Twins 2020 Payroll

[BD57]

 

The window was open this year. If they couldn’t see that then......

 

Before the season, I think that was a "hope," not something anyone could say was going to happen with any confidence.

 

Keep in mind how much of the offense this year was driven by record-breaking HR hitting.   I don't know that anyone had reason to "know" that was coming.   

 

Yes, we thought we'd be better than last year - but I doubt anyone saw 101 wins coming, and "more than a few" thought Cleveland deserved to be favored in the Division.

 

It only became clear the window was open - shoot, it was gone - during the season.   And even then, we took some hits along the way (Buxton getting hurt & out yet again, Pineda getting disqualified, just as examples) which leave us going into the post-season at "less than full strength."

 

I agree the FO needs to treat next year as a "Let's win now" opportunity.  

 

I'm not faulting them for what they did this year; with the exception of Dyson (did they miss / overlook something?), they made very few mistakes.

[pierre75275]

I say offer cron arbitration, let Castro walk and sign Grandl ( brewers catcher) and leave the offense the same.

 

Pitching? I dunno. QO oderizzi offer Gibson let perez walk get Wheeler and Pinada and call it a day

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Never underestimate this organizations penchant to cheap out. The same sentiment was echoed last year along with the "flexibility," and "sustainable success," catchphrases.

 

Here we are with a young group of position players performing at a high level, carrying the team into the postseason, and we're treated to Randy Dobnak starting at home in game 3, with game 4 (if we get that far) looking like a bullpen game. 

Yawn. I was as disappointed as anyone by the overall payroll number to start the 2019 season but what complaints do you really have about how they've managed this season?

 

Yes, they've been ravaged by injury. Yes, things haven't played out perfectly.

 

The team won 101 games, the second-highest tally since the franchise was founded in 1901.

 

At this point, I'm struggling to really complain about much of anything, really.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The window was open this year. If they couldn’t see that then......

You mean when they went out and bought a crap-ton of free agents and built a 101 win team? You mean they didn't see the window opening when they signed all those players?

 

Honestly, I'm not sure what some of you expect to happen here. Yes, I wanted to see them spend more in the offseason but I was clamoring for bullpen options, most of which failed, and that means I was wrong and the front office was right.

[DocBauer]

Going to run with the $60M budget because I think it's at least close to accurate. Yes, the team could spend more as 2019 was a lower payroll than 2018, and even then we were just below the mean. But going to stick with $60M.

 

I'm speculating what I believe makes sense, as well as what I think will happen, as well as what I believe I would do.

 

First, I'm going to eat a small chunk of the $60M with a couple re-signings.

 

1] Castro at approx $4M per on a 1 or 2yr deal. While catchers are in short supply, he's had a good season, he's still going to be 33yo I believe, and wasn't a full time starter coming off injury. I just don't see a big market and his comjng back at a reduced cost just makes so much sense. Am I little high? Maybe, but I'm running with this number.

 

2] I believe Cron is back. He is coming off his best 2 season's, was a nice addition, and would have had even better production this year if not for the thumb issue late. Prospects are not yet ready. And while it can be argued a 1B of decent quality can be gotten cheap how much better value could you get than Cron at this point? He made $4.8M last season and I'd have him back for about $5M, give or take a couple $100K, but rounding it off. (Not sure 1yr or 1 + 1 or 2yr deal, thinking 1yr).

 

3] Romo only made $2.5M this year, and sooner or later he will lose it, but it hasn't happened yet. He has veteran presence, track record, has had yet another good season, and depth is needed/wanted. He's back on a 1yr deal for $3M.

 

That's $12M to help fill out the roster, $48M still left.

 

***Note: I think there is a CHANCE Dyson signs for something like $750,000K and an incentive deal for 2021 but not including him here.***

 

Now to the Rotation:

 

1] Odorizzi jumps from $8M to a high of $15M per for 3yrs, possibly with some sort of 4thyr option. I like him, want him back, and he is borderline killer for 5+ IP. But he's also not a stalwart #1-2 SP and reflecting on today's game and market, I think this makes sense.

