Front Page: An Early Look at The Top Free Agent Starting Pitchers

[DocBauer]

Concentrating on what I believe will happen and what I believe is true concerning the FO, including my opinion on how they look at things. I am simply not going to get in to an ownership debate.

 

A couple quick points that I think are relevant:

 

1] The new regime HAS made FA a priority when they felt it was right to do so. A year ago it didn't work, at all. This year, it did, and in a pretty big way. (This excludes Castro and Pineda, to a degree, as they were previous year moves). Despite carrying opinions, they were seriously in on Darvish until the extra year came in to play. They haven't done anything to "break the bank", but they also haven't been shy about playing in the FA pool. However...

 

2] They have also made it clear they are looking for sustainability for the franchise. This includes everything from analytics, to coaching changes, to player acquisition, to the draft and milb development, and INCLUDES FA to augment the roster.

 

Regarding the listed FA, I just feel Cole will be one of those guys heavy hitters look at, and simply outbid the Twins. We can talk about money off the books and total payroll, but I am speculating someone doing 5-6yrs at more than $20M per because they feel they can absorb any future financial "loss". Just too rich for the Twins.

 

Hamels has had a nice career, but is 35. Ryu could be interesting, but is 32, and recent history though limited, has seemingly shown the Asian ballplayers just aren't very interested.

 

Wheeler is a pretty solid option, only 29yo, and has really only had 1 bad year. He's usually good for 180IP, but his ERA is a little high this season. I'm always a little Leary of NL pitchers with higher ERA as I expect it to go up in the AL. Is this season just an aberration? He has 3 out of 5 seasons with a low 3 ERA. I'm interested!

 

Assuming Cole is off the table, the guy I'm interested in the most, I think, is Bumgarner. And not just because he is LH and has WS HERO tattooed on his resume. I didn't like him as an potentially expensive rental player. And his ERA is a little in 2019, but he's still taking his turn daily, still averaging almost a K per IP, and is an experienced competitor. (Some might argue he is too much of a competitor at times). This might be the perfect time in his career for a change of scenery, and to work with someone like Johnson, on a mostly young and dynamic team.

 

I am 50/50 the Twins will make a FA signing of someone like Wheeler or Bumgarner. Watching how they work, I slightly lean to them making a trade for an under 30 or 30ish SP with a couple years of control. No, I don't have a name to throw out there at this time. My thoughts and reflection tell me they would do all they can to keep their top 3-4 prospects in house, but open up the rest of the system for a 3-5 player deal to bring in a guy who is good, and they think is a tweak or two away from being great.

 

As to what is "on hand":

 

I still hesitate to say they will offer Odorizzi a QO. I like him. I'd like him back. He fits in as a talented veteran SP who is, generally, lights out for 5+ IP as a #3. Unless the market suddenly explodes again, he's worth some sort of 2, 2 + 1, maybe even a 3yr deal for anywhere between $12-15M per.

 

Considering his recent suspension, and previous injury history, weighted against previous production when healthy, and what he has done this season, Pineda isn't far behind. But new events and past history should have available for a little less than Odorizzi.

 

Gibson is a wild card. And I feel sorry for the guy. I'm not sure any recent Twin has had more differing opinion and sometimes vitriol sent his way. Forgetting his first call up...coming off TJ surgery, probably tiring and being a rookie...his first two seasons were very solid! Then he, and THE ENTIRE TEAM imploded in 2016. But it seems like some want to focus all the disappointment and blame on him for that season. The first half of his 2017 season was also bad but then suddenly, demotion, tweaks, a different mind-set he was a new man for the rest of the season and for 2018. And then he battles a bad illness loses tons of weight and strength, but battles back to pitch pretty well until this latest illness.

 

Gibson is a huge wild card, but probably had cheaply even if be finishes the hear decently.

