Front Page: Miguel Sano and His Future in Minnesota

[Patrick Wozniak]

I can still remember the first time I saw Miguel Sano play. The year was 2012 and my brother and I made the road trip from Minneapolis to Beloit to join our cousin and watch the Snappers, who were the Minnesota Twins low-A affiliate at the time, take on the Clinton Lumberjacks in the playoffs. That team had several future big-leaguers, including Eddie Rosario, Kennys Vargas (who somehow managed to make Sano look tiny), and Zach Jones. I remember being a bit disappointed in Eddie Rosario’s lack of plate discipline as he took wild hacks and being really impressed by Jones’ 96-mph fastball (that seemed really fast back then), but the main reason we had come was to see Miguel Sano – and he did not disappoint.We arrived just in time to see Miguel Sano hit a double to the gap and later come in to score on a head-first slide. He would go on to hit a mammoth home run that seemed like it cleared the fence in left field by a mile (he would also go on to sign the Sano Snappers shirsey I was sporting after the game). Beloit would end up losing that series and Sano’s season would come to an end, but it was easy to dream big about what the future would behold for the young slugger.

 

Since that day way back in 2012 Miguel Sano has had his share of ups and downs. Sano continued to put up big numbers in the minors but missed all of 2014 after having Tommy John surgery. He earned his call-up after beginning 2015 in AA, and looked the part of a superstar by putting up a .269/.385/.530 triple slash with a 149 wRC+ in half a season with the Twins. In 2016 the Twins made the questionable decision of sticking Sano in right field to keep Trevor Plouff at third and Sano’s offense probably suffered along with his defensive woes. Sano was given the hot corner for good in 2017 and responded with a better performance (125 wRC+ compared to 107wRC+ in 2016) and even made the All-star team, but a leg injury kept Sano out for six weeks and led to offseason surgery in which a titanium rod was inserted into his shin to reinforce the bone. 2018 was a complete disaster that saw Sano sent down to Fort Meyers after hitting just .199/.281/.398 in 71 games for Minnesota.

 

Things appeared to turn around for Sano in the offseason as he was praised for working hard to get in shape and shed some pounds , but he suffered a cut on his heel when he slipped on metal stairs during a championship celebration in the Dominican Winter League. Because of the injury Sano missed spring training and his season didn’t begin until mid-May. Sano had an up and down first half but has really come around since, making some adjustments to his swing in late June. He hit two home runs against the Chicago White Sox on June 28th and hasn’t looked back. Prior to that game, Sano was slashing just .195/.278/.438, but in the 71 games he has appeared in since then, he has excelled to .269/.373/.617 for an OPS of .989 including 24 dingers.

 

Since turning a corner, Sano’s numbers are strikingly similar to another Dominican slugger on the team – Nelson Cruz. The similarities are probably not coincidental as Cruz has been instrumental in aiding Sano. The 39-year-old veteran has made himself available to Sano and the two are close. Cruz is known for his preparation and work ethic, which rightly or wrongly is something that has been questioned in Sano. Sano has definitely looked locked in at the plate, as he has been able to lay off balls in the dirt and high heat, and has been better able to catch up with fastballs. The two recently sat down with FSN’s Justin Moreau and one interesting tidbit Cruz talked about was helping Sano make some in-game adjustments that led to a massive homer in Boston.

 

Sano is under team control for another two seasons, but this offseason the Twins may want to consider trying to extend Sano. Sano has always had the upside of a superstar and he appears to finally be reaching his potential as he matures. He is still only 26-years-old and if he continues to hit as he has since his swing changes he could be an elite slugger. Along with his power, Sano is also great at getting on base and his batting average on balls in play is actually below his career mark this season, suggesting his numbers could further improve (.314 vs. .341 career).

