Front Page: Who Has More Long-Term Value, Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton?

[Battle ur tail off]

Buxton if he stays healthy is probably more valuable, IF and it's an if still, he hits. 2 "IFs" to make Buxton's case.

 

He had 80 games one year and about 30 another where he hit the ball well. Besides that, he has been worse than poor at the plate. Was he turning the corner? That's the hope and if he can OPS .800 or higher with the level of defense he has, he's more valuable. 

 

For Sano, I think we might be looking at a top 5 power hitter in MLB here. He has finally gotten himself back to where he started his career where he waits for a pitch he can drive hard and hits it harder and farther than anyone I myself personally have ever seen wearing a Twins uniform. 

 

Either way, like has already been expressed, a year or so ago, we didn't know if either of these guys would even stick at the MLB level. Now we are possibly looking at the 2 players we thought we had and that is 2 of the very top players in all of baseball. 

 

Keep them both here and add what it takes to get a championship. 06-10 you had it and didn't do anything. This time around lets get it right, not cheap out and go for it. 

Hopefully this year is the start of a run of dominate baseball here in MN.

 

Edited September 24, 2019 by Battle ur tail off

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I say we put them on the field next season and find out!

 

It might give us something to talk about...

[Mr. Brooks]

Buxton's ceiling is absolutely higher, however unless his bat improves tremendously it won't play at the corner outfield positions in his later years.

Buxton has a better OPS this year than Eddie Rosario (corner outfielder) has had in any year except 2017, and even that was only 9 points higher.

[Mr. Brooks]

Did you mean that's more valuable that anything we've seen from Buxton so far? Sano has a career OPS+ average of 122 and this season he is at 139.

It seems like half the game is completely missing whenever you post stats that compare Buxton and Sano.

[BD57]

Can you tell me Buck is going to learn to stay healthy, play 130+ games a year, and get his BA up to, say, .275-.280?   IMO, he needs to do those things to have long-term "big time" value; otherwise, he's a valuable piece who's "missing" way too often.

 

If Sano's a 30-ish HR guy year in / year out for the next 5-10 years, he's going to be valuable, even if he winds up being a full time DH.  While he still has holes in his swing & approach, he's definitely made progress this year - I think having Nelson Cruz around has been a godsend for him.

 

Right now, I think "odds are" better on Sano, but only because Buck just keeps getting hurt.

[yarnivek1972]

Did you mean that's more valuable that anything we've seen from Buxton so far? Sano has a career OPS+ average of 122 and this season he is at 139.

And way below par defense. If Buxton put up a 115 OPS+ over 150 games with his typical defense he’d have a bWAR in the 6 or 7 range and be on the short list for MVP.

[BD57]

 

And way below par defense. If Buxton put up a 115 OPS+ over 150 games with his typical defense he’d have a bWAR in the 6 or 7 range and be on the short list for MVP.

 

Thing is, what do we get from Buck's "position on the field' if he's only there for 1/2 of the season, vs. Sano if he's consistently out there for 140 games?

 

Maybe I'm gun-shy, but until I see Buck put a couple of 130+ game seasons together, back to back, I'm going to have a hard time believing I can really "count on him" to contribute.

 

And that's essentially the Question being posed - "Right now, knowing what we presently know .... which one would you put money on having more value?"

 

If both have a run of 10 "healthy" years going forward  - minor bumps & bruises only - then I think we're in for a heck of a ride, and there's a good chance we'll enjoy debating this topic, because it'll be like debating which is your "most favorite flavor of ice cream."

 

Hope that's the case.

[Mr. Brooks]

Thing is, what do we get from Buck's "position on the field' if he's only there for 1/2 of the season, vs. Sano if he's consistently out there for 140 games?

 

Maybe I'm gun-shy, but until I see Buck put a couple of 130+ game seasons together, back to back, I'm going to have a hard time believing I can really "count on him" to contribute.

 

And that's essentially the Question being posed - "Right now, knowing what we presently know .... which one would you put money on having more value?"

 

If both have a run of 10 "healthy" years going forward - minor bumps & bruises only - then I think we're in for a heck of a ride, and there's a good chance we'll enjoy debating this topic, because it'll be like debating which is your "most favorite flavor of ice cream."

 

Hope that's the case.

Sano has never played more than 116 games in a season.

Why does Sano magically get assumed for "consistently playing 140+ games", but Buxton has to actually do it back to back first?

 

As far as durability goes, they're basically a wash at this point.

[twinkiesfan11]

They both come with pedigree, elite upside, injury history and inconsistent track records. Both have flashed game changing potential in two totally different packages. Both have put this team on their back for stretches of a fantastically entertaining 2019 season.

