Front Page: ALDS Preview: This Is It

[Matt Braun]

So, after nine years of waiting (and mainly losing), the Twins reach their first playoff series since the inaugural season of Target Field. A great number of things have occurred since that series in 2010 including the death of Osama Bin Laden, the official ending of the Iraq war, and about 20 terrible Godzilla movies. Naturally, the team that awaits the Twins this year is the same team that has knocked them out of the playoffs the last three times the Twins have made it and five of the last six times that the Twins have reached the playoffs. I don’t need to say the team by name as even just thinking about them sends a cold chill down the spine of any Twins fan, but hopefully this year will be different. Of course, I had to go with The Strokes for my artist reference but instead of “Is This It” (which is way more doubtful in tone), I decided to switch it to “This Is It” because again, I make the rules.Brief Overview:

 

Strip away the jerseys, the locations, and the history, and these are two remarkably similar teams. The Twins ended up finishing the season with just one more homer than the Yankees in order to be officially dubbed the home run champ of MLB, but the Yankees look to be their match in just about every offensive category. Conversely, both teams have rock solid bullpens and suspect starting pitching, giving us a match-up that will certainly be interesting to watch as it unfolds.

 

What They Do Well:

 

When talking about the 2019 Yankees, the most immediate topic is their great offense. Not only did they give the Twins a run for their money in the home run chase, they actually ended up a single point ahead of them in team wRC+ (117 to 116). One point of difference is essentially meaningless but the Yankees’ feat is especially impressive when you consider that Giancarlo Stanton barely played, Aaron Judge missed some time, Aaron Hicks is now out for the year, Didi Gregorius played just 82 games, and Edwin Encarnación has struggled with his own injuries since being traded to the Yankees. The depth players such as Gio Urshela and Cameron Maybin have been the backbone to a Yankees offense that has almost never been at full strength and it is in those players especially where the Yankees lineup goes from good to elite.

 

The other great strength for the Yankees is found in their bullpen. Not entirely surprising as they have had a death bullpen for about three years now and it seemed like they were well on their way to a historic one in 2019. While they never quite reached that height, the Yankees’ bullpen sits at second in baseball by fWAR and their collection of relievers is one of just three groups with a total fWAR over seven (Rays ahead of them at 7.6, Twins below them at 7.3). Needless to say, they will be relying heavily on this group in each game and it won’t be surprising at all if each Yankees starter has a short leash.

 

What They Do Not Do Well:

 

We have covered their offense and relief pitching so far and both have been great, there has to be somewhere where they falter, right? Indeed there is, as their starting pitching fWAR was good for 17th in all of baseball with their 10.6 mark being exactly as good as the Tigers. Now, this isn’t crap-all-over-the-Tigers week because I’ve already done that about three times this year, but being tied with that team in anything is never a good sign. The Yankees boast a solid 1-2 punch of James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka, but the quality of starters drops immediately and the volatility goes through the roof. Thanks to Domingo Germán losing postseason eligibility due to his domestic violence incident, the next two starters become J.A. Happ and his 5.34 FIP and Luis Severino who has thrown all of 12 innings in MLB this season. This is where the Twins will have an opportunity to take advantage and possibly put up runs quickly.

 

Hilariously, the Yankees have the sixth lowest number of stolen bases in MLB this year. This is funny because the Twins have by far the lowest total at just 28 swiped bags (second lowest is the Cubs at 45). While this is less “what do they not do well” and more “what are they not even trying to do”, it still is notable that the Yankees will mainly stick to hitting for power when it comes to scoring runs in the series and the Twins will most definitely follow suit.

 

Individuals Of Note:

 

For a team historically known for cartoonish evil and throwing money at anyone that walked, the modern Yankees are somewhat the reverse of that as they are full of players either developed internally or targeted from other teams in order to improve when they join New York. The shining example of this in 2019 is D.J. LeMahieu who was finally freed from the oppressive confines of Coors Field when he signed a somewhat modest deal with the Yankees this last offseason. The result is a massive 5.4 fWAR season that saw him top his career high for wRC+ with a 136 mark. LeMahieu will likely serve as the leadoff hitter and his .375 OBP in 2019 will serve the Yankees well in this series.

 

There are currently just two players currently on the Yankees who were with them when they last played the Twins in a playoff series. One is C.C. Sabathia who might not make the ALDS roster and the other is Brett Gardner who continued to defy age as he put up yet another solid season for the Yanks. His 115 wRC+ was his highest since 2012 and he set a new career high in isolated power with a .253 mark that absolutely destroyed his last career high. Somehow, he remains a thorn in the side of other teams and I can assure you that he will be a pest in this series as well.

 

There are four names the Twins and their fans need to know; Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle, Zack Britton, and Aroldis Chapman. These four horsemen of the apocalypse stand as the most trusted relievers in Aaron Boone’s back pocket and they will be called on in whatever situation presents itself. Chapman has been melting faces for awhile so I don’t think I need to talk about him too much as has Zack Britton who has somewhat suspect peripherals (3.74 FIP) but a cartoonishly high ground ball rate of 77.2% and a past history of success.

 

Tommy Kahnle is the “Jekyll and Hyde” member of the bullpen as he was all sorts of awful last year but is back to dominating this year to the tune of a 3.33 FIP thanks in part to his 90 MPH changeup (for real).

 

 

Adam Ottavino is the newcomer who has video game-like movement on his pitches but is also known for walking his fair share of batters with a career BB/9 of 4.02 and a 2019 BB/9 of 5.43.

 

 

This is the kind of stuff the Twins will have to navigate through in order to beat the Yankees and I can guarantee that a number of games in the series will come down to which bullpen didn’t falter that day and which one did.

