Front Page: Now Entering Second Guess Season

[Bomba2026]

I'm not so sure some of our Pitchers want to be here...I would definitely try and keep Odorizi.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I just said it was a bad move..... That's one. One bad move.

Not all bad moves are created equal. This one was bad from conception -- is there any valid argument to lean on Duffey again there? -- and it completely gave the game away in the 3rd inning, putting us in 0-2 series hole. (Plus the trickle-down effect, that using Duffey again in that spot largely contradicts/invalidates the Stashak/Gibson strategy of game 1, maybe even the Dobnak decision too.)

 

Compared to something like the Arraez vs Schoop decision -- even if one disagrees, I think one can see a valid argument for the other side. For all we know, Arraez's ankle was indeed fine and he simply misread the looper in game 1. And of course, that misplay alone wasn't all that meaningful, and was only magnified by the single, deep fly (advancing runner), double, and walk that Berrios surrendered to the subsequent 4 batters (the same 4 batters folks seem to want Berrios to have faced a third time, at 88 pitches, in the 5th inning), even before the Cron misplay on the potential double play. Not to mention that Arraez provided a run at the plate in the same game too.

[rghrbek]

 

On the Schoop/Arraez thing, I posted elsewhere, but I don't get that criticism either. Even as a "lefty masher" Schoop had basically the same AVG and a lower OBP vs LHP than Arraez this season, and Schoop's profile (power, strikeouts) was also largely redundant with several other pieces in our lineup. Arraez turned out to be one of our few effective bats this postseason, and perhaps his unique profile was a contributing factor -- the Yankees didn't seem to have an effective approach for him. (Schoop struck out in both of his pinch hit ABs, suggesting the general Yankee approach was working on him too.)

 

Furthermore, it looks like perhaps Schoop is exploitable in the postseason / pressure spots? Career postseason OPS of .346 before 2019. Others have noted he wasn't exactly "clutch" this year either (-1.10 WPA, -0.58 WPA/LI, both worst on the team, with career negative marks too). Last October the Brewers only started him 1 time, and used him as a pinch hitter 3 times, over 10 postseason games. He shouldn't be an automatic start in the postseason vs a LHP, or anyone, really.

 

I'm sure there's a point where Arraez's health may have warranted Schoop starting, but it's not clear to me that we were at that point, despite that looper dropping in the outfield in game 1.

 

No doubt Arraez bat was helpful (since not many other people hit in game two and 3).  

However, he was clearly limping in game one.  Didn't he hit into a DP in game one ( yes as well as a double)?  Didn't get to a ball that clearly started a Yankee rally, made a poor throw on an easy turn (yes Cron should make that play).  Also did not cover 2nd base on a double off the wall that came straight to Marwin and we had a chance to get him out at 2nd (Cron was running to get to 2nd base).

 

Subsequent games yes to playing Arraez and pinch hitting him once the Yankees game one starter was out.

 

Just saying you play the veteran there against the lefty and with the mitigating circumstances.

[awinter]

The 2nd guessing with the benefit of hindsight is fun, but I think it's safe to say in hindsight that the Yankees were a better team. 

[Craig Arko]

Second-guessing? Hey, contraction in 2002 could have prevented all this needless suffering.

[ashbury]

For all we know, Arraez's ankle was indeed fine

One look at Luis running down the first base line, in the second inning, had me saying "he ain't right." This is why I'm not willing to call it second-guessing - we could not possess that information until seeing him in action, but the manager and coaches had the opportunity to find out beforehand. Rocco was unfortunate, to have things unravel so visibly involving a couple of 2B plays in the top of the third, and if instead they had won the game then we probably wouldn't be discussing the starting lineup - but that still doesn't make it a second guess. Rocco weighed the information - lefty vs lefty, inferior defense, marginal ankle readiness - and made his choice. It's fair to question it.

[BD57]

Bottom line - we didn't hit.  Not nearly enough to be competitive.

 

The one game we were "competitive" - game #3 - we scored 1 run, and blew our best opportunity (bases loaded, no outs, got nothing).  Championship teams score runs in those situations.

 

We don't have a #1.  Berrios might be a #2, Odo might be a #2 - more of a #3 (and a good one), but we don't have a guy who blows people away.  

 

Some of it might be "our guys are inexperienced, and the Yankees aren't."   We'll have to see about that.

 

First two games, though, we were just obviously over-matched, and it was a matter of "when is this going to blow up" .....  I wish it was different, but it wasn't.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

 

First two games, though, we were just obviously over-matched, and it was a matter of "when is this going to blow up" .....  I wish it was different, but it wasn't.

 

Do you remember game 1? We were up 2-0. The boys were hitting homeruns like that had all season. 

 

Bad stuff happened when our 1st baseman didn't catch a ball. Then it compounded when our manager made every bad decision possible when it came to handling the pitching staff. 

 

We should have won game 1, hands down. That happens, we are in a much different position. As it were, we lost a winnable game, got spanked in game 2(another game in which the pitching wasn't handled well) and then came home for game three knowing it was just a matter of time before or season was over. 

Edited October 9, 2019 by Battle ur tail off

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The one game we were "competitive" - game #3 - we scored 1 run, and blew our best opportunity (bases loaded, no outs, got nothing).  Championship teams score runs in those situations.

 

Game 1 was competitive, for quite a while. It was 3-3 in the 5th with a full pen, and still 5-4 in the 6th with the same pen minus only Littell and Duffey.

 

The bats certainly disappeared after that, for most of the rest of the series. (Although it certainly didn't help matters that manager decisions put that game out of reach in the 6th and 7th, and the next one in the 3rd.)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

(the same 4 batters folks seem to want Berrios to have faced a third time, at 88 pitches, in the 5th inning)

 

Yes. Send Berrios out for the fifth. Absolutely.

 

Not singling you out.

[USAFChief]

Do you remember game 1? We were up 2-0. The boys were hitting homeruns like that had all season.

 

Bad stuff happened when our 1st baseman didn't catch a ball. Then it compounded when our manager made every bad decision possible when it came to handling the pitching staff.

 

 

Bad stuff started when our obviously hobbled second baseman couldn't catch a routine popup. He also made a pretty bad throw on the ball Cron should have caught.

 

That inning doesnt happen if Arraez catches that popup.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Another decision many of us were questioning in real time was not using Castro in game two.

 

Maybe with Dobnak, the veteran Castro calls the game differently. You can always sub in Garver later if you needed a bat and took Castro out.

[jkcarew]

Hearts not into something that's usually fun. Sigh. Too many fielding mistakes, too many bad decisions, too many poorly executed pitches, too many instances of batters not being able to hold their water. Honestly, it takes a dozen examples to rationalize even a sniff at one win. And that would be one win. Did I say sigh yet?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No doubt Arraez bat was helpful (since not many other people hit in game two and 3).  

However, he was clearly limping in game one.  Didn't he hit into a DP in game one ( yes as well as a double)?  Didn't get to a ball that clearly started a Yankee rally, made a poor throw on an easy turn (yes Cron should make that play).  Also did not cover 2nd base on a double off the wall that came straight to Marwin and we had a chance to get him out at 2nd (Cron was running to get to 2nd base).

 

Subsequent games yes to playing Arraez and pinch hitting him once the Yankees game one starter was out.

 

Just saying you play the veteran there against the lefty and with the mitigating circumstances.

Does not covering 2nd have anything to do with his ankle?

 

Arraez did ground into a DP in his first PA, but you know what? Schoop had a higher GIDP rate vs LHP this season anyway.

 

I'm not saying Schoop would have been the wrong choice, but I don't think Arraez was necessarily either.

 

And the evidence we have from the series doesn't really suggest otherwise -- even if you dock Arraez in the field for game 1, he was 5-for-11 with four doubles in the series. Schoop got carved up in his two PAs, including one vs the lefty Happ.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

One look at Luis running down the first base line, in the second inning, had me saying "he ain't right." This is why I'm not willing to call it second-guessing - we could not possess that information until seeing him in action, but the manager and coaches had the opportunity to find out beforehand. Rocco was unfortunate, to have things unravel so visibly involving a couple of 2B plays in the top of the third, and if instead they had won the game then we probably wouldn't be discussing the starting lineup - but that still doesn't make it a second guess. Rocco weighed the information - lefty vs lefty, inferior defense, marginal ankle readiness - and made his choice. It's fair to question it.

Was there a good camera shot of Arraez running down the line? I don't recall one, but I might have to go back and look.

 

Although it isn't a permanent binary condition either. Maybe he ran fine the day before or in warm-ups, but landed on it weird coming out of the box on that particular play. The defensive play seemed less of an issue with a limp and more of an issue with trying to judge a looping ball behind him.

 

I think it's fair to question the decision, but a lot of people are putting this firmly in the "mistake" column, even above the Duffey game 2 thing. I just don't see that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Bad stuff started when our obviously hobbled second baseman couldn't catch a routine popup. He also made a pretty bad throw on the ball Cron should have caught.

That inning doesnt happen if Arraez catches that popup.

Well, we've disagreed about calling it a "routine popup" before. It was more of a looper that went pretty deep into the outfield. If it had actually reached popup height, it's Rosario's catch given where it landed.

 

And Berrios followed it up by allowing a single, a deep fly (advancing the runner), a hard-hit double, and a walk before the Cron play, so I have a hard time absolving him of too much responsibility for the inning.

[ashbury]

Was there a good camera shot of Arraez running down the line? I don't recall one, but I might have to go back and look.

No. Below is what I think was shown in the telecast ("Paxton induces inning-ending dp" - I don't know how to isolate the one video). We saw the first step, and the final ones. It was enough for me, in the moment - I think the step after touching the base made it look a little ginger, and since he didn't make the play close I had my doubts.

 

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/twins-vs-yankees/2019/10/04/599342#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=599342

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes. Send Berrios out for the fifth. Absolutely.

Not singling you out.

May I ask why?

 

Postseason game 1 seems like the most pointless time to try to extend your starting pitcher. Your full pen is the most rested it will ever be.

 

Berrios was already at 88 pitches. Last 2 months of the season his average was 96 with a high of 101. Judge was leading off, with Encarnacion (2 doubles already) due up third. With as patient as the Yankees were, does he even get more than a batter or two in the inning? FWIW, Berrios this season goes from .675 OPS the first two times through the order up to .750 the third time. OPS .850 from 76-100 pitches, .960 at 101+.

 

It seems like people are putting a lot of stock into his smooth 4th inning, but it was the bottom of the order, only 2nd time though, and he started two of them with balls and didn't have a swinging strike in the inning. Letting Littell start a clean inning in the 5th, with Duffey ready in case of trouble, was a reasonable alternative. (Things start getting murkier with Stashak and Gibson, and Duffey again the next day...)

 

Again, not saying sending Berrios out for the 5th would have been a mistake, but pulling him doesn't seem like much of a mistake either. At least not comparable to the game 2 Duffey move.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No. Below is what I think was shown in the telecast ("Paxton induces inning-ending dp" - I don't know how to isolate the one video). We saw the first step, and the final ones. It was enough for me, in the moment - I think the step after touching the base made it look a little ginger, and since he didn't make the play close I had my doubts.

 

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/twins-vs-yankees/2019/10/04/599342#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=599342

Thanks. I found a direct link, from https://baseball.theater/game/20191004/599342

 

https://cuts.diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2019/2019-10/04/d87e7d97-1fb84cd4-bd85a0f3-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4

 

 

It was a pretty quick play, and Arraez is no speed demon -- I wouldn't expect it to be that close. If he seems to be running gingerly, it's mostly after he's stretched to touch the bag.

 

In any case, I don't think I would have expected anything meaningfully better from Schoop there. And Garver was due up next and didn't get the ball out of the infield all night. At least Arraez used the experience to double and score a run off Paxton his next time up, so it wasn't a complete loss.

 

[JadenPoint]

Not staring Schoop was questionable, given Arraez was not 100%. Stashak in a 1 run game was the biggest head scratcher, along with trying to stretch Rogers and Romo for 4 innings in an elimination game.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Hearts not into something that's usually fun. Sigh. Too many fielding mistakes, too many bad decisions, too many poorly executed pitches, too many instances of batters not being able to hold their water. Honestly, it takes a dozen examples to rationalize even a sniff at one win. And that would be one win. Did I say sigh yet?

But I don’t think it needs to work that way. If the Twins convert that double play in game one, couldn’t you easily see a situation where the Twins lead 3-1 or 3-2 going into the 6th or 7th inning? That’s a good sniff at a win, no?

[jkcarew]

 

But I don’t think it needs to work that way. If the Twins convert that double play in game one, couldn’t you easily see a situation where the Twins lead 3-1 or 3-2 going into the 6th or 7th inning? That’s a good sniff at a win, no?

I guess. Game 1 would be the game where one could catch at least the hint of the odor of victory. I'm not one to buy into the "if they had only won game one" theory, they had time to show they were ready for this level/stage, but the outcomes speak for themselves.

 

Oh, well. Maybe Steven Tyler had it right back in the early 70's... 

 

I know nobody knows
Where it comes and where it goes
I know it's everybody sin
You got to lose (in 3 straight humiliating games to the Yankees) to know how to win

 

NEXT YEAR, baby!

Edited October 9, 2019 by jkcarew

[Old Twins Cap]

1.  Schoop ain't going to win us Game 1. Ever.

 

2.  Waiting to pitch Odorizzi was, in retrospect, a bad decision.

 

3.  Twins did not play well with a glove or a bat in their hand.

 

4.  Twins did not pitch well.

 

5.  Late season injuries to Kepler, Gonzales, Arraez, Cron, Buxton.

 

6.  Pineda getting suspended.

 

7. Poor team play leading into the playoffs.

 

8.  Yankees with the best home record in all of baseball.

 

Add it up and it's another horrible playoff appearance.

 

Which sucks and is mitigated, for sure, by a wonderful season that I enjoyed immensely.

 

Get 'em next year fellas.

[insagt1]

enjoyed the comments. These are from fans who really care about the team.

 

I was leaning on wanting Berrios to pitch one more inning. Some of you sort of convinced me that may have not been wise. We just didn;t know our pen would stink the entire series (when it counted)

I also agree that if they wanted to put Kepler on the roster, he needed to play the final week, at least a little. His was a totally wasted roster spot. Wade or Astudillo should have taken his place. He wasn't ready to play.

Turtle should have been on the roster instead of Adrianza (or Kepler) Twins hitters struck out with reckless abandon. There were spots when they needed someone to put bat on ball. Turtle had the best chance of doing that. For me leaving him off was the biggest mistake of postseason. (i know some, maybe many here are now laughing their behinds off...but it wasn't at all funny watching pathetic AB's from Kepler, Garver and Sano, when it mattered.

 

Arraez earned his playing time. I don't think Schoop could have done any better. Arraez didn't cost us game one. Our pitching did. And our managers decisions on who to use in a game we might have been able to win.

 

Twins did nothing to change the direction of their horrible offense. No one tried to lay one down to get in a run. I know thats anathama to a 307 HR hitting team...but the HR's weren't coming...the k's were. Also no one tried to beat the god forsaken shift (which I wish they would somehow outlaw next year)

 

finally, I absolutely was disgusted with Rocco's post series interview. That wasn't the time to be 'happy' about anything. It was insulting. Best he said very little beyond, 'you saw the games, we were beaten all 3 games, the Yankees played well, we'll try again next year.' NOBODY cared to hear about the wonderful 101 regular season...at that time. It didn;t matter. It was bad enough watching us be the only team that couldn't win a game...but to listen to our manager making light of it....nope. Not a fan of that.

[BD57]

 

Do you remember game 1? We were up 2-0. The boys were hitting homeruns like that had all season. 

 

Bad stuff happened when our 1st baseman didn't catch a ball. Then it compounded when our manager made every bad decision possible when it came to handling the pitching staff. 

 

We should have won game 1, hands down. That happens, we are in a much different position. As it were, we lost a winnable game, got spanked in game 2(another game in which the pitching wasn't handled well) and then came home for game three knowing it was just a matter of time before or season was over. 

 

Yes, I remember game 1 ... games still have 9 innings, though, right?

 

5th to 7th inning, Yankees "crooked number, crooked number, crooked number."

 

We weren't competitive.  That's my opinion ... and, as I understand it, people are allowed to have opinions around here.

 

 

[Amonahan]

You nailed it on the bullpen. If it's 2019 and Zack Littell is the first bullpen arm you bring in during the post season, you are not going to win the series. Perhaps he becomes a lock down guy, but that was not the spot (3-3 tie in Yankee Stadium, game one) for him. 

 

I question Arraez playing as well. He was hobbled and couldn't make the necessary plays. Sure, his bat is a big plus, but if it is such a positive why is he batting ninth? 

 

Finally, having Garver lead off in game one did not work. I don't know what the number said, prior to the game, but I know he struck out three times. 

 

Game one was also atrocious to watch from a batting perspective. There were no adjustments. I doubt Tanaka threw more than 3 fastballs for strikes, but at bat after at bat, our guys (especially Sano) were sitting fastball for some reason. There were no gifts, and we lost. 

[mdonaghue]

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