Article: Terry Ryan: Twins Will Chase "Pretty Darn Good" Pitcher

[ThePuck]

Haren had an off year for sure...or off first half...but I'd label him as a guy who has ACE stuff. He's a guy you normally get over 200 IP near 200Ks and an ERA low to mid 3.00s. I'd take that especially from a AL pitcher

[Mike Sixel]

Is that list any worse than the last 5 years, though?

[nicksaviking]

Add Haren and Peavy and the list looks pretty damn good.

 

Ryan didn't give away a lot, but when asked if he plans on offering multi-year deals to pitchers, he said you can't sign one if you don't.

 

That is somewhat telling and possibly encouraging seeing as he has not used that philosophy in the past. It reminds me of early in the year when he was questioned about drafting control verses power arms in the draft. He (fibbed and) said the team always valued power arms. Previously it was obvious they did not, but after the draft it was obvious they had changed philosophy. I hope his suggestion about multi-year deals for pitchers is another stubborn change.

[twinsnorth49]

Here's last years crop, 31 available starting pitchers average age (throwing out Wakefield) 31.87, aces? Some might debate Wilson, I won't. This year, 16 available, average age, 32.18, aces? Grienke appears debatable, he's closer than Wilson in my mind.

 

With the greatest over-riding factor being every team needs and wants better starting pitching, this is a pretty thin list by comparison. Trades are definitely going to be the order of the day, especially considering the guy we ended up with from last year's, "deeper" list, was Jason Marquis![TABLE=class: alternate_rows, align: center]

[/TD]

Erik Bedard

32

Andrew Brackman

26

Mark Buehrle

32

Chris Capuano

33

Bruce Chen

34

Bartolo Colon

38

Aaron Cook

32

Yu Darvish

25

Jeff Francis

30

Freddy Garcia

35

Jon Garland

32

Aaron Harang

33

Rich Harden

29

Livan Hernandez

36

Hisashi Iwakuma

30

Edwin Jackson

28

Hiroki Kuroda

36

Rodrigo Lopez

35

Paul Maholm

29

Jason Marquis

33

Kevin Millwood

36

Roy Oswalt

34

Micah Owings

29

Brad Penny

33

Joel Pineiro

33

Jo-Jo Reyes

27

Joe Saunders

30

Javier Vazquez

35

Tsuyoshi Wada

30

Tim Wakefield

45

Chien-Ming Wang

31

Brandon Webb

32

Dontrelle Willis

29

C.J. Wilson

30

[TD]

Chris Young

[/TABLE]

[Shane Wahl]

This is the crop of FA starters. Some others may have options declined or released or just wouldn't likely fit, rumored trouble makers or injured.

When nearly every team needs pitching this is a very thin list.

 

[TABLE]

[/TD]

[TD]2012 war based on 80+ innings

Erik Bedard (34)

1.3

Joe Blanton (32)

2.4

Kevin Correia (32)

.8

Ryan Dempster (36)

3.3

Zack Greinke (28)

5.1

Dan Haren (32)

1.8

Edwin Jackson (29)

2.7

Hiroki Kuroda (38)

3.9

Kyle Lohse (34)

3.6

Paul Maholm (31)

2.5

Shaun Marcum (31)

1.4

Brandon McCarthy (29)

1.8

Kevin Millwood (38)

2.0

Anibal Sanchez (29)

3.8

Ervin Santana (30)

-.9

Joe Saunders (32)

2.5

[/TABLE]

 

Thanks for posting this. I believe that the Twins should, realistically, contend for both Jackson and Marcum. But I think that they WILL pursue two of: Marcum, McCarthy, Saunders, Blanton, Maholm (please no!) and Santana. Santana's 2013 is not going to be that bad. He is likely to have a strong bounceback season. Greinke, Haren, Sanchez, and Dempster are going to be out of reach unless the Twins only add one pitcher, and even then, only Greinke fits the bill. I don't actually believe that pursuing one top top guy is better than pursuing two second-tier guys, honestly.

