Falvey: "...We're going to target impact pitching."

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Great post!  I would add that people need to be a bit more reflective of where we would be if the Twins would have done many of the deals that were promoted here.  For example, many were sure that signing the top FA relief pitchers was a no brainer.  There were 9 RPs that signed with a new team for $7M plus.  Britton resigned with NY which is a little different than a player switching teams because it’s nearly impossible to sign a player when he wants to sign with his old team and they are the highest revenue team in the league.

 

The RPs signing with new teams for 7M+ AAV received a total of $83M AAV and collectively they produced negative WAR.  Only Soria (.4) WAR and Ottavino (2.2 WAR) produced positive WAR.  If we are at all objective, signing the players the Yankees want is a very tall order.  Realistically we were vying for the other 8 and they were all very bad and we would have $20M+ less to spend next year had the team followed the path they are being criticized for not taking.

 

This is just one example.  Chris Archer was a popular target here.  That wasone of the worst moves of the last 20 years and would have been an absolute disaster.  JT Realmuto is great but we got the same production with giving up the considerable package necessary to get him.  Before Realmuto it was LuCroy. Some here included names like Kepler in the Realmuto trade.  Both moves would have been horrible long term.  Darvish … same story.  Johnny Cueto was touted by a few people as an absolute must move.  Sonny Gray got some love here the year two years ago when the Yankees got him.  He sucked.  And, on and on.  People should stop to think about how disastrous the moves promoted here would have been before they criticize the front offices for not operating as boldly as some fans insist upon.  It’s easy when you not accountable.

Dont forget Cobb. I wanted Cobb.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Going off one injury-impacted season is a poor way to do business. I don't know what the chances of Price returning to form are, hopefully the front office does.

 

Not specifically Price, perhaps, but these are the type opportunities the Twins will need to look for if they are going to add "impact arms." They're not signing Cole (and even if they do, they need more than one starter at/above Berrios' level IMO), and I doubt they'll sign from the next level of FA starters. It's possible, but doubtful. So now you're looking at adding through trades (or waiver claims). Find some bounceback candidates, and make it happen. Perhaps Price, he's been good for a long time, and even this year wasn't really bad.

Yep. Price looks pretty cooked to me but I’m not the person with piles of data in front of me. If Price is a reasonable bounce back candidate, strongly consider what risk is involved to get him and put him on the list of potential acquisitions.

[Major League Ready]

 

Mike,

 

This is exactly the type of absolute refusal to acknowledge the facts that I was speaking of. Find one example you can take exception with out of several examples and rest your case on that example. What about all the others. The fact is this team would be an in sad shape now and the future had the team followed the majority of moves endorsed here. I can go all the way back to Ellsbury who you absolutely insisted was the right move for the Twins.

 

BTW ... Darvish was 53rd in fWAR right behind Gibson and Pineda. Characterizing this as one of the best pitchers in the game is just another example of how fanaticism precludes rational assessment of team building practices.

Darvish was one of the best pitchers in the game this year..... The twins would have been better off this year, and in the future, if he was in Minnesota. They have one legit starter under contract, but sure, they've done everything right with pitching.....

 

[Major League Ready]

 

If Terry Ryan was on here he would like this post so hard. Often the best trades/signings are the ones you don't make. That said, if you want to make an omelet or ever beat the Yankees, you have to break some eggs.

 

Very true and I agree. There is no endorsement in what I wrote for the FO standing anywhere near pat. The point is that many continue to complain that the FO has not done the things that were endorsed here when it is now very clear the majority of those things would have been somewhere between bad and disastrous. To continue in the light of hindsight demonstrates an unwillingness to objectively evaluate these strategies. 

 

Now is the time. Why would anyone doubt they are targeting impact pitching? We will still be at a disadvantage in attracting that talent via free agency which is another area some fans refuse to accept. Having said this … we are much better positioned than we have been in a long time. We have an elite offense returning everyone that matters with the exception (possibly) of Castro, the organization is gaining respect around the league.

 

We are also positioned financially. Revenue is increasing and we will be shedding $17,650 in dead salary from Reed, Hughes, Parker, Santana, and Morrison. Schoop is another 7.5M and $2m decrease for Cruz. Odorizzi, Gibson, and Pineda represent another $25,625,000. That’s a total of $52,775,000.  This assumes they keep Castro. Of course, there will be a fairly significant increase from arbitration increases but they have payroll available.

