Article: Aaron Hicks' stock will be rising this offseason

[Parker Hageman]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1108-Aaron-Hicks-stock-will-be-rising-this-offseason

[Shane Wahl]

I never gave up on Hicks and kept him near the top of my prospect list after the 2011 season. His defense alone makes him a starter. He looks to be a Hunter-Span hybrid. And that is damn good.

[clutterheart]

2011 Hicks went to Arizona in the fall league and really played well. Lots of people wrote that off as "everyone hits well in Arizona"

But since then he has been playing at a high level. Something seemed to have clicked for him there.

[kab21]

Hicks has always been a prospect that people overrated when he was on a hot streak and then almost immediately underrated when he went on a cold streak. I was always frustrated to people's opinions swing so wildly in the span of a couple of months and never really understood. It should be worth mentioning that a couple of cold streaks coincided with a few minor injuries that he suffered.

[Mike Sixel]

I think it is funny that people feel being the 45th ranked prospect in all of the minors is some giant fall from grace. He will climb back up, agreed.

[Parker Hageman]

I think it is funny that people feel being the 45th ranked prospect in all of the minors is some giant fall from grace.

 

What is curious to me is what motivated BA to drop him from 19th to 45th AFTER his solid season at Beloit. Could be that there was a big influx of talent that pushed him down the list. I don't know. If someone has the pre-2011 Baseball America Handbook that has his write-up, please let me know the reasoning.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think it is funny that people feel being the 45th ranked prospect in all of the minors is some giant fall from grace.

 

What is curious to me is what motivated BA to drop him from 19th to 45th AFTER his solid season at Beloit. Could be that there was a big influx of talent that pushed him down the list. I don't know. If someone has the pre-2011 Baseball America Handbook that has his write-up, please let me know the reasoning.

 

Didn't he have absolutely atrocious splits against lefties that year? That'd be my guess for the drop in the rankings.

[gunnarthor]

Parker - they dropped him because he was repeating A ball and wasn't tearing it up. Then when he struggled in A+, they dropped him altogether.

 

I liked your discussion about how his new swing was part of the process of shortening his long swing. Nice to remember that changes like that don't happen over night.

 

Hicks was a fun prospect to follow this year and should be a big part of the Twins long term plans.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I liked your discussion about how his new swing was part of the process of shortening his long swing. Nice to remember that changes like that don't happen over night.

 

John and I had a conversation about this awhile ago and I think it has real merit.

 

Twins' hitters seem to drop off the radar for a few years, often around high A or maybe even AA. Parmelee, Plouffe, and to an extent, Hicks. Then, as they approach the higher minors (AA, AAA), they seem to burst back on the scene with a vengeance. It makes me wonder what the Twins are doing in the low minors that "stalls" hitter development. Are they reworking players' swings and writing off a season or two while that player adjusts?

 

I'm not against whatever they're doing because they've been churning out pretty good hitters for awhile now (unfortunately, the exact opposite can be said of the pitching) but I find the trend interesting to mull over.

[Parker Hageman]

Are they reworking players' swings and writing off a season or two while that player adjusts?

 

Part of a conversation I had with Rob Antony, and to paraphrase, was that the Twins focus more on the process than the outcomes during the low-to-mid levels. So that in the case of Hicks, they are looking for those types of things like shortening his swing or being more aggressive with two-strikes, for example, rather than the actual numbers.

 

Parker - they dropped him because he was repeating A ball and wasn't tearing it up. Then when he struggled in A+, they dropped him altogether.

 

I'm not sure it was just repeating - after all, he was just 20 and younger than league average. But that could be part of the reason. Tearing it up as in the power numbers? Because otherwise, he put up a hell of a season, finishing 12th in OBP in the Midwest League.

 

Didn't he have absolutely atrocious splits against lefties that year? That'd be my guess for the drop in the rankings.

 

Yes, I recall there was one point where the discussion was if Hicks should give up being a switch hitter.

[Parker Hageman]

Oh, and as to why Hicks is in Venezuela this year, Terry Ryan said this back in August:

 

"One of the things we like about winter ball in Latin American versus the Arizona Fall League is the culture," Ryan said. "You've got to go down there and produce or they send you right back. I like that. That's a good thing. There's an urgency about winter ball down there versus the Fall League, which is a developmental league."Hicks has been through that already; now he can go down to Latin America and he's got to put up or they'll send him back home."