[Shane Wahl]

For people who doubt based on Josh Willingham's contract blah, blah, blah . . . the Twins have money to spend and need to spend it, especially, for the millionth time, that after 2013, the payroll REALLY drops significantly and hopefully in 2014, 2015, and 2016, the vast majority of the non-Mauer roster is composed on sub $1 million players like Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Hicks, Benson, Gibson, Hendriks, Salcedo, Berrios, Harrison, Boyd, etc.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

For people who doubt based on Josh Willingham's contract blah, blah, blah . . . the Twins have money to spend and need to spend it, especially, for the millionth time, that after 2013, the payroll REALLY drops significantly and hopefully in 2014, 2015, and 2016, the vast majority of the non-Mauer roster is composed on sub $1 million players like Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Hicks, Benson, Gibson, Hendriks, Salcedo, Berrios, Harrison, Boyd, etc.

 

Blah, blah, blah... the Twins history of not doling out large contracts to FA, especially pitchers, would lead one to expect the Twins will not sign a major pitching name this offseason, rather they will sign 1-2 back-end starters for 1-2 years, $5-7 mil per season. Opinions from the Twins fans regarding the amount of money the team has to spend this year can't possibly have any value as their payroll budget has not been released yet.

[Riverbrian]

I gotta agree with Shane here.... We have one pitcher in Diamond slotted for the 2013 rotation right now. We have money coming off the books. Not signing at least half way decent arms would be criminal. Any GM in the land can see this. Even if you throwing away 2013 for a 2014 or 2015 build. You still have to spend some FA dollars this year with contracts that roll into the years that follow.

 

We all know the past history. It simply doesn't apply right now. If we don't make significant additions to the pitching staff in the off season. I swear to all... I will make Thrylos look pale when I personally assess Terrry Ryan.

 

That should scare them... riverbrian will type nasty stuff.

[bobonewsome]

Sorry John, but when it comes down to who are you going to believe, I'll take Ryan.

[ScottyB]

I'll throw one more log on the fire - Hisahi Iwakuma (31) & 1.9 WAR. Twins went after him hard when there was a posting fee and lost out to the A's. He played out his time in Japan, became a free-agent, signed a 1-year deal with the Mariners ($1.5M) and was 9-5; 1.28 WHIP; 3.16 ERA. Started the year in the pen and ended in the rotation - 16 games started and 125.1 Innings. Now that there's no posting fee and he had decent stats, why wouldn't the Twins go after him? Low on radar, decent on potential.

[Thrylos]

I think that it is thin in quality not quantity. And the Twins in order to be competitive need at least 3 pitchers better than Diamond. How many of them are available as Free Agents. Heck, how many of the free agents available are better than a fixed Baker? So, yeah... pretty thin in quality. The trade marker on the other hand is a different story.

[ThePuck]

Sorry John, but when it comes down to who are you going to believe, I'll take Ryan.

 

Ryan has been caught in a straight up lie more than once...

[ThePuck]

For people who doubt based on Josh Willingham's contract blah, blah, blah . . . the Twins have money to spend and need to spend it, especially, for the millionth time, that after 2013, the payroll REALLY drops significantly and hopefully in 2014, 2015, and 2016, the vast majority of the non-Mauer roster is composed on sub $1 million players like Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Hicks, Benson, Gibson, Hendriks, Salcedo, Berrios, Harrison, Boyd, etc.

 

Didn't the Twins have money to spend on pitching this offseason? They dropped payroll by 18M...

[PseudoSABR]

Sorry John, but when it comes down to who are you going to believe, I'll take Ryan.

 

Ryan has been caught in a straight up lie more than once...

I'd like to see evidence of this. I'm sure he's guilty of misrepresentations, half-truths, distortions, but "straight up" lies?

