Front Page: Twelve's a Crowd: Handicapping the Playoff Pitching Staff

[Nick Nelson]

If you'd told me two months ago that the Twins would be so brimming with quality bullpen talent by the end of September, they'd be looking at leaving out deserving candidates from the postseason roster... well, I'd have given you a real funny look.

 

But, here we are. Even with deadline centerpiece Sam Dyson fizzling out entirely, the Twins have the second-highest bullpen WAR in baseball since they acquired him. With the relief corps figuring to play a pivotal role in this year's postseason run, let's examine some of the difficult decisions being weighed.In projecting the playoff bullpen, we need to set a few parameters. We'll presume that the Twins carry 12 pitchers, which is generally the most you'll see given the reduced need for starting depth. Even the Brewers, who last year bullpened their way through the playoffs, carried only 12 pitchers.

 

So, we can safely assume that six of those pitchers will be Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, and Sergio Romo. Next, there is a batch of borderline locks: Randy Dobnak, Martin Perez, Devin Smeltzer. The length these guys provide is essential, especially with Minnesota possibly planning on multiple bullpen games in a series. One might quibble with Perez's presence in that second group, but I think his effectiveness against lefties (.592 OPS) solidifies his bid, given the lack of specialist alternatives.

 

That leaves us with, at most, three open spots for the taking. And that's if the Twins elect to carry a shorthanded bench in favor of additional pen flexibility. Here are the candidates, listed from most-to-least viable as I see it:

 

1. Cody Stashak, RHP

 

Stashak has ever-so-quietly put together a dominant showing in his major-league debut, posting a 23-to-1 K/BB ratio through his first 22 innings with an elite swing-and-miss rate. Control and stuff: two traits you absolutely want in your bullpen against imposing lineups filled with sluggers. The only question is how Stashak, a former 13th-round draft pick who opened this season in Double-A, will handle the pressure of such a stage. There's been zero indication to this point that he'll be rattled much.

 

2. Zack Littell, RHP

 

In his second appearance of the season, Littell wore one against the Rays, giving up eight runs over 4 1/3 innings in mop-up duty. Since then, Littell has a 0.94 ERA over 25 appearances. He vacillates between a 94 MPH fastball and 87 MPH cutter in equal measure, and the formula's been very effective for him. Littell has recorded five or six outs in three of his past four appearances, so he's primed to handle a couple innings. That's very handy for the Twins in their situation. You could make a fair case that Littell should be No. 1 on this list, or even in the lock category.

 

3. Brusdar Graterol, RHP

 

The 21-year-old's initial exposure to the majors has had its ups and downs, but the invigorating high points reaffirm his potential impact. Graterol is the kind of weapon you like to have at your disposal in tight contests, bringing triple-digit heat that's tough to square up when he locates it. Obviously there's an added level of risk and uncertainty at play here, but I think the Twins will wisely accept that in tandem with his upside.

 

4. Lewis Thorpe, LHP

 

Now we're getting into the "outside looking in" group. Thorpe is an interesting case, because he offers length the Twins might value in front-to-back bullpen games. But he has a 6.15 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. There have been moments where Thorpe's looked really good, and his competitive moxy would fit right in with the intensity of October, but it's hard to imagine the Twins calling on him for multiple innings in a playoff game. He hasn't been good against lefties so match-ups don't really factor.

 

5. Kyle Gibson, RHP

 

The Twins have given Gibson every chance. His last three appearances cascaded into catastrophe, systematically eroding the notion that he can help in any kind of postseason role. First, Gibson came back from an IL respite and got bashed for six runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings. Then, he made a relief appearance and promptly gave up a costly home run. Most recently, he was an erratic mess against Kansas City, failing to complete two innings. Over his past five appearances, opponents are hitting .413 against Gibson. The physically-hampered righty continues to miss bats even in this diminished state, which is the only solace I'll take in the (likely?) event that the team carries him out of sheer loyalty.

 

6. Fernando Romero, RHP

 

At the beginning of the season, it would've been easy to envision Romero at the head of this conversation. But that was a long time ago, and the 24-year-old has since had a rough go of things. Constantly wrestling with his command, Romero has seen his upper-90s fastball fail to garner the desired results, in both Triple-A and the majors. There's still a glimmer of intrigue in that raw arsenal, but he's been too shaky to merit any trust.