 

2] Pineda is brought back on a 1 or 2 yr deal averaging $12M per, a bump up from $8M this year. Of course, 2020 is probably pro-rated some due to suspension, but again, I think the numbers make sense.

 

This leaves approximately $21M for an additional acquisition. I am just being a realist, not an ownership or FO basher when I just don't see Cole signing, no matter how much I'd like to see it. My opinion is based on him being the #1 guy available and just see him re-signing, or a big market team throwing in extra $ or years to get it done.

 

So where does that leave the Twins? I am torn as to what I would do and what the FO would do. On the one hand, the Twins window has just opened, and this FO has proven to be quite savvy thus far has a vision, and seems geared to long term contention and stability. On the other hand, they haven't been afraid to make various FA signings...even if they haven't always worked out...took a decent shot at Darvish and Ohtani, and make inquiries this last deadline on trade options.

 

PLEASE, not a plethora of opinions they are cheap and didn't REALLY make sincere attempts. The attempts and inquires are on record no matter individual thoughts and speculations on them.

 

The FO, scouts, analytics department, Rocco and Johnson are 100 times smarter than I am. I see them about 50-50 on a 4 for 1 trade for someone with control to be brought in on trade vs a FA. There are arguments both ways. (Way too many trade options to worry about a list of targets or prospects at this point).

 

I didn't like Bumgarner as a rental. But I am very intrigued by him as a still young-ish veteran FA. He is not the same pitcher he was but numbers also make him look like a nice, viable option for a winning team. Perhaps he needs and is ready for a scenery change? He only made $12M with the Giants in 2019. Not quite what he was, but viable and intriguing, could he be had for around $16M per for 3yrs? Call me crazy, but that sounds fair to both parties for me. He gets a big payday, goes to a young, winning team with an open window, and gets to work with a bright pitching coach and manager.

 

Give or take a little in regard to the $60M to spend option,this makes the Twins an even better club in 2020, with tons of depth and talent really, really close, while still, potentially, allowing a couple $M left over.

 

The last move I would make would be a FA move, or more greatly preferred, a smaller trade for a LHRP with track record and 2yrs of control to add to the pen.

 

In short, mostly the same team back, with 1 major addition to the rotation, 1 solid pen addition, the payroll the same, (allowing for moderate increases for extensions or mid-season deadline acquisitions if needed), only TWO additions beyond 1-2 years, and keeps the milb system almost fully intact. (At least in the Bumgarner scenario. Otherwise, yeah, we lose a couple really nice pieces in the top 20 but still don't decimate the system).

 

What say you?

[Brock Beauchamp]

As for overall payroll, the 2020 payroll should be no less than $140m. 

 

They're coming off an extremely surprising season, ticket sales will be way up, they'll be riding some postseason money, there's no reason why $140m shouldn't be the standard.

 

Personally, I'll be disappointed if the payroll doesn't creep toward $145m but I'll accept $140m as a baseline.

 

They spent nearly $130m in 2017, there's no reason they can't blow past that number in 2020.

[Danchat]

With some of the hitter prospects of higher clout nearing the majors (Rooker/Kiriloff/Larnich/Gordon kind of), I think the Twins can afford to send most of that money towards pitching. I also think the farm system is deep enough that we could make a trade or two for starting pitching and be fine. 

[DocBauer]

Before the season, I think that was a "hope," not something anyone could say was going to happen with any confidence.

 

Keep in mind how much of the offense this year was driven by record-breaking HR hitting.   I don't know that anyone had reason to "know" that was coming.   

 

Yes, we thought we'd be better than last year - but I doubt anyone saw 101 wins coming, and "more than a few" thought Cleveland deserved to be favored in the Division.

 

It only became clear the window was open - shoot, it was gone - during the season.   And even then, we took some hits along the way (Buxton getting hurt & out yet again, Pineda getting disqualified, just as examples) which leave us going into the post-season at "less than full strength."