 

There are several question marks that must also be taken into consideration with Miguel Sano. First and foremost may be his defensive home. Although Sano has shown the ability to handle third base, he is no one’s idea of a gold-glover, and it is unclear how long he can stay at third. Sano’s overall value would of course decrease as a first baseman or designated hitter, but if he continues to hit as he has this year his bat will play anywhere. Sano has also had his share of injuries, only topping 100 games played for the third time this season and never playing more than 116 games in a year. He has had some off the field issues in the past and his work ethic has been brought into question. Again, he has appeared to mature and was touted by the organization for his offseason work coming into this season, so hopefully that trend will continue (plus Minnesota is certain to pick up Cruz’s team option, giving Sano another year under the veteran’s tutelage).

 

It is unknown whether the Twins or Sano are interested in an extension at this point. Sano may want to bet on himself, and his value would surely rise if he puts up a full season similar to the numbers he has put up of late (if he played a full season at his post June 27th rate, he would hit 55 home runs!). On the other hand the Twins may be content with just two more years of a burly, somewhat injury-prone and defensively-limited player. Power hitting DH/1B types are not the hot commodity that they once were and can be had on the free agent market for relatively cheap, as was evident in the team-friendly deal the Twins struck with Cruz.

 

However, if Sano does reach his full potential, he could become one of the best hitters in baseball and that would be nice to have around for the next four or five years. While Sano’s defensive value will likely continue to decline, his offensive chops should age well. As we’ve seen with Cruz, power tends to age well, and although Sano will always be a high-strikeout hitter his ability to take walks should be something that he can maintain. He could also conveniently slide into the DH position in 2021 when Cruz is likely to move on or retire. If the Twins are looking to extend Sano, this offseason may well be their last opportunity.

 

It’s unclear exactly what a Sano extension might look like, but he will definitely require more than Jorge Polanco ($5 million AAV) or Max Kepler ($7 million AAV) received in their extensions last offseason, due to Sano’s proximity to free agency. Sano made $2.65 million this season in his first year of arbitration and he should get a decent raise based on his numbers. Minnesota may also prioritize or consider extending some of the other young talent that is part of the Twins core, including Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario. Additionally, the Twins have plenty of high-upside bats in the farm system that are getting closer to the big leagues, including Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Royce Lewis, and Brent Rooker, so they may not want to lock down too many spots long-term. However, as a mid-market team, extending young talent is probably one of the most effective and efficient ways for Minnesota to spend its money, and as we’ve seen with Polanco and Kepler, it is something the Twins front office is open to.

 

So what should the Twins do? Should they stand pat and ride out the final two years of team control or attempt to extend Sano? What kind of money and years would Sano be looking for and what would the Twins be willing to pay? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

 

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[Vanimal46]

They should stand pat for the final 2 years of control. His value will be much different if he remains a 3B or moves to 1B/DH.

 

He's trending in the right direction, which is crucial for him and the team's success. I am optimistic, but not willing to guarantee he will sustain his body just yet to make the commitment.

[Patrick Wozniak]

...now batting leadoff!

[Thrylos]

Give him a 4/50 extension and call it a day.  Got to extend that window of competitiveness.  Nobody with his power in the Twins' system at this point.   Matter of fact, Sano leads the majors in HR/FB FWIW...

[Platoon]

We also took a road trip to Beloit that year on the bike and saw him during a late regular season game. Hit a line drive off the base of the CF fence, one of the hardest baseballs I ever saw hit, also had another single. Also kicked a garden variety GB, and dropped a pop up just behind third base. I texted my son, and said he can hit with enormous power, but that the kid who played third base on his old high school team would eat him alive with a glove. So far, I think those observations continue to hold true.

[jrod23]

This is our first taste of a maturing Sano.  We've all been accustomed to a low-20's Sano who has seemed to be linked to bad decisions on and off the field.  I'm excited to see an upper 20's Sano, especially after being paired with Cruz for two years.

[Danchat]

 

  On 9/28/2019 at 1:34 AM, Thrylos said:

Give him a 4/50 extension and call it a day.  Got to extend that window of competitiveness.  Nobody with his power in the Twins' system at this point.   Matter of fact, Sano leads the majors in HR/FB FWIW...

I don't think he takes that at this point. If Sano puts together a full season like 2019, he's going to be foregoing a lot of money in free agency.