 

Then there is Perez. Yet another wild card. I was completely against the move. Then he got off to that fantastic start. When he struggled, I even found myself actually defending him because I still velocity, SO, and 1-2-3 IP mixed in with bad stuff. And 3 of his last 4 starts have been pretty nice. His first year with the Twins, first year with Johnson, first year learning his new cutter, how he finishes 2019 will determine whether his next year is picked up. Someone stated he would be far too expensive for a 5th SP. But is he really that costly? And considering his start, and recent trajectory upward again, if he finishes solid, wouldn't he be smart to bring back?

 

2020 ROTATION, IMO:

 

Berrios

FA/Trade

Odorizzi

Pineda or Gibson

Perez

 

Waiting in the wings and challenging:

 

Graterol

Thorpe

Smeltzer

[Doctor Wu]

 

Are Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana free agents?

We could also pick up Kevin Slowey and Phil Humber on the cheap.

[Doctor Wu]

But in all seriousness, I'd be shocked if the Twins forked out money for any of the free agent pitchers you listed. I think we absolutely need a top flight arm in the rotation, but I don't see it happening via free agency this coming season.

[terrydactyls]

 

This team has fifty or more million it can add to the budget, and still make a profit. Y'all have to stop listening to the owners about payroll.... Or not. Up to you. But they have plenty of budget.

Good to know that we have a Twins' accountant on board to clarify what the "break even" point is for making a profit.

[Mike Sixel]

Good to know that we have a Twins' accountant on board to clarify what the "break even" point is for making a profit.

They made money last year, revenue is up, and more than fifty million is coming off the books. Those are all publicly available facts. Do you have any evidence otherwise?

[howieramone2]

 

Just my opinion, but I don’t think there is any chance the Twins go after a big name guy. It’s just not something they’ve ever done. I don’t care about regime change, I think it’s an ownership thing. So, I’m already crossing Cole, Strasburg, and Ryu off the list. Zero chance there.

Hamels, Bumgarner, or Wheeler fit right into the Twins wheelhouse, IMO. They can probably be had on cheaper short-term deals and have the name recognition to satisfy the PR side (plenty of fans will be excited about Hamels/MadBum). Just enough for them to point and say, “see, it’s the biggest free agent pitcher deal of all time....please believe that we’re all in (even though we’re not) and please buy some season tickets (before you realize that we’re not).”

Don’t get me wrong, they should absolutely be in on the biggest free agents out there. The payroll is almost nothing. The core is young and cheap. It’s one of those proverbial, “if they don’t do it now, they never will,” type of scenario. I’m leaning towards the “never will” coming to fruition and we’ll be left massively underwhelmed like we are every year.

You still disappointed we came in 2nd on Darvish?

[Mike Sixel]

You still disappointed we came in 2nd on Darvish?

 

Where do you expect to get three good pitchers next year, if you don't sign good ones? Also, Yu has been good the second half this year, isn't on the IL, and isn't suspended. He's also under contract past this year, so one spot would be filed for next year....

[howieramone2]

 

 

They made money last year, revenue is up, and more than fifty million is coming off the books. Those are all publicly available facts. Do you have any evidence otherwise?

You haven't convinced me. I recall you inferred the Pohlads should spent like drunken sailors because their money was all inherited.

[howieramone2]

 

 

Where do you expect to get three good pitchers next year, if you don't sign good ones? Also, Yu has been good the second half this year, isn't on the IL, and isn't suspended. He's also under contract past this year, so one spot would be filed for next year....

King Theo has done everything except hang a for sale sign around his neck.

[USAFChief]

 

King Theo has done everything except hang a for sale sign around his neck.

Really?

 

Darvish has given the Cubs 157 innings of 108 ERA+ pitching, with a 1.13 WHIP and almost 11 K/9. 3.5 K/W. 2.69 ERA in the second half.

 

I highly doubt the Cubs are looking to trade Darvish, but if they are, I hope Falvine are all over it. He'd be the Twins best or second best starter, now and probably next year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You haven't convinced me. I recall you inferred the Pohlads should spent like drunken sailors because their money was all inherited.

 

I, of course, have never said they should spend like the top teams. Not once. But sure, put this out there.

[twins1095]

Do we see the Twins trying to get to 4 starters and then playing the opener/long-man game with the 5th starter?  