 

The Arguments in favor of Buxton are all pretty obvious and make total sense. I really feel Sano has a good chance of being the more valuable of the two long-term. If his re-dedication to fitness and preparation proves legit he could have some huge (Nelson Cruz-like) offensive seasons ahead of him. It really seems like he’s just scratching the surface this season and there have been times when you can see he’s totally locked in (like the Back breaking Cleveland Grand Slam) where he seems to be able to be able to hit bombs at will. His all bat profile probably ages better than Buxton’s athleticism dependent profile. Sano for me but that is absolutely no slight to Buxton.

Edited September 25, 2019 by twinkiesfan11

[dex8425]

 

Buxton has a better OPS this year than Eddie Rosario (corner outfielder) has had in any year except 2017, and even that was only 9 points higher.

That's a great stat to point out. Some team will want Buxton to play corner OF and OPS .800. But we're comparing Buck and Sano here. Rosie's ops is much lower than Sano's. 800 ops from a centerfielder is fantastic, especially from one as good defensively as Buxton. 800 ops from a corner outfielder is good, not great. Sano has been great this year. 

[DocBauer]

Just going to echo a lot of what has already been said. HEALTHY for the next 5 years or so, I would pick Buxton over Sano in a close call due to speed and defense. And that's with Buxton maintaining what he was showing this season and not improving offensively, which is something a fully expect a healthy Buxton ro do; improve offensively.

 

I think Sano is just starting to hit his stride. I don't know that the Cruz comparisons are out of line at all, though he may not match the pure OB part of such a comparison.

 

Again, this is a very, very close call to me.

 

It would be easy to pick Sano as to which of them WILL be more valuable due to health concerns and just being on the field. But both of them have had injuries over the past couple of years.

 

I just want both of them healthy for 140 games per beginning in 2020 and not argue about which great player is better than the other.

[Mr. Brooks]

That's a great stat to point out. Some team will want Buxton to play corner OF and OPS .800. But we're comparing Buck and Sano here. Rosie's ops is much lower than Sano's. 800 ops from a centerfielder is fantastic, especially from one as good defensively as Buxton. 800 ops from a corner outfielder is good, not great. Sano has been great this year.

But you claimed his bat wouldn't play as a corner outfielder.

I agree it's less valuable there, likely enough for Sano to surpass him, but that wasn't what I was questioning.

His bat still plays at corner outfielder. There are people on this site who think Rosario is among the team MVP candidates.

[BD57]

 

Sano has never played more than 116 games in a season.
Why does Sano magically get assumed for "consistently playing 140+ games", but Buxton has to actually do it back to back first?

As far as durability goes, they're basically a wash at this point.

 

I'll revoke the magic for Sano, if you'd like.

 

Sano's interruptions last year strike me as "not injury related" - my opinion, that's all it is - so I don't particularly hold that against him - whereas the time he's missed this year was not "playing related."

 

Buxton, meanwhile, has missed time this year on more than one occasion, all playing related, until he finally broke down.

 

Sorry - based upon the track record, I think Sano is more likely to be a guy who gives us 140 games a year once he's "established," which, based upon his play this year, I think he's finally done.

 

Buxton has yet to [a] show he can "hit enough" over the course of a year to get past "he's worth it for his glove alone" (and he's got to do more than that to be "really worth it"); and  play a season without missing substantial time during the year because of "on field" injuries.

 

I WANT Buck to do it, because if he does ... whoo boy, will he be a weapon!!!!!  

Edited September 26, 2019 by BD57

[jctwins]

I suppose it is off the topic, but if both players have real market value when the time comes and this ownership or FO determines they can't afford to keep both of them, they are going to miss on an opportunity to prove they are stepping up to the plate when it really matters. 

 

 

[Ncgo4]

My grand daughter was an International Elite gymnast with a ripped body like Buxton. She was, at age 13, in line to compete for the Olympic team. I spoke with her coach, an old time Russian, and he told us that she would never stay healthy. She had already had a run of stains & things. He said that many great athletes with that kind of “no fat” body just could not stay healthy. He was right about our youngster. She remained in a consistent state of recovering from sprains and strains. Ended up with a nice Division 1 college scholarship.

 

This may be Buxton’s situation. I’m not talking about the running into walls those are careless and fixable. I more worried about diving for catches or slides and pulling ribs or shoulders. I hope I’m wrong, but if I were betting Buck or Sano, the next 5 year contract would go to Miguel. No one could mistake him for a low fat body. Plus he’s had a great year, missing 50 games and playing his first few weeks through his own spring training, he’s had a crazy good year. He’s going to end up with about 35 Hr’s in 102, or so games. This was an eye-opening feat and should, along with Rosario, be rewarded with a long term deal this off season!

[Kram0173]

He will wind up in Boston...

[Squirrel]

He will wind up in Boston...

You sound like a hopeful Red Sox fan.