 

7. Ryne Harper, RHP

 

It's a raw deal for Harper. He was a vital bullpen fixture in the first half. He's a great story. I'd love to see him playing a role in the postseason. I just don't think the Twins can justify carving out a spot for him. Harper's heavy reliance on a big slow curveball, supplemented by a sub-mediocre fastball, was solved by big-league hitters after about three months, resulting in a 5.51 ERA and .318 opponents' average since the break. The idea of serving those pitches up against a bloodthirsty Yankees or Astros lineup is... discomforting.

 

8. Trevor Hildenberger, RHP

 

Given his history, Hildenberger might've nudged his way back into the postseason picture -- despite his immense struggles over the past year-plus -- had he managed to string together a few shutdown performances here in September. But that hasn't happened. The righty looks awful. In three appearances since returning to the Twins, he's allowed six runs on six hits and three walks in 2 1/3 innings, with two swinging strikes on 59 pitches. He's not usable.

 

9. Kohl Stewart, RHP

 

Stewart's last three appearances for the Twins have come against likely postseason teams: OAK, NYY, ATL, WAS. Here's how that went: 7 IP, 13 H, 10 ER (12.86 ERA), 6 K, 3 BB, 2 HR. He serves no purpose outside of mopping up meaningless innings and that's just not a guy you need around in a five-game playoff series.

 

10. Jorge Alcala, RHP

 

The fact that he has made one appearance since being called up 10 days ago, as the sixth pitcher in a game that slipped out of hand late, tells you all you need to know about where he stands in this bullpen hierarchy. Alcala is merely an extra emergency arm to have around for September, and it's become clear he was never auditioning for anything more.

 

Based on these rankings and the supposition of a 12-man staff, here's how I see the ALDS bullpen shaking out: Berrios, Odorizzi, Rogers, May, Duffey, Romo, Dobnak, Perez, Smeltzer, Stashak, Littell, Graterol.

 

What do you think? Would you rearrange these rankings? How many pitchers do you foresee them carrying? Have any creative thoughts on strategy and deployment? Sound off in the comments.

 

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[PDX Twin]

This seems about right to me. Tough on Gibson, who has been with the club through all the losing and played a significant role at times this season, but it's hard to see what we get from him in present form.

[Brandon]

I wonder if the Twins take 13 pitchers and make the third game a straight bullpen game see if Dobnak can get 4-5 good innings and go with the pen the rest of the way.  

[ashbury]

I could quibble some, on the rationale getting down to the list of final-add candidates (my own handicapping puts Perez as the last arm added). But when looking at Stashak/Littell/Graterol I concur completely that they belong and the rest do not. I don't even consider Gibson, as I think he's just too depleted.

 

And I concur with 12 arms and therefore 13 bats, as there is not a single pitcher on this "outside looking in" list I want to face to even one batter in games that matter, whereas my final add among the bats has a way or two to beat the other team in the right circumstance (and I don't have a 14th bat who I'd consider bumping the pitching staff down to 11 for one series).

 

The 40-man really is this depleted. It's not a question of leaving off deserving candidates. We're scraping bottom to find 25 who are even worthy.

[South Dakota Tom]

Depends on where you start the discussion.    If you start with "I want Dobnak, Stashak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer in the lineup" it becomes, I don't know, easier.    Add Rogers, May, Duffey, Romo, and Littell, you have 9.  Add Berrios and Odo, you have 11.  Last guy?   I say Brusdar.  (yes, I know this leaves Gibson and Perez off the roster).

 

13 position players are pretty set - 2 catchers, the 6 infielders you mention, the 4 outfielders, and Cruz.  Either Astudillo is off, or Adrianza, and I choose to leave Astudillo off (that one is toughest - I love the contact play).
 

Going back to the first paragraph, though, I think that combination gives us the best chance at flexibility, lots of guys who can pitch more than one inning, and I agree with a separate poster who suggested starting the bullpen game in game two, using Berrios in 1 and 5 (if necessary, or your game 1 starter in the ALCS), bullpen in 2 and 4, and Odo in game 3. 

 

Just weird enough to work.

[mikelink45]

My god - I see Perez name and my heart starts to flutter - a terrible thing for a 74 year old.  NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO is all I have to say for Martin.  

[jorgenswest]

I think Littell is a lock. He has been used against more difficult batters and has been better than the league against those opposing batters.

[jz7233]

Adrianza over Astudillo (fielding), Wade over Schoop (speed), Perez has to be used as a lefty specialist only! Littell, Stashak and Graterol should certainly be on the roster.

