highest priority was fixing Sano and Buxton. They told us they believed in the rest of the core of young players: Berrios,Polanco, Kepler, Rosario especially. Garver wasn't a total shock to them either. Some of us bitched about them going cheap with Cron and Schoop, and we were wrong. Cruz and Marwin were brilliant moves.

 

And in my view, Rodney, Duke, Perez, and Reed were all good decisions. Reed fizzled. But Perez had a stretch there that made it look like this first rounder might turn the lightbulb an and realize his potential. They even got something in return for Rodney and Duke! Dakota Chalmers is pitching well in the AFL, and Ryan Costello is a 40FV guy in AA and ranked #36 by Fangraphs in a very deep system. If those four decisions are sifting through scraps, I'm okay with them sifting through scraps.

 

But we all agree with Falvey. The timing is right to pay up for impact pitching. He says that's the priority this off-season. He's been true to his word about his priorities in the past. They have not been empty words, not in the least.

 

Well said. I feel better!

[bird]

 

Honest question: What do you consider to be "meh" -- can you clarify? 

 

I am glad I got to you while you are active on the board here.

 

TD commenters were in general and rightfully very much "meh" about both the Pineda decision and the Odorizzi decision at the time. Wouldn't you agree?

 

My point was that IMO Falvey didn't consider them to be true "impact" moves because neither move was capable of moving the needle immediately. Too many other holes existed. And yet both players became impact players during 2019 when IMO Falvey still (wrongly) viewed the team as being a year away. This off-season is different. He's aiming higher and feels more urgency.

[nicksaviking]

 

We're obviously missing a top-end bulldog starter. Why couldn't we have signed Charlie Morton? The Rays have a smaller payroll than us; his 2 year 30 million deal looks like a steal right now.  

 

I thought Morton originally said he was going to retire or pitch on the East Coast so his wife would be closer to her family did he not?

[Major League Ready]

 

Take heart, bighat.

 

I don't know how Falvey and Levine could make it any clearer that the timing is diiferent-and right- for acquiring a front rotation starter (or two?) this off-season.

 

For me, the irony is that both Odorizzi and Pineda, for decent stretches, would have qualified by any objective measure as 'impact pitchers", but in both cases, they were rightfully regarded as kind of "meh" decisions at the time. This FO was not "feeling a breeze" when these guys came on board, right? They were simply trying to pry the window frame open.

 

This off-season is different, and I think looking back with perspective and historical context should give us some faith. Think about how many gaping holes this FO was confronting after that 78 win season one year ago. They told us going into the off-season that their highest priority was fixing Sano and Buxton. They told us they believed in the rest of the core of young players: Berrios,Polanco, Kepler, Rosario especially. Garver wasn't a total shock to them either. Some of us bitched about them going cheap with Cron and Schoop, and we were wrong. Cruz and Marwin were brilliant moves.

 

But we all agree with Falvey. The timing is right to pay up for impact pitching. He says that's the priority this off-season. He's been true to his word about his priorities in the past. They have not been empty words, not in the least.

 

Timing is one of those concepts that is not well-received here. I have "heard it" for suggesting the timing was wrong in the past. My opinion does not matter but the actions of GMs around the league are consistent in terms of timing their moves. I expect our FO to act accordingly as well.

 

This team is in a very different position than even 6 months ago. The FO will be in on just about every impact arm. Its not like their are a dozen and we can't just get anyone we want unless we are willing to pay a ridiculous premium which is not a good practice. However, I think we can expect them to be aggressive now that the team is positioned to make a run for the next 3-4 years and possibly beyond. I don't understanding immediately going to doubting them when they just improved the team by 20+ wins in 1 year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I thought Morton originally said he was going to retire or pitch on the East Coast so his wife would be closer to her family did he not?

Yes, Morton has talked retirement -- but his wife's family is in Delaware. Flight time from Minneapolis is exactly equal to that from Tampa. I guess he gets a few more days in nearby Baltimore, but then again those are work days and not pleasure trips.

 

His home is in Florida, but many ballplayers have a home in Florida, and I understand his home was in Florida when he signed with Houston too. We probably would have had to outbid Tampa, but it doesn't seem like signing Morton would have been *too* difficult, if we had targeted him.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

TD commenters were in general and rightfully very much "meh" about both the Pineda decision and the Odorizzi decision at the time. Wouldn't you agree?