[nicksaviking]

Another great visual breakdown Parker. Your fact-based mechanical diagnosis is a terrific counterweight to the many opinion based posts on this site.

[LimestoneBaggy]

The criticism on Hicks’s approach is that he could be too passive at times. Hicks boasts a high strikeout rate and a significant portion of those (39%) in 2011 were of the caught-looking variety, an indication that he was not aggressive enough with two strikes on him. Of course, the other side of the coin is that it has led to a 14% career minor league walk rate – a solid pillar supporting his .379 on-base percentage. While walks are en vogue with OBP-ers, there are those in the system who would like to see him use his six-foot-two athletic frame to transfer some power into the ball.

 

Parker, Thanks for the article. I have a question about hitter development in relation to the above. Although player development factors by individual, I've always wondered why the overly passive hitter isn't viewed as a development bonus in contrast to the strikeout prone.

[kab21]

I think the big reasons that Hicks was falling in the lists after 2010 and 2011 was that he was showing below average power with a low BA and progressing slowly. 17 HR's during 3 A ball seasons is rather lackluster. This is not unusual for toolsy

 

I'll be honest that he dropped on my lists (still kept him relatively high) and probably on everyones. I consider him a different prospect than what he was in 2008 (obviously). Then he was that high upside/high risk player that could have any outcome from AAAA 4th OF'er to superstar. Now his floor looks like it will be a below average regular while his upside is only an above average player that makes an AS game or two.

 

If I was trying to project an optimistic slash line for him it would be something like this .260/.350/.410/.760. Sure he could hit .280 but I think he K's too much. Perhaps he is able to add some power and approach a .200 isoP but I would be surprised if he consistently had a .800+ OPS. However with plus D he can be pretty valuable with a .760 OPS.

[Steve Lein]

I'm like Shane, I think Hicks only fell to #3 on my prospect list at the beginning of this year (He was #1 the 2 years prior). He's a guy where when you see him amongst all his teammates, you'd have a really hard time saying someone else looked more athletic. Then there's his CF defense, which you can't dismiss (Dirty Little Secret: He covers even more ground in CF than Ben Revere can). What I saw in his hitting numbers as he "struggled" was a guy who would put it all together if he just swung the bat more often, which I think he did this year. Also not mentioned, was the increased havoc he brought to the basepaths this year. He had 60 SB in his first 4 seasons combined, swiping them at a 65% success rate. This year he swiped 32, at a 74% success rate. Best thing development-wise this year was seeing his drastic Lefty-Righty splits disappear completely, and he was actually better from the left side than right (.282 from left, .277 from right), though he still shows more power when batting righty.

[ThePuck]

I think it is funny that people feel being the 45th ranked prospect in all of the minors is some giant fall from grace.

 

What is curious to me is what motivated BA to drop him from 19th to 45th AFTER his solid season at Beloit. Could be that there was a big influx of talent that pushed him down the list. I don't know. If someone has the pre-2011 Baseball America Handbook that has his write-up, please let me know the reasoning.

 

I didn't see him at all on the BA top 100 list dated 21 Feb '12. On the BA top 100 list dated 23 Feb 2011 he was 45th (as I'm sure you knew), but I can't get the write-up as to why he dropped from 19 in 2010 to 45 in 2011. Maybe cause 1st round draft picks that aren't developing well enough for the owning organization to promote them earlier is part of it. I mean, he had already spent a year in Beloit...and he had to spend another year there? Yes he did well, but perhaps BA wonders why the organization themselves didn't feel he was worthy of a promotion to A+ or AA during the 2010 season?

[Steve Lein]

As for reasons Hicks repeated low-A at Beloit: He didn't start playing there in 2009 until halfway through the season (67 games total), was in Florida for Extended Spring Training. I chalk it up to wanting to give him a full year on the circuit in 2010.

[ThePuck]

As for reasons Hicks repeated low-A at Beloit: He didn't start playing there in 2009 until halfway through the season (67 games total), was in Florida for Extended Spring Training. I chalk it up to wanting to give him a full year on the circuit in 2010.

 

I'm just trying to give possible reasons why...it's all speculation since I don't have the write-up. It could just be that every year there are new prospects popping up and he just slipped down. One could also speculate he was too high to begin with at 19.

[Thrylos]

Good to see Hicks produce this season. Got to try to dig some of the shots of him I took during last ST but he seemed like a man with a mission. Much focused. The SH argument has always been a valid argument. I think that he can be a Granderson type player if he gets his hitting going for that one side.

 

That said, he is still young. He just turned 23 a few days ago.,

[old nurse]

 

I'm not against whatever they're doing because they've been churning out pretty good hitters for awhile now (unfortunately, the exact opposite can be said of the pitching) but I find the trend interesting to mull over.

 

Refining pitching has to be a hard job. Batters can make a mistake on two pitches and still have another chance. Pitchers make a mistake and get to face another batter with someone on base. To throw something the hitters can't immediately recognize within a few inches of a spot is difficult to do. To throw it with trajectory and spin so that when the hitter does make contact it does not go far or fast is also hard. To throw a couple different pitches that look the same starting out would also be difficult. To throw it fast enough to decrease the time the hitter has to react is a talent very few have. To refine someone who has success against lesser talent would be another component to add. Correcting whatever is the difference on a pitcher between success and failure is probably different for each pitcher.

[drjim]

I'm like Shane, I think Hicks only fell to #3 on my prospect list at the beginning of this year (He was #1 the 2 years prior). He's a guy where when you see him amongst all his teammates, you'd have a really hard time saying someone else looked more athletic. Then there's his CF defense, which you can't dismiss (Dirty Little Secret: He covers even more ground in CF than Ben Revere can). What I saw in his hitting numbers as he "struggled" was a guy who would put it all together if he just swung the bat more often, which I think he did this year. Also not mentioned, was the increased havoc he brought to the basepaths this year. He had 60 SB in his first 4 seasons combined, swiping them at a 65% success rate. This year he swiped 32, at a 74% success rate. Best thing development-wise this year was seeing his drastic Lefty-Righty splits disappear completely, and he was actually better from the left side than right (.282 from left, .277 from right), though he still shows more power when batting righty.

 

I would still put him at #3 behind Sano/Buxton. Everything I have read is elite CF defense and plus arm. This, combined with the .760 OPS kab mentioned is a really good player.

[Mr. Ed]

Nate Roberts' showing thus far in AZ Fall League bodes well for the team's outfield depth. Trades involving one or 2 in this "depth" need to happen.

[bobonewsome]

One thing that helped him stay high on the Twin's propect list was the lack of other prospects.

[Boys of Summer]

Who cares where BA or any other "expert" places Hicks on thier mythical lists? The only issue that matters is whether or not he'll be able to patrol center field at Target Field and hit like a major leaguer. I'm far more interested in the adjustments made to his hitting stance and the success of said adjustments.

 

The reason players drop is because there are new shiny toys that have neither proven or disproven themselves. All of those who "rank" want to be able to claim that they saw it all along. When a player like Hicks doesn't have immediate success, then he is dropped.

[ThePuck]

Aaron Hicks is a 1st round pick...a 1st round pick that will be starting his 6th season in the minors. Maybe that has something to do with it.

[James]

Aaron Hicks is a 1st round pick...a 1st round pick that will be starting his 6th season in the minors. Maybe that has something to do with it.

You mean his 6th season at the age of 23, right? It's not like he's old.

[ThePuck]

Aaron Hicks is a 1st round pick...a 1st round pick that will be starting his 6th season in the minors. Maybe that has something to do with it.

You mean his 6th season at the age of 23, right? It's not like he's old.

 

Didn't say he was old, did I? But there's no rule he has to be 24-27 before he's promoted is there? I'm trying to give the person who asked a good reason as to why he's dropped in the prospect rankings. I'm throwing out the possibility that maybe BA sees he was drafted in the first round 5 seasons ago still and he isn't ready for the majors according to his own team. In fact, he hasn't seen AAA yet. That might play a part into why he had dropped in the prospect rankings.

[DaveW]

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[old nurse]

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From what I have read of Dave's posts I would believe he is serious.

[freshinthehouse]

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Haha agreed.