Fall 2019 Twins Prosepect Top 50

[Twins2020]

I'm interested to get eveyone's opinion on the next "Twins Prospect List" that will eventually come out.  Although there's a lot of improvement still required, I don't see how Dakota Chalmers doesn't get on the list. Look at his last few starts (granted it's a small sample size), the walk-rate is beginning to come down. His "stuff" is definitely MLB quality, in addition to the mid-90's velo. His last start in the AZ Fall League he was sitting 96-97mph...hit 100 with one FB...1 walk over 3.1 innings..4k's.  Only really pitched towards the end of the season (TJ rehab)…..but there seems to be a tremendous amount of upside.  Question: Does he make the Twins top 50 Prospect List?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wont' speak for the guys putting the lists together.. but in my opionion. Top 50. Yes. Top 20. No, and that's even if he continues to pitch well in the AFL. 

 

He's not exactly young compared to his league (nor old, about league average), which really is a big deal when looking at this. If he was doing this at 20 vs. 22, that makes a huge difference. Obviously, TJS this in particular, but that's where he is right now.

 

He definitely had a good season between two levels, which is nice. The K rate is dead sexy for a starter as his hit hit per 9 rates. Despite the walk rate dropping, that was a number of around 6 per 9. That won't fly in the majors. There's obviously time to correct that, but if I were to rocket him up on my personal list, I'd want to see the walk rate cut in half with no change in the K rate. I'd expect the hit rate to come up a bit with more contact, but hopefully not that much. 

 

I would simply say that if he walk rate stays low in the AFL and he starts in A+ or AA next year and keeps it low without negatively impacting the other rate stats, then he'd easily be a top 20 guy... but the big question mark right now is that walk rate. MLB hitters will chew that up. 

[DocBauer]

After TJ, guys tend to throw as hard or harder than before. I've heard arguments as to what comes next, be it overall control or "feel" for the breaking stuff.

 

We have to remember how deep the overall organization is when talking about any list, even a top 50. But his strong last few games at Ft Myers and a good AFL, I could definitely see him in the top 50.

 

But he's one of those prospects that could start 2020 near the bottom of that list and be top 20-30 by the end of the year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

After TJ, guys tend to throw as hard or harder than before. I've heard arguments as to what comes next, be it overall control or "feel" for the breaking stuff.

We have to remember how deep the overall organization is when talking about any list, even a top 50. But his strong last few games at Ft Myers and a good AFL, I could definitely see him in the top 50.

But he's one of those prospects that could start 2020 near the bottom of that list and be top 20-30 by the end of the year.

 

Nope. They throw harder than right before it was figured out they had an injury, but not necessarily harder than before the injury. I don't have the study handy, but it's out there. 

 

I think Chalmers sits around 30-40th.....going into the year, but moves into the top 20 during the year.

[ashbury]

Concur with diehard about the walks. His pitching coach in his prior organization spoke of him needing to simplify his mechanics, which is a long term project and would appear to still be a work in progress. A string of a few good games isn't going to move the needle sharply, in prospect rankings, and the Florida State League has a reputation for being a pitcher's league (compared say to the high-A California League), so I would be cautious about raising expectations too high. Still, he's what we got for Fernando Rodney, and so the Twins' scouts clearly saw something they liked - he was apparently on their radar on draft day back in 2015, too. One to watch, and probably one of the 50 most important prospects in the system - I haven't constructed a list to say whether there are 25 other pitchers better.

[nicksaviking]

I love the prospect lists, but I don't think they are terribly reliable for starters-turned-relievers. Most of the Twins MLB pen is made up of these mildly considered pitchers. When a position player like Brian Dozier sneaks up on everyone the word 'diamond in the rough' gets tossed about, but for the bullpen, that's just SOP. 

[jkcarew]

Concur with about every post here. The velo will get him on lists, I assume. But, bottom line, by next spring he will have been a professional for 5 years, and really only have injuries and a track record of severe command issues to show for it. It he can figure out where the ball is going, he'll be on a relatively fast track given his age. The encouraging part is...he doesn't find himself in the AFL by accident. He's on the radar. Wish him the best.

[Ben Noble]

From what I understand, he's missed time to both injury and working through some personal stuff, but has all the talent in the world and is supposed to be a good kid. If he can put in a full season free of injuries and distractions, he has the potential to rocket up the rankings.

 

Top 50? Definitely. And I think he has the potential to bump up against the top 10 by the end of next year if things break right. But even if they don't, Chalmers is exactly the type of flier I want my team picking up for a middling reliever on an expiring contract.