Front Page: Randy Dobnak Should Be the Twins Game 2 Starter

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Dobnak is truly an amazing story. Few players from his draft class of 2017 have arrived in the majors. Keston Hiura is the only one that stands out in my mind as making a better first major league impression than Dobnak. Dobnak wasn’t even drafted. I am not sure if anyone in his college has ever played in the minors. If he adds playoff success somebody needs to write a book and make a movie.

It is a cool story so far, although comparing him to the 2017 draft class isn't quite perfect -- a guy like Mackenzie Gore could very well be pitching well in MLB now if his team was better and/or his future value wasn't so high. Nate Pearson? Maybe Jo Adell too? Not many, but by comparison, Dobnak has the "benefit" of his team doing well right now and not really caring about his future ceiling/control.

 

Still, that's a relatively minor factor. Very, very cool what Dobnak has been able to accomplish so far. 

Edited September 23, 2019 by spycake

[woolywoolhouse]

My one suggestion to Dobnak: change the glasses to black; add white tape to the center; ask the NY (or Houston) media to call you "Randy Hanson." And then throw the first pitch of the game behind the back of the leadoff hitter. 

[davidc3915]

While Romo has been very good in a traditional bullpen role for the Twins, I can't help but remember he was Tampa's original "Opener."  And who has more playoff experience than he?

[Dantes929]

 

  

 

The only thing we know is that Perez isn't getting it done and it's the eve of the playoffs and we know that Dobnak and Smeltzer have been better but we don't have enough information to feel secure about them. 

  

 

 

 

So here we are... We have Odorizzi and Berrios. Will the Twins just throw Perez out of habit or in support of the data. Or are they going to bullpen this thing outside of Berrios and Odorizze due to lack of other options? 

 

I think they are going to bullpen... I believe that they have left themselves no choice. It's quite possible that they would have ended up with no other choice in the end but it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that someone in the rotation got hurt (Gibson) suspended (Pineda) and is pitching below MLB Quality (Perez). This stuff happens all the time.

 

I'm ok with bullpen games, I'm not afraid of bull-penning games in the playoffs. I watched the Brewers do it successfully last year.

  

The two pitchers I would feel most secure with are Verlander and Kershaw.   Combined they are 1-6 in World Series games with a 5.5 ERA.    Nick Blackburn gave up 1 run in game 163 and 1 run in the playoffs against the Yankees.    Of course it is all SSS and you want the best pitcher out there.    I'm sure we all thought Viola, Morris and Tapani would throw well but they were all often one pitch away from disaster.     Comes down to who do you think has the best chance to throw a quality game and given that Gibson hasn't done it once since August 3rd and Perez's success rate has been well under 50% and Dobnak has been great his last two starts, at this point anyway it is a no brainer.   We really probably shouldn't even call it a bullpen game.  Dobnak has gone 5 innings or more both times.    He should simply be our starter.    The tone of your post later was that the Twins were somewhat negligent in not preparing better for this.    That everyone has injuries and no one should be surprised by it.   That;s true but can you really prepare for it?    If Viola goes down in 1987 who steps up?   If Morris and Tapani go down in 91 what was plan B?     In some cases for various reasons  plan B can be as good or better than plan A but that is not the norm.   I can easily imagine Berrios, Odorizzi and Dobnak throwing well enough to give us a chance.    Unless they blow up in their next starts I feel about as secure in that as I can be.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

Worth remembering that Dobnak only has two "real starts" in MLB so far. His first 6 games were all long relief / mop-up / opener appearances.

 

It's encouraging that he did well overall in his "real start" vs. Cleveland, after they had seen them twice already, although 8 baserunners in 5 innings to an average-ish offense is a little risky. 5 of the first 8 batters reached in that game, before Dobnak was bailed out by a DP ball off the bat of Ryan Flaherty. Dobnak is supposed to be a bit of groundball artist, but will he face a Ryan Flaherty in the postseason to allow him to escape a rocky start? His other start vs CLE (as an opener), the first 4 batters of the 2nd inning reached base, and Dobnak was able to escape thanks to a baserunning error, then retiring the 8 and 9 hitters -- a backup catcher and Yu Chang, two more types of batters he may not see in the postseason.

 

The start vs KC had more strikeouts, but also 7 baserunners in 5.1 innings, versus the second-worst offense in the AL. 4 walks/HBP, 2 of the leadoff variety to their 8 and 9 hitters. HOU/NYY may not be as forgiving.

 

I mean, it's still amazing that he's doing this in MLB right now, given his backstory -- but I think I would have liked to see him tested by better offenses before building much of a postseason strategy around him. (Next and last start, probably against Detroit, unfortunately.) Not that Smeltzer's long relief stint vs the Yankees makes him a better option, though.

 

I guess opener of a bullpen game, with a short leash, may not be too bad.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The two pitchers I would feel most secure with are Verlander and Kershaw.   Combined they are 1-6 in World Series games with a 5.5 ERA.

Of course, you need to get to the World Series in order to accumulate World Series stats. And Verlander is 7-0 with a 2.38 ERA in the ALDS, and 6-3 with a 2.95 ERA in the ALCS. Kershaw's been iffier, but his teams are 8-3 in his 11 NLDS starts too. I wouldn't say their World Series stats in isolation have much meaning in this conversation, as the Twins try to set their ALDS rotation.

