Twins 2020 Payroll

[DocBauer]

Doc, while I don't disagree with the overall take, RBI don't matter. Especially when batting in the middle of the order on the 2019 Twins.

But not only does it take a team to have a season like this, the offensive explosion was partly due to depth. He hit around 5 sometimes, especially against LHP. But if memory serves, he usually hit 6th or 7th. 25 bombas and 78 RBI with an injury plagued September. Healthy, arbitrary I know, but another 2 or 3 HR and over 80 RBI?

 

I completely understand your point. But the stubborn German/Norwegian part of me would also argue his numbers are even more impressive CONSIDERING he was hitting behind Kepler, Polanco, Cruz, Rosario...sigh. what a lineup!

 

I would be A-OK replacing him with an even better option. And said option may only be a half season to full season away. But unless the Twins can find and sign a Hrbek or Morneau this off season to replace him...with pitching considerations being primary...who else would you find better?

 

LOL, I know we are splitting some fine hairs right now, but we need something to discuss at the moment in anticipation. If we knew ahead of time Cron would play a fine 1B, and would produce 25HR and 78 RBI in the bottom third of a record pacing offense in 5/6 of a season, I think we'd all be pretty happy.

 

Just fun to talk about this stuff. I love it! We only marginally disagree, which is Great!

 

I still think my plan and your payroll idea kicks ass! LOL

[DocBauer]

Doc, I kinda agree but pitcher wins don't matter. They just don't.

And like you, I kinda agree and disagree. Seems we have a lot of that going on today, lol.

 

A few years ago, King Felix had an AMAZING season for Seattle and won the Cy Young with a 13-12 record for a poor team. Kind of an abnormality at the time. And I agree W-L is not a conclusive indicator, neither is ERA. (Ignoring the current Cron debate and RBI, LOL). And while W-L is Not a final debate for a pitcher, reliever or starter, I do find merit in it for a SP. It's kind of easy to say a SP should have won a game because his team scored a bunch of runs, not necessarily meaning Gibson, but how many games did that pitcher lose, or get a no decision, because his offense, or defense, let him down? I feel it generally evens out. At least most seasons.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But not only does it take a team to have a season like this, the offensive explosion was partly due to depth. He hit around 5 sometimes, especially against LHP. But if memory serves, he usually hit 6th or 7th. 25 bombas and 78 RBI with an injury plagued September. Healthy, arbitrary I know, but another 2 or 3 HR and over 80 RBI?

Cron hit fifth in over half his PAs this season and more came earlier in the lineup. He was absolutely the recipient of all those great hitters getting on base in front of him.

 

And that's okay, he did his job. But don't use RBI as an indicator of his ability or performance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And like you, I kinda agree and disagree. Seems we have a lot of that going on today, lol.

A few years ago, King Felix had an AMAZING season for Seattle and won the Cy Young with a 13-12 record for a poor team. Kind of an abnormality at the time. And I agree W-L is not a conclusive indicator, neither is ERA. (Ignoring the current Cron debate and RBI, LOL). And while W-L is Not a final debate for a pitcher, reliever or starter, I do find merit in it for a SP. It's kind of easy to say a SP should have won a game because his team scored a bunch of runs, not necessarily meaning Gibson, but how many games did that pitcher lose, or get a no decision, because his offense, or defense, let him down? I feel it generally evens out. At least most seasons.

Nope, it doesn't. The pitcher win is literally the most useless stat in all of sports, at least what I know of.

 

In what other sport can you name a stat that allows someone to thrive (or fail) so completely, yet a large percentage of the time, not get that "stat" in their favor?

[DocBauer]

Bolded:

 

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

So you'd waste the best pitching prospect in the Twins system in relief? And you'd put Stewart, Smeltzer, Thorpe, or Gonsalves in the rotation?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

100%

 

Unless he suddenly gets a "grip" on some sort of change in winter ball and ST...pun intended...Graterol is absolutely targeted for Rochester. In fact, if he is working on something specifically, he could begin again at AA with a potentially quick promotion. Why is everyone so eager to take an ELECTRIC 21yo arm and promote him to the majors? Hope, I get it. I'd rather have sustained success than urgency.

