Front Page: So Now What? Here's Twins Daily's Offseason Primer

[John Bonnes]

“Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose.” – Janis Joplin

 

When the time was right, the Twins promised they would pull the trigger. It could not be any more right than this offseason – the Twins have unprecedented freedom to address their starting pitching issues - and Twins Daily will cover their decisions, rumors and moves (or lack thereof) every day throughout the offseason.First up: tomorrow we’ll start coverage from our 12th annual Twins Daily Offseason Handbook. It’s a complete breakdown of the decisions the Twins will need to make, including how much they’re likely to spend, which free agents will be available, what trade candidates they can pursue, and a full breakdown of minor league options. You’ll be able to preorder it tomorrow, ensuring you get it before we even get to the end of the World Series.

 

You’ll also get daily coverage of the team, even without games. Want a breakdown of what you can expect from Luis Arraez? Well, we’ve already got that, but we’ll have more like that. Want to hear about how top Twins prospect Royce Lewis is doing in the Arizona Fall League? OK, we already have that too, but there will be plenty more coverage like that as well.

 

How about the latest rumors? They’ll be covered in our stories, but covered even more immediately in our forums, along with thoughtful, civil discussion about what they mean, and whether they make sense for the Twins.

 

There should be plenty to talk about. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have positioned the Twins to have a very low payroll commitment exactly when they need to go out and rebuild a starting rotation to compete with teams like the Astros and Yankees. We will be detailing that tomorrow, and how even if the Pohlads don’t break the bank, money should not be much of a limiting factor.

 

We’ll also be profiling free agent targets or trade candidates pretty much every day on the site. If you haven’t already, you’ll learn all about Gerrit Cole, the top free agent starting pitcher available. Is it even worth talking about whether the Twins could land the top free agent pitcher on the market? Hint: there’s already an essay in the Offseason Handbook titled “Could the Twins Sign Gerrit Cole?”

 

For the next four months, right up until spring training, we’ll be covering the Twins, uh, daily. Just like we have done for the last seven years. If you’re not ready for the season to end, we’ve got good news: it never does here. We’ll see you tomorrow.

 

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[beckmt]

Time to buy an ace. Either Cole or Strasburg will do.  QO Oderizzi, and resign Pineda.(At the right price).  Extend Berrios and Buxton, decide what to do with Rosario.  Buy a few bullpen pieces and call it a day. 

Removing Gibson and Perez along with Dyson should free up some money.  Maybe we need to get to the $160 million payroll to have a chance.  

[Richard Swerdlick]

I am glad that the season never ends with Twins Daily. It makes my days complete.

 

[Blake]

 

Time to buy an ace. Either Cole or Strasburg will do.  QO Oderizzi, and resign Pineda.(At the right price).  Extend Berrios and Buxton, decide what to do with Rosario.  Buy a few bullpen pieces and call it a day. 

Removing Gibson and Perez along with Dyson should free up some money.  Maybe we need to get to the $160 million payroll to have a chance.  

As I've posted elsewhere, FA pitching acquisitions need one thing on their resume:

 

Good numbers against the Yankees.

 

Jake Odorizzi falls into this category, believe it or not.

 

Great season and I hope the FO looks at this season as something to build on.

[wabene]

Time to buy an ace. Either Cole or Strasburg will do.  QO Oderizzi, and resign Pineda.(At the right price).  Extend Berrios and Buxton, decide what to do with Rosario.  Buy a few bullpen pieces and call it a day. 

Removing Gibson and Perez along with Dyson should free up some money.  Maybe we need to get to the $160 million payroll to have a chance.

Sounds like a plan to me. Odorizzi is a guy you can count on. I want him back. Berrios is a little high strung but I would sign him. Not so sure I would have had him for game one. He is not our ace but maybe he could be just not yet. After what has transpired he may be more open to a deal. Rosario is an odd case. His bat is the only one that showed up last night but he is inconsistent.

[FLTwinsGuy]

Falvine said they would strike when the opportunity opened up..Well i think that time is now to put your money where your mouth is.. I think the Twins window in the Central is at least open for a few years.. As bad as this team has been against the Yankees, we arent far away from being a real contender..Starts with getting a solid arm or two

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Falvine said they would strike when the opportunity opened up..