[by jiminy]

Wow, that was a very compelling argument! Well done. The combination of spacing out the bullpen games, and starting a right-handed, ground-ball pitcher in Yankee stadium, does indeed seem like a sensible approach. I can't think of a better option.

[by jiminy]

The only way Perez would have a prayer against the Yankees would be if he surprised them with a completely different pitch selection than in his past few months. That would be a creative strategy: throw him out there for three bad months with a terrible mix of pitches and pitch locations, then switch it up in the playoffs. 

 

Maybe those first 7 effective starts were an experiment that worked so well that when they got a big lead, they put the strategy under wraps to save till October. 

 

Hmm. If the options are believing that or starting Dobnak, I'm taking Dobnak.

[Mike Sixel]

Mike Sixel

12:10 Would you put either Gibson or Perez on the Twins post season roster?

AvatarJay Jaffe

12:13 I think a lot of it depends upon matchups. I'd consider Perez, who even during his second-half slide has still been effective against lefties. I wouldn't expect him to go five innings but there may be a relief role or a short-starter (opener, even) situation that makes sense. As for Gibson, it sounds like his illness has cost him so much strength and rendered him ineffective.

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-9-23-19-6087.html

Edited September 23, 2019 by Mike Sixel

[jimbo92107]

Andrew's original premise focused on the plus side of using Dobnak to start ALDS game 2. To that I must add that "all hands on deck" is understating the situation. For the Twins, all hands are not available anymore. Gibson should not touch a baseball until his weight is back over 150 pounds, and one sandwich ain't gonna do it. Pitching Perez is like playing Russian roulette, only the revolver has not just one bullet in it, but three. Low-leverage relief or mop up duty for Perez. 

 

That leaves a fairly talented group of rookies, unless you want to see how many innings Duffey can pitch. Actually, he and Littell could probably start a game and go four or five innings of reasonable ball....

 

Point is, there isn't much choice now. Twins will need to patch together a bullpen game, then hope the bats come alive for about ten runs. Yes, the kids aren't quite ready. Yes, they'll be facing Houston or the Yankees. Yes, they could choke under all that pressure. That's your 2019 Twins, folks. Next season these guys will be a lot more stable emotionally, and have better technique. Next season we might see Graterol starting, and maybe another couple guys from this group. Next season we might get Pineda back. But right now, Baldi and the boys have to choreograph some serious sleight of hand with newborn magicians. 

 

It should surprise nobody that this probably won't work. Certainly not against hot-hitting Houston posting Justin Verlander, Garrett Cole and Zack Greinke. The Lords of Probability are tittering in our general direction. Still, somebody has to go out there. Yo Dobnak, you available? As a final request, we grant thee absolution from any environmental disasters resulting from your brave attempt. Go out there and have fun, kid!

Edited September 23, 2019 by jimbo92107

[Dantes929]

 

Of course, you need to get to the World Series in order to accumulate World Series stats. And Verlander is 7-0 with a 2.38 ERA in the ALDS, and 6-3 with a 2.95 ERA in the ALCS. Kershaw's been iffier, but his teams are 8-3 in his 11 NLDS starts too. I wouldn't say their World Series stats in isolation have much meaning in this conversation, as the Twins try to set their ALDS rotation.

I know I was cherry picking but I did lead with Verlander and Kershaw are the two I would feel most secure about and then just pointed out that they are fallible as well.   Kind of trying to illustrate that the quality decreases from that point so the idea of being comfortable with a pitcher in the playoffs is a bit mercurial.    I have faith that Berrios and Odorizzi as well as much of the bullpen are capable of pitching well.   Comfortable that they WILL pitch well is another story.   Thats what makes the playoffs fun.   We all think we were comfortable with Morris and Viola in hindsight.  The reality is there were a lot of tense moments.  

Worth remembering that Dobnak only has two "real starts" in MLB so far. His first 6 games were all long relief / mop-up / opener appearances.

 

It's encouraging that he did well overall in his "real start" vs. Cleveland, after they had seen them twice already, although 8 baserunners in 5 innings to an average-ish offense is a little risky. 5 of the first 8 batters reached in that game, before Dobnak was bailed out by a DP ball off the bat of Ryan Flaherty. Dobnak is supposed to be a bit of groundball artist, but will he face a Ryan Flaherty in the postseason to allow him to escape a rocky start? His other start vs CLE (as an opener), the first 4 batters of the 2nd inning reached base, and Dobnak was able to escape thanks to a baserunning error, then retiring the 8 and 9 hitters -- a backup catcher and Yu Chang, two more types of batters he may not see in the postseason.

 

The start vs KC had more strikeouts, but also 7 baserunners in 5.1 innings, versus the second-worst offense in the AL. 4 walks/HBP, 2 of the leadoff variety to their 8 and 9 hitters. HOU/NYY may not be as forgiving.

 

I mean, it's still amazing that he's doing this in MLB right now, given his backstory -- but I think I would have liked to see him tested by better offenses before building much of a postseason strategy around him. (Next and last start, probably against Detroit, unfortunately.) Not that Smeltzer's long relief stint vs the Yankees makes him a better option, though.

 

I guess opener of a bullpen game, with a short leash, may not be too bad.

