Article: Shaun Marcum could be a fit for the Twins

[kab21]

If Marcum is one of 2-3 solid additions to the rotation, I'd be OK with that. If he's THE new top man of the Twins 2013 rotation, not so OK with it.

 

+1

 

These days Marcum might be a good #3-4 pitcher. Had only one season in the AL with an xFIP under 4. This is Diamond territory.

 

A completely laughable misuse of stats.

 

xFIP is far from a perfect stat. He has shown over his career (900+ innings) that he can beat xFIP by 0.37 pts. That's a pretty significant adjustment. Some pitchers can do this and some cannot.

 

How easily you dismiss NL innings is ridiculous. He's put up a 3.60 ERA over his last 700 innings which were equally split between the AL (East) and the NL. That's definitely not a true #1 but that's far better than I would predict for Diamond next season.

[Thrylos]

If Marcum is one of 2-3 solid additions to the rotation, I'd be OK with that. If he's THE new top man of the Twins 2013 rotation, not so OK with it.

 

+1

 

These days Marcum might be a good #3-4 pitcher. Had only one season in the AL with an xFIP under 4. This is Diamond territory.

 

A completely laughable misuse of stats.

 

xFIP is far from a perfect stat. He has shown over his career (900+ innings) that he can beat xFIP by 0.37 pts. That's a pretty significant adjustment. Some pitchers can do this and some cannot.

 

How easily you dismiss NL innings is ridiculous. He's put up a 3.60 ERA over his last 700 innings which were equally split between the AL (East) and the NL. That's definitely not a true #1 but that's far better than I would predict for Diamond next season.

 

so xFIP is a flawed "stat" and ERA is not?

alrighty....

[Brandon]

Marcum = Cole Devries with more experience and a little better secondary pitches.

 

I have the Twins getting Ervin Santana or Edwin Jackson, Baker and a SP from the Braves for Span. Thats 1 pitcher in the 9-12 million range, 1 in the 3-5 million range, and one salary swap for another if its Tommy Hanson. I got that from the Offseason handbook and thats the most even trade proposal I have ever seen that helps both teams. Its a crime if it doesn't get done. Diamond and Gibson are cheap and Devires and Dedunno and Hendricks are right there waiting Rochester could have a pretty good staff next year.

[kab21]

 

so xFIP is a flawed "stat" and ERA is not?

alrighty....

 

This is an argument that I have not made. I use xFIP a lot and I think it's one of the best stats out there.

 

But it's not perfect either. Over large sample sizes (like careers) ERA tends to be a pretty good stat. Over small sample sizes (like single seasons) ERA fluctuates like crazy. Career ERA also needs to be adjusted for great defensive teams (neither MIL or TOR), significant park effects (neither Miller or Rogers) or league effects (equal split between AL and NL).

[kab21]

Marcum = Cole Devries with more experience and a little better secondary pitches.

 

One of these has had a very good career while one of these looks like a AAAA pitcher. Despite Marcum's lack of velocity he has found ways to K MLB batters which is something that Devries has never done at any level.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

so xFIP is a flawed "stat" and ERA is not?

alrighty....

 

This is an argument that I have not made. I use xFIP a lot and I think it's one of the best stats out there.

 

But it's not perfect either. Over large sample sizes (like careers) ERA tends to be a pretty good stat. Over small sample sizes (like single seasons) ERA fluctuates like crazy. Career ERA also needs to be adjusted for great defensive teams (neither MIL or TOR), significant park effects (neither Miller or Rogers) or league effects (equal split between AL and NL).

 

And that's why we have ERA+. It's a solid indicator of a pitcher's value at a glance.

 

FWIW, Greinke has a career ERA+ of 114 to Marcum's 112.

 

Considering how Marcum will probably command about half the money of Greinke, I think he's a fine solution for the Twins' pitching woes. Maybe not my first choice but not that far down the list, either.

 

xFIP is a useful stat but when a guy spends his entire career over-performing an advanced metric (and Marcum has done just that with FIP/xFIP), you have to re-apply logic to that metric and consider the possibility that it may not be an accurate representation of every player in baseball.

[Willihammer]

Marcum's.gets weak contact that's consistent with his ability to miss bats entirely. Indeed he has a .270 BABIP, and 6.5 Fielding Dependent Wins which aren't included in his FIP derived WAR.

 

Marcum is also a fly ball pitcher whose home has been Toronto and Milwaukee. Put him into a more neutral park and his HR/FB should drop accordingly and improve his ERA even further.

 

That is, assuming his shoulder soreness is nothing to worry about.