Front Page: Bronx Bombers Catch the Bomba Squad. Can Twins Regain Record?

[John Bonnes]

Can the Twins keep the home run record? Let's break it down.

 

Last night in the middle of the Twins 5-0 win over the Washington Nationals, the news broke: the New York Yankees had tied – and then PASSED – the Twins in home run totals. A clutch two-run home run by Mitch Garver put the Twins back into a tie before the night was over, but is the Bomba Counter a sham? Can the Twins stay ahead of the Yankees in the home run race?The bad news first: the Yankees are on a tear. They caught the Twins last night because they hit SIX home runs versus Ron Gardenhire’s toothless Tigers. Hooray pitch to contact!. Even worse is that was just their first game against them this week. They have two more.

 

And it's not just one game. New York has averaged 2.5 per game over their last 35 games, which doesn’t sound like that big a deal (because who really pays attention to numbers after decimal points, amirite?) except that’s a 400+ home runs per year pace.

 

The good news? The Twins have two games more to play than the Yankees. So on a game-to-game basis, the Twins are technically eight home runs ahead. But with all the nagging injuries in the Twins lineup, their home run pace has slowed considerably. Since September first, the Twins have eight home runs in nine games. If that trend continues, those two games mean only two home runs, and the Yankees have already passed that by six home runs.

 

A longer term view shows just how consistent each team has been, and how the Twins curve has flattened out over the last couple of weeks while the Yankees’ has trended up. To help you out, I’ve highlighted the part that is not good.

 

Download attachment: Home_run_notgood_JB_900.jpg

 

Does the schedule help? A little. The Twins will face some pretty good pitching over the next five games versus the Nationals and the Indians, but then they get to face the bottom three in the AL Central again. They’ve hit 71 home runs versus the White Sox and Tigers this year in 36 games, or about two per game. Unfortunately, the Yankees finish their season at Texas, a ballpark notorious for giving up home runs.

 

I’m not going to sugar-coat this: it’s not looking good. The Twins’ home run pace has slowed, they are banged up and need to focus on winning a division. The Yankees are hot, getting healthier and can coast. It’s been a heck of a fun year, but it looks like the Twins will (again) have their lunch money stolen again by those Damn Yankees.

 

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[the_brute_squad]

The only HR's that will mater will be the ones we hit against the Yankees in the postseason.

[LeatherAntenna]

Technically eight homeruns up? They are averaging 1.95 per game, so isn’t that just under four games up?

[yarnivek1972]

If the Twins get rained out tonight and tomorrow and the games don’t need to be made up, the Twins would only have 160 regular season games. It’s possible, the Nationals have a 2 1/2 game lead for the top wild card spot. If it is at least that after the 29th, they won’t play the games. Of course, that also assumes that the Twins clinch the Central before then without those two games.

Edited September 11, 2019 by yarnivek1972

[Dman]

Being home run kings was just a surprising and fun development that I never saw coming this year.  We still have a slim chance to beat them but I am not sure that it matters that much to me. 

 

Would it have been nice bragging rights sure but I think with the way teams are going to be put together now that record might continue to be broken for a while.  Whether we win it or not we have proven we can play with the big boys and have a dangerous lineup where almost any player can go yard at any time.  That is good enough for me.

[John Bonnes]

 

Technically eight homeruns up? They are averaging 1.95 per game, so isn’t that just under four games up?

 

The Yankees have played two more games than the Twins. If you take away the Yankees two games (because the Twins have not played those two games yet) the Yankees would be eight home runs back, because that's where they sat two games ago.

 

But a more accurate way (in my mind) of thinking about it is that with two games in hand, it means the Twins are "up" as many home runs as you think they'll hit in those two games. For the season, that's about four home runs up. But for the last week-plus, that's just two home runs, which Rick Anderson's pitching staff should have no trouble making up. 

[h2oface]

No need to factor in the Twins are banged up, really. I mean........ it's not like the Yankees have been even close to fully staffed by all their sluggers all season, and Stanton has been totally absent. The Twins are slowing down, even those (except Garver, it seems) that aren't nicked up.

 

But it ain't over until it's over. I hope the Twins do take and keep the record. I really do. That would mean winning a bunch of games in September. And records do matter. That is why we keep track of them. 

[Jham]

Also, MLB wants the Yankees (not the Twins) to have the record. I don't discount that.

[JW24]

Yankees can have this record. It would not, in any way, diminish this Twins season if they do not end the year with the most homers hit. AL Central champions is far more important.