I mentioned in another post that Dobnak appears to hit too much of the plate too many times but I'm not expecting perfection.    I like how he battles.  Same with Odorizzi.    I expect the Yankees to score runs.   Its what they do.    Look at their rotation though and there is not a whole lot to suggest that we wouldn't score runs also.    We have a winning record against Houston this year but they are the team I feel our odds are quite a bit lower against.    Odds aren't reality though.    Anything can happen.  Maybe Cleveland plays Houston and beats them.   We're not going to be favored no matter what but if we are in the playoffs we have a chance.

[VATwinsFan]

Thorpe may not have the best "stuff", but he does appear to have the attitude to succeed.

[Tomj14]

Can some one please explain if they think Thorpe should start or even be on the playoff rosterwhat are the expectations from him? He has pitched in 10 games in the majors and only once didn't give up a run.

For me it would be hoping to get though 3 innings only giving up two runs.

I like Thorpe and think he has a bright future, but the biggest game of his life he walked 4 and gave up 7 hits in 3 2/3 against Cleveland. Dobnak and Smetlzer have both been better at this point.

Sadly the front office left the team short of quality starters pitchers but not going out and getting somebody else.

 

[Riverbrian]

 

The two pitchers I would feel most secure with are Verlander and Kershaw.   Combined they are 1-6 in World Series games with a 5.5 ERA.    Nick Blackburn gave up 1 run in game 163 and 1 run in the playoffs against the Yankees.    Of course it is all SSS and you want the best pitcher out there.    I'm sure we all thought Viola, Morris and Tapani would throw well but they were all often one pitch away from disaster.     Comes down to who do you think has the best chance to throw a quality game and given that Gibson hasn't done it once since August 3rd and Perez's success rate has been well under 50% and Dobnak has been great his last two starts, at this point anyway it is a no brainer.   We really probably shouldn't even call it a bullpen game.  Dobnak has gone 5 innings or more both times.    He should simply be our starter.    The tone of your post later was that the Twins were somewhat negligent in not preparing better for this.    That everyone has injuries and no one should be surprised by it.   That;s true but can you really prepare for it?    If Viola goes down in 1987 who steps up?   If Morris and Tapani go down in 91 what was plan B?     In some cases for various reasons  plan B can be as good or better than plan A but that is not the norm.   I can easily imagine Berrios, Odorizzi and Dobnak throwing well enough to give us a chance.    Unless they blow up in their next starts I feel about as secure in that as I can be.  

 

I agree with everything you say with the exception of the highlighted part. 

 

I've stated on multiple occasions that just because you have Kershaw or Chris Sale... it doesn't mean the other team is just going to lay down and die. They increase your odds but it doesn't mean that the dice doesn't come up snake eyes. 

 

Once the playoff starts it's small sample size on steroids... It is quite possible that Mookie Betts under performs while Steve Pearce wins you a world series title. A bloop that falls in or a rocket that is snagged or a blown call by the umpire can influence the result of the game and the star status of the player will have nothing to do with it. 

 

The part I disagree with is: Yes you can prepare for it. Not only can you prepare for it... You have to prepare for it.

 

No, you can't prepare for the Kershaw 5 plus ERA but you can prepare for who gets a roster spot from the fringes and we have a lot of fringe on the mound. You can prepare for who increases your odds. You can prepare for the simple question... who is the better pitcher or player when trying to set a playoff roster. 

 

And yes, you can prepare for injuries and suspensions because injuries and suspensions consistently happen and not prepping for them is not taking note that they consistently happen. 

 

Right now, the front office is looking over the 40 man roster and deciding who gets on the 25 man roster spot for the playoffs.

 

Odorizzi, Berrios, Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May and Littell should be givens providing they stay healthy this final week. They need at least 4 more arms... maybe 5. 

 

Who gets those 4 spots and who doesn't? 

Gibson? 

Perez?

Smeltzer?

Dobnak?

Thorpe?

Graterol?

Stashak? 

 

It's playoff time and the who gets those 4 spots question is critical. Wouldn't it be beneficial information to have more data than 20 MLB innings before throwing Dobnak to the playoff wolves.

 

We are all scared to death of Gibson with his health and recent performance and we should all know by now that Perez isn't good enough and now we have to staff the playoff roster with players who were not allowed the opportunity to beat out Gibson or Perez.  Who do you choose? 

 

The best example I can give you is on the offensive side. What if Arraez was treated like Dobnak was? 

 

What if Arraez was only given 20 AB's and after going 9 for 20 at the plate in a couple of starts, he was then held to late game replacement duty during blowouts? What if Arraez was not given any opportunity to be better than Schoop or even Adrianza?

 

The answer is Arraez would not be on the playoff roster under that scenerio unless mulitple people were hurt and now you are rolling the dice with Arraez on the roster, probably sitting anyway, not knowing if he will be the Arraez that we have actually seen because he was given the chance to better than Schoop. 

 

This is what happened to Dobnak and Smeltzer. We don't know if Dobnak or Smeltzer is better than Perez.

 

But we do know that Perez isn't good enough. What Baldelli is doing on the offensive side of things... he must do on the mound and he hasn't and we are sitting here with Perez as our #3 starter or guessing if Dobnak or Smeltzer should take his place as the #3. 

 

Perez wasn't good enough to keep either from finding out! Now we have to guess on the eve of the playoffs.

