Twins 2020 Payroll

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The team should have zero interest in extending Garver. He’ll be under control through his age 33 or 34 season and I have no interest in a catcher in his mid thirties.

meh... I'd argue locking in the dollars and getting a couple option years wouldn't be the worst use of resources... yeah, not a huge extension, but those options can be valuable. 

[gunnarthor]

Twins have about a 120m or so payroll this year. I don't expect that the Twins will increase it that much. Certainly not to 140.

 

While they'll get a little salary relief they'll also have some big arb bills to pay. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/minnesota-twins-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

 

While those numbers seem high - and some players will be released/traded instead of coming back - it's probably somewhat close, especially with Berrios entering Arb 1 and Sano, Buxton, Rosario and Rogers all entering Arb 2. Second year arb average is 5m and I think three of those guys will probably get more than avg. 

 

Basically, there is no way the Twins are signing Cole. They will probably clear some salary by trading Rosario and make some minor pitching signings. I think they'll resign Pineda but Odorizzi and Gibby will walk. And then they'll probably make another two minor signings similar to Perez and go with Berrios, (Perez clone 1), (Perez clone 2) and then try to find ways to make Dobnak, Thorpe, Gonsalves etc work while creating a pitching staff that more resembles the Rays large bullpen group rather than traditional starters. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

While I agree that Rooker and Kirilloff are good, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. You claim to want the Twins to win but Justin Morneau posted a negative WAR in his rookie year (only ~110 PAs, but still). He rebounded nicely and turned into a good player the following year in about half a season but we're talking about a guy who was literally the 15th best prospect in all of baseball at the time. Expecting someone who is either a top 50 guy or not even a top 100 guy to perform at the level of Cron is... not likely to happen.

 

If Mike truly Wants Wins, Cron should be on the table.

Like I said, if they keep him, they better not fail at acquiring pitching.

 

And Cron just isn't that good. I don't get the love affair. And, as I pointed out, this gives the rookies experience while the team is great on offense.

 

But sure, re-sign him. But no excuses for not getting three legit pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

Here is something to ponder for discussion...which player has more trade value going into the 2020 off-season...

 

Eddie Rosario, Trevor Larnach, or Alex Kiriloff.

Rosario has almost none. He's an extensive corner outfielder, with little team control. He's worth one decent prospect. No team that didn't think it's a playoff contender trades for him, and if they think they are, they aren't trading starting pitching away.

[Mike Sixel]

Twins have about a 120m or so payroll this year. I don't expect that the Twins will increase it that much. Certainly not to 140.

 

While they'll get a little salary relief they'll also have some big arb bills to pay. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/minnesota-twins-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

 

While those numbers seem high - and some players will be released/traded instead of coming back - it's probably somewhat close, especially with Berrios entering Arb 1 and Sano, Buxton, Rosario and Rogers all entering Arb 2. Second year arb average is 5m and I think three of those guys will probably get more than avg.

 

Basically, there is no way the Twins are signing Cole. They will probably clear some salary by trading Rosario and make some minor pitching signings. I think they'll resign Pineda but Odorizzi and Gibby will walk. And then they'll probably make another two minor signings similar to Perez and go with Berrios, (Perez clone 1), (Perez clone 2) and then try to find ways to make Dobnak, Thorpe, Gonsalves etc work while creating a pitching staff that more resembles the Rays large bullpen group rather than traditional starters.

Certainly my fear.

[Mike Sixel]

An argument for signing Cole.... And a reminder this team cut payroll and signed Perez....

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-patrick-corbin-signing-made-the-difference-for-washington/

[SwainZag]

Before I read the entire post.......

 

Offer Odorizzi a QO, when he declines, offer a 3 year deal, 50M

Offer Pineda a QO.  A lot of risk in a multi year deal...

Offer Gibby a 2 year, 20M deal.

 

 

Offer Romo, 1 year, 3M

Offer Dyson, 2 year, 2M - 5M offer.  He's going to miss the year, let him rehab and spend a year with the staff.

 

I was on the fence on Cron, but I turn down the arby.  Wouldn't surprised to see Rooker or Astudillo take that spot on the roster.

 

You gotta go for on the top arms on the market.  I have a sheepish feeling the FO will surprise us and acquire a SP thru a trade this winter though.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Offer Dyson, 2 year, 2M - 5M offer.  He's going to miss the year, let him rehab and spend a year with the staff.

Have any pitchers gotten a rehab deal like this right after shoulder surgery? Honest question. Most of them are Tommy John surgery cases (i.e. Pineda).