[blindeke]

If I see Perez pitching in the playoffs, I'll be putting a bag over my head.

[Nick Nelson]

 

If I see Perez pitching in the playoffs, I'll be putting a bag over my head.

LHB vs Taylor Rogers: .277/.338/.338
LHB vs Devin Smeltzer: .316/.395/.474
LHB vs Martin Perez: .233/.292/.301

That alone makes the case for his usefulness. He's their best weapon against Gregorius or Brantley or Alvarez. But, I'd be mortified if he started a game. 

[jimbo92107]

Completely agree with your list, and thank you for putting the best three left over as 1, 2, 3 in order. 

 

1. Cody Stashak, RHP

Stashak has remarkably good form, a repeatable delivery, effective stuff. With form that good, confidence comes easy. 

 

2. Zack Littell, RHP

Like Stashak, Littell has excellent form, and in his relief role his stuff plays especially well. Littell has some bulldog in him. Future starter.

 

3. Brusdar Graterol, RHP

There is a possibility that Graterol gets destroyed if he loses his nerve. With just a few innings at the mlb level, we just don't know if he can take playoff pressure. On the other hand, he can blow hitters right out of the box, and I have less hesitation to give him the ball (with bases clean) than later options. Grats will give up some hits, but his game can absorb scattered hits with lotsa K's. 

 

4. Lewis Thorpe, LHP

Buy: Thorpe's future as a starter.

Sell: Thorpe's present as a reliever.

Thorpe needs another off-season of coaching to get his mechanics worked out. Right now he's breaking Bert's first rule: Stay back on the rubber. Thorpe launches himself at the plate too soon, which makes everything else go out of whack. The only reason he gets near the strike zone is because he's an athlete. If he gets the mechanics down, he won't need to compensate for his lack of rhythm. 

 

5. Kyle Gibson, RHP

Gibson is below the bottom of this list. I consider him physically unable to perform the duties of major league pitcher. 

 

6. Fernando Romero, RHP

Romero has the same problem Thorpe has: He launches himself too soon off the rubber. Added to that, Romero also sinks down, rather than staying tall. Another off-season training with Wes Johnson may cure that. If so, he's back to being a starter. 

 

7. Ryne Harper, RHP

I actually have Harper as the first alternate behind Graterol. His stuff is legitimately whiffable, even after the league "figured him out." I think he was dealing with arm problems, and he's better now. Problem is, Graterol throws vapor rockets. 

 

8. Trevor Hildenberger, RHP

Would be my second alternate, but he has not yet showed his prior effectiveness. 

 

9. Kohl Stewart, RHP

Stewart may continue to develop gradually, but I no longer consider him a valuable prospect, not with other guys passing him up like a bicycle on the highway. 

 

10. Jorge Alcala, RHP

Alcala is the most raw of all these guys. No way would I trust him in a playoff game. I'd go get Balasovic first. Or some guy from AAA.

 

Actually, most of the promising arms are in AA...Ober, Sands, Durhan. I'd grab those guys before most from the bottom of this list. 

[yarnivek1972]

If Perez makes the postseason roster, it won’t be to provide length. It will be as a loogy.

[David HK]

 

If Perez makes the postseason roster, it won’t be to provide length. It will be as a loogy.

I concur, Dr.

 

Although, I had to suppress a middle-school chuckle comparing him to a loogy... 

 

(Which seems apt at this point).

[nicksaviking]

Houston and New York are about as right-handed as you can get, I don’t think I’d save a LOOGY spot for Perez.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Houston and New York are about as right-handed as you can get, I don’t think I’d save a LOOGY spot for Perez.

Good point. Then you wonder if Rogers will be used to get the final outs, as he usually is.

[ashbury]

Houston and New York are about as right-handed as you can get, I don’t think I’d save a LOOGY spot for Perez.

I know, but then my next choice (before reading this article) for the final spot is Thorpe, and he brings even less to the table. All the righties in the remainder bin are going to serve up meatballs to batters from either side of the plate, I am afraid.

[KirbyDome89]

I wouldn't feel particularly good about anybody on the 1-10 list entering a playoff game. Half of the locks or near locks are hard to feel confident about. 

 

If they're going to carry Graterol and Thorpe then your 12th man as a LOOGY is a wasted roster spot. If they're planning on bullpen games they need somebody who can give them more than 1 out against a LHB. Perez looks awful; even as a LOOGY I don't want to see him.

[insagt1]

one week to go to earn spots. I think I might favor Thorpe over Perez...only because lately Perez can't even pitch 2 or 3 effective innings. I don't think Thorpe could do worse.

If Twins carry 13 bats, it will be interesting to see who is healthy enough to fill out the roster.

[rdehring]

I would not be surprised if they go with 13 pitchers, especially if Adrianza is not 100% by next week.

 

There is a chance that Thorpe could be the key to winning one of those bullpen games.  Yes, he needs more experience and work to become the solid starter I see him becomming. 

 

But we have seen a very good Thorpe several times over the past couple months.  With the likelihood that the team will be using only two traditional starters, I see Thorpe potentially playing a key role in cobbling those other two games together.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think your top 3 are the correct picks. I could see them taking Thorpe and going with 12 position players... That's a 3 man bench as it is. 

[Platoon]

Playoff games are tighter, you may need a lefty specialist more. And you need length with the shortage of not only starters but starters who can drag you into the 6th. Add in the fact that both the opponents will be pretty offensively laden, and you need both arms and flexibility. Perez the LOOGY may work in that case, as could Thorpe. I would think twice about Brusdar. He was impressive in Mpls. against KC. But we aren't going to Kansas Dorothy. (or MO) As for Willians, a lot of that depends on Garvers health. The Turtle isn't hitting well right now, but Andrainza hasn't payed in quite awhile either.

[Only Here in Negative]

13 pitchers. Littel is a lock. Carry Stashak, Thorpe, and Graterol. 12 position players means the starting 9 plus Castro, Cave, and Schoop. I'm basing this on Adrianza not being back and in game shape for the ALDS. All reports show he's not close to coming back and obliques are tough. I'd rather carry that 13th pitcher than Astudillo or a pinch runner who can steal. It just seems like the Twins may need it given the issues with starting pitching.

[Only Here in Negative]

Will people be upset if the 25th spot goes to Gibson? I don't think its the best use of the roster but perhaps there are other team morale/loyalty reasons that Rocco and co. would bring him along?

 

I think I would be fearful but not upset at the decision.

[JW24]

 

I wonder if the Twins take 13 pitchers and make the third game a straight bullpen game see if Dobnak can get 4-5 good innings and go with the pen the rest of the way.  

I don't think the Twins need a 13th pitcher to have a solid bullpen game. Nick's point about the Brewers only carrying 12 pitchers last year is a good one; the Twins will try to win games this post-season the same way the Brewers did in 2018.

 

Also, in regards to the original article, I think Littell has to be a lock on the post season roster. Stashak should be a lock as well. Graterol would be my final inclusion as well, leaving Gibson off the roster. I would be willing to swap Thorpe for Perez in Nick's original list.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

What are the rules about selecting 25 players for the playoffs? Must the same 25 also be on the World Series roster? Also, what allows a team to drop one player and add another? Who determines whether a player is truly injured, so as to be substituted for?

[Alex Schieferdecker]

I think the only real challenge for the Twins is to pick between Perez and Thorpe. I hope to see both get a start in this final set of games, and that may clarify the situation. Perez's success against lefties is notable, but you generally are going to want length from him, not usage as a LOOGY.

[Dave Overlund]

I think that if the Twins want to use Perez as a reliever, they should have sprinkled him in here in that role over the last couple weeks. Why keep giving him (poor) starts all the way until the ALDS?

[Seth Stohs]

Littell and Dobnak are givens. I think that Perez is a given. Not as sure about Smeltzer. Stashak should be a given. I don't think Graterol is a given at all at this point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Will people be upset if the 25th spot goes to Gibson? I don't think its the best use of the roster but perhaps there are other team morale/loyalty reasons that Rocco and co. would bring him along?

 

I think I would be fearful but not upset at the decision.

Anyone can be on the bench. So Gibson could still be with the team, even if he's not on the roster. 

[Nick Nelson]

A lotta steam in favor of Thorpe in these comments. I gotta say -- I don't get it.

 

Thorpe in 4 September appearances: 8.35 ERA with 16 hits and 7 BB in 12 IP. Opponents hitting .327/.404/.531.

 

Granted, Perez has also been bad in September, but not quite as bad, and he has the LHB advantage, more experience, etc. I get that people are really down on Perez but I'm not sure we're recognizing how poorly Thorpe's pitched since his first handful of outings.