[iastfan112]

Give me a Brandon McCarthy, not a sexy signing by any means but I think A.) He'll come cheap due to injury and playing in Oakland and B.) He seems like a Twins type pitcher.

 

If the Twins had the money to swing it Haren's pretty attractive as well. Pretty close to ace quality typically. If they want to go complete bargain bin give me Bedard.

[70charger]

Give me a Brandon McCarthy, not a sexy signing by any means but I think A.) He'll come cheap due to injury and playing in Oakland and B.) He seems like a Twins type pitcher.

 

If the Twins had the money to swing it Haren's pretty attractive as well. Pretty close to ace quality typically. If they want to go complete bargain bin give me Bedard.

 

I agree with all of these things. If this is the direction they ended up going, I would be content.

[ThePuck]

Sorry John, but when it comes down to who are you going to believe, I'll take Ryan.

 

Ryan has been caught in a straight up lie more than once...

I'd like to see evidence of this. I'm sure he's guilty of misrepresentations, half-truths, distortions, but "straight up" lies?

 

When he trade Castillo, he said he only traded him cause "I didn't anticipate re-signing him at the end [of the season], so we ended up getting a couple players in return before October,". Then a day or two later he said he would have traded him even if he wasn't a pending free agent.

 

So one of those statements is a lie.

[ThePuck]

'Give me a Brandon McCarthy, not a sexy signing by any means but I think A.) He'll come cheap due to injury and playing in Oakland and B.) He seems like a Twins type pitcher.'

 

 

Yes, he is a pitch to contact, low strike out pitcher

[PseudoSABR]

Sorry John, but when it comes down to who are you going to believe, I'll take Ryan.

 

Ryan has been caught in a straight up lie more than once...

I'd like to see evidence of this. I'm sure he's guilty of misrepresentations, half-truths, distortions, but "straight up" lies?

 

When he trade Castillo, he said he only traded him cause "I didn't anticipate re-signing him at the end [of the season], so we ended up getting a couple players in return before October,". Then a day or two later he said he would have traded him even if he wasn't a pending free agent.

 

So one of those statements is a lie.

That's pretty thin, especially without a quote to support the second assertion. Even if he made the two assertions, I'm not sure it makes TR a straight up liar. The first quote can be found here for those curious.

[Kwak]

A risk of a long contract (4+ years) on a pitcher makes sense. The Twins will need someone to serve as an anchor in the rotation to demonstrate that there is stability and that the team is actually rebuilding as opposed to just "plugging holes". Consider what DET did after their debacle of a 43 win season. They way overpaid for Ordonez, but that showed that management was building a foundation to win consistently. True, they did get extremely lucky to land Verlander, but many teams have made a great leap forward by adding one player--maybe the Twins will (someday)? But, they need to start building a foundation for the rotation--Now!

[notoriousgod71]

Great, Joe Saunders or Jeremy Guthrie it is. Color me unimpressed.

[Cris E]

Mark Buerhle has three expensive years left, but if the Fish were offered real players or prospects he might come with a scholarship. I'd make that call to find out

[Otwins]

Guthrie is a definite upgrade. Pitched well when he got out of Coors. Pitched solid in AL East which is more than any of our pitchers could do. No ace but we aren't getting three aces.

[Shane Wahl]

I don't understand any desire to have McCarthy. Another guy who doesn't strike anybody out. The Twins should honestly restrict their search to pitchers with 7+ k/9. I will leave it to someone else to narrow that list down . . .

 

But it is CLEAR to me that these 5 or 6 k/9 pitchers should not be ADDED to the rotation. Doesn't anyone remember Santana and Liriano? Even Boof!? To rely on the Diamonds and Radkes is not going to be good. Those are guys who serve well as the 3rd pitcher. Jackson at 3/33 and Marcum at 2/16 could get the job done. Just saying.