[Vanimal46]

Mike,

 

This is exactly the type of absolute refusal to acknowledge the facts that I was speaking of. Find one example you can take exception with out of several examples and rest your case on that example. What about all the others. The fact is this team would be an in sad shape now and the future had the team followed the majority of moves endorsed here. I can go all the way back to Ellsbury who you absolutely insisted was the right move for the Twins.

 

BTW ... Darvish was 53rd in fWAR right behind Gibson and Pineda. Characterizing this as one of the best pitchers in the game is just another example of how fanaticism precludes rational assessment of team building practices.

1 trade or free agent signing is not going to ruin the future outlook of this team. You seem to confuse the idea that since we advocated for these moves we wanted all of them to be done.

 

I just want one trade. Just one. Maybe it will work. Maybe it won't. But I will give kudos and praise that they tried to be bold.

[USAFChief]

 

Great post!  I would add that people need to be a bit more reflective of where we would be if the Twins would have done many of the deals that were promoted here.  For example, many were sure that signing the top FA relief pitchers was a no brainer.  There were 9 RPs that signed with a new team for $7M plus.  Britton resigned with NY which is a little different than a player switching teams because it’s nearly impossible to sign a player when he wants to sign with his old team and they are the highest revenue team in the league.

 

The RPs signing with new teams for 7M+ AAV received a total of $83M AAV and collectively they produced negative WAR.  Only Soria (.4) WAR and Ottavino (2.2 WAR) produced positive WAR.  If we are at all objective, signing the players the Yankees want is a very tall order.  Realistically we were vying for the other 8 and they were all very bad and we would have $20M+ less to spend next year had the team followed the path they are being criticized for not taking.

 

This is just one example.  Chris Archer was a popular target here.  That wasone of the worst moves of the last 20 years and would have been an absolute disaster.  JT Realmuto is great but we got the same production with giving up the considerable package necessary to get him.  Before Realmuto it was LuCroy. Some here included names like Kepler in the Realmuto trade.  Both moves would have been horrible long term.  Darvish … same story.  Johnny Cueto was touted by a few people as an absolute must move.  Sonny Gray got some love here the year two years ago when the Yankees got him.  He sucked.  And, on and on.  People should stop to think about how disastrous the moves promoted here would have been before they criticize the front offices for not operating as boldly as some fans insist upon.  It’s easy when you not accountable.

Attribute every move that didn't work out (yet, in some cases) to those you disagree with on TD? check

 

Conveniently ignore every free agent signing, and trade, that worked out? check

 

Invent strawmen positions when needed? check

 

Ignore the trades/free agent signings you were in favor of? check

 

 

 

 

[bighat]

While Jake Odorizzi and Mike Pineda were savvy signings, we've seen many more pickups like Zach Duke, Martin Perez, Fernando Rodney, and Addison Reed fall flat.

 

If names like those above are considered "impact pitchers", then I'm not sure I can stomach more of the same. Let's go out and grab some high-profile talent and stop sifting through scraps for a change, Falvine!

[Steve Lein]

 

The Twins have starters that have shown dominance and been able to dominate at times, but none you could classify as dominant per se. Seen what I did there? ☺️

 

Thank you for properly demonstrating how to use these words. I absolutely can not stand reading "he was domi-NATE"

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Darvish was one of the best pitchers in the game this year..... The twins would have been better off this year, and in the future, if he was in Minnesota. They have one legit starter under contract, but sure, they've done everything right with pitching.....

Darvish was worth roughly two wins less than both Berrios and Odorizzi this season and roughly the same value as Pineda, though Pineda pitched far fewer innings.

 

Darvish was literally worth the exact same fWAR as Kyle Gibson.

 

Dunno about "one of the best pitchers in the game".

[dex8425]

We're obviously missing a top-end bulldog starter. Why couldn't we have signed Charlie Morton? The Rays have a smaller payroll than us; his 2 year 30 million deal looks like a steal right now.  

[USAFChief]

 

Darvish was worth roughly two wins less than both Berrios and Odorizzi this season and roughly the same value as Pineda, though Pineda pitched far fewer innings.

 

Darvish was literally worth the exact same fWAR as Kyle Gibson.

 

Dunno about "one of the best pitchers in the game".

Darvish was worth 3.3 bWAR, Gibson 0.3 

 

Odorizzi 3.6 bWAR, Berrios 3.3.

 

Perhaps the issue is using WAR.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Darvish was worth 3.3 bWAR, Gibson 0.3 

 

Odorizzi 3.6 bWAR, Berrios 3.3.