 

Keeping Perez in the rotation all the way to late September with a 6 plus ERA since the all-star break is the equivalent of letting Logan Morrison play every day last year. Find someone better. Their performance isn't good enough. 

 

Don't get me wrong... I am over the moon happy with our front office. The change from last year to this year is bone breaking and exactly what I asked for with the position players. Now lets' do the same with the pitching staff and my posts are meant to be constructive criticisms. 

 

 

 

 

[In My La Z boy]

 

I agree with everything you say with the exception of the highlighted part. 

 

I've stated on multiple occasions that just because you have Kershaw or Chris Sale... it doesn't mean the other team is just going to lay down and die. They increase your odds but it doesn't mean that the dice doesn't come up snake eyes. 

 

Once the playoff starts it's small sample size on steroids... It is quite possible that Mookie Betts under performs while Steve Pearce wins you a world series title. A bloop that falls in or a rocket that is snagged or a blown call by the umpire can influence the result of the game and the star status of the player will have nothing to do with it. 

 

The part I disagree with is: Yes you can prepare for it. Not only can you prepare for it... You have to prepare for it.

 

No, you can't prepare for the Kershaw 5 plus ERA but you can prepare for who gets a roster spot from the fringes and we have a lot of fringe on the mound. You can prepare for who increases your odds. You can prepare for the simple question... who is the better pitcher or player when trying to set a playoff roster. 

 

And yes, you can prepare for injuries and suspensions because injuries and suspensions consistently happen and not prepping for them is not taking note that they consistently happen. 

 

Right now, the front office is looking over the 40 man roster and deciding who gets on the 25 man roster spot for the playoffs.

 

Odorizzi, Berrios, Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May and Littell should be givens providing they stay healthy this final week. They need at least 4 more arms... maybe 5. 

 

Who gets those 4 spots and who doesn't? 

Gibson? 

Perez?

Smeltzer?

Dobnak?

Thorpe?

Graterol?

Stashak? 

 

It's playoff time and the who gets those 4 spots question is critical. Wouldn't it be beneficial information to have more data than 20 MLB innings before throwing Dobnak to the playoff wolves.

 

We are all scared to death of Gibson with his health and recent performance and we should all know by now that Perez isn't good enough and now we have to staff the playoff roster with players who were not allowed the opportunity to beat out Gibson or Perez.  Who do you choose? 

 

The best example I can give you is on the offensive side. What if Arraez was treated like Dobnak was? 

 

What if Arraez was only given 20 AB's and after going 9 for 20 at the plate in a couple of starts, he was then held to late game replacement duty during blowouts? What if Arraez was not given any opportunity to be better than Schoop or even Adrianza?

 

The answer is Arraez would not be on the playoff roster under that scenerio unless mulitple people were hurt and now you are rolling the dice with Arraez on the roster, probably sitting anyway, not knowing if he will be the Arraez that we have actually seen because he was given the chance to better than Schoop. 

 

This is what happened to Dobnak and Smeltzer. We don't know if Dobnak or Smeltzer is better than Perez.

 

But we do know that Perez isn't good enough. What Baldelli is doing on the offensive side of things... he must do on the mound and he hasn't and we are sitting here with Perez as our #3 starter or guessing if Dobnak or Smeltzer should take his place as the #3. 

 

Perez wasn't good enough to keep either from finding out! Now we have to guess on the eve of the playoffs.

 

Keeping Perez in the rotation all the way to late September with a 6 plus ERA since the all-star break is the equivalent of letting Logan Morrison play every day last year. Find someone better. Their performance isn't good enough. 

 

Don't get me wrong... I am over the moon happy with our front office. The change from last year to this year is bone breaking and exactly what I asked for with the position players. Now lets' do the same with the pitching staff and my posts are meant to be constructive criticisms. 

Well said. In a nutshell, I think our FO was blown away by our performance and success this year. I think they would have bet the farm that NEXT year would have been the year, NOT this year. I think it caught them off guard. Trade deadline came, and we still had a decent starting 5, with Pineda looking better and better. Hindsight is always 20/20. I harbor zero blame on our FO. Riverbrian rightly describes the playoffs as a "small sample size on steroids" - in other words, anything can happen. Getting the division, ensuring us of a 5 game series - gives us a chance. All you can ask for is a chance. I like our chances. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I agree with everything you say with the exception of the highlighted part. 

 

I've stated on multiple occasions that just because you have Kershaw or Chris Sale... it doesn't mean the other team is just going to lay down and die. They increase your odds but it doesn't mean that the dice doesn't come up snake eyes. 

 

Once the playoff starts it's small sample size on steroids... It is quite possible that Mookie Betts under performs while Steve Pearce wins you a world series title. A bloop that falls in or a rocket that is snagged or a blown call by the umpire can influence the result of the game and the star status of the player will have nothing to do with it. 

 

The part I disagree with is: Yes you can prepare for it. Not only can you prepare for it... You have to prepare for it.

 

No, you can't prepare for the Kershaw 5 plus ERA but you can prepare for who gets a roster spot from the fringes and we have a lot of fringe on the mound. You can prepare for who increases your odds. You can prepare for the simple question... who is the better pitcher or player when trying to set a playoff roster. 

 

And yes, you can prepare for injuries and suspensions because injuries and suspensions consistently happen and not prepping for them is not taking note that they consistently happen. 

 

Right now, the front office is looking over the 40 man roster and deciding who gets on the 25 man roster spot for the playoffs.