 

Actually, no I do not agree. My recollection was different than yours. My recollection was that both acquisitions were well-received here. So I went back to their respective December 2017 and February 2018 threads to check to be sure I was remembering correctly. My re-reading of the threads (at least the first few pages of them) was that the Odorizzi was trade was mostly well-received, much because of the price, and the Pineda signing was very well-received by many because of his upside or potential impact. There’s that word: Impact. However I think you are correct that there were many posters who were “meh” on the Pineda deal, moreso than the Odo deal. So we’re kind of both right.

 

I do agree with you that this off-season is different. It will be especially hard for JP not to open his pocketbook this time, following their awful postseason failure and my belief that the two front office guys really do want to make that big pitcher signing. But again, I’ll believe it when I see it.

[bird]

 

Timing is one of those concepts that is not well-received here. I have "heard it" for suggesting the timing was wrong in the past. My opinion does not matter but the actions of GMs around the league are consistent in terms of timing their moves. I expect our FO to act accordingly as well.

 

This team is in a very different position than even 6 months ago. The FO will be in on just about every impact arm. Its not like their are a dozen and we can't just get anyone we want unless we are willing to pay a ridiculous premium which is not a good practice. However, I think we can expect them to be aggressive now that the team is positioned to make a run for the next 3-4 years and possibly beyond. I don't understanding immediately going to doubting them when they just improved the team by 20+ wins in 1 year.

 

 

Yeah, I understand some of the frustration people have regarding "windows" and don't believe much in the concept myself. To me, it's more about three things: risk management, fiscal management, and buy/sell disciplines. Make very few mistakes that handcuff future moves, don't leave holes because you've blown your budget on a handful of players, and know when and who to swap out.

 

I get more amused by the whole "they passed on so-and so" as if the player was plopped onto a sales table dirt cheap at Kohl's and our guys were let in the door an hour early.

 

 

 

[laloesch]

 

Make it rain up in here, Derek.

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-thinking-aggressively-when-assessing-roster-needs-free-agent-market/562665252/

 

They may target but their not going to sign anyone. I'll believe it when i see it. The last time the Twins front office signed a premiere free agent ace from outside the team was Jack Morris 28 years ago.

[bird]

 

They may target but their not going to sign anyone. I'll believe it when i see it. The last time the Twins front office signed a premiere free agent ace from outside the team was Jack Morris 28 years ago.

 

 

What in the world does this have to do with Derek Falvey? 

 

Jim Pohlad is not Carl Pohlad. The financial landscape is different.

 

Maybe Falvey won't sign Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasberg, but if not, it will be because he didn't like the asking price and moved on to other opportunities. It will not be because Jim Pohlad told them not to. I realize this is an unpopular opinion.

[Major League Ready]

 

What in the world does this have to do with Derek Falvey? 

 

Jim Pohlad is not Carl Pohlad. The financial landscape is different.

 

Maybe Falvey won't sign Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasberg, but if not, it will be because he didn't like the asking price and moved on to other opportunities. It will not be because Jim Pohlad told them not to. I realize this is an unpopular opinion.

 

Agree but part of it is also that everyone wants the truly elite free agent SPs and Minnesota is down the list or not even on the list of places they want to play. It's tough for a mid-tier technology company to recruit people being courted by Google. However, I think they would make the deal IF Cole would come here and the price is not absolutely insane. BTW ... I would applaud that move (now). If that can't happen I would still be happy to see two of Odorizzi / Wheeler / Ryu / Kuechel / Bumgarner. Might throw Anderson in there as well. Would like to see Pineda signed too. They can afford Pineada and two others and still keep this team together for a few years.

[Squirrel]

The word "Impact" in this context is undefined. 

 

I'm sure they were expecting an "impact" from all 4 of those players and the price paid for any of them really shouldn't be part of the definition.

 

Some people read "impact" and insert it into their own minds eye of what "impact" means to them and they start thinking they are going to drop 20 million AAV on players to match the readers definition of "impact". 

 

When I read that they are going to target "Impact Pitching". I don't assume that it means money spent to acquire it.  

 

To me it simply means that they are going to find guys to fill out the pitching staff and they expect the guys they find to make an "Impact".

 

And to that I reply "Well Yeah... I sure hope so". I hate to think that they are going to waste time and roster space picking up players that they don't believe in. 

Yeah, that’s what I think it means, too.

 

Unfortunately. I want it to mean more than just that.