 

Perhaps the issue is using WAR.

Perhaps the issue is that Darvish was pretty good but not even close to "one of the best pitchers in baseball" no matter how you squint at the numbers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Darvish was worth roughly two wins less than both Berrios and Odorizzi this season and roughly the same value as Pineda, though Pineda pitched far fewer innings.

 

Darvish was literally worth the exact same fWAR as Kyle Gibson.

 

Dunno about "one of the best pitchers in the game".

By the end of the season, Darvish was indeed pitching like one of the best pitchers in baseball. Darvish really seemed to figure something out midseason. He was a weapon down the stretch for the Cubs, and could have been one in the postseason too.

 

2nd half, Darvish was 8th in MLB among qualified SP in ERA-, 7th in FIP-, 2nd in xFIP- (behind only Cole), and 10th in fWAR.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

By the end of the season, Darvish was indeed pitching like one of the best pitchers in baseball. Darvish really seemed to figure something out midseason. He was a weapon down the stretch for the Cubs, and could have been one in the postseason too.

 

2nd half, Darvish was 8th in MLB among qualified SP in ERA-, 7th in FIP-, 2nd in xFIP- (behind only Cole), and 10th in fWAR.

And Odorizzi was even better than that in the first half, right?

 

I still don't refer to him as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's a good starting pitcher. If he manages to string together full seasons of that calibre and do it more than once, I'll change my mind.

[Mike Sixel]

Darvish was worth roughly two wins less than both Berrios and Odorizzi this season and roughly the same value as Pineda, though Pineda pitched far fewer innings.

 

Darvish was literally worth the exact same fWAR as Kyle Gibson.

 

Dunno about "one of the best pitchers in the game".

After he made the adjustment he made. Unfortunately I realized I left that off too late to edit.

 

The FO did a great job with hitters, other than Cron, this year. I hope they replicate that with pitchers. They are batting about five hundred on pitching choices, which won't be good enough to get them over the hump, given how much they need.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

After he made the adjustment he made. Unfortunately I realized I left that off too late to edit.

The FO did a great job with hitters, other than Cron, this year. I hope they replicate that with pitchers. They are batting about five hundred on pitching choices, which won't be good enough to get them over the hump, given how much they need.

I'm not saying it wouldn't be nice to have Darvish and pointing out his second half numbers changes the conversation a fair amount.

 

But you're right that the front office needs a lot more Michael Pineda and a lot less Martin Perez going forward.

 

And while it's fine to fill the fifth spot with that kind of free agent reach risk/reward, they need to realize that money and/or prospects for legitimate pitchers will be needed further up the rotation pecking order.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And Odorizzi was even better than that in the first half, right?

 

I still don't refer to him as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's a good starting pitcher. If he manages to string together full seasons of that calibre and do it more than once, I'll change my mind.

Yeah, Mike left off an important clause there.

 

But it's a worthwhile point he was making. Lots of people love pointing out how bad Darvish was in 2018 and early in 2019, but are conveniently ignoring how awesome he was down the stretch, or glossing over it by only lumping it in with his earlier numbers. Even imperfect players can be very valuable at times, and despite his earlier struggles, Darvish would have been a huge asset for us late this year, and probably even worth his contract thus far.

 

Of course, it's also still fair to question how good he will be going forward and if he will continue to be worth his remaining contract. But I don't think that was Mike's point, or necessarily the context of this particular discussion.

[prouster]

1 trade or free agent signing is not going to ruin the future outlook of this team. You seem to confuse the idea that since we advocated for these moves we wanted all of them to be done.

 

I just want one trade. Just one. Maybe it will work. Maybe it won't. But I will give kudos and praise that they tried to be bold.

You mean like the Jake Odorizzi trade?

[Vanimal46]

You mean like the Jake Odorizzi trade?

Yes. It wasn't a high impact trade at the time but it worked out very well. I want to see a couple more trades like that.

[prouster]

Yes. It wasn't a high impact trade at the time but it worked out very well. I want to see a couple more trades like that.

I do too. They have a lot of prospects that are better than Palacios was at the time of that trade. Hopefully they make something work.

[Darius]

Less talk, more action.

 

There’s a Chinese proverb that states something like “Don’t listen to what they say. Go see.”

 

I’ve heard this time and time again from the Twins FO in the off-season. As I grow older, I get more and more fed up with hearing that but seeing nothing, and ending up with Sidney Ponson.

 

It’s time for this club to put some money where it’s mouth is. Show me. If not now, when?

