Front Page: Randy Dobnak Should Be the Twins Game 2 Starter

[ashbury]

Mary of course cannot help it, she laughs at the funeral. 

As did we.

[Old Twins Cap]

I don't think we need to over-analyze this.

 

Gibson ain't got it and Perez' early season success didn't translate. 

 

Pineda ain't an option.

 

Got two decent starters.

 

MLB, using stats/analystics, are proving that a bullpen game is a spanner, something the other team can't prepare for, predict, or even prefer.

 

Given the Yanks RH predilection, Dobnak's lack of surrendered dingers, his overall influsterable demeanor -- as in -- "Hey, I'm not supposed to be here right now, but, what the hell, as long as I am, here, hit this you big leaguing wastrel."

 

Dobnak or bust.

 

And keep Graterol, Thorpe, Stashak and Smeltzer at the ready, because, playing the Yankees and throwing the guys they know how to kill, hasn't been great over the last decade plus.

[yarnivek1972]

You say that there wasn't anybody down in Rochester saying "Try Me" instead of Perez. I assume you mean... they weren't producing decently enough to earn the right to be tried and I get that. I disagree with Dobnak... His numbers were quite strong but I get what you are saying.

 

However... I look at it from the completely opposite direction.

 

I'm not looking at Rochester for someone to earn it. I'm saying it was the production from Perez saying "We should try" somebody else.

 

Perez wasn't earning it and Perez had to be addressed somehow, someway because the offense was going to bring this team to the playoffs.

The FO saw something they didn’t like from Dobnak. He wasn’t moved up to AAA until about Memorial Day and after just 4 appearances in AAA was sent back down until a week before the trade deadline. After 3 good starts in AAA, he came up to the MLB level.

 

I suppose only Falvine knows why Dobnak was sent down to AA in mid June. Maybe if he stays up, he gets promoted sooner. But I don’t see who else they could have tried that they didn’t. Should they have traded for a starter? I felt pretty strongly that they should have. But they didn’t.

[Riverbrian]

 

The FO saw something they didn’t like from Dobnak. He wasn’t moved up to AAA until about Memorial Day and after just 4 appearances in AAA was sent back down until a week before the trade deadline. After 3 good starts in AAA, he came up to the MLB level.

I suppose only Falvine knows why Dobnak was sent down to AA in mid June. Maybe if he stays up, he gets promoted sooner. But I don’t see who else they could have tried that they didn’t. Should they have traded for a starter? I felt pretty strongly that they should have. But they didn’t.

 

The front office obviously had opinions that led to how things transpired. I think they liked Martin Perez's stuff and I'm sure they liked what Perez was doing in April and May and were working like mad to get him back to where he was then. 

 

I won't pretend to know who they should have tried. But, the front office needs to find someone to try. That is their job. Nobody gets through the season with just 5 starters... nobody. 

 

I made the same argument last year with Logan Morrison playing every day and I make the same argument this year with Martin Perez.

 

Martin Perez is not producing at an acceptable level... Logan Morrison wasn't producing at an acceptable level. They are both producing very low bars to clear. Don't let sub par play stop you from seeing if someone can clear that very low bar. I don't care if the player is a top ranked prospect, unranked prospect or a AAAA Waiver claim. You have to go to the next man up. Because if anyone can clear that very low bar. You have improved your baseball team even if it is incremental. 

 

I don't blame the front office for not requiring a starter at the deadline. The prices must have been too high and they have a long term plan in place to consider...

 

However, the very second that they didn't overpay to acquire a starter.

 

They were committed to having enough to get the job done in house. This has been a playoff team since April. 

 

5 starters with Perez on a 11 start bad streak at the deadline was not going to be enough... Once a starter wasn't acquired, this is when they got to find whoever the in-house option is... instead of waiting for the wheels to come off on the eve of the playoffs to take a guess on Dobnak. 

 

But, I'll say again... I am over the moon happy with the front office. We've made significant strides forward and I'm just asking them to take the same approach with the pitching staff as they are with the offense this year.