[Squirrel]

TD commenters were in general and rightfully very much "meh" about both the Pineda decision and the Odorizzi decision at the time. Wouldn't you agree?

 

My point was that IMO Falvey didn't consider them to be true "impact" moves because neither move was capable of moving the needle immediately. Too many other holes existed. And yet both players became impact players during 2019 when IMO Falvey still (wrongly) viewed the team as being a year away. This off-season is different. He's aiming higher and feels more urgency.

And this is what I’m hoping for.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

All true.

 

I'm skeptical, but it's encouraging to see acknowledgment of the issue, and recognition of the path to improvement.

 

I'll give them until 72 hrs after the WS ends before I bring out any pitchforks.

Pitchforks over pitching.

 

How droll.

 

Or it may be, 3 days after the World Series.

[FlauerPauer]

I guess my thing is, don't say something unless you actually plan to follow through on it. They may have a different definition of impact pitching, but I think we can all agree that if they sign Ivan Nova or Alex Wood and that's it, the words of the FO means much, much, much less after.

[mikelink45]

 

How are any of the following the fault of Falvine: 1) Pineda suspended; 2) Buck hurt and out for the last month and playoffs; 3) Gibson's really unfortunate illness, rendering him totally ineffective; 4) Kepler and Gonzales both out the last part of September leading up to the playoffs, thereby throwing off their timing and probably playing hurt; 5) Arraez spraining his ankle right before the playoffs; 6) Cron's thumb injury the last half of the season; 7) Rocco's first post season of decision making ?

I guess you can write the same thing about the Yankees - maybe even more storylines.  And they won.

[yarnivek1972]

They may target but their not going to sign anyone. I'll believe it when i see it. The last time the Twins front office signed a premiere free agent ace from outside the team was Jack Morris 28 years ago.

I’m not even sure that he would fall into that category. When he signed, he was 35 and coming off the two worst seasons of his career. Conventional wisdom was that he was done.

[Mike Sixel]

I’m not even sure that he would fall into that category. When he signed, he was 35 and coming off the two worst seasons of his career. Conventional wisdom was that he was done.

But they did pay him big bucks for the time..... coincidentally, that's when they last won in the playoffs....

[Crackedfungo]

My gut says they will try to get either Cole or Strasburg.  Doesn't mean they will, but I think they will make a high offer.  Just don't know if the Twins are a draw yet.  Ineptitude in playoffs didn't help, though record was attractive.  Will need to overpay.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I’m not even sure that he would fall into that category. When he signed, he was 35 and coming off the two worst seasons of his career. Conventional wisdom was that he was done.

You mean like Verlander? 

 

The thing about conventional wisdom is that you need to be smarter than it to win.

 

Which is why I look at Price and if the Twins think he's the guy, I'm on board. They certainly know more about it than I do.

[howieramone2]

 

Not to us.

 

But the Twins have indeed been selling these type of acquisitions as "impact arms" to us for the past few years. Take a look at the trade deadline. Romo and Dyson being billed as shutdown relievers that would get this team over the hump? C'mon.

Our friends at Twinkie Town gave our deadline moves a B, and the acquisition of Dyson individually an A-. At no time did they refer to them as impact arms. I did read several times, including recently by our very own Ted, that Dyson was the highest rated bullpen arm to change teams.

[howieramone2]

 

They may target but their not going to sign anyone. I'll believe it when i see it. The last time the Twins front office signed a premiere free agent ace from outside the team was Jack Morris 28 years ago.

Eavin Santana was just as premier as Jack Morris when he was signed.

[Physics Guy]

 

 

You mean like Verlander? 

 

The thing about conventional wisdom is that you need to be smarter than it to win.

 

Which is why I look at Price and if the Twins think he's the guy, I'm on board. They certainly know more about it than I do.

This is also why I am starting to believe that Mad Bum might be the course of action.  Change of scenery might do him some good.  He won't come at a discount, but will be quite a bit cheaper than Cole and Strasburg.

[yarnivek1972]

You mean like Verlander?

 

The thing about conventional wisdom is that you need to be smarter than it to win.

 

Which is why I look at Price and if the Twins think he's the guy, I'm on board. They certainly know more about it than I do.

No idea to what you are referring. Verlander has had two seasons in his career with an ERA + below 115. One was when he was 25 the other was when he was 31.

[laloesch]

Eavin Santana was just as premier as Jack Morris when he was signed.

I don't agree but that's fine.