 

I agree the FO needs to treat next year as a "Let's win now" opportunity.  

 

I'm not faulting them for what they did this year; with the exception of Dyson (did they miss / overlook something?), they made very few mistakes.

I really like this post!

 

I especially liked the referencing to "hoping" how the season would play out. Let's all be honest and realize that as crazy and injury-riddled as 2018 was the Twins "pulled off" a 78 win season. Even still, despite everything that went wrong in 2018, there was a talented group on hand that with health coaching, and some smart moves, could see a real move forward.

 

Well, that happened. Despite "hope" and all the smart moves the FO made, nobody could accurately predict that the window would be open, or blown open, and that we would have this kind of year.

 

The window is now wide open.

[Mike Sixel]

Cron was replacement level, give or take. Why is a team on a budget, with two starting pitchers, signing him? No way.

[beckmt]

QO Oderrizzi, bring back Pineda, sign one other starter, cut ties with Gibson and Perez.  Dobnick looks like he might work out, same with Thrope, you have to have places for the younger players.  Other choice is to trade Rosario and a couple of the kids for a front line starter, just haven't seen one I like. Add a reliever or two and call it good.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Cron was replacement level, give or take. Why is a team on a budget, with two starting pitchers, signing him? No way.

Eh, it depends. I don't offer him arb but if I can get him for $5-6m and am confident he's healthy again, I *might* do it.

 

But I'm certainly in no rush to retain him.

[DocBauer]

Yawn. I was as disappointed as anyone by the overall payroll number to start the 2019 season but what complaints do you really have about how they've managed this season?

 

Yes, they've been ravaged by injury. Yes, things haven't played out perfectly.

 

The team won 101 games, the second-highest tally since the franchise was founded in 1901.

 

At this point, I'm struggling to really complain about much of anything, really.

Brock, you made 3 consecutive posts that I not only like, and agree with but wish I could copy and paste consecutively. But that would get redundantly long, and I talk enough as it is, lol.

 

1] I was also disappointed by the opening payroll, especially in regard to the pen, but boy was the FO a lot smarter than I was/we were. I'm not sure I could say the Twins were "ravaged" by injuries. Were they? Honestly asking, we sure had them, but it seemed they were spaced out, not season ending except for Buxton and maybe Gibson. Or is it just that depth overcame all of that?

 

2] Absolutely agree with your second post as to what some expectations might have been. Great moves, pair of HR records, 101 wins, etc. Other than playing a fantasy game where you could "name your trade and cheat the system", not sure what anyone could expect, or how much better this season could have been.

 

3] Regarding 2020 payroll. Everywhere I look, I find slightly different numbers in regard to 2018 vs 2019. FWIW, Sportrac has the Twins with a higher adjusted 2019 payroll than 2018, but they also allow for bonuses and milb players and the such. Trying best I can to find accurate numbers, the 2018 opening day roster was at approx $132M. 2019 opening day payroll was a little over $113M. In other words, a better, healthier, more successful team despite a dip of $19M in payroll.

 

Proving once again smart usage of payroll can mean a lot more than just spending.

 

I laid out my plan just above. And while I pretend to know approximately nothing, I stuck to amjgt's original premise for 2020 payroll and, IMO, put together an even better team than 2019.

 

To your 2020 payroll point of $140+M, that would put the Twins just below mean in 2018 and a little above in 2019, based on the numbers I could find. I am FULLY ON BOARD with your payroll for next season. And there should be no reason why a mid market team shouldn't be OK with a MLB mean payroll when you are a contending club. We are not even talking about some crazy ALL IN mantra, just raising the payroll of this 101 win team to the mean.

 

HOWEVER, if we play the 2019 payroll version, as presented here, with approximately $60M to spend, and follow a plan similar to what I outlined...thinking I'm being smart but who the hell knows...we'd still have something like what, $25M more to play with?! That would mean bumps in all the numbers I listed, room for extensions, and STILL be no worse than an average ML payroll. Right?