 

Odorizzi, Berrios, Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May and Littell should be givens providing they stay healthy this final week. They need at least 4 more arms... maybe 5. 

 

Who gets those 4 spots and who doesn't? 

Gibson? 

Perez?

Smeltzer?

Dobnak?

Thorpe?

Graterol?

Stashak? 

 

It's playoff time and the who gets those 4 spots question is critical. Wouldn't it be beneficial information to have more data than 20 MLB innings before throwing Dobnak to the playoff wolves.

 

We are all scared to death of Gibson with his health and recent performance and we should all know by now that Perez isn't good enough and now we have to staff the playoff roster with players who were not allowed the opportunity to beat out Gibson or Perez.  Who do you choose? 

 

The best example I can give you is on the offensive side. What if Arraez was treated like Dobnak was? 

 

What if Arraez was only given 20 AB's and after going 9 for 20 at the plate in a couple of starts, he was then held to late game replacement duty during blowouts? What if Arraez was not given any opportunity to be better than Schoop or even Adrianza?

 

The answer is Arraez would not be on the playoff roster under that scenerio unless mulitple people were hurt and now you are rolling the dice with Arraez on the roster, probably sitting anyway, not knowing if he will be the Arraez that we have actually seen because he was given the chance to better than Schoop. 

 

This is what happened to Dobnak and Smeltzer. We don't know if Dobnak or Smeltzer is better than Perez.

 

But we do know that Perez isn't good enough. What Baldelli is doing on the offensive side of things... he must do on the mound and he hasn't and we are sitting here with Perez as our #3 starter or guessing if Dobnak or Smeltzer should take his place as the #3. 

 

Perez wasn't good enough to keep either from finding out! Now we have to guess on the eve of the playoffs.

 

Keeping Perez in the rotation all the way to late September with a 6 plus ERA since the all-star break is the equivalent of letting Logan Morrison play every day last year. Find someone better. Their performance isn't good enough. 

 

Don't get me wrong... I am over the moon happy with our front office. The change from last year to this year is bone breaking and exactly what I asked for with the position players. Now lets' do the same with the pitching staff and my posts are meant to be constructive criticisms. 

 

I guess the one thing I would argue against in the Dobnak/Arraez comparison would be that it's probably not entirely about the counting stats. By any analysis aside from power, Arraez is clearly a better hitter and all around player than Schoop is at this point in their careers. Perez, for all of his struggles, still has immensely better stuff than Dobnak and Smeltzer, who both would probably be considered "crafty" at best. 

 

I'd take both of them on the playoff roster over Perez, but I don't think it's a slam dunk and while I wish there had been better options to replace him earlier, I can see why his superior velocity, movement and repertoire caused him to remain in the rotation longer than he should have. Perez's leash may have been too long, but only because unlike Arraez, I don't think anyone is comfortable with the alternatives either. There's not a ton that is going to ease my mind about a starter going up against the Yankees after I see the number 90 on a radar gun.

 

Neither NY or HOU is very lefty heavy so my choices if it's determined Gibson is back to relative health:

 

Odorizzi, Berrios, Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May and Littell should be givens providing they stay healthy this final week. They need at least 4 more arms... maybe 5.

 

Who gets those 4 spots and who doesn't?

Gibson?

Perez?

Smeltzer?

Dobnak?

Thorpe?

Graterol?

Stashak?

[yarnivek1972]

I agree with everything you say with the exception of the highlighted part.

 

I've stated on multiple occasions that just because you have Kershaw or Chris Sale... it doesn't mean the other team is just going to lay down and die. They increase your odds but it doesn't mean that the dice doesn't come up snake eyes.

 

Once the playoff starts it's small sample size on steroids... It is quite possible that Mookie Betts under performs while Steve Pearce wins you a world series title. A bloop that falls in or a rocket that is snagged or a blown call by the umpire can influence the result of the game and the star status of the player will have nothing to do with it.

 

The part I disagree with is: Yes you can prepare for it. Not only can you prepare for it... You have to prepare for it.

 

No, you can't prepare for the Kershaw 5 plus ERA but you can prepare for who gets a roster spot from the fringes and we have a lot of fringe on the mound. You can prepare for who increases your odds. You can prepare for the simple question... who is the better pitcher or player when trying to set a playoff roster.

 

And yes, you can prepare for injuries and suspensions because injuries and suspensions consistently happen and not prepping for them is not taking note that they consistently happen.

 

Right now, the front office is looking over the 40 man roster and deciding who gets on the 25 man roster spot for the playoffs.

 

Odorizzi, Berrios, Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May and Littell should be givens providing they stay healthy this final week. They need at least 4 more arms... maybe 5.

 

Who gets those 4 spots and who doesn't?

Gibson?

Perez?

Smeltzer?

Dobnak?

Thorpe?

Graterol?

Stashak?

 

It's playoff time and the who gets those 4 spots question is critical. Wouldn't it be beneficial information to have more data than 20 MLB innings before throwing Dobnak to the playoff wolves.

 

We are all scared to death of Gibson with his health and recent performance and we should all know by now that Perez isn't good enough and now we have to staff the playoff roster with players who were not allowed the opportunity to beat out Gibson or Perez. Who do you choose?

 

The best example I can give you is on the offensive side. What if Arraez was treated like Dobnak was?