That ship just sailed.

[laloesch]

 

Falvine said they would strike when the opportunity opened up..Well i think that time is now to put your money where your mouth is.. I think the Twins window in the Central is at least open for a few years.. As bad as this team has been against the Yankees, we arent far away from being a real contender..Starts with getting a solid arm or two

 

Yeah. It's time to go grab an ace (if he's really serious) or shut up as the saying goes. Quite frankly and honestly (again playing capt. obvious) this was the year they should have done it at the trade deadline and they did NOTHING on the starting pitching front.

 

We will never see a regular season outburst like this again from this franchise in our lifetimes. Next year (if they stick to the status quo of what they've got for players) i expect them to regress in wins by about 10-15 games. No way will the team have 8 players hitting 20+ homeruns.

Edited October 8, 2019 by laloesch

[Doctor Wu]

Sigh, I have no more hopes for this team. Bring on the Timberwolves already.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As I've posted elsewhere, FA pitching acquisitions need one thing on their resume:

 

Good numbers against the Yankees.

 

Jake Odorizzi falls into this category, believe it or not.

I hate to burst any bubbles, but this category also included Radke, Liriano, Pavano, Baker, and even Blackburn...

[SpicyGarvSauce]

I love all the optimism, but the Twins will not be signing Cole, Strasburg, etc. It just won't happen. The Twins have never invested that type of money in a SP, and it won't start now.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

John, Thank you for this article. I needed that reminder.. The sun will come up tomorrow...but it sure is cloudy and dreary here in North Carolina today. I have only invested my time watching on mlb.com and reading and posting on TD (which I thoroughly enjoy 95% of the time) and my annual March trip to Ft. Myers.  I hate the condescending remarks and texts by my Yankee loving friends. But what I wonder is, how the various players feel right now. I wonder if any of the players would honestly share with TD how they feel after being humiliated by setting a new record in post-season futility? Which players are mad? Which players will use this pain to grow? Which player is just drawing a paycheck and is glad the season is over..."Just mail the check to my home" ? I feel like yelling , "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take this any longer !"   But I would be a lone voice crying in the wilderness. Why do I do this to myself year after year? I need to take up fly fishing.

[prouster]

They need to bring back Odorizzi and Pineda. They need to bring in a real frontline starter. I don’t particularly care who that is, exactly. If it’s a free agent, my preferences would be either Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler, or Bumgarner in that order. They could also trade one of their top end prospects—probably either Kirilloff or Larnach—as the centerpiece for an ace. Maybe Syndergaard talks will reignite in the off-season. Maybe the Phillies would be willing to deal Nola after their disappointing season. Maybe the Cubs would trade Kyle Hendricks to help restock their system. Just some ideas off the top of my head. Again, I don’t really care who they get, as long as it’s a guy with a track record and an unwavering desire to win.

 

I’m not wild about a Berrios extension. He’s a good pitcher, but he seems like he gets way too cranked up even during early season games against crappy opponents. I’m not sure he has the proper mentality to be a big game pitcher.

[rdehring]

Good morning, John.  

 

Today is a rough day, the day we transition from wondering if tonight's game will be available on tv to talking about what the Twins need to do this winter.  Like everyone else, I have my hopes for A, B and C.  But I will keep my thoughts to myself and let those decisions to the guys who are making the big bucks.

 

The one thing I will say is that I hope, really hope, that they make at least two big moves between now and spring training to help our starting rotation.  Believe that the other parts of the team, position players and bullpen, are in good shape and only need some window dressing.

 

Thanks for a great season, John and all.  Enjoy your offseasons! 

[SF Twins Fan]

Maybe it's a good thing the Twins got swept. There was no way with the pitching staff they have they were going to win the WS.  In my opinion, had they played competitive with the Yankees maybe the FO and the Pohlad's go into the offseason only planning to tweak the roster.

 

They were thoroughly out played against the Yankees and now know for certain they need to make some major upgrades to the pitching staff. Go get a top of the line starter this offseason no matter the cost. Resign Pineda and Odorizzi.  Sign a top notch bullpen guy to match Rogers.