[HrbieFan]

if Sano continues this pace over the next 2 years, he will command upwards of $25m per. Would 6 years at $115m get it done?

[nicksaviking]

Tough call, if he gets extended it has to be this winter. Next year either he won’t want to or the team won’t want to, but the either way, the cards will all be down for all to see.

 

I don’t think his bat goes backward from here; I think he’s a pretty easy 12 AB/HR player from here out. You can find room for him even if it’s DH in a couple years.

[Kram0173]

Just wait until the Twins fail to sign him and the Red Sox pick him up... sound familiar?

[Squirrel]

  On 9/28/2019 at 5:49 AM, Kram0173 said:

Just wait until the Twins fail to sign him and the Red Sox pick him up... sound familiar?

You sound like a hopeful Boston fan ...

[old nurse]

 

  On 9/28/2019 at 1:34 AM, Thrylos said:

Give him a 4/50 extension and call it a day.  Got to extend that window of competitiveness.  Nobody with his power in the Twins' system at this point.   Matter of fact, Sano leads the majors in HR/FB FWIW...

HR/FB is a little meaningless when you lead the league in K%

[nokomismod]

I would like to see an extension. What would it take? A five year $50 million seems like something he would considerl

[old nurse]

Betting on yourself is something people say the contract offered did not meet expectations. Sano last played a full year how long ago? I would think the Twin's offer would reflect that. Sano would not think that way. Not many players would consider that they might have an injury problem.

[etwink]

If both sides are happy to extend, I’d be good with that. No one has ever doubted the talent; it’s always been a question of whether Sano would unlock it. As for the Ortiz fears; Terry Ryan and Gardy aren’t around anymore. We’re not going to give up on Sano because he won’t hit the other way or advance the runner. If we give up on Sano it will be because he either can’t stay healthy or hits like he did early this year.

[Richard Swerdlick]

I hope the Twins make him a reasonable offer this off season and I hope Sano declines it. I would interpret that to mean that Sano will be betting on himself and have the motivation to stay in shape and to continue to improve. Big benefits then for him and the Twins in 2020.

[Squirrel]

  On 9/28/2019 at 10:51 AM, etwink said:

If both sides are happy to extend, I’d be good with that. No one has ever doubted the talent; it’s always been a question of whether Sano would unlock it. As for the Ortiz fears; Terry Ryan and Gardy aren’t around anymore. We’re not going to give up on Sano because he won’t hit the other way or advance the runner. If we give up on Sano it will be because he either can’t stay healthy or hits like he did early this year.

Gardy wasn’t the manager when Ortiz was here. It was Kelly who had his issues with him. Nonetheless, I don’t think Ortiz’ time in MN is a good comp to Sano anyway.

 

I don’t know what an extension would look like or if he’s earned that yet. If he’s here two more years, I think talk about it next season. Let’s see what he does this offseason and if he can play the whole year next year.

[jorgenswest]

Four and 50 should do it. Power at 1B/DH has been pretty inexpensive the last few years. That trend will continue with the explosion of home runs this year. To really get paid players are going to need to bring something else to the table. It could be positional flexibility or defense or speed or leadership or even a record of good health. What else will Sano offer to get that elite contract?

[jmlease1]

I would try for the extension. I think there's little chance of a 6 year deal, because of where that puts Sano when his FA would come up. He's got a much better chance of getting the gigantic 5-6 year deal at age 30 than he does at age 32.  4 years and $50-60M might get it done. That would get him more on the front end and give himself some protection against injury & position change value loss and still save the Twins some on the back end if he keeps crushing the ball. Because the AAV on his contract if he hits FA at age 28 will start at $20M+

[the_brute_squad]

12-15 million a year will keep him here for another 4 or 5 years as a third baseman. There's no reason he can't develop as a more than adequate defensive player. This wouldn't be the first Twins team to have a young 3rd sacker come up and play less than avg defense (Gaetti, Koskie). They made themselves top tier defensive players and with a little hard work and dedication Sano can do the same. He has a cannon for an arm and shows the ability to charge the ball despite his size. If he moves to 1st base now it's making a move just to make a move.