 

The same approach that allowed Arraez to continue his good play and get a real chance to beat out an 8 million dollar free agent in Schoop who really isn't performing that badly. 

 

Dobnak wasn't given a chance to be better than Perez... Now Perez is our 3rd starter and we are sitting here saying we'd rather use Dobnak in game two.

 

I know I don't want Perez, we have enough information to make that call... Meanwhile, the club has gone out of its way to tell me through usage that it doesn't totally trust Dobnak. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ashbury]

I know I don't want Perez, we have enough information to make that call... Meanwhile, the club has gone out of its way to tell me through usage that it doesn't totally trust Dobnak. 

I don't want Perez either, but when I combed through our 40-man, he wound up as the 12th man I added to my playoff pitching staff anyway, for severe lack of competent alternatives. The front office tried 30 pitchers over the course of the season, so I don't think some diamond was left in the minor league sand, untried

[insagt1]

 

The FO saw something they didn’t like from Dobnak. He wasn’t moved up to AAA until about Memorial Day and after just 4 appearances in AAA was sent back down until a week before the trade deadline. After 3 good starts in AAA, he came up to the MLB level.

I suppose only Falvine knows why Dobnak was sent down to AA in mid June. Maybe if he stays up, he gets promoted sooner. But I don’t see who else they could have tried that they didn’t. Should they have traded for a starter? I felt pretty strongly that they should have. But they didn’t.

I sawa virtually every Red Wing game. We too were surprised they would send Dobnak down after a great outing...but apparently they wanted to give the starters ahead of him the chance to make their case....guys like Chase DeJong...who was so bad even the batdog covered his eyes. Rochesters overall pitching staff was so horrible this year, everyone seemed to be auditioning. As soon as someone put together a couple decent outings....up they went. Twins now have the best we had...and also a few of the worst too (Hildenberger, Romero)

 

Dobnak is a great story. I hope they use him and he is successful. For the Twins to beat NY, they will have to win a football-like game. Twins success against NY is like the Buffalo Bills chances against the Patriots. Perhaps one day though........

[Riverbrian]

I don't want Perez either, but when I combed through our 40-man, he wound up as the 12th man I added to my playoff pitching staff anyway, for severe lack of competent alternatives. The front office tried 30 pitchers over the course of the season, so I don't think some diamond was left in the minor league sand, untried

You may be right.

 

However... the only thing that we can agree on is that Perez isn’t good enough. We got that data.

 

Now we got people who want to reach into the Dobnak raffle drum as an alternative to Perez based on either his 20 innings or lack of faith in Perez and Gibson.

 

And if you think 20 innings is sufficient to count him among the 30 pitchers they tried. Then Dobnak should be our number one starter with his under 2.00 ERA. He won!!!

[tbhysgb]

No offense to Gibson. The guy is gutsy, and not a quitter. But he needs to focus on his health. The team needs to.

 

Perez......I got nothing. I have zero faith this guy can be marginally effective against a real playoff team. There is zero margin for error when dealing with a team like the Yankees in the postseason.

 

Give me the unknown in this case, because that’s how the great baseball tales truly start.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Perez should be fine as a loogy... That's about the only role I'd want him in though. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

By having Jose Berrios go game one, and Jake Odorizzi go in game three, the Twins can focus games two and four (if necessary) around getting all 27 outs from the bullpen.

 

 

So, this brings up the still lingering question: Why is Randy Dobnak the guy I think the Twins should turn to in game two of the ALDS, as opposed to guys like Kyle Gibson, Martin Perez, Lewis Thorpe or Devin Smeltzer? The answer is simply this, I believe he has the best chance to give the Twins three or four effective innings before Rocco needs to turn the chains loose on the rest of the bullpen.

 

Dobnak for 3 or 4 innings to kick off a bullpen game may not be all that different from an Odorizzi start. Odo averages 5.1 innings per start this season. (Not a knock on Odo, as that's the league average for SP now too.)