 

I think Dyson's recovery might be too unpredictable to bother with any kind of guaranteed contract for 2021 at this point. I guess if we didn't sign him until spring training, we could put him right on the 60-day DL, but I don't think it would hurt to wait until after 2020 to see where he is either. I don't think he's a critical piece for us, nor do I think there'd be any kind of great bidding war for his 2021 services if we wait.

[PDX Twin]

 

We'll never know until we make a legitimate offer to someone.

 

How can any of us possibly know what offers the Twins have made to whom?

 

I get really tired of all the ranting on this board about the Twins never trying to sign FAs or trade key prospects. Unless someone has a reliable contact inside the Twins' organization, we simply don't know what offers were made unless they end up getting accepted and leading to a signing/trade.

 

Moreover, sometimes the best deals are the ones you don't make, as pointed out by many here who have tracked the dreadful performance of the high-profile FA relievers from last winter.

[Twinsoholic]

Dobnak has been a great story for the Twins, and we all seem to expect he will have a rotation spot next year. Here is a question for everyone. Is there a Twins minor leaguer who could be a surprise starter for the Twins next season? I am not thinking about someone who was never drafted but who the Twins signed. If there is another Dobnak from that route, wonderful. But, I think Canterino is the pitcher who could, if he stays healthy, end up starting for the Twins in a meaningful way sometime next season much as Dobnak has done. Canterino was the Twins 2nd round draft selection this past June. He hasn't been in the organization for very long, but he is a polished college pitcher, and his arm was not abused at Rice. Wouldn't it be great to have successful starters coming out of our own farm system? Anyway, I am betting on Canterino to be a success story. Think what that would do for the payroll.

[Mike Sixel]

How can any of us possibly know what offers the Twins have made to whom?

 

I get really tired of all the ranting on this board about the Twins never trying to sign FAs or trade key prospects. Unless someone has a reliable contact inside the Twins' organization, we simply don't know what offers were made unless they end up getting accepted and leading to a signing/trade.

 

Moreover, sometimes the best deals are the ones you don't make, as pointed out by many here who have tracked the dreadful performance of the high-profile FA relievers from last winter.

How likely is it they've made huge offers, only to have every one of them turned down.... By every big time pitcher?

[Mike Sixel]

Dobnak has been a great story for the Twins, and we all seem to expect he will have a rotation spot next year. Here is a question for everyone. Is there a Twins minor leaguer who could be a surprise starter for the Twins next season? I am not thinking about someone who was never drafted but who the Twins signed. If there is another Dobnak from that route, wonderful. But, I think Canterino is the pitcher who could, if he stays healthy, end up starting for the Twins in a meaningful way sometime next season much as Dobnak has done. Canterino was the Twins 2nd round draft selection this past June. He hasn't been in the organization for very long, but he is a polished college pitcher, and his arm was not abused at Rice. Wouldn't it be great to have successful starters coming out of our own farm system? Anyway, I am betting on Canterino to be a success story. Think what that would do for the payroll.

Not on day one. During the year? Possible, likely even, but not on opening day.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Until I'm shown a better option, I'm OK with him with no misgivings. I like his defense, despite a few gaffs here and there. Guy impressed me with his glove. Despite finishing the season poorly with a bum thumb, he was on pace to match or exceed his 2018 career season. Even still, be exceeded his RBI total. And he will only be 30 in 2020. I'm not a big WAR guy, but for those who are, 1.4 in 2019.

Cron had a 101 wRC+ this year. The other guys at that level had pretty disappointing seasons (Smoak and Votto). League 1B posted a 108.

 

He was at 111 wRC+ entering September, but given how cautious the Twins were about health, I'd hesitate to assume they were sending Cron out there with serious issues. And it's not like Cron was the only guy to play through an injury in 2019 -- maybe the league average 1B at 100% health would have been 118 wRC+.

 

Cron could still be useful, but keep in mind, he had zero trade value last winter, coming off a 123 wRC+, healthy, with a $4.8 mil salary attached. No way I'd pay him $5 mil for 2020 at this point, off a 101 with injury concerns, unless he has a monster postseason or something. He's a non-tender, and you probably try to get him back significantly cheaper (maybe with a very low guarantee plus incentives, if you are concerned about his health).

[Brock Beauchamp]

Like I said, if they keep him, they better not fail at acquiring pitching.

 

And Cron just isn't that good. I don't get the love affair. And, as I pointed out, this gives the rookies experience while the team is great on offense.

 

But sure, re-sign him. But no excuses for not getting three legit pitchers.

Fair enough. I’m not exactly falling over myself to retain Cron but one more year might be a good stop gap until one of the guys from the minors is ready.

[DannySD]

Our lineup 1-12 gets paid very little for how much it's producing. I think the FO is smart enough to seize this opportunity and will spend, using both cash and prospects, to get enough pitching to have a realistic shot at a 2020 title. 

[gunnarthor]

 

How can any of us possibly know what offers the Twins have made to whom?

 

I get really tired of all the ranting on this board about the Twins never trying to sign FAs or trade key prospects. Unless someone has a reliable contact inside the Twins' organization, we simply don't know what offers were made unless they end up getting accepted and leading to a signing/trade.

We have 25+ years of Pohlad ownership. We have comments made by Levine. We know they grabbed Falvey to mimic Cleveland's growth (low payroll) over voices that would build another way.

 

This team isn't going to spend in free agency. That Cruz is arguably the best FA signing since Morris tells us more about the Twins than Cruz. My personal opinion is that teams should either go huge in free agency (nab Cole, for instance) or basically sit it out. The middle range rarely works. We'll see if Falvine can figure out how to build support a team or if it will all fall on the players. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Like I said, if they keep him, they better not fail at acquiring pitching.

And Cron just isn't that good. I don't get the love affair. And, as I pointed out, this gives the rookies experience while the team is great on offense.

But sure, re-sign him. But no excuses for not getting three legit pitchers.

The issue with Cron is not having a capable replacement... Hey, if they can find someone better, then by all means non-tender him... But there's no one in our system that will likely replicate what he did this season. 2021, perhaps... but I'm not very confident for 2020. 

[Twinsoholic]

 

Not on day one. During the year? Possible, likely even, but not on opening day.

Hi Mike,

 

You are right: not on day one--I meant later in the season (how much later, I don't know, but I think he might be a steal of that draft for the Twins).

 

[drock2190]

Eric Thames would be a nice masher to have from the left side of the plate. He strikes out more but has a better WAR then Cron.

[cmoss84]

I don't mind going either way with Cron. 

 

Does anyone know if Castellanos can play first? He would be a great bat to add to this lineup! 

[yarnivek1972]

I think the Twins will chew up some of the ~$60M the original poster estimated was available with extensions to players still under team control.

 

Locking up Berrios should be priority 1. After that, I would like to see Sano and Buxton extended. I think the next guy up could be Arraez (there was a really good discussion on his future value to the Twins on this site a couple weeks ago).

 

I think Rosario is the most replaceable of the group of players looking for extensions, so as we discuss making a trade for pitching, he is someone I would be ok sending elsewhere in a trade.

 

Garver, as another poster mentioned, will be in his mid-30s by the time he is a free agent. If he moves over to 1B at some point in his career, an extension might make sense, but as a catcher, I think the Twins are better off just going through arbitration each year.

Why? This is a guy who can literally not stay on the field. Sure, maybe if he takes a cheap deal. But, why would he? He’s not going to make any less going year to year and if I’m Falvine I have zero incentive to offer more than what he projects in arb.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Here is something to ponder for discussion...which player has more trade value going into the 2020 off-season...

 

Eddie Rosario, Trevor Larnach, or Alex Kiriloff.

 

Corner outfielders aren't worth a ton. Never have been. It is one of the easiest positions to fill in all of MLB. 

 

All the fawning over Larnach, Kiriloff I don't get. They are Jason Kubel. If someone asks for them in a trade for someone you really want in your pitching rotation, I do it in a heartbeat without even thinking about it. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

All the fawning over Larnach, Kiriloff I don't get. They are Jason Kubel. If someone asks for them in a trade for someone you really want in your pitching rotation, I do it in a heartbeat without even thinking about it. 

I don't think that's really fair. Kubel would have been a vastly different player had his knee not exploded in the AFL. He went from a capable corner defender to a plodding DH in almost an instant, sapping a ton of peripheral value from his career.

[nicksaviking]

How likely is it they've made huge offers, only to have every one of them turned down.... By every big time pitcher?

I think it’s unlikely the Twins have been ever made the top offer to what most of us would consider to be an elite pitcher. At least not since McPhail left.

 

But I also think it’s unlikely many, if any, of those pitchers would have come here if the Twins did.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Win total is a hollow argument? Did you really just say that?

 

I mean, it's not as if MLB chooses which teams make the postseason based off win totals or anything but I still think it's somewhat important.

In the context of what they'll spend next year, and the current state of the pitching staff, yeah, it is. 101 wins means they didn't fail to aptly address the pitching staff and instead cut payroll? They're in good shape with Dobnak starting game 3 and a bullpen with an unreliable front end expected to pitch the entirety of game 4? That's a stretch, even for you Brock. 

 

They had the luxury of playing in a terrible division and an extremely top heavy AL. They're the only playoff team in the AL, including both WC participants, with a losing record against .500 or better teams. They've feasted on bad baseball clubs, which is exactly what they're supposed to do, but that shouldn't scrub away underlying issues. If MN is in the West or East they aren't winning 101 games; hell, there's a good chance they miss the postseason altogether. Even Cleveland, who was far more impacted by injuries than the Twins, managed to win 93 games in the Central and took the season series vs. MN. The Twins have a great offense and a pitching staff that's a liability heading into this series vs. NY. Propping their win total up as some indicator that all is well, or all resources were exhausted in attempting to address issues is akin to saying a starter pitched well because he got the W. Hollow....

 

It's a shame the infatuation with the "flexibility to spend next year," may cost them a deep postseason run in the present. 

 

[Thegrin]

 

We'll never know until we make a legitimate offer to someone.

We'll probably never know about the legitimate offers that were turned down because it was the Twins. 

[BD57]

 

Those two statements are kind of humorous together.

 

Yes, we all love Romo. He's great and provides delightful soundbites.

 

But all those things you said about Romo are also said about Gibson. He's regarded as one of the best people in the clubhouse and a great human being.

 

As evidenced by him powering through an awful disease (contracted during charity work, mind you) and just trying to play in any capacity allowed by Baldelli.

 

I simply do not understand why Twins fans hate Gibson so much. I mean, I do understand, but I don't get why we can't separate the man from the performance. From everything I've ever read or heard, Kyle Gibson is a person I want in my clubhouse.

 

It's the "nibbling."

 

Romo goes right after hitters.  If he gets beat, he gets beat going after hitters, throwing strikes.

 

When Gibson gets beat, it's because he "loses it."   Guy gets on base, and he walks the next guy; gets a guy down 0-2, and then doesn't come near the strike zone after that, until it gets to the point where he throws something "fat" and it gets hit.

 

Romo has a slider that moves, hard.  It allows him to be successful even though he only has a "minus" fastball these days.  He's fearless, and everyone knows it.

 

Gibson does not project "fearlessness," even though his fastball, when he's healthy, tops out at  94-95.   As the year's gone on, the way he's pitched, it looks like he's afraid to throw the ball where hitters can get a bat on it.  It strikes me that he's pressing, trying to be "perfect," which is a recipe for failure.  

 

Simply put, Gibson seems like he's teetering on the precipice of disaster all the time - giving him a "clean inning" with a three run lead just doesn't seem like enough.  All the good work he did last year, when it looked like he'd finally figured some things out, has gone away.

 

By every account, Gibson is a good man and teammate.  He's a guy you'd want to be successful for more reasons than just "it helps the team" - there have just been too many implosions.

[JW24]

 

Why? This is a guy who can literally not stay on the field. Sure, maybe if he takes a cheap deal. But, why would he? He’s not going to make any less going year to year and if I’m Falvine I have zero incentive to offer more than what he projects in arb.

I like Buxton and what he does when he is healthy. I also think he will figure out a way to stay healthy. Obviously, his history is that he hasn't been able to, so I can understand your apprehension. I guess I am just more optimistic on Buxton's career outlook moving forward than you are.

 

I think there is mutual incentive for the Twins and Buxton to make a deal. Given Buxton's history, getting long-term stability might be appealing. The Twins could potentially walk away with a bargain if Buxton can play 150 games per season as he was on pace for a 7 win season before getting injured this year.

 

At the end of the day, I trust the FO to make the right decision with how to proceed with Buxton.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I don't think that's really fair. Kubel would have been a vastly different player had his knee not exploded in the AFL. He went from a capable corner defender to a plodding DH in almost an instant, sapping a ton of peripheral value from his career.

 

Their minor league hitting numbers are pretty similar.

 

And I would still package and trade any of them in an instant without blinking if it brings back high end pitching.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Their minor league hitting numbers are pretty similar.

 

And I would still package and trade any of them in an instant without blinking if it brings back high end pitching.

Oh, I’d trade either for pitching, too. I was simply mentioning that the Kubel we saw in MLB was a diminished version of the player. His career likely would have played out quite differently if not for that knee.