[DannySD]

He's going to want a lot more money than all of these suggestions. If he keeps playing like he did this year and keeps working hard as a person and a baseball player, he'll get it. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

  On 9/28/2019 at 9:18 AM, old nurse said:

HR/FB is a little meaningless when you lead the league in K%

'Meaningless' is probably a little harsh.

It does have it lose some of its charm, however... 

[Vanimal46]

  On 9/28/2019 at 1:59 PM, DannySD said:

He's going to want a lot more money than all of these suggestions. If he keeps playing like he did this year and keeps working hard as a person and a baseball player, he'll get it.

Agreed. He's made tremendous strides over the last year getting his body in shape. As well as tweaking his swing 3 months ago. Before the team commits to him long term, I'd like to see him keep up the same habits. I wouldn't mind paying a higher price later on if he continues what he's been doing.

[chpettit19]

I think offering him 4/50 gets laughed at and ends the conversation. Maybe he considers 3/50-60, but there's no chance he gives up 2 years of free agency in his prime for 12 a year.

 

He's set to hit free agency before he turns 30 and the Twins will have to pay him 20+ per year to get him to forego that. I would be surprised to see him sign a deal at all, and think the most likely situation is the Twins offer him a deal to be able to say they tried, he rejects it and plays out his deal or gets traded before his last year of arbitration.

[JDubs]

Hey, that's me! I'm the brother who went to that game, and must be noted, did all the driving. I think the Sanó homer was undersold -- that thing is still in orbit somewhere. After the game, we went out to the field beyond the fence to try to find the ball, and it was nowhere. Probably because it's still somewhere in the troposphere.

[Rosterman]

Yes, I would extend him for four seasons this off-season with an option for a 5th season...and then you always have another possible option for a sixth. How much? That's the kicker.

 

I would almost pass on Cron for 2020 and have Sano and Gonzales play first and third. And then I would move Sano to DH once Cruz hangs up his spikes. But I would still play him in the field to keep his glove fresh there. That is the worth of Sano...if he can be a fulltime DH who can also play the field at first AND third (especially in inter-league games). 

 

He is the perfect DH. Should be able to slug 40 homers a season and play there without missing a step. You do have to keep on him for his weight, his workouts, and also constantly review his swing and make him take pitches rather than just swing at those low-outside balls.

 

Next two years in arbitratuon will bring him a minimum of $18m. So $50m and four would be a safe bet for both sides. But after the four, he suddenly starts to enter the $20 million range. If you treat him well, he could bacome Minnesota's David Ortiz, signing a comfortable set contract each year for the rest of his career. 

 

[NY Twins Fan]

I agree 4 years and ~$50-$55M is reasonable. To everyone that thinks this is low ball, need to keep in mind we already have 2 years at ~15-$20M.

 

So in effect we would be buying 2 years at ~$35M, but there is some risk for Twins and increased security for Sano.

 

If his hitting declines some and he can't play 3rd base in a couple years, or has a serious injury, then he won't get $$35M from anyone for his first two free agency years.

 

[Bomba2026]

I'd resign all the future Twins Now before the Playoffs because they will feel wanted and they will want mo money after we win a World Series this year....I think it is the group atmosphere that is helping the Twins be the best!

Edited September 28, 2019 by Bomba2026

[Amonahan]

Like any Twins fan, I love defense, but we have to acknowledge how less important it is now as compared to 15-20 years ago. Sano is Ortiz 2.0, but starting at 3B rather than 1B. He can stay at 3B as long as he can, if his bat keeps up. His bat is irreplacable right now. If his bat stays and he falls to 1B, we can all consider ourselves lucky. Buy out the last two years of arbitration and try to get three more for a total of $50 mil, and see what happens. If it has to go closer to $60 mil, do it, please. 

[jkcarew]

  On 9/28/2019 at 9:18 AM, old nurse said:

HR/FB is a little meaningless when you lead the league in K%

Or...K% is meaningless when you lead the league in HR/PA.

 

But I agree. It’s an opportunity. What would the OPS/wRC+ look like if he could bring the K% down 5%? 10%?