 

I think that's one way to make this process a little bit easier.  I think after next season (if not sooner) you start to be in a position for some of that starting depth Graterol/Balazovic/Colina/Duran/Ober/Alcala/etc to hopefully be ready to push for spots.  

 

I would rather do the opener/long-man thing with whomever and try to get through it that way than to overpay someone or sign someone mediocre long-term

Edited September 10, 2019 by twins1095

[howieramone2]

 

Really?

 

Darvish has given the Cubs 157 innings of 108 ERA+ pitching, with a 1.13 WHIP and almost 11 K/9. 3.5 K/W. 2.69 ERA in the second half.

 

I highly doubt the Cubs are looking to trade Darvish, but if they are, I hope Falvine are all over it. He'd be the Twins best or second best starter, now and probably next year.

Spend some time on the Cubbie Board. It's pretty widespread the window is prematurely closing due to King Theo's lousy free agent signings. He would most likely take board favorite Nick Anderson even up, if the Rays would pick up the remainder of Darvish's contract.

 

Edited September 10, 2019 by howieramone2

[USAFChief]

 

Spend some time on the Cubbie Board. It's pretty widespread the window is prematurely closing due to King Theo's lousy free agent signings. He would most likely take board favorite Nick Anderson even up, if the Rays would pick up the remainder of Darvish's contract.

Well, you read all kinds of stuff on a fan board, that's for sure.

[howieramone2]

 

Well, you read all kinds of stuff on a fan board, that's for sure.

No truer words ever spoken. When I need a good laugh, I often go back to the Darvish meltdown thread.

[Mike Sixel]

 

No truer words ever spoken. When I need a good laugh, I often go back to the Darvish meltdown thread.

 

He'd be the best or 2nd best pitcher on this roster right now. And, he'd be here past this year. They'll have to sign at least 2 starters, if not three, this off season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Spend some time on the Cubbie Board. It's pretty widespread the window is prematurely closing due to King Theo's lousy free agent signings. He would most likely take board favorite Nick Anderson even up, if the Rays would pick up the remainder of Darvish's contract.

 

 

No truer words ever spoken. When I need a good laugh, I often go back to the Darvish meltdown thread.

 

Opinions on Twins board = worthy of mockery

 

Opinions on Cubs board = an accurate representation of the Cubs front office

[ashbury]

Well, you read all kinds of stuff on a fan board, that's for sure.

Yeah, I heard that somewhere.

 

Source.

[Florida Loggerman]

I thought not pursuing and making a push for Marcus Stroman when he was availbe from the Jay's, was stupid on our part not to make that trade happen?  he would have been a good fit here, wouldn't have broken the bank with a trade using a couple highly rated minor league players included in the deal. missing Stroman was nuts??? now were back to who???? do we not pay stupid money to sign with us?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Mod note... let's stop the bickering please. 

[Diesel]

Zac gallen should’ve been picked up at the deadline.....

[yarnivek1972]

Just my opinion, but I don’t think there is any chance the Twins go after a big name guy. It’s just not something they’ve ever done. I don’t care about regime change, I think it’s an ownership thing. So, I’m already crossing Cole, Strasburg, and Ryu off the list. Zero chance there.

 

Hamels, Bumgarner, or Wheeler fit right into the Twins wheelhouse, IMO. They can probably be had on cheaper short-term deals and have the name recognition to satisfy the PR side (plenty of fans will be excited about Hamels/MadBum). Just enough for them to point and say, “see, it’s the biggest free agent pitcher deal of all time....please believe that we’re all in (even though we’re not) and please buy some season tickets (before you realize that we’re not).”

 

Don’t get me wrong, they should absolutely be in on the biggest free agents out there. The payroll is almost nothing. The core is young and cheap. It’s one of those proverbial, “if they don’t do it now, they never will,” type of scenario. I’m leaning towards the “never will” coming to fruition and we’ll be left massively underwhelmed like we are every year.

Jack Morris was a big name guy.

[Thrylos]

 

No chance we sign any of these guys. Never done it. Never will.

 

Never is a big world.  In 1991 the Twins signed 7 free agents.  One of them (Morris) was the highest paid free agent of the class in 1991, and a second (Davis) among the top 5.

[Thrylos]

I can see them signing Wheeler from that list.  Corey Klubel will likely be a free agent.  He has an option for $17.5 M, which I don't see the Indians picking up.  They will give him a QO instead for the same amount.  The Twins should stay away from Pineda, Gibson and Odorizzi.  They can sign someone like Jhoulys Chacin and get similar production for less $.   They need 2 pitchers better than Berrios at this point.  They can pick one as a free agent and trade for another.

[Mike Sixel]

Jack Morris was a big name guy.

26 years ago. By the one GM they've had that ever really went for it. Let's hope it happens again.

[jorgenswest]

Never is a big world. In 1991 the Twins signed 7 free agents. One of them (Morris) was the highest paid free agent of the class in 1991, and a second (Davis) among the top 5.

Strawberry signed a free agent contract that off season at a base of 5 years and 20.5 million.

 

Jack had a guarantee of 3 years and 7 million. It was less than the guarantee from the Tigers. He had the incentives to earn 11 million over 3 but that was never going to happen. If he pitched poorly he would get the 7 million. If he pitched well he had an option out so he could go get the going rate for a top starter.

 

The week he signed with the Twins, Clemens signed for over 5 million across 4 years with the Red Sox. Morris got his 5 million when he predicted out and signed with the Jays,

 

The Twins did take advantage of the end of the collusion era to get Morris on a make good one year contract while minimizing their risk. I don’t think the financial burden in that signing compares in any way to the burden of signing the top free agent this winter.

[DocBauer]

Strawberry signed a free agent contract that off season at a base of 5 years and 20.5 million.

Jack had a guarantee of 3 years and 7 million. It was less than the guarantee from the Tigers. He had the incentives to earn 11 million over 3 but that was never going to happen. If he pitched poorly he would get the 7 million. If he pitched well he had an option out so he could go get the going rate for a top starter.

The week he signed with the Twins, Clemens signed for over 5 million across 4 years with the Red Sox. Morris got his 5 million when he predicted out and signed with the Jays,

The Twins did take advantage of the end of the collusion era to get Morris on a make good one year contract while minimizing their risk. I don’t think the financial burden in that signing compares in any way to the burden of signing the top free agent this winter.

No question the market has changed, and continues to change. Morris signed a fair deal at the time then took advantage of his out and had great success with Toronto. I can't begrudge him that.

 

In fact, not long before the contacts you mentioned, the Twins actually signed Puckett to the richest contact in history, IIRC, only to be topped by Henderson shortly thereafter.

 

Funny when you reflect on those "high dollar" moves made then vs the past 25yrs or so. Historically, put in to proper context, ownership hasn't always been as penny-pinching as some like to claim. Believed or not, Terry Ryan used to openly state the FO didn't inhibit him from making moves if they made sense. But he didn't make many. He brought a lot of talent, and a lot of winning teams in his tenure, but he didn't make a lot of defining moves. (And let me state I have tremendous respect for all Ryan accomplished and all be did). The FA market, when Ryan was in charge, still seemed steep in "mega contracts" in dollars and years, as well as including the DOME DAYS that may have influenced a lack of moves.

 

Not sure I have answers, but reflection is interesting. The current FO, under the same ownership, has been quite different, albeit in Target Field, and with a change in analytics and a huge market change as a result. I think it really comes down to what makes sense. Sense in short term and long term. We have still seen HUGE contracts, but only for "blue chip" players.

 

The current FO has delved in the FA market with poor success and positive success. I have little doubt they realize they need to add a SP somewhere/somehow. I also have little doubt they will look at all of these options, examine them thoroughly, and then decide if a 30yr old option can be counted on for sustained success for 2-3yrs. If they decide not, they will go the trade route from milb surpluses and bring someone in, with a couple years of control, that they think/believe is ready to contribute and perhaps "arrive" with a few tweaks.

 

I also believe a couple of our current staff will be back. I just don't know for sure who at this point. Just too far out and too much speculation at this point.