[DocBauer]

Cron was replacement level, give or take. Why is a team on a budget, with two starting pitchers, signing him? No way.

Because even a team with a budget, under the ML average, needs good players and Cron is a pretty good option at 1B for only about $5M and coming off the best 2 years of his career?

[Mike Sixel]

Because even a team with a budget, under the ML average, needs good players and Cron is a pretty good option at 1B for only about $5M and coming off the best 2 years of his career?

But he wasn't good compared to other first baseman.

[DocBauer]

Eh, it depends. I don't offer him arb but if I can get him for $5-6m and am confident he's healthy again, I *might* do it.

 

But I'm certainly in no rush to retain him.

Until I'm shown a better option, I'm OK with him with no misgivings. I like his defense, despite a few gaffs here and there. Guy impressed me with his glove. Despite finishing the season poorly with a bum thumb, he was on pace to match or exceed his 2018 career season. Even still, be exceeded his RBI total. And he will only be 30 in 2020. I'm not a big WAR guy, but for those who are, 1.4 in 2019.

 

I'm not saying he is a Hrbek by any means! But he's a nice ballplayer who generally hits in the lower third of this lineup and offers an awful lot for the price. And for various reasons out of context for this discussion and already hashed and re-hashed previously, I am not ready to move Sano. Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker are not yet ready. Until someone shows me a better option for approx the same or slightly more cost, I'm bringing him back.

[darin617]

 

You really think Romo will be signed by the Twins? I'd be surprised. Will Dyson be able to pitch in the second half of 2020? I'd guess we'll keep him if so. 

 

At least I would expect we offer Odorizzi the QO. Maybe re-sign Gibson. 

 

No way we outbid about 15 other teams for Gerrit Cole. No way.  

I would be sad if they didn't bring back Romo. Such good energy and great veteran leader in the bullpen for all these young guys. Also seems to be a great teammate and has to be great since he has won.

 

As for Gibson, no way I want to see him back.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not sure I could say the Twins were "ravaged" by injuries. Were they? Honestly asking, we sure had them, but it seemed they were spaced out, not season ending except for Buxton and maybe Gibson. Or is it just that depth overcame all of that?

I'm speaking specifically about the postseason. Going into the ALDS, the Twins have lost or are using an injured version of:

 

- Buxton

- Pineda

- Garver

- Kepler

- Adrianza

- Cron

- Gibson

- Arraez

 

Honestly, what is that worth in WAR over the course of a season? 20? 30? More?

 

And that really hurts going into the ALDS. The Twins have won despite that depletion but now they have to face the best of the best while limping around. We can't expect an entire team to play the role of Kirk Gibson, baseball just doesn't work that way.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would be sad if they didn't bring back Romo. Such good energy and great veteran leader in the bullpen for all these young guys. Also seems to be a great teammate and has to be great since he has won.

 

As for Gibson, no way I want to see him back.

Those two statements are kind of humorous together.

 

Yes, we all love Romo. He's great and provides delightful soundbites.

 

But all those things you said about Romo are also said about Gibson. He's regarded as one of the best people in the clubhouse and a great human being.

 

As evidenced by him powering through an awful disease (contracted during charity work, mind you) and just trying to play in any capacity allowed by Baldelli.

 

I simply do not understand why Twins fans hate Gibson so much. I mean, I do understand, but I don't get why we can't separate the man from the performance. From everything I've ever read or heard, Kyle Gibson is a person I want in my clubhouse.

[DocBauer]

But he wasn't good compared to other first baseman.

Based on what Mike? And I'm not being snarky I'm honestly asking.

 

I really liked his defense except for a few errors. They happen! His overall numbers will take a dip and not totally reflect how he performed in 2019 due to a September plunge caused by his thumb injury. OK BA, 24dbls, 25HR and 78 RBI that all would have been better with a healthy finish. This while being an "also ran", to some degree, being a "part" of a talented and powerful roster while usually hitting no higher than 5th, and usually lower.