 

Recent History:

 

The Twins and Yankees played two series this season and the Yankees won both 2-1 giving them the season series at 4-2. Although, every game except for one was within three runs and the one game that wasn’t was the Twins’ lone win in Yankee Stadium this year.

 

Pitching Match-ups:

 

Friday: Berríos vs Paxton

Saturday: TBD vs Tanaka

Monday: TBD vs Severino

 

No pitching matchups have been announced as of writing this article on Wednesday night. The matchups will be updated as the announcements are made.

 

Ending Thoughts:

 

Well, here it is! This is the reason why we pour so much energy into following a team over the off season and during the long season. There really is nothing quite like postseason baseball and it gets even better when the team that you root for is one of the few that will play. For the Twins, this is the result of a multi-year effort full of botched moves and fired personnel as the 2019 team finally broke through to win the division in epic fashion. From here on out, everything will be under a microscope as each mistake and clutch play will be amplified under the pressure that is the postseason. Will the Rocco Baldelli-fronted Twins finally slay the Yankee dragon that haunted the Ron Gardenhire squads of the past or will the Twins’ incredible run be cut short? Frankly, I’m not someone that can see into the future, but the pessimism of the past cannot bring me down as I predict that the Twins will indeed win a playoff series against the Yankees.

 

See Also

Looking at When Odorizzi Should Pitch in the Playoffs

Yankees' Weaknesses: The Lineup

Attacking the Heart of the Yankees Order: Part 1

Damage Control: Pitching is Minnesota's Primary Advantage in ALDS

How Minnesota Can Punch Against Paxton

The Only Twins-Yankees History That Might Actually Matter

 

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[rdehring]

Will begin the comments with an optimistic prediction....Twins will win the series!

 

The first surprise will be Randy Dobnak starting and dominating game 2 as the Twins even the series at 1-1.  Dobnak plus three relievers, who will pitch 4 innings, put the Twins on a joyous flight back to the Twins Cities Saturday night.

 

All predictions that he will be playing elsewhere in 2020 are forgotten when Eddie Rosario ignites the team to a punishing game 2 victory.    

 

In other playoff news, Luis Arraez will be on the playoff roster.  He won't play, however, until they return to Minnesota for game 3 when he has his usual multi-hit night leading the Twins to a 2-1 series lead.  Arraez, Cruz and Rosario show up big for game 4 as Delta Airlines replaces their Twins flight plan to NYC with one to Houston later in the week.

 

So come Wednesday morning, just remember you read it first at Twins Daily! 

[SomeGuy]

Yankee rotation is announced.  Paxton, Tanaka, Severino.

 

Encarnacion expects to be on the roster and to play game 1.  CC will not be on the roster.

[SF Twins Fan]

[ScooterDance]

LFG!*

*now I must go back and read the article. Just the title had me fist pumping

[FlauerPauer]

Might have to get two cases of Coors Banquet for this one!

[mikelink45]

Nicely done - I am not interested in the optimistic fan story, you were well balanced and restrained.  I still have the Koufax syndrome - I need to see the result for myself.

[DocBauer]

So, buckle up, because HERE WE GO!

 

Going to try bullet points so I don't ramble TOO much!

 

1] Any Yankee curse is just B.S., no matter what happens. The past is the past. Players, coaches, and even managers are different. The Yankees are a good team. But guess what, so are our Twins! Who did we expect to play, some also-ran club?

 

2] These teams are so evenly matched it's almost eerie. The ONE THING that worries me is NOT that these are the Yankees. Reflecting on this season, and all the Twins have done, and the character of this team, do you really think anyone is frightened or intimidated to play them? No. The ONE THING that worries me is just more experience on the big post season stage. I think that is an X factor to be considered.

 

3] While things have clearly changed for both teams since they played early in the season, the truth is virtually every game was close and swung on a few plays here and there.

 

4] Driving home tonight on the radio, I was listening to a major pundit...cant recall now who...was talking about all the playoff possibilities. He stated bluntly that people are ignoring the Twins, their offense and season, especially their pitching...in fact stating the Twins may be deeper and better in the pitching area right now...and handing the Yankees anything was a mistake. He stated outright he felt the Twins could win this opening series.

 

FWIW, he also stated that he felt Tampa was a legitimate threat to Houston and shouldn't be taken lightly either.

 

5] Post season heroes always come in unexpected forms, it seems. But the thing that has me troubled is Kepler and Marwin, followed by Arreaz. Despite all the talent the Twins have, these 3 guys could all prove to be difference makers. How ready are they?

 

6] Screw the networks and their ratings...to be blunt...I wanted Twins and Brewers for the WS. I'd settle now for the Twins and whoever, lol.

[mickeymental]

 

I still have the Koufax syndrome

me too. but it's offset by the viola and morris syndrome.

[theBOMisthebomb]

The analysis is nice and interesting. It's time though for the Twins to just stand up and punch these guys in the mouth and win the darn series. As far as the history against the Yankees being irrelevant, that's great for Rocco and the Bomba Squad to believe that. However, it means something to the fans - even Dave St. Peter - to finally beat these Yankees. If the Twins can get swept, it will take some time as a fan to recover. A Yankees sweep and the Twins are entering Vikings-like territory for letdowns if this is another Gardy era Yankees beatdown of our Twins. May the best team win. There will be no moral victories here. None of the old, "The Twins really hung in there. What a great regular season. Let's get 'em next year" nonsense. The time is now.

[mikelink45]

 

me too. but it's offset by the viola and morris syndrome.

After today it is reinforced by the ghost of Yankee Twins past playoffs