 

I get that groundballer Dobnak sounds like a better fit for Yankee Stadium than flyballer Odorizzi, but at a single game level, things really aren't that predictable. Odo pitched a gem in Yankee Stadium for a win back in April (admittedly without Judge), and then got roughed up at Target Field vs the Yankees in July (with Judge back but with Sanchez out). I don't know if we want to get too cute with our planning based on these factors.

 

The prospect of Dobnak/Perez going back-to-back in games 3 and 4 and taxing the pen is perhaps something to avoid, but then again -- isn't that why you have a 12 man staff? And those two games are buffered from the rest of the series by scheduled off days (weather permitting*).

 

* A weather postponement in game 3 or 4 could erase the off day after game 4. And actually, such a postponement would allow the game 1 starter to throw game 4 on normal rest, as well as the game 2 starter throwing in game 5 on normal rest. Perhaps not likely, but another benefit of throwing your best SPs first.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, the Yankees are lining up their rotation as follows:

 

1. Paxton

2. Severino

3. Tanaka

4. opener (Green) / Happ

 

It was long suspected that Severino would be limited as a starter, but he's thrown 67 and 80 pitches his his two starts so far, covering 4 and 5 innings respectively, with one start remaining. He may be deployed as something close to a traditional starter yet.

 

Of course, it would be ideal to jump on him like we did in the 2017 wild card game and render his pitch count moot.

[laloesch]

 

No offense to Gibson. The guy is gutsy, and not a quitter. But he needs to focus on his health. The team needs to.

Perez......I got nothing. I have zero faith this guy can be marginally effective against a real playoff team. There is zero margin for error when dealing with a team like the Yankees in the postseason.

Give me the unknown in this case, because that’s how the great baseball tales truly start.

 

I gotta be honest, i think the Twins are crazy if they start Perez in a playoff game against the Yankees or Astros. He will get destroyed in a heartbeat.

Edited September 24, 2019 by laloesch

[laloesch]

 

I agree with Riverbrian. The question really isn’t “should Randy Dobnak start in the playoffs?” It’s “do we trust Gibson or Perez enough to start in the playoffs?” I think that we all know the answer to that question is a resounding “NO WAY!!!” So, Rocco has two choices: 1) go with seniority and give one of the two boys a chance, with a short leash, or 2) go in a different direction with The Dobber or Smeltzer.

How Rocco answers that question will tell us how committed he is to stats and new methods.

 

I disagree. I think it should be a resounding "HELL YEAH" in favor of Dobnak starting over Gibson and Perez. I've seen too many BAD starts from Gibson and Perez since the all-star break to think otherwise. If it was up to me i'd be willing to make that gamble.

[jimbo92107]

If the situation were a bit more normal (no colitis for Gibson, no suspension for Pineda), then there would be no Perez vs. Dobnak debate. Unfortunately, here we are, with just two good starters, headed into a playoff series against the Yankee lumber company. 

 

Now, Riverbrian tossed out as a joke that with Dobnak's 2.0 ERA, all of 20 innings, maybe he should start Game 1 vs the Yankees. If we look at HOW Dobnak got his very low ERA, that idea doesn't look quite so silly. Randy Dobnak is never going to pitch pretty, like Cole Hammels. Dobnak looks like he sneaked onto the field straight from a pre-game tailgate party, stole a uniform, then talked his way onto the mound. The only thing missing is a mustard stain on his chin. 

 

But then when you watch Dobnak pitch... Compact delivery. Good mechanics. Consistent release point. On balance. Good rhythm. Attacks the strike zone. Hard to read his pitches. Bulldog tenacity. No apparent fear. Good movement. Avoids the middle. Good hop on the heater. I have a feeling that this guy is just plain a major league pitcher. He belongs here, at the top level of competition. Randy Dobnak could be the All American mutant mutt that Bill Murray hails in Stripes. He don't look like much, but the man gets it done. 

 

Around this time a year from now, I don't think people will be wondering if Dobnak can pitch in a playoff game. I bet a million dollars of Pohlad money that he'll be just fine out there against the Yankees. Go get 'em, Randy!