[markos]

Just to add more conflicting numbers to the conversation, Baseball Prospectus had Darvish as their #7 most valuable pitcher for the entire season based on their DRA metric. 

[cardsfan]

I enjoy reading the comments on pitching as an outsider especially the starting pitching. On paper the only starting pitcher you have that I wouldn't want to face is Berrios.

 

Who do you have coming up from the minors?

 

You mentioned Wheeler, but, his team is around .500 when he pitches. It was telling they tried to trade him while acquiring Stroman since they felt they had a chance to qualify for the wild card.

 

You need to develop more young pitchers. You could trade for young pitchers as well. Signing college pitchers seems to be a good strategy that the Cards follow.

 

The success of my Cardinals this century can be looking at how they keep replacing starting pitchers. Every couple years, they've rehabbed injured pitchers like Lohse, Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, the last two a couple of times, or developed college pitchers they've drafted who may last only a few years, and found a couple from overseas like Mikolas and Carlos Martinez.

 

Their major trading mistake was trading Dan Haren for one year of a damaged Mark Mulder. Scherzer probably would have come here for $30 million a year.

 

Cole seems like an expensive signing, but, if he stays healthy may be worth it.

 

I remember all of the gushing over Phil Hughes, Nolasco and speculating signing Garza a few years ago. Signing Starting pitchers as free agents who have injury histories or up and down seasons like Hughes are likely to give you the same.

 

Compare the number of pitching starts of the Cardinals from the pitchers they had on their 2002 team to the 2005-2006 teams, the 2006 to the 2009 team and then the 2009 team to the 2011 team, the 2011 team to the 2015 team and then after missing the post season 3 years barely all 3 years to this years starting pitching.

 

They've almost had to rebuild with at least 4 starters every couple years.

 

And the constant this century just 2 main catchers in Matheny who won 3 Gold Gloves and Molina who has won 9.

 

Keep developing, finding, acquiring starting pitching. You will make mistakes. I don't see one minor league pitcher from Twins who is ready to become another Berrios next year.

[bird]

 

By the end of the season, Darvish was indeed pitching like one of the best pitchers in baseball. Darvish really seemed to figure something out midseason. He was a weapon down the stretch for the Cubs, and could have been one in the postseason too.

 

2nd half, Darvish was 8th in MLB among qualified SP in ERA-, 7th in FIP-, 2nd in xFIP- (behind only Cole), and 10th in fWAR.

 

 

Yeah, Darvish was putting the Cubs on his back and leading them into the postseason, knowing the offense would do its part led by Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jiminez. 

 

Oh, really? Never mind then. 

[bird]

 

While Jake Odorizzi and Mike Pineda were savvy signings, we've seen many more pickups like Zach Duke, Martin Perez, Fernando Rodney, and Addison Reed fall flat.

 

If names like those above are considered "impact pitchers", then I'm not sure I can stomach more of the same. Let's go out and grab some high-profile talent and stop sifting through scraps for a change, Falvine!

 

Take heart, bighat.

 

I don't know how Falvey and Levine could make it any clearer that the timing is diiferent-and right- for acquiring a front rotation starter (or two?) this off-season.

 

For me, the irony is that both Odorizzi and Pineda, for decent stretches, would have qualified by any objective measure as 'impact pitchers", but in both cases, they were rightfully regarded as kind of "meh" decisions at the time. This FO was not "feeling a breeze" when these guys came on board, right? They were simply trying to pry the window frame open.

 

This off-season is different, and I think looking back with perspective and historical context should give us some faith. Think about how many gaping holes this FO was confronting after that 78 win season one year ago. They told us going into the off-season that their highest priority was fixing Sano and Buxton. They told us they believed in the rest of the core of young players: Berrios,Polanco, Kepler, Rosario especially. Garver wasn't a total shock to them either. Some of us bitched about them going cheap with Cron and Schoop, and we were wrong. Cruz and Marwin were brilliant moves.

 

And in my view, Rodney, Duke, Perez, and Reed were all good decisions. Reed fizzled. But Perez had a stretch there that made it look like this first rounder might turn the lightbulb an and realize his potential. They even got something in return for Rodney and Duke! Dakota Chalmers is pitching well in the AFL, and Ryan Costello is a 40FV guy in AA and ranked #36 by Fangraphs in a very deep system. If those four decisions are sifting through scraps, I'm okay with them sifting through scraps.

 

But we all agree with Falvey. The timing is right to pay up for impact pitching. He says that's the priority this off-season. He's been true to his word about his priorities in the past. They have not been empty words, not in the least.