[gunnarthor]

I don't think we'll see much change, honestly.

 

My guess is that they'll resign Pineda and we'll hear whispers about how the Twins are in on Cole, Strasburg, Bumgarner and Kuechel but they'll sign Ivan Nova or Tanner Roark on a two year deal. They'll also make a bargain bin grab of someone like Drew Smyly or such. I think this team is going to go into a Rays like rotation behind Berrios and Nova and have maybe three traditional starters and nine bullpen arms being used interchangeably and being shuttled to Rochester. 

 

I think we'll trade Rosario and let Wade/Cave hold LF until Kiriloff or Larnach are ready - probably by July. We'll resign Cron and bring back Nelson and go with an IF of Cron, Arreaz, Polanco and Sano. I could see us bringing back Castro in a similar but slightly diminished role but if not him, we'll nab someone else to play 40% of the games behind the plate. 

 

The team will hope for a healthy season from Sano and Buxton and continued high play from Kepler/Garver/Polanco. There is some regression in those three but the offense should still be pretty good and the AL central will be weak enough that we could be 10 games worse and probably still win the central next year.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

I don't think we'll see much change, honestly.

 

My guess is that they'll resign Pineda and we'll hear whispers about how the Twins are in on Cole, Strasburg, Bumgarner and Kuechel but they'll sign Ivan Nova or Tanner Roark on a two year deal. They'll also make a bargain bin grab of someone like Drew Smyly or such. I think this team is going to go into a Rays like rotation behind Berrios and Nova and have maybe three traditional starters and nine bullpen arms being used interchangeably and being shuttled to Rochester. 

 

I think we'll trade Rosario and let Wade/Cave hold LF until Kiriloff or Larnach are ready - probably by July. We'll resign Cron and bring back Nelson and go with an IF of Cron, Arreaz, Polanco and Sano. I could see us bringing back Castro in a similar but slightly diminished role but if not him, we'll nab someone else to play 40% of the games behind the plate. 

 

The team will hope for a healthy season from Sano and Buxton and continued high play from Kepler/Garver/Polanco. There is some regression in those three but the offense should still be pretty good and the AL central will be weak enough that we could be 10 games worse and probably still win the central next year.

 

Sadly this is probably what will happen.

[Dave Overlund]

 

I don't think we'll see much change, honestly.

 

My guess is that they'll resign Pineda and we'll hear whispers about how the Twins are in on Cole, Strasburg, Bumgarner and Kuechel but they'll sign Ivan Nova or Tanner Roark on a two year deal. They'll also make a bargain bin grab of someone like Drew Smyly or such. I think this team is going to go into a Rays like rotation behind Berrios and Nova and have maybe three traditional starters and nine bullpen arms being used interchangeably and being shuttled to Rochester. 

 

I think we'll trade Rosario and let Wade/Cave hold LF until Kiriloff or Larnach are ready - probably by July. We'll resign Cron and bring back Nelson and go with an IF of Cron, Arreaz, Polanco and Sano. I could see us bringing back Castro in a similar but slightly diminished role but if not him, we'll nab someone else to play 40% of the games behind the plate. 

 

The team will hope for a healthy season from Sano and Buxton and continued high play from Kepler/Garver/Polanco. There is some regression in those three but the offense should still be pretty good and the AL central will be weak enough that we could be 10 games worse and probably still win the central next year.

No one is better in all of Major League Baseball than the Twins at being "in on guys." 100% accurate. They will go second-tier for starting pitching as usual, while also acting like they had serious interest in the high-end guys. Much like Darvish a couple years ago. 

 

There's a growing sentiment that guys won't sign with Minnesota for whatever reason, but money talks and the Pohlads not only have plenty of it, they certainly made a healthy profit this year. 

[Shaitan]

They need to assign every player in the starting 10 to do fielding drills all winter long.

[USNMCPO]

First, I would like to thank the TD owners, contributors and fans for a great season of Twins coverage. It is always a joy to start my day with a visit to TD.

My wife and I were discussing the Twins off-season and what moves are possible. WE started with which players would return which would not. We discussed who would replace the departed players from within the system. Then we asked which players (not prospects) would we be willing to trade. Of course it all depends on the return but thoughts are of trading one or more of Rosario, Sano and Buxton. All of these players are immensely valuable to the Twins, but the FA market will be thin and expensive. The return for prospects would be very costly also on the long term front. Trading Kiriloff, Larnach, Rooker, Graderol, Lewis, etc would throw a real blanket over the future. Many talk a great deal about the Yankees buying the best players but it is my sense that they do a really great job of developing their draft picks. That is where a mid market team like the Twins needs to be to compete in the long run. I want a WS win like everyone else, but I don't want the dead years that can follow a championship like the Kansas City fans have to endure.

[Rosterman]

They need to open the purse strings a bit. Push towards that $160 million range. They can. If you win, people will come into the stands.

 

Again, I will say, they missed a BIG opportunity to add a couple of solid pieces at the last trade deadline. The strengths in the minor league system will ony diminish as players can't find 40-man roster spots and become minor league free agents.

 

I would talk with Pineda. I would also hold discussion with Odorizzi. You need to extend Berrios. Need to make a ecision on Rosario. Also, hard looks at where Buxton and Sano fit in the organization. You got another year to explore Buxton, but can you live with Sano and Gonzalez next year and not keep Cron? That's the off-season decision.

 

Get a front line starter. Will cost a lot of money. You could've traded for one (like Grienke, although would he have come to Minnesota was the question) and not tie up funs for 5-7 years. Of course, you always have the ability to trade long-contract players.

 

Back-up catcher. Another solid bat. At least two bullpen arms. You need to look at at least three rotation arms.

 

[Vanimal46]

I don't think we'll see much change, honestly.

 

My guess is that they'll resign Pineda and we'll hear whispers about how the Twins are in on Cole, Strasburg, Bumgarner and Kuechel but they'll sign Ivan Nova or Tanner Roark on a two year deal. They'll also make a bargain bin grab of someone like Drew Smyly or such. I think this team is going to go into a Rays like rotation behind Berrios and Nova and have maybe three traditional starters and nine bullpen arms being used interchangeably and being shuttled to Rochester.

 

I think we'll trade Rosario and let Wade/Cave hold LF until Kiriloff or Larnach are ready - probably by July. We'll resign Cron and bring back Nelson and go with an IF of Cron, Arreaz, Polanco and Sano. I could see us bringing back Castro in a similar but slightly diminished role but if not him, we'll nab someone else to play 40% of the games behind the plate.

 

The team will hope for a healthy season from Sano and Buxton and continued high play from Kepler/Garver/Polanco. There is some regression in those three but the offense should still be pretty good and the AL central will be weak enough that we could be 10 games worse and probably still win the central next year.

Sounds about right. Just wait until 2021 when the Twins sign that top end free agent! Nothing's gonna stop us then!

[Taildragger8791]

 

I don't think we'll see much change, honestly.

 

My guess is that they'll resign Pineda and we'll hear whispers about how the Twins are in on Cole, Strasburg, Bumgarner and Kuechel but they'll sign Ivan Nova or Tanner Roark on a two year deal. They'll also make a bargain bin grab of someone like Drew Smyly or such. I think this team is going to go into a Rays like rotation behind Berrios and Nova and have maybe three traditional starters and nine bullpen arms being used interchangeably and being shuttled to Rochester. 

 

I think we'll trade Rosario and let Wade/Cave hold LF until Kiriloff or Larnach are ready - probably by July. We'll resign Cron and bring back Nelson and go with an IF of Cron, Arreaz, Polanco and Sano. I could see us bringing back Castro in a similar but slightly diminished role but if not him, we'll nab someone else to play 40% of the games behind the plate. 

 

The team will hope for a healthy season from Sano and Buxton and continued high play from Kepler/Garver/Polanco. There is some regression in those three but the offense should still be pretty good and the AL central will be weak enough that we could be 10 games worse and probably still win the central next year.

 

Pretty much spot on what I expect as well. I like Rosario but I think this team would be better off getting some pitching for him and finding a replacement with better plate control and ideally better defensive chops.

 

They also need to make sure they have a quality backup CFer for when Buxton unnecessarily gets hurts running through a wall in a July game. The clown show they put on in the outfield in the ALDS exposed the suspect pitching that much more. This shouldn't be that hard and at this point it would be negligent not to plan for it.

 

Sano came a long ways this year but hopefully he spends all offseason working on handling high velocity and pitches up in the zone, as well as laying off those low/outside balls. Improve on that stuff a little and he'd be an absolute monster, but as it is his achilles heel was exploited by the postseason high octane pitching.

[Vanimal46]

Pretty much spot on what I expect as well. I like Rosario but I think this team would be better off getting some pitching for him and finding a replacement with better plate control and ideally better defensive chops.

 

They also need to make sure they have a quality backup CFer for when Buxton unnecessarily gets hurts running through a wall in a July game. The clown show they put on in the outfield in the ALDS exposed the suspect pitching that much more. This shouldn't be that hard and at this point it would be negligent not to plan for it.

 

Sano came a long ways this year but hopefully he spends all offseason working on handling high velocity and pitches up in the zone, as well as laying off those low/outside balls. Improve on that stuff a little and he'd be an absolute monster, but as it is his achilles heel was exploited by the postseason high octane pitching.

We have a disgusting amount of time now to discuss Rosario's trade value. To get a start on it, I don't think we're going to like it.

 

MLB player swaps rarely happen. What do we expect for a 1 WAR player on his last year of control? I doubt it's anything more than a Fernando Romero type... Someone who may have been a top prospect but struggling to live up to it.

[mikelink45]

I will be checking in on TD all fall and winter and again next season.  I am hooked on baseball and this site is a positive part of each morning.  The team will be different net year if nothing else the free agents that leave will change the make up of the team and the way the minor leaguers bang on the door will impact the team too.  

 

Somehow the FA and trade  market is always more talk than action so if they actually make a big move I will be pleasantly shocked.   Trying to figure out the rotation is a real puzzle - and I would not resign Pineda - get better, don't repeat what did not work.   Berrios, Graterol,??? is my rotation going forward.

[Jham]

If we're smart, we'll look at where we can upgrade as well as merely plugging holes.

 

I agree with those who think we'll push all in on the bull pen game strategy. My guess is that we decline Perez' option then resign to an extension. Graterol will still be on a count next year. Smeltzer and Dobnak will rotate through opening, primary, and long relief.

 

Technically, we'll gain an extra roster spot, but we're officially limited to 13 pitchers which we frequently carried anyway. But we lose some ability to shuttle as options are 15 day assignments from 10 days this year.

 

Personally, I think this method will backfire enormously. Human nature says we like routine and certainty, and that stress and anxiety is cumulative. Mental breaks are important. Mess with routines, and you risk getting the worst from your players instead of the max. (irony).

[Mike Sixel]

I can't think of one team in history that added three legit starting pitchers in one off season. I imagine not many have added two.....

 

I'm not interested in being in on players. That's been the line since McPhail left.

[Rigby]

Kris Kristofferson

[Taildragger8791]

 

If we're smart, we'll look at where we can upgrade as well as merely plugging holes.

I agree with those who think we'll push all in on the bull pen game strategy. My guess is that we decline Perez' option then resign to an extension. Graterol will still be on a count next year. Smeltzer and Dobnak will rotate through opening, primary, and long relief.

Technically, we'll gain an extra roster spot, but we're officially limited to 13 pitchers which we frequently carried anyway. But we lose some ability to shuttle as options are 15 day assignments from 10 days this year.

Personally, I think this method will backfire enormously. Human nature says we like routine and certainty, and that stress and anxiety is cumulative. Mental breaks are important. Mess with routines, and you risk getting the worst from your players instead of the max. (irony).

 

This seems crazy to me after we saw how poorly the bullpen strategy worked in the playoffs without a few starting pitchers that can at least get you 4-5 quality innings. You end up so far behind you don't even get a chance to throw your top relievers out there before the game is out of hand. Even the best bullpen can't cover 7 innings per night.

[ashbury]

Kris Kristofferson

We need RIverbrian to step up and handle editing duties for John Bonnes.