 

Also, congrats to the Yankees on hitting a whole bunch of homers in a game where they allowed 12 runs to the Tigers and lost. They should feel really good about how they played last night.

[REPETE]

 

Yankees can have this record. It would not, in any way, diminish this Twins season if they do not end the year with the most homers hit. AL Central champions is far more important.

 

Also, congrats to the Yankees on hitting a whole bunch of homers in a game where they allowed 12 runs to the Tigers and lost. They should feel really good about how they played last night.

Didn't the Twins surpass the record on a night they lost?  To that same Gardy team?

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

While it’s a novelty, and would be nice to set the record, I don’t care too much if they finish with more or less than the Yankees. All that matters is the post-season.

 

I do wonder, though, if MLB does something to swing the pendulum back towards pitchers next year. This year has been crazy with regards to home runs. If so, the record could stand for a while.

[SomeGuy]

Impressive given the health issues the Yankees have dealt with all season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If the Twins get rained out tonight and tomorrow and the games don’t need to be made up, the Twins would only have 160 regular season games. It’s possible, the Nationals have a 2 1/2 game lead for the top wild card spot. If it is at least that after the 29th, they won’t play the games. Of course, that also assumes that the Twins clinch the Central before then without those two games.

That's true, but I'm guessing neither team wants to potentially play a makeup game after the 29th, let alone two. Especially Washington -- that would likely eat their only off day before the wild card game.

 

I'd be surprised if they don't get both games in to finish this series. They may postpone tonight's game to tomorrow afternoon if necessary, and/or wait out multiple delays, but they'll try. The current forecast suggests the Thursday night game should be OK as scheduled.

[yarnivek1972]

That's true, but I'm guessing neither team wants to potentially play a makeup game after the 29th, let alone two. Especially Washington -- that would likely eat their only off day before the wild card game.

 

I'd be surprised if they don't get both games in to finish this series. They may postpone tonight's game to tomorrow afternoon if necessary, and/or wait out multiple delays, but they'll try. The current forecast suggests the Thursday night game should be OK as scheduled.

I’m looking at the “hourly” forecasts. It shows 60% chance of rain starting at 7 tonight and it doesn’t drop below that percentage until 9 pm Thursday night.

 

And while I realize the potential importance of getting the games in, I’m pretty sure the last thing the Twins want to do is risk MORE injuries playing in rain or on a soaked field. Keep in mind, until the first pitch is thrown, the decision to play belongs to the Twins.

Edited September 11, 2019 by yarnivek1972

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Also, congrats to the Yankees on hitting a whole bunch of homers in a game where they allowed 12 runs to the Tigers and lost. They should feel really good about how they played last night.

It was a bullpen game for New York, one in which they were mostly using pitchers who won't be on their playoff roster.

 

I'm sure they'd rather win than lose, of course, but they're 99.9% to win their division, and they may even like the 2nd seed (and facing MIN in the first round, against whom they are 4-2) almost as much as the 1st seed (where they'd play either TBR 12-5, OAK 2-4, or CLE 3-4) -- even just having the certainty of knowing/preparing for a single opponent might be nicer than waiting for the wild card game outcome. (AL wild card game is scheduled for Oct. 2nd, and the ALDS begin on Oct. 4)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I’m looking at the “hourly” forecasts. It shows 60% chance of rain starting at 7 tonight and it doesn’t drop below that percentage until 9 pm Thursday night.

I was looking at hourly too -- 43% at 7 PM tonight, not going above 60% until 11 PM, and dropping to 25% by 8 PM Thursday:

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/target-field/55403/hourly-weather-forecast/53242_poi

 

Although I'm sure this will change as we get closer.

 

 

And while I realize the potential importance of getting the games in, I’m pretty sure the last thing the Twins want to do is risk MORE injuries playing in rain or on a soaked field. Keep in mind, until the first pitch is thrown, the decision to play belongs to the Twins.

That may be so, but I'm pretty sure the Twins will exercise any discretion within a set of acceptable standards. I doubt they'd be able to cancel two games in row -- late in the season, with potential playoff implications and no possible make-up days -- that they'd otherwise try to play if they weren't down a few outfielders.

Edited September 11, 2019 by spycake

[USAFChief]

Didn't the Twins surpass the record on a night they lost? To that same Gardy team?

is that the night the twins hit 6...and lost?

[AlwaysinModeration]

It was a bullpen game for New York, one in which they were mostly using pitchers who won't be on their playoff roster.

 

I'm sure they'd rather win than lose, of course, but they're 99.9% to win their division, and they may even like the 2nd seed (and facing MIN in the first round, against whom they are 4-2) almost as much as the 1st seed (where they'd play either TBR 12-5, OAK 2-4, or CLE 3-4) -- even just having the certainty of knowing/preparing for a single opponent might be nicer than waiting for the wild card game outcome. (AL wild card game is scheduled for Oct. 2nd, and the ALDS begin on Oct. 4)

Deja vu

[JW24]

 

Didn't the Twins surpass the record on a night they lost?  To that same Gardy team?

Yeah, but the Twins only gave up 10 runs in the game they lost!

[JW24]

 

It was a bullpen game for New York, one in which they were mostly using pitchers who won't be on their playoff roster.

With Edwin Jackson starting for Detroit, it was really a bullpen game for both teams. I think in a battle of bullpens, the Yanks still hold a pretty sizable advantage.

 

I recognize my original post was pretty salty. The Twins were going to set a new record in the Tigers series at some point. The Yanks (mostly fans on Twitter) celebrating tying the Twins HR total in a game they lost to the worst team in baseball is what mostly set me off. Also, because I kind of want the Twins to have the record at the end of the season.

[Bandit34]

Here's hoping the Yankees get that record. What a gimmick! I don't care one bit who gets the record and do not truly understand why it was such a big deal to begin with. I do, however, care about winning the division. I was actually rather disappointed that Rosario spoke up the night they lost and yet broke the record for HRs. I think the team ought to have been highly disappointed because that dumb record means absolutely nothing. But that loss to a bad Tigers team? You bet the guys had a right to be disappointed that night. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Yanks (mostly fans on Twitter) celebrating tying the Twins HR total in a game they lost to the worst team in baseball is what mostly set me off.

You mean these guys?

 

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1058525/baseballyankeefans.gif

[jkcarew]

I think it's very meaningful that the Twins finally have fielded a team that can hit HR's at a rate at/near the top of the league. It's an important part of being able to consistently win games. Especially in this era, where opponents WILL hit HR's.

 

Do I care about the record? Not in the least. Between the evolving approaches to hitting, and complicit acts of MLB (balls, new parks, etc.), the record was always destined to last about a day and a half.

[Rosterman]

Well, I don't want the Twins swinging for the fences because. They will get home runs or not get home runs. Cruz, Kepler and Sano have to stay healthy and the Twins have to feel comfortably playing Sano. 

 

I want Cave to get three more dingers so the Twins can at least have that record (12 players with 10+ home runs).

 

But the key is still winning the division and then advancing from there.

 

Imagine if the Yankees had Stanton all season. They would be 30 homers ahead of the Twins.

[jimbo92107]

More important is for the remaining healthy three or four guys to keep barreling up as many pitches as possible. Home runs are nice, but when you've got runners on base, it's vital to keep the line moving. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Here are two things more important than home runs:

• Don't needlessly give up outs
• Don't give up walks

Do them and you don't have to live or die by the long ball.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

The Yankees have played two more games than the Twins. If you take away the Yankees two games (because the Twins have not played those two games yet) the Yankees would be eight home runs back, because that's where they sat two games ago.

 

But a more accurate way (in my mind) of thinking about it is that with two games in hand, it means the Twins are "up" as many home runs as you think they'll hit in those two games. For the season, that's about four home runs up. But for the last week-plus, that's just two home runs, which Rick Anderson's pitching staff should have no trouble making up. 

Huh?? 2 games. 1.97 home runs per game. 1.97 x 2 = 3.94. Rounded off to 4.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Imagine if the Yankees had Stanton all season. They would be 30 homers ahead of the Twins.

I don't think so -- his replacements have hit quite a few too. Yankee DHs this season have 37 HR -- and that didn't really take away HR from other positions either. 

 

Split HR
C 37
1B 25
2B 19
3B 31
SS 42
LF 25
CF 28
RF 31
DH 37

 

Stanton himself "only" hit 38 last year, in 158 games.

 

Encarnacion, Voit, Mike Tauchman, Mike Ford -- all of those guys have hit plenty of HR in 2019 in place of Giancarlo Stanton.

Edited September 11, 2019 by spycake

[Bomba2026]

I'd rather win a World Series than have the Home Run record....We showed the Yankees we can play with them and I don't think this team is afraid of them...

[Platoon]

I 'liked' some of the posts because they were in tune with my thoughts on this. I think the most interesting thing about the HR record could be its permanence of MLB decides to go back to a real baseball next year and in the future. To me this is sort of like moving the mound in to 54' and being impressed by the amount of strike outs pitchers are accruing! .