 

2020 WAY TOO EARLY SPECULATION:

 

1] Berrios

2] Trade or FA

3] Re-signed Odorizzi (POSSIBLE QO)

4] Pineda (Early speculation by comments but makes sense)

5] Dobnak (Clearly the early candidate but has to still earn it)

 

DEPTH AND COMPETITION (With Pineda out early) IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER:

 

1] Smeltzer

2] Graterol

3] Thorpe

4] Ober

5] Poppen (possible pen option)

6] Gonsalves

7] Jax

 

2020 WAY TOO EARLY BULLPEN:

 

1] Rogers

2] Duffey

3] May

4] Romo

5] Littell

6] Stashak (has to continue to earn it)

7] LH TBD (in house, FA or trade)

 

DEPTH:

 

Romero and every SP option plus a few more milb prospects working their way up. Plus, there is always a waiver FA who is interesting.

[DocBauer]

Nope, it doesn't. The pitcher win is literally the most useless stat in all of sports, at least what I know of.

 

In what other sport can you name a stat that allows someone to thrive (or fail) so completely, yet a large percentage of the time, not get that "stat" in their favor?

To be clear, W-L record for a reliever is different than for a starter. I think we can at least agree on that.

 

And a W-L record for a SP can be skewed, absolutely, by playing for a winning team vs a losing team. Prolific offense, poor offense, good defense bad defense good pen, bad pen, all of these factors can lead to final results of a W-L record, yes?

 

And these same factors can also change ERA, and various other stats, or affect them. Yes??

 

But regardless of situation, pitching well enough to win has always meant something to me. Just seen enough games when a SP maybe didn't deserve to win the game, but did, while losing a tight game where he probably deserved to win but didn't, that I've always felt it kind of evened out.

 

Just my opinion. Agree to disagree?

[KirbyDome89]

 

Yawn. I was as disappointed as anyone by the overall payroll number to start the 2019 season but what complaints do you really have about how they've managed this season?

 

Yes, they've been ravaged by injury. Yes, things haven't played out perfectly.

 

The team won 101 games, the second-highest tally since the franchise was founded in 1901.

 

At this point, I'm struggling to really complain about much of anything, really.

Yawn away bud. 

 

They slashed payroll and then opted not to seriously address the pitching staff. Shockingly, it's still a major concern heading into a series against a very good team. Next year is when they'll really spend though right? It always is. 

 

Win total is a hollow argument; there's no need to travel down that road. 

 

 

[rdehring]

I see no way that Cron isn't with the Twins in 2020.  One more year of Cron is the perfect plan to get us to one of those big time prospects who should arrive later in 2020 or in 2021.

[USAFChief]

Cron hit fifth in over half his PAs this season and more came earlier in the lineup. He was absolutely the recipient of all those great hitters getting on base in front of him.

 

And that's okay, he did his job. But don't use RBI as an indicator of his ability or performance.

RBI are the precise reason the FO signed Nelson Cruz, and the precise reason he was so valuable in 2019.

 

They didn't sign him to hit HRs, they signed him to knock in runs. Which he did, and did better than most others would have done given the exact same opportunities.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Jake definitely gets a QO or a 3-4 year deal. I'd like them to make a big splash and get a guy guy like Cole, but I'm not holding my breath. I could see one of Pineda or Gibson being brought back too even if they did. 

 

The window is open, so I expect the FO to follow through on their promise to spend money. 

 

Oh, and Cron gets arb. I could see non tendernig him if there was a capable replacement in the high minors, but there's not yet. 

[beckmt]

I can be either way on Cron, but would like to give Kirloff the chance, since he will almost certainly be here at some point of time this year.  Rooker may be al little behind that, but still close.  This is why I am willing to trade Rosario to a non contender for one of theie best pitchers and include a couple of flyer options lower in our minor league rankings.  

Gibson I feel sorry for, but with this club, just cannot take the chance on him.  We need 1+ holes in the rotation to see what minor leaguers can step up.  

One last thought that will not happen, but makes sence. Rosario to Cleveland for one of their starters. Doubt you can get a high end one for him, but Cleveland needs outfielders and this makes a lot of sense.  Still have no problems with keeping Rosario for no other reason than Cruz protection.  He seemed to come up big when they intentionally walked Cruz in front of him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I can be either way on Cron, but would like to give Kirloff the chance, since he will almost certainly be here at some point of time this year.  Rooker may be al little behind that, but still close.  This is why I am willing to trade Rosario to a non contender for one of theie best pitchers and include a couple of flyer options lower in our minor league rankings.  

Gibson I feel sorry for, but with this club, just cannot take the chance on him.  We need 1+ holes in the rotation to see what minor leaguers can step up.  

One last thought that will not happen, but makes sence. Rosario to Cleveland for one of their starters. Doubt you can get a high end one for him, but Cleveland needs outfielders and this makes a lot of sense.  Still have no problems with keeping Rosario for no other reason than Cruz protection.  He seemed to come up big when they intentionally walked Cruz in front of him.

 

I'm not against trading Rosie, but I'd rather do it when there's a sure thing ready... AK isn't that yet. I do agree he's knocking on the door next season and forcing his way in, but then again, he could get hurt and now you have a gaping hole. Next offseason, I think you revisit Rosario.

 

And I'm not sure you trade him to Cleveland. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yawn away bud.

 

They slashed payroll and then opted not to seriously address the pitching staff. Shockingly, it's still a major concern heading into a series against a very good team. Next year is when they'll really spend though right? It always is.

 

Win total is a hollow argument; there's no need to travel down that road.

Win total is a hollow argument? Did you really just say that?

 

I mean, it's not as if MLB chooses which teams make the postseason based off win totals or anything but I still think it's somewhat important.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

RBI are the precise reason the FO signed Nelson Cruz, and the precise reason he was so valuable in 2019.

They didn't sign him to hit HRs, they signed him to knock in runs. Which he did, and did better than most others would have done given the exact same opportunities.

I disagree. I think the front office signed Nelson Cruz to hit the baseball really hard, which he did. RBI are a side effect of him hitting the baseball really hard, not the actual measurement they used to sign him.

 

And you don't use a corollary stat that is largely dependent on team performance to measure individual performance.

[USAFChief]

 

I disagree. I think the front office signed Nelson Cruz to hit the baseball really hard, which he did. RBI are a side effect of him hitting the baseball really hard, not the actual measurement they used to sign him.

 

And you don't use a corollary stat that is largely dependent on team performance to measure individual performance.

I don't think RBI are "largely dependent on team performance."

 

 

[Richard Swerdlick]

I see the Twins building their starting rotation mostly with young arms from within our system. Cleveland had 3 starters this year from their 2016 draft and that will be our model.

[JW24]

 

I don't think RBI are "largely dependent on team performance."

Cruz hit 41 homers this year, meaning he guaranteed himself 41 RBI. The other 67 were a result of other members of the team getting on base prior to his at bats.

 

I know you are very much an RBI guy, so arguing this point will go nowhere. But I agree with Brock. I think Cruz's OPS was a bigger influence over the Twins interest in signing him than his RBI totals. Also, Cruz is one of the best teammates in baseball, which cannot be overlooked.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think RBI are "largely dependent on team performance."

Come on, of course they are. The absolute maximum RBI possible with no one on base is one.

[In My La Z boy]

Back to the 2020 payroll, I am interested to see who we try and extend if anyone? Assume Berrios is the top target? Where does the FO stand on extensions for Sano/Buxton/Rosario/Garver? Is it smarter to ride it out for another year, and save 2020 payroll on these 5? Do you trade 1 or 2 of them for pitching, and extend the other 3 or 4 of them? 
I would think a season like 2019, and this incredible offense lends itself to prioritizing keeping as much of this group together as possible.I can't see tinkering too much with this starting line up. Seems our best offensive prospects aren't ready to start the 2020 season. All focus of effort this winter should be on starting pitching - and on extending the core nucleus in my opinion.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Back to the 2020 payroll, I am interested to see who we try and extend if anyone? Assume Berrios is the top target? Where does the FO stand on extensions for Sano/Buxton/Rosario/Garver? Is it smarter to ride it out for another year, and save 2020 payroll on these 5? Do you trade 1 or 2 of them for pitching, and extend the other 3 or 4 of them?

I would think a season like 2019, and this incredible offense lends itself to prioritizing keeping as much of this group together as possible.I can't see tinkering too much with this starting line up. Seems our best offensive prospects aren't ready to start the 2020 season. All focus of effort this winter should be on starting pitching - and on extending the core nucleus in my opinion.

The team should have zero interest in extending Garver. He’ll be under control through his age 33 or 34 season and I have no interest in a catcher in his mid thirties.

[dex8425]

 

I'm pretty sure the recovery for Dyson's surgery is 12-14 months, so he won't pitch next year.

Why would Romo coming back surprise you?

Mostly because he's 36 and never played for a team farther north than SF, but also because he's replaceable within the org for much cheaper. 

[JW24]

 

Back to the 2020 payroll, I am interested to see who we try and extend if anyone? Assume Berrios is the top target? Where does the FO stand on extensions for Sano/Buxton/Rosario/Garver? Is it smarter to ride it out for another year, and save 2020 payroll on these 5? Do you trade 1 or 2 of them for pitching, and extend the other 3 or 4 of them? 
I would think a season like 2019, and this incredible offense lends itself to prioritizing keeping as much of this group together as possible.I can't see tinkering too much with this starting line up. Seems our best offensive prospects aren't ready to start the 2020 season. All focus of effort this winter should be on starting pitching - and on extending the core nucleus in my opinion.

 

I think the Twins will chew up some of the ~$60M the original poster estimated was available with extensions to players still under team control.

 

Locking up Berrios should be priority 1. After that, I would like to see Sano and Buxton extended. I think the next guy up could be Arraez (there was a really good discussion on his future value to the Twins on this site a couple weeks ago).

 

I think Rosario is the most replaceable of the group of players looking for extensions, so as we discuss making a trade for pitching, he is someone I would be ok sending elsewhere in a trade.

 

Garver, as another poster mentioned, will be in his mid-30s by the time he is a free agent. If he moves over to 1B at some point in his career, an extension might make sense, but as a catcher, I think the Twins are better off just going through arbitration each year.

[In My La Z boy]

 

The team should have zero interest in extending Garver. He’ll be under control through his age 33 or 34 season and I have no interest in a catcher in his mid thirties.

Should the team then have an interest in trading Mitch, and couldn't we expect a pitching haul for such a bargain catcher? Guys like Grandal are commanding 14-15M. I am not advocating this, but seems we have quite an asset here at $500K.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Should the team then have an interest in trading Mitch, and couldn't we expect a pitching haul for such a bargain catcher? Guys like Grandal are commanding 14-15M. I am not advocating this, but seems we have quite an asset here at $500K.

The Twins have no depth behind Garver. Trading from a position of no depth rarely improves the team; the most you can hope for is break-even, which renders a trade mostly useless.

[dex8425]

Please, please don't resign Pineda. I want no part of a guy who couldn't even stay healthy while using PED's. Plus, there's the "let his team down in the postseason by cheating" deal that probably wouldn't be great for clubhouse morale. 

 

Yep, he's a good pitcher when healthy. You know who else is a good pitcher when healthy? Gibson. And Gibby is the opposite of Pineda in clubhouse presence and chemistry. However, we don't know if Gibson will ever be healthy again. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Mostly because he's 36 and never played for a team farther north than SF, but also because he's replaceable within the org for much cheaper. 

Romo has made $3 mil or less, on one year deals, each of the last 3 seasons. There isn't much of a financial argument to not bring him back.

 

Actually, that modest salary should make him more attractive as cheap insurance, in case one of the younger pitchers gets hurt, isn't ready, is trade bait, or is needed in the rotation instead.

[Dave Overlund]

I can instantly tell you how old a Twins fan is by how confident they are that the Twins will sign a Cole-level pitcher this offseason. 

[SpicyGarvSauce]

Here is something to ponder for discussion...which player has more trade value going into the 2020 off-season...

 

Eddie Rosario, Trevor Larnach, or Alex Kiriloff.

[In My La Z boy]

 

Here is something to ponder for discussion...which player has more trade value going into the 2020 off-season...

 

Eddie Rosario, Trevor Larnach, or Alex Kiriloff.

Will be interesting to see how we build the 2020 starting 5 this offseason. Free agents, Trades, combination of both. I suppose the argument can be made to trade whoever is the most valuable of the 3 you mentioned. All 3 can't play LF in 2021.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

Will be interesting to see how we build the 2020 starting 5 this offseason. Free agents, Trades, combination of both. I suppose the argument can be made to trade whoever is the most valuable of the 3 you mentioned. All 3 can't play LF in 2021.

 

At this point, the Twins may envision Kiriloff as a first baseman long term...we just don't know.