Front Page: How The Twins Can Beat James Paxton

[Parker Hageman]

Since the beginning of August, the New York Yankees’ American League Division Series Game One starter, James Paxton, has been one of the most effective pitchers in the American League.

 

Over his last 11 outings Paxton had held opponents to a .177 average against -- fifth-best in baseball behind such luminaries as St. Louis’ Jack Flaherty, Houston’s Gerrit Cole, Cincinnati’s Sonny Gray and New York’s Jacob Degrom.

 

In short, Paxton is a big lefty who can dial it up into the mid-to-upper 90s, drop a mean deuce on you, isn’t afraid of dive-bombing birds of prey, and is currently red hot.

 

He should also be terrified of facing the Minnesota Twins.At the very basic level, the Twins’ roster was constructed to dismantle left-handed pitching. They’ve been very thorough in that department. This season, nobody has out-slugged or out-homered the Twins when it comes to facing left-handed pitching. Since 2009, their 95 home runs off lefties is the most in MLB.

 

Like all humanoids, Paxton has weaknesses and the Twins can exploit them.

 

First, he is most susceptible in the first two pitches of each at-bat. Early in the count he relies on his four-seam fastball and fills the strike zone, usually in the upper third, to work ahead. This season, opponents are hitting .333 with a .598 slugging percentage in the first two pitches of a plate appearance. So one would expect the Twins to emphasize attacking early in the plate appearance because, if Paxton is able to slip into pitch three and beyond, opponents are hitting just .215 with a .370 slugging. This is where he is able to deploy his big bending knuckle-curve and his darting cutter.

 

Still, hitting Paxton’s fastball isn’t babytown frolics. According to Statcast’s data, his four-seam fastball’s movement profiles, in terms of rise and run, closely to that of Minnesota Twins’ Devin Smeltzer. So the elements that makes Smeltzer’s fastball get a lot of empty swings -- it stays on the release plane longer while cutting in a bit to righties, Paxton’s does the same thing only at a higher velocity. Essentially, both pitchers have a lot of carry on their fastballs and hitters struggle to put wood on the high spin fastball.

 

How hitters can combat this is through what Nelson Cruz has preached all year -- by staying on top of the ball. In a recent interview with Fangraphs, Cruz outlined how he attacks the high velocity, high spin pitchers, which was by driving his hands down and inside the baseball. In all, the Twins right-handers haven’t been challenged that often by that type of stuff. The righties have seen 93-plus fastballs at the top of the zone 381 times in 2019 which ended 81 plate appearances. Collectively, they hit .289, with Mitch Garver’s 4-for-10 with 2 home runs being the best performance. Both Cruz and Miguel Sano are the only other two with home runs on that type of velocity. Jonathan Schoop has also fared well against that pitching.

 

While being aggressive early in the count should be rewarded against Paxton, the first inning will be critical. This season, opponents have posted a 1.015 OPS against him in the first. That is a byproduct of Paxton struggling against the first four hitters of a lineup (a .996 OPS), while limiting damage on hitters five through nine (.499 OPS, well below the league average of .711). In fact, he has allowed 22 home runs to the first four hitters while relinquishing just one to the last five. It is difficult to say why this effect is playing out -- most likely because of the quality of hitter -- and the Twins’ lineup depth should be more formidable than, say, the Orioles, but it reaffirms that Paxton can be touched up.

 

Earlier this year, Paxton has been a pitcher who was reportedly tipping his pitches against the Astros. In the stretch position, Paxton had displayed a lot of forearm arm when he came set and that may have given Houston’s hitters a head’s up between the fastball and his breaking ball (different grips can reveal a different look to the hitter). Ultimately, Paxton adjusted that set position to conceal his in-glove grip.

 

 

For the astute observer, at least in his last few starters, Paxton has a tendency to occasionally telegraph his slow curveball from the wind-up position, as video shows him turning his glove quicker into his rotation more so than he does when he is going to throw a fastball. With the prevalence of video in the clubhouse and dugout, it is possible that the Twins can capitalize on this. Then again, he’s 10-and-oh over his last 11 outings so it is entirely possible that hitters can’t pick that up quickly enough.

 

 

To summarize, for the Twins the name of the game is being aggressive. Hitters will need to look for the four-seam fastball up in the zone and attempt to stay on top of it. Paxton is the proverbial pitcher who can settle in and dispatch his slow knuckle-curve and his sharp cutter which tunnel well off each other.

 

It is not a waiting game against Paxton, it needs to be an assault.

 

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[Richard Swerdlick]

Super observations.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

It will be a good night if Garver, Cruz or Sano hit bombas in one of their first couple at bats, all the better if it happens with Polanco on base.  My money is on Garver, who seems to be able to get to high fastballs a bit better than Cruz and Sano.  I expect Twins to be very aggressive and I would not be surprised to see Rosario surprise by jumping on a first pitch fastball.  If Twins can get to the 5th inning with the lead - the bullpen can take it from there.  

 

Not expecting much from Kepler or Cave, but could see Gonzalez be a factor in a clutch situation. 

 

I expect a strong performance from Berrios, but I worry about our infield defense.  A great performance can unravel quickly with an error.  Give the Yankees any opening and they are sure to capitalize.  

 

I will be watching how they pitch Gardner.  He is the one holdover from the previous set of ALDS debacles against the Yankees and I could see pesky at bats from him that will spark the offense.  If they keep Gardner off the bases and keep Judge in the park, I expect a Twins win.

 

[Natron]

Babytown Frolics is the name of my favorite rockabilly band.

[joefish]

Hoping for Berrios and Max to step up and deliver beyond my Wildest Dreams.

[highlander]

Placa mas pelotereo para la victoria!