 

What if Arraez was only given 20 AB's and after going 9 for 20 at the plate in a couple of starts, he was then held to late game replacement duty during blowouts? What if Arraez was not given any opportunity to be better than Schoop or even Adrianza?

 

The answer is Arraez would not be on the playoff roster under that scenerio unless mulitple people were hurt and now you are rolling the dice with Arraez on the roster, probably sitting anyway, not knowing if he will be the Arraez that we have actually seen because he was given the chance to better than Schoop.

 

This is what happened to Dobnak and Smeltzer. We don't know if Dobnak or Smeltzer is better than Perez.

 

But we do know that Perez isn't good enough. What Baldelli is doing on the offensive side of things... he must do on the mound and he hasn't and we are sitting here with Perez as our #3 starter or guessing if Dobnak or Smeltzer should take his place as the #3.

 

Perez wasn't good enough to keep either from finding out! Now we have to guess on the eve of the playoffs.

 

Keeping Perez in the rotation all the way to late September with a 6 plus ERA since the all-star break is the equivalent of letting Logan Morrison play every day last year. Find someone better. Their performance isn't good enough.

 

Don't get me wrong... I am over the moon happy with our front office. The change from last year to this year is bone breaking and exactly what I asked for with the position players. Now lets' do the same with the pitching staff and my posts are meant to be constructive criticisms.

Dobnak started the year in A ball and didn’t make his MLB debut until August. That isn’t on Baldelli.

[Dantes929]

 

I agree with everything you say with the exception of the highlighted part. 

 

I've stated on multiple occasions that just because you have Kershaw or Chris Sale... it doesn't mean the other team is just going to lay down and die. They increase your odds but it doesn't mean that the dice doesn't come up snake eyes. 

 

Once the playoff starts it's small sample size on steroids... It is quite possible that Mookie Betts under performs while Steve Pearce wins you a world series title. A bloop that falls in or a rocket that is snagged or a blown call by the umpire can influence the result of the game and the star status of the player will have nothing to do with it. 

 

The part I disagree with is: Yes you can prepare for it. Not only can you prepare for it... You have to prepare for it.

 

No, you can't prepare for the Kershaw 5 plus ERA but you can prepare for who gets a roster spot from the fringes and we have a lot of fringe on the mound. You can prepare for who increases your odds. You can prepare for the simple question... who is the better pitcher or player when trying to set a playoff roster. 

 

And yes, you can prepare for injuries and suspensions because injuries and suspensions consistently happen and not prepping for them is not taking note that they consistently happen. 

 

Right now, the front office is looking over the 40 man roster and deciding who gets on the 25 man roster spot for the playoffs.

 

Odorizzi, Berrios, Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May and Littell should be givens providing they stay healthy this final week. They need at least 4 more arms... maybe 5. 

 

Who gets those 4 spots and who doesn't? 

Gibson? 

Perez?

Smeltzer?

Dobnak?

Thorpe?

Graterol?

Stashak? 

 

It's playoff time and the who gets those 4 spots question is critical. Wouldn't it be beneficial information to have more data than 20 MLB innings before throwing Dobnak to the playoff wolves.

 

We are all scared to death of Gibson with his health and recent performance and we should all know by now that Perez isn't good enough and now we have to staff the playoff roster with players who were not allowed the opportunity to beat out Gibson or Perez.  Who do you choose? 

 

The best example I can give you is on the offensive side. What if Arraez was treated like Dobnak was? 

 

What if Arraez was only given 20 AB's and after going 9 for 20 at the plate in a couple of starts, he was then held to late game replacement duty during blowouts? What if Arraez was not given any opportunity to be better than Schoop or even Adrianza?

 

The answer is Arraez would not be on the playoff roster under that scenerio unless mulitple people were hurt and now you are rolling the dice with Arraez on the roster, probably sitting anyway, not knowing if he will be the Arraez that we have actually seen because he was given the chance to better than Schoop. 

 

This is what happened to Dobnak and Smeltzer. We don't know if Dobnak or Smeltzer is better than Perez.

 

But we do know that Perez isn't good enough. What Baldelli is doing on the offensive side of things... he must do on the mound and he hasn't and we are sitting here with Perez as our #3 starter or guessing if Dobnak or Smeltzer should take his place as the #3. 

 

Perez wasn't good enough to keep either from finding out! Now we have to guess on the eve of the playoffs.

 

Keeping Perez in the rotation all the way to late September with a 6 plus ERA since the all-star break is the equivalent of letting Logan Morrison play every day last year. Find someone better. Their performance isn't good enough. 

 

Don't get me wrong... I am over the moon happy with our front office. The change from last year to this year is bone breaking and exactly what I asked for with the position players. Now lets' do the same with the pitching staff and my posts are meant to be constructive criticisms. 

My main point about injuries was in general  you can''t prepare to replace your best pitcher.     No matter how good your fringe, with  only occasional exceptions you are losing your best guy and replacing him with a guy that is  theoretically worse than your worst current guy.    This could be one of those times.    Baseball is all about what ifs and alternate realities.   Lets reverse your hypothetical.   What if Dobnak was treated like Arraez.   Maybe he comes up and starts in June, has a couple off starts and gets shelled, is labeled as a AAAA pitcher and we never hear from him again.    In other words maybe he pitches us to the WS but if he had been brought up earlier we lose in the 1st round or maybe don't make the playoffs in the first place.   I am ok with you thinking we should have picked up another starter or given some of the young guys a chance earlier.   The ironical thing is the trade deadline was 90% about improving the pen and abouot 10% improving the rotation.    We ended up getting two great pieces for the pen but it was only the 2nd rated pickup that worked out and we are now considered to have a good and deep bullpen.   The rotation was considered adequate and now we are hoping Berrios is good again and are talking about two spots in the rotation for bullpen games.    BTW my vote for postseason as it stands today (could change after 6 more games) is we add at least 5 more pitchers to your list and they should be Graterol, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Stashak and Thorpe.    The only questionable spot would be maybe Perez for Thorpe.   

[jkcarew]

I think the rationale in this article to go with the bullpen game in game two makes some sense. But mostly, it makes sense if you win game one. If you don't win game one, this strategy has you down a game in a 5-game series and starting a rookie (or Perez? or Gibson?)...and going bullpen, at Yankee stadium or Minute Maid...both band-boxes.

[Riverbrian]

Dobnak started the year in A ball and didn’t make his MLB debut until August. That isn’t on Baldelli.

I’m not saying it’s on Baldelli. I have no idea what happens in the room. But it’s on the group dynamic that made the decision collectively.

 

Dobnak was called up in August and was used sparingly (20 innings)while Perez pitched every 5th day. The bottom had to fall out to give Dobnak the ball.

 

At the very latest. The very second they didn’t acquire a starter in a trade to replace Perez they needed to begin the search internally for a Perez replacement.

 

Instead they hitched to a struggling Perez and locked into it. Now we are staring at a raffle drum selection hoping to get lucky.

 

We might.

[Riverbrian]

My main point about injuries was in general you can''t prepare to replace your best pitcher. No matter how good your fringe, with only occasional exceptions you are losing your best guy and replacing him with a guy that is theoretically worse than your worst current guy. This could be one of those times. Baseball is all about what ifs and alternate realities. Lets reverse your hypothetical. What if Dobnak was treated like Arraez. Maybe he comes up and starts in June, has a couple off starts and gets shelled, is labeled as a AAAA pitcher and we never hear from him again. In other words maybe he pitches us to the WS but if he had been brought up earlier we lose in the 1st round or maybe don't make the playoffs in the first place. I am ok with you thinking we should have picked up another starter or given some of the young guys a chance earlier. The ironical thing is the trade deadline was 90% about improving the pen and abouot 10% improving the rotation. We ended up getting two great pieces for the pen but it was only the 2nd rated pickup that worked out and we are now considered to have a good and deep bullpen. The rotation was considered adequate and now we are hoping Berrios is good again and are talking about two spots in the rotation for bullpen games. BTW my vote for postseason as it stands today (could change after 6 more games) is we add at least 5 more pitchers to your list and they should be Graterol, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Stashak and Thorpe. The only questionable spot would be maybe Perez for Thorpe.

Agreed... You can’t prepare to lose your best pitcher but you can prepare to try and replace your worst pitcher and that replacement improves a roster spot makes the team better and makes the drop from losing your best pitcher less of a drop.

 

As for Dobnak in your reversal of the Arraez scenario. If Dobnak gets the ball and fails. You now know and that is good information that is needed right now for playoff selection.

 

If Dobnak fails... he is off the list of choices for a playoff spot. You are no longer picking blind because you know. Then you choose Smeltzer or Graterol instead.

 

Our option now is Perez who we know is bad or a raffle drum selection who we pray is better but don’t know.

 

This could have been planned for by not settling for substandard Perez production. They bet on the wrong horse and kept betting on it.

[Riverbrian]

I guess the one thing I would argue against in the Dobnak/Arraez comparison would be that it's probably not entirely about the counting stats. By any analysis aside from power, Arraez is clearly a better hitter and all around player than Schoop is at this point in their careers. Perez, for all of his struggles, still has immensely better stuff than Dobnak and Smeltzer, who both would probably be considered "crafty" at best.

 

I'd take both of them on the playoff roster over Perez, but I don't think it's a slam dunk and while I wish there had been better options to replace him earlier, I can see why his superior velocity, movement and repertoire caused him to remain in the rotation longer than he should have. Perez's leash may have been too long, but only because unlike Arraez, I don't think anyone is comfortable with the alternatives either. There's not a ton that is going to ease my mind about a starter going up against the Yankees after I see the number 90 on a radar gun.

 

Neither NY or HOU is very lefty heavy so my choices if it's determined Gibson is back to relative health:

 

Odorizzi, Berrios, Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May and Littell should be givens providing they stay healthy this final week. They need at least 4 more arms... maybe 5.

 

Who gets those 4 spots and who doesn't?

Gibson?

Perez?

Smeltzer?

Dobnak?

Thorpe?

Graterol?

Stashak?

That’s the point that Jorgenswest was making. The team is tracking spin rates and a variety of different things that suggest that Perez is better.

 

I get this and believe that data is important but as we can all see... The data can be wrong. It has been wrong before and in the case of Perez it was wrong in the timeframe it needed to be right in.

 

The pursuit of the expected result to match that data has led us to no options but a raffle drum pull in late September.

[insagt1]

All of this just re-emphasizes just how much Pineda's bonehead move has cost the team. If he were still available the Twins starters would look totally different. Its really hard not to have real bad feelings about Pineda.