[VATwinsFan]

 

FWIW, the two names mentioned by Lavelle in the article are Bumgarner and Wheeler, in the context of, "will the Twins be willing to give up a draft pick to sign one of these guys?"

 

I think that's the level of "impact pitching" we're realistically talking about here, on the FA market anyway. We ain't getting Cole. (Well, maybe Hamels )

Porter?

[howieramone2]

 

Darvish was one of the best pitchers in the game this year..... The twins would have been better off this year, and in the future, if he was in Minnesota. They have one legit starter under contract, but sure, they've done everything right with pitching.....

Darvish was very good the last half season. So he has paid for his bad contract 25% of the time. He will be 36 in contract year five and 37 in contact year six. He is a huge injury risk.

 

Due to his very good half season, King Theo has a fair chance of making Cubbie fans the happiest they have been since 2016, by moving his bad contract.

[bird]

 

Less talk, more action.

There’s a Chinese proverb that states something like “Don’t listen to what they say. Go see.”

I’ve heard this time and time again from the Twins FO in the off-season. As I grow older, I get more and more fed up with hearing that but seeing nothing, and ending up with Sidney Ponson.

It’s time for this club to put some money where it’s mouth is. Show me. If not now, when?

 

 

 

I enjoy reading the comments on pitching as an outsider especially the starting pitching. On paper the only starting pitcher you have that I wouldn't want to face is Berrios.

Who do you have coming up from the minors?

You mentioned Wheeler, but, his team is around .500 when he pitches. It was telling they tried to trade him while acquiring Stroman since they felt they had a chance to qualify for the wild card.

You need to develop more young pitchers. You could trade for young pitchers as well. Signing college pitchers seems to be a good strategy that the Cards follow.

The success of my Cardinals this century can be looking at how they keep replacing starting pitchers. Every couple years, they've rehabbed injured pitchers like Lohse, Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, the last two a couple of times, or developed college pitchers they've drafted who may last only a few years, and found a couple from overseas like Mikolas and Carlos Martinez.

Their major trading mistake was trading Dan Haren for one year of a damaged Mark Mulder. Scherzer probably would have come here for $30 million a year.

Cole seems like an expensive signing, but, if he stays healthy may be worth it.

I remember all of the gushing over Phil Hughes, Nolasco and speculating signing Garza a few years ago. Signing Starting pitchers as free agents who have injury histories or up and down seasons like Hughes are likely to give you the same.

Compare the number of pitching starts of the Cardinals from the pitchers they had on their 2002 team to the 2005-2006 teams, the 2006 to the 2009 team and then the 2009 team to the 2011 team, the 2011 team to the 2015 team and then after missing the post season 3 years barely all 3 years to this years starting pitching.

They've almost had to rebuild with at least 4 starters every couple years.

And the constant this century just 2 main catchers in Matheny who won 3 Gold Gloves and Molina who has won 9.

Keep developing, finding, acquiring starting pitching. You will make mistakes. I don't see one minor league pitcher from Twins who is ready to become another Berrios next year.

 

 

Fangraphs lists four Twins starting pitching prospects among its top 50: Graterol, Duran, Thorpe, and Gonsalves. Interesting exclusion: Balazovic. Unfortunately, none of these guys project as a future ace.

 

The Twins selected college pitchers with 18 of their first 30 selections in last year's draft. They apparently agree with the Cardinals in that regard.

 

They may also agree about catching, or at least they're better than most teams at finding catching talent. Garver was better than every one of the 16 ist round catchers that played MLB this yearand better than any of the 18 catchers selected before him in his 2013 draft class.

 

They also agree with the Cards about taking chances on "fixing" or rehabbing pitching talent, guys like Pineda and Perez.

 

And they certainly think they can bring out better performance from guys. Duffy is the poster child, but there are many examples.  

 

We'll see if the young geniuses can find us a Kluber.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Porter?

I Get a Kick Out of You(r Post)!

[howieramone2]

 

While Jake Odorizzi and Mike Pineda were savvy signings, we've seen many more pickups like Zach Duke, Martin Perez, Fernando Rodney, and Addison Reed fall flat.

 

If names like those above are considered "impact pitchers", then I'm not sure I can stomach more of the same. Let's go out and grab some high-profile talent and stop sifting through scraps for a change, Falvine!

None of the 4 would come anywhere near being considered an "impact pitcher", nor did they receive "impact pitcher" money.