 

Unless payroll allows for an even greater addition, and until a couple of the kids are ready to supplant him, I'm just not sure what is wrong with him or how you get better. Especially needing to add and re-sign to the rotation.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Until I'm shown a better option, I'm OK with him with no misgivings. I like his defense, despite a few gaffs here and there. Guy impressed me with his glove. Despite finishing the season poorly with a bum thumb, he was on pace to match or exceed his 2018 career season. Even still, be exceeded his RBI total. And he will only be 30 in 2020. I'm not a big WAR guy, but for those who are, 1.4 in 2019.

I'm not saying he is a Hrbek by any means! But he's a nice ballplayer who generally hits in the lower third of this lineup and offers an awful lot for the price. And for various reasons out of context for this discussion and already hashed and re-hashed previously, I am not ready to move Sano. Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker are not yet ready. Until someone shows me a better option for approx the same or slightly more cost, I'm bringing him back.

Doc, while I don't disagree with the overall take, RBI don't matter. Especially when batting in the middle of the order on the 2019 Twins.

[DocBauer]

I would be sad if they didn't bring back Romo. Such good energy and great veteran leader in the bullpen for all these young guys. Also seems to be a great teammate and has to be great since he has won.

 

As for Gibson, no way I want to see him back.

IMHO, Romo is back for all the things you said. One of these days he will lose it. But there is no indication that it is going to happen now. I believe he will have a productive 2020 for the Twins, even though I think his role will end up being a 6-7 inning guy in favor of Duffey, May, and maybe even Littell. That doesn't mean he wouldn't be productive and valuable, just passed by from younger and better arms.

 

As to Gibson, I deliberately didn't include him in my "plan" listed above due to his situation. He, his family, his doctors, could all sit down and decide it's time to retire. He could also respond well to diet and treatment and get his strength back and find himself as a SP again, or re-invent himself as a RP.

 

The unfortunate truth is, he is a super nice man and great ambassador for the game and his team, but has run in to some bad luck. Personally, if he comes back, I'm betting he only gets a 1yr incentive laden contract to make good. If the Twins offer him that I won't be upset. But I think the best of Gibson could, sadly, be done and gone.

[Otwins]

If Cron is brought back he should be platooned. His numbers versus left handers are good. Wonder if Cave can play 1B some. Mitch Moreland is a free agent at the end of the year and would be a good platoon partner. Just based on roster space and cost I would try  Cave some at 1B

[DocBauer]

I'm speaking specifically about the postseason. Going into the ALDS, the Twins have lost or are using an injured version of:

 

- Buxton

- Pineda

- Garver

- Kepler

- Adrianza

- Cron

- Gibson

- Arraez

 

Honestly, what is that worth in WAR over the course of a season? 20? 30? More?

 

And that really hurts going into the ALDS. The Twins have won despite that depletion but now they have to face the best of the best while limping around. We can't expect an entire team to play the role of Kirk Gibson, baseball just doesn't work that way.

Absolutely 100%

 

I was speaking, and thought you were initially, about the course of the season.

 

I am filled with hope for the continuation of this wonderful seaskn, but also filled with a sense of trepidation for all the late season losses. All the more because it is the Yankees. And you know if we end up losing, all you will hear about is some silly curse, or how the Yankkes overcame early season injuries, and you will hear nothing about the Twins late season battles.

[Mike Sixel]

Based on what Mike? And I'm not being snarky I'm honestly asking.

 

I really liked his defense except for a few errors. They happen! His overall numbers will take a dip and not totally reflect how he performed in 2019 due to a September plunge caused by his thumb injury. OK BA, 24dbls, 25HR and 78 RBI that all would have been better with a healthy finish. This while being an "also ran", to some degree, being a "part" of a talented and powerful roster while usually hitting no higher than 5th, and usually lower.

 

Unless payroll allows for an even greater addition, and until a couple of the kids are ready to supplant him, I'm just not sure what is wrong with him or how you get better. Especially needing to add and re-sign to the rotation.