 

Also somewhat surprised how many appear to feel Berrios goes in game one. Lately what I have been hearing more and more is Odorizzi gets game one (especially after Berrios' terrible outing last time) But who knows. In any event I can't see Odorizzi pitching Sunday.

 

Dobnak as a possible starter, somewhere, seems pretty reasonable, given our limited options. I don't think Harper deserves a spot. Lots to think about.

[yarnivek1972]

I’m not saying it’s on Baldelli. I have no idea what happens in the room. But it’s on the group dynamic that made the decision collectively.

 

Dobnak was called up in August and was used sparingly (20 innings)while Perez pitched every 5th day. The bottom had to fall out to give Dobnak the ball.

 

At the very latest. The very second they didn’t acquire a starter in a trade to replace Perez they needed to begin the search internally for a Perez replacement.

 

Instead they hitched to a struggling Perez and locked into it. Now we are staring at a raffle drum selection hoping to get lucky.

 

We might.

It should be noted that the results of starts by Thorpe, Smeltzer and Stewart were so so to poor. And Dobnak’s results in AAA were really nothing to write home about in his first stint. To the point that he was sent down to AA after 4 appearances (though curiously after his best one).

 

It should also be noted that just about anyone who posted an ERA under 4 for Rochester was given a good looksee at the MLB level. Point being there weren’t guys down there saying “Try me” instead of Perez.

[Dantes929]

 

It should be noted that the results of starts by Thorpe, Smeltzer and Stewart were so so to poor. And Dobnak’s results in AAA were really nothing to write home about in his first stint. To the point that he was sent down to AA after 4 appearances (though curiously after his best one).

It should also be noted that just about anyone who posted an ERA under 4 for Rochester was given a good looksee at the MLB level. Point being there weren’t guys down there saying “Try me” instead of Perez.

Are you sure about Dobnak?  His ERA in AAA was 2.15 in AAA and 2.07 in all levels. in 150 innings.

[Dantes929]

 

 
As for Dobnak in your reversal of the Arraez scenario. If Dobnak gets the ball and fails. You now know and that is good information that is needed right now for playoff selection.

If Dobnak fails... he is off the list of choices for a playoff spot. You are no longer picking blind because you know. Then you choose Smeltzer or Graterol instead.

 

I think you missed my point while also kind of making it.   If Dobnak had been brought up earlier he might not have been ready or he might have faced  the wrong team at the wrong time and failed.   As you say the Twins might have then written him off and moved on and that might well have been the absolute wrong thing to do..    its not just about opportunity, its about timing.  As it stands, they brought him up later, he has done great to the point many of us here not only think he should make the roster but that he should start game 2.    I know we don't have 11 guys that have sustainable sub 3.7 ERA's on this team but that is who they have been so far and I prefer they go in there with some confidence and hope the glue holds for another few weeks. I'm not saying your points aren't valid.  In fact, I think they are.  However, its baseball and many times the right moves fail and many times the wrong moves work out.   Given that Pineda is out I feel about as good about this pitching staff as I have all year.   If Smeltzer, Dobnak, Sashak, Littell had been given more chance earlier and failed I would not be feeling so good about needing Gibson, Perez, Harper and Hildenberger  just because we have nothing else.  

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Are you sure about Dobnak? His ERA in AAA was 2.15 in AAA and 2.07 in all levels. in 150 innings.

a 3.35 FIP suggests “he’s not as good” as 2.01 ml era, but PTC pitchers that hang around tend to have a better ERA than FIP or they don’t last.

 

3.35 FIP is pretty good on its own merit. Perez at 4.64 or Gibson’s out of gas 4.34 FIP. Smeltzer 4.92 but has looked stronger in the vision test.

 

My other choice as a starter for the DS is Lewis Thorpe 3.64 FIP.

 

I agree w/the OP that Dobnak/Thorpe makes the most sense for Game 2.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Your logic is unassailable; thus, it will not happen. However, if it did, I would pitch Dobbie first, then hit 'em with some Smeltzer in their pants. The young lefty has shown an ability to baffle hitters with his slow stuff, and he doesn't. walk. people. Between Dobs and Smelt, you could get 6 or 7 innings with the team still in the game. After that it's Duffey, Romo, and Rogers slams the door. 

Smeltzer in the pants.

[jimbo92107]

 

Smeltzer in the pants.

Hat tip, Mary Tyler Moore show. At the funeral for a Chuckles the Clown, Ted quotes the harlequin's signature line: "A little song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants."

 

Mary of course cannot help it, she laughs at the funeral. 

[Riverbrian]

 

It should also be noted that just about anyone who posted an ERA under 4 for Rochester was given a good looksee at the MLB level. Point being there weren’t guys down there saying “Try me” instead of Perez.

 

You say that there wasn't anybody down in Rochester saying "Try Me" instead of Perez. I assume you mean... they weren't producing decently enough to earn the right to be tried and I get that. I disagree with Dobnak... His numbers were quite strong but I get what you are saying. 

 

However... I look at it from the completely opposite direction. 

 

I'm not looking at Rochester for someone to earn it. I'm saying it was the production from Perez saying "We should try" somebody else. 

 

Perez wasn't earning it and Perez had to be addressed somehow, someway because the offense was going to bring this team to the playoffs.