[Shane Wahl]

Jeremy Guthrie is not very good. FYI. Same with Saunders. Seriously, there is NO point signing these guys as opposed to turning to Deduno, DeVries, Walters, Hendriks, or even Bromberg (who *should* be considered, given that he was actually quite good through 2010). The result is going to be about the EXACT same for millions less if they go in-house. The Twins should stick to second-tier pitchers, not third or fourth tier. They have plenty of third and fourth-tier pitchers right now.

[Shane Wahl]

The market has been weird. Consider the difference last offseason between the Mark Buerhle signing and the Edwin Jackson signing. To me a comparable situation might occur this year with Dan Haren and Shaun Marcum. And the difference in performance between those two groups of pitchers is NOT $30-40 million over 3-4 years.

 

Doesn't it seem like there is the following:

 

Tier One:

Grienke

A. Sanchez

Dempster

Haren

Peavy (I guess)

 

Tier two:

Jackson

Kuroda

Lohse

Marcum

 

Tier three:

Blanton

Saunders

McCarthy

Bedard

Maholm

Millwood

Santana

Correia

 

I submit that Santana might be worth giving a shot out of tier three, but I just don't like bothering with any of those other guys when millions of dollars would be wasted for replacement level pitching.

[old nurse]

I think that it is thin in quality not quantity. And the Twins in order to be competitive need at least 3 pitchers better than Diamond. How many of them are available as Free Agents. Heck, how many of the free agents available are better than a fixed Baker? So, yeah... pretty thin in quality. The trade marker on the other hand is a different story.

 

WAR seems to be a big deal on this thread. By Fangraphs WAR, the Twins would have a difficult time signing three pitchers better than Diamond

[Shane Wahl]

I think that it is thin in quality not quantity. And the Twins in order to be competitive need at least 3 pitchers better than Diamond. How many of them are available as Free Agents. Heck, how many of the free agents available are better than a fixed Baker? So, yeah... pretty thin in quality. The trade marker on the other hand is a different story.

 

WAR seems to be a big deal on this thread. By Fangraphs WAR, the Twins would have a difficult time signing three pitchers better than Diamond

 

Yeah. First, the available pitchers above Diamond are: Greinke, Peavy, Kuroda, Sanchez, Lohse, Dempster, and Jackson. Second, no more than one of those pitchers are even possibly coming to the Twins. Dumping Gardy and Andy to get Lohse might have been worth it. Jackson would be. But alas.

 

I don't expect Diamond to repeat, but I also don't think his performance is going to fall very much.

[ThePuck]

Sorry John, but when it comes down to who are you going to believe, I'll take Ryan.

 

Ryan has been caught in a straight up lie more than once...

I'd like to see evidence of this. I'm sure he's guilty of misrepresentations, half-truths, distortions, but "straight up" lies?

 

When he trade Castillo, he said he only traded him cause "I didn't anticipate re-signing him at the end [of the season], so we ended up getting a couple players in return before October,". Then a day or two later he said he would have traded him even if he wasn't a pending free agent.

 

So one of those statements is a lie.

That's pretty thin, especially without a quote to support the second assertion. Even if he made the two assertions, I'm not sure it makes TR a straight up liar. The first quote can be found here for those curious.

 

It happen how long ago, now? Took me forever to find the first quote...but this isn't the first time this has come up in conversations about him so it wasn't hard to remember. I remember him saying it live and reading it afterwards and saying, um, wait a minute. Just a couple days ago he said the reason he traded him was cause he didn't envision him re-signing him and now he says THIS?

 

But it really doesn't matter, believe it, don't believe it, that's on you. I know what he said and didn't....and I don't trust him at all

[PseudoSABR]

But it really doesn't matter, believe it, don't believe it, that's on you. I know what he said and didn't....and I don't trust him at all

Fair enough. I just tend to give people a bit of slack when they are also playing the PR game after a publicly denounced transaction. I just don't think there's really any reason to mistrust TR more than any other GM or Manager; I think some of the job involves PR-speak; in fact, TR has struck me as one of the more straight forward guys in the industry.