Based on going to fangraphs and sorting the rankings on lots of numbers. Rooker or Kirilloff can put up half to two war next year, for five million less. They get their rookie year while Cruz is still here, covering for any decline they cause, and when Cruz is gone, they are experienced.

 

They desperately need pitching. I just don't know where they get it without spending money.

 

I won't be upset if he's back, but they better not sign him and then come up short on pitching.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Rooker or Kirilloff can put up half to two war next year, for five million less. They get their rookie year while Cruz is still here, covering for any decline they cause, and when Cruz is gone, they are experienced..

While I agree that Rooker and Kirilloff are good, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. You claim to want the Twins to win but Justin Morneau posted a negative WAR in his rookie year (only ~110 PAs, but still). He rebounded nicely and turned into a good player the following year in about half a season but we're talking about a guy who was literally the 15th best prospect in all of baseball at the time. Expecting someone who is either a top 50 guy or not even a top 100 guy to perform at the level of Cron is... not likely to happen.

 

If Mike truly Wants Wins, Cron should be on the table.

[DocBauer]

Those two statements are kind of humorous together.

 

Yes, we all love Romo. He's great and provides delightful soundbites.

 

But all those things you said about Romo are also said about Gibson. He's regarded as one of the best people in the clubhouse and a great human being.

 

As evidenced by him powering through an awful disease (contracted during charity work, mind you) and just trying to play in any capacity allowed by Baldelli.

 

I simply do not understand why Twins fans hate Gibson so much. I mean, I do understand, but I don't get why we can't separate the man from the performance. From everything I've ever read or heard, Kyle Gibson is a person I want in my clubhouse.

Not only is Gibson a great person, but I have championed again, and again, and recently again in a post that was ignored by most concerning his career.

 

Do so few take the time to just look up facts? Or are the "haters" simply disillusioned by the fact he never fulfilled the dream of being a late 1st round steal who would be a staff stud?

 

I've given up trying to get "some" to look at his first 2 full seasons, and what he did the last half of 2017 and for 2018, and MOST of 2019 before sucuming to illness. They only want to concentrate on a year and a half of poor ball vs his career. In this wonderful, magical season, despite starting slow due to illness, and finishing poorly due to illness, with inflated late numbers, he is 13-7 in 2019. Where would we be without him?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I've given up trying to get "some" to look at his first 2 full seasons, and what he did the last half of 2017 and for 2018, and MOST of 2019 before sucuming to illness. They only want to concentrate on a year and a half of poor ball vs his career. In this wonderful, magical season, despite starting slow due to illness, and finishing poorly due to illness, with inflated late numbers, he is 13-7 in 2019. Where would we be without him?

Doc, I kinda agree but pitcher wins don't matter. They just don't.

[Rosterman]

18 players = $60 million.

 

Would add Graterol, Stashak and possibly Romero (out of options) into the pen. Another $1.5 million.

 

 

Stewart, Smeltzer, Thorpe and Gonsalves will be given a chance to break into the rotation. Picture 2 making it. Another Mil.

 

Still have Alcala, Gordon on the 40-man.

 

That's 13 open roster spots! 13!

 

You need 2 starters. One bullpen arm (even a real closer would be nice). Possibly a backup catcher. 

 

Wow. Not going to add nine minor league guys to the roster, so some names like Cron, Harper, Wade/Cave, Torreyes might even remain.

 

But, yeah, easily spend $50 million on pitchers!

 

[GameDay]

Just throwing it out there, but what about signing JD Martinez to something like a 3 yr / $70M deal and putting him at 1B? That'd save about 7-8 mil (compared to a theoretical signing of Rendon) to spend on starting pitching.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Would add Graterol, Stashak and possibly Romero (out of options) into the pen. Another $1.5 million.

 

 

Stewart, Smeltzer, Thorpe and Gonsalves will be given a chance to break into the rotation.

Bolded:

 

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

 

So you'd waste the best pitching prospect in the Twins system in relief? And you'd put Stewart, Smeltzer, Thorpe, or Gonsalves in the rotation?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO