It's going to be a long four days before Game 1 so I was thinking about the 2020 payroll situation. Specifically, how much money we will have to spend on the barren pitching rotation.

 

I'm assuming Perez's option isn't picked up, non-tender for Dyson and initially I'm assuming Cron is non-tendered (although I could see him getting offered arbitration). I'm assuming all others are tendered and Cruz's option is picked up.

 

I'm rounding the Pre-Arb guys down to 500k for easy math and I'm making WILD guesses on arbitration numbers. Seriously. I might be way off, I didn't want to dig into all that research. Please correct me if you have better speculation than my wild guesses.

 

26-man Roster

C - Garver - 500k

1B - ??

2B - Arraez - 500k

3B - Sano - 5M (arb)

SS - Polanco - 3.8M

LF - Rosario - 6M (arb)

CF - Buxton - 3M (arb)

RF - Kepler - 6.3M

DH - Cruz - 12M

 

B - Wade/Cave 500k (take your pick, but I doubt it's both)

B - Adrianza - 2M (arb)

B - Astudillo - 500k

B - Gonzalez - 9M

 

SP - Berrios - 2.5M (arb)

SP - Dobnak - 500k

SP - ??

SP - ??

SP - ??

 

RP - Rogers - 3.5M (arb)

RP - May - 2M (arb)

RP - Duffey - 1.5M (arb)

RP - Littell - 500k

RP - ??

RP - ??

RP - ??

RP - ??

 

I believe that rolls up to $60.1M

 

The lineup is pretty much set with a question at 1B (Marwin?), backup Catcher (Tortuga?), and maybe that last bench spot depending on what you consider Marwin.

 

As for the pitching staff, there's where we have our question marks. Lot's of internal options on the relief side.

New year... new fresh look for Hildy and Romero? Maybe. I hope so.

Regardless, I suspect Romo is back for ~$3M, two internal guys making the minimum, and one other mid-tier RP signing for, let's say $5M. So that puts us at $70M and probably three SP slots to fill. 

 

It's incredible to me the variety of payroll answers you can get, depending on what website you go to, but let's call 2019's payroll $130M once you include dead money (Hughes and Reed) and buyouts (Morrison and Santana).

 

That leaves us $60M to spend on filling out the rotation. Plenty of money. 

Plenty to pay Cole and two other guys. Not to mention 2019 was lower payroll than 2018. And, they keep saying they'll spend money when the window is open. 

You really think Romo will be signed by the Twins? I'd be surprised. Will Dyson be able to pitch in the second half of 2020? I'd guess we'll keep him if so. 

 

At least I would expect we offer Odorizzi the QO. Maybe re-sign Gibson. 

 

No way we outbid about 15 other teams for Gerrit Cole. No way.  

I wonder what it would take Cole to sign a 5 year deal with options for year 6 and 7 and maybe an opt-out after year 3. $25-30 mil a year? Go big on the front end and light on the back knowing you'll need extra money to pay your core guys? The opt-out would ensure him one more run at a shorter term, high salary deal at age 33. Does how far Minnesota goes in the playoffs matter? Does Cole like playing in Texas? I think he'd have to be blown away to not resign with Houston. Yankees could offer him a ton of money. I can't really see him going back to the NL considering he's been dominant in the AL and doesn't have to hit which allows him to pitch later into games. 

 

I believe the Twins need to come away with at least two of Cole, Wheeler, Bumgarner, Teheran (if option isn't picked up), or Odorizzi. Especially if they aren't willing to deal prospects to acquire a younger, controllable starter. If the Twins go into the season with Dobnak as the #2, I think the team is in trouble. Even signing just Cole is a great start. If they could sign him, maybe you rethink trading the prospects. $60 million is a lot of money to play around with. No one should be off the table if they think he'll be a contributor over the next 3-5 years.

QO Odo, and offer Gibby.  That means we are looking for 1 great arm to slot in at #1 or #2. Odorizzi would be a great #3 and Gibby, if healthy, would be a better than average #4.

 

Yes, that means we can compete for Cole or someone like that. Maybe.

 

I'd approach Bummer for sure. Wheeler maybe

You really think Romo will be signed by the Twins? I'd be surprised. Will Dyson be able to pitch in the second half of 2020? I'd guess we'll keep him if so.

 

At least I would expect we offer Odorizzi the QO. Maybe re-sign Gibson.

 

No way we outbid about 15 other teams for Gerrit Cole. No way.

I'm pretty sure the recovery for Dyson's surgery is 12-14 months, so he won't pitch next year.

 

Why would Romo coming back surprise you?

I'd like Cole, but I'm still skeptical money alone would bring a southern California kid to these parts. Hope he does though. I also think Odorizzi gets a QO, the pitching market stinks this year though so he might turn it down; it's possible he'll be the second most desirable starter on the market. Or maybe the Twins work out an extension with him.

 

I wish that circumstances would have allowed for Rooker, Raley or Wiel to get a look at the MLB this past season to have been options for 1B to start 2020, as they didn't get that chance, I'd bet Cron sticks around. Which still wouldn't be the worst thing to happen to this club.

I just can’t envision the Twins paying the exorbitant prices Cole or MadBum will likely get this offseason and I’m not necessarily disappointed by that at all.

 

My guess is they reach an agreement on a 3 or 4 year deal with Odorizzi, pick up Perez’s option and capitalize Gibson’s health concerns and Pineda’s suspension by giving them both a one year make good deal.

 

I for one would be thrilled with that outcome. They could at least start the year with the same rotation they rode to 101 wins with lots of quality depth in AAA (Graterol, Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Goncalves) and an exciting group in AA (Duran, Balazovich, Sands, Ober, etc).

 

This combination of returning vets and prospects would allow the FO to tinker throughout the season and build the optimal rotation (And bullpen) organically just like they did with the bullpen this season.

 

Cruz and Cron returning should both be no brainers and they should at least make a competitive offer to keep Castro. Hell even maintain dialogue with Schoop, if he’d take another one year deal he’s a useful piece.

 

Depth is the way to go!

Edited September 30, 20197 yr by twinkiesfan11

 

I'd like Cole, but I'm still skeptical money alone would bring a southern California kid to these parts. Hope he does though. I also think Odorizzi gets a QO, the pitching market stinks this year though so he might turn it down; it's possible he'll be the second most desirable starter on the market. Or maybe the Twins work out an extension with him.

 

I wish that circumstances would have allowed for Rooker, Raley or Wiel to get a look at the MLB this past season to have been options for 1B to start 2020, as they didn't get that chance, I'd bet Cron sticks around. Which still wouldn't be the worst thing to happen to this club.

 

I'd like Cole, but I'm still skeptical money alone would bring a southern California kid to these parts. Hope he does though. I also think Odorizzi gets a QO, the pitching market stinks this year though so he might turn it down; it's possible he'll be the second most desirable starter on the market. Or maybe the Twins work out an extension with him.

 

I wish that circumstances would have allowed for Rooker, Raley or Wiel to get a look at the MLB this past season to have been options for 1B to start 2020, as they didn't get that chance, I'd bet Cron sticks around. Which still wouldn't be the worst thing to happen to this club.

 

We'll never know until we make a legitimate offer to someone.

I think at this point you can pencil in Stashak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer...I'd tentatively put Smeltzer as a starter but he could go to the pen if the Twins find a way to get three (!) starters from outside.

 

Also Graterol and Alcala may start in the minors but aren't likely to be there for long.

Would LOVE getting both Bumgarner and Hamels. We have so much youth coming up who can learn from them. They can both be 4.00 ERA and 175 inn guys too. 

 

Cole not gonna happen...but if it does, wowza. 

I realize it's a bit of a waste of Sano's athleticism, but signing Rendon and moving Sano over to 1st makes the Twins lineup nightmarish.  I know many have their eyes set on Cole, but I'd rather then Twins spend on position players and trade for pitchers.

My guess is that we will be signing middle of line pitcher they think has upside that has been there history or we trade for similar pitcher like that. Odorizzi was pitcher like that. I would think they may sign Gibson because i think he will not command high price tag for 2year deal maybe 3 year deal. I really think they make push sign Berios to longer term extension to match up with this core group of players. I got to believe we have to have some talented pitchers ready to make the jump from minors to majors we haven't seen yet. Also possible some of the aging pitchers on some different teams will be available for prospect if were willing to take some of the salary on.  I was looking there are number of free agent pitchers available this year and my guess the market may be in favor of the Twins because all clubs do not want to invest lengthy contracts on pitchers but if the Twins were willing to offer higher 2 and 3 year deals they might land quality pitcher. I think a lot will be determined on how far the Twins go this fall in the playoffs and how different pitchers perform.

Let's start with signing Odorizzi and Pineda. Cole might not want to come here and he's going to demand too much money. Getting either Bumgarner or Hamels would be great! Try to get Rendon play 3B, Sano can take over at 1B. Cron can be non-tendered. This is going to be a better team.

Edited September 30, 20197 yr by jz7233

Who starts the first eight or nine starts for Pineda? I'm assuming Dobnak is already in the rotation..... And if anyone is hurt, you are now on your third or fourth best AAA starter.....

 

Also, Pineda has made it thru zero seasons healthy in, what, four years? Five?

 

That leaves us $60M to spend on filling out the rotation. Plenty of money. 

Never underestimate this organizations penchant to cheap out. The same sentiment was echoed last year along with the "flexibility," and "sustainable success," catchphrases.

 

Here we are with a young group of position players performing at a high level, carrying the team into the postseason, and we're treated to Randy Dobnak starting at home in game 3, with game 4 (if we get that far) looking like a bullpen game. 

 

Never underestimate this organizations penchant to cheap out. The same sentiment was echoed last year along with the "flexibility," and "sustainable success," catchphrases.

 

 

 

I tend to not think that way, but can understand the people that do.

 

The "wait until the window is open" talk from the FO needs to end now. It's obvious the window is open. If that talk doesn't end and aggressive action isn't taken, more people will be on your side of things.

Edited October 1, 20197 yr by amjgt

As for what I would try to do...

 

Offer Odorizzi a 3/45 contract. A qualifying offer wouldn't be the worst thing for the Twins, which would be something like 18M for next year, but I'm sure Odo and his agent really want to avoid hitting the free agent market with draft compensation hanging over their head.

 

Go for Cole, but realize that there literally might not be a number he would accept and quickly Pivot to Bumgarner if necessary. I'd have no issue going 5/150 for Cole, but hey, it's not my money. As for MadBum, I'd be good at 2/32, but he's only barely 30yo and is probably looking for a longer deal than that.

 

Offer Pineda a choice between 1/12 or 2/18. I'm good with either one. If he doesn't have interest, then task the analytics department with finding a buy low reclamation project.

 

Assuming we don't get Cole that leaves us with still a boatload of payroll "space" for a big splash in the lineup. Why not try for Rendon? The window is open, but why are we worrying about windows when we can go full KoolAid man on the wall....

 

 

 

I tend to not think that way, but can understand the people that do.

 

The "wait until the window is open" talk from the FO needs to end now. It's obvious the window is open. If that talk doesn't end and aggressive action isn't taken, more people will be on your side of things.

The window was open this year. If they couldn’t see that then......

Trade for Mike Trout. Call it a day.

 

The window was open this year. If they couldn’t see that then......

 

Before the season? I'd say that's at least up for discussion. 

 

During the season, there's only so much they could do. Maybe they made a legitimate trade offer for an ace, but the other teams just weren't interested. 

It may be a little too expensive for ownership, but hey we’re trying to win a WS right??

 

RF- Max Kepler ($6M)

2B- Jorge Polanco ($4M)

DH- Nelson Cruz ($12M)

1B- Carlos Santana ($21M)???

3B- Miguel Sano ($4M)

LF- Eddie Rosario ($5M)

C- Mitch Garver ($3M)

CF- Byron Buxton ($2M)

2B- Luis Arraez ($500k)

 

Lamonte Wade ($500k)

Marwin Gonzalez ($9M)

Willians Astudillo ($500k)

Ehire Adrianza ($1M)

 

SP- Jose Berrios ($3M)

SP- Brusdar Graterol ($500k)

SP- Jake Odorizzi ($17M) (QO)

SP- Dallas Keuchel ($15M) (2yr/$30)

SP- Rick Porcello ($8M) (1yr/$8M)

 

CL- Edwin Diaz ($600k)

RP- Raisel Iglesias ($9M)

RP- Fernando Romero ($500k)

RP- Taylor Rogers ($3M)

RP- Hector Rondon ($4M) (2yr/$8M)

RP- Martin Perez ($7M)

RP- Jorge Alcala ($500k)

RP- Trevor May ($2M)

 

$138M

 

If Santana’s not a viable option then I’d be fine with bringing back Cron, Castro, and Romo.

General question.... Who would people rather have Rendon or Cole? Let's assume the annual price tag is the same, although Rendon is likely asking for a longer contract. 

General question.... Who would people rather have Rendon or Cole? Let's assume the annual price tag is the same, although Rendon is likely asking for a longer contract.

 

Rendon.

General question.... Who would people rather have Rendon or Cole? Let's assume the annual price tag is the same, although Rendon is likely asking for a longer contract.

Rendon

Before the season? I'd say that's at least up for discussion.

 

During the season, there's only so much they could do. Maybe they made a legitimate trade offer for an ace, but the other teams just weren't interested.

And yet, I keep reading they can just trade for one this off season.... It isn't that easy. There have to be good pitchers available....

General question.... Who would people rather have Rendon or Cole? Let's assume the annual price tag is the same, although Rendon is likely asking for a longer contract.

Cole. No choice. They have no one close to him in the majors or minors. They have plenty of hitters coming.

Rendon.

And where do you get pitching then? Remember, only grienke and Stroman were traded at the deadline.

Let's see what happens in the playoffs this year before moving the payroll numbers.

 

Looks like young arms, and a lot of them, is the new money-ball play.

 

Things are changing fast, but if Cole and Verlander run the table in the playoffs, maybe the market will value SP higher.

 

One or two innings of non-elite pitching can get the job done as Tampa Bay has proven.

And where do you get pitching then? Remember, only grienke and Stroman were traded at the deadline.

I’d still get pitching...but, in this scenario, it wouldn’t be Cole. I’m not saying I don’t want Cole. But as you have called out and I agree: you’d need at least one or two more starters, even if you signed Cole. I just think Rendon is a perfect fit for the Twins...answers the longer-term future at 3rd and the immediate future at 1st. I probably have a bias toward position players vs pitchers when it comes to the huge/long contracts, as well. Still, I’d gladly take Cole. And I think you can argue that a 2019 version of Cole is more valuable for the modern playoff format than another stud position player.