Front Page: Winning on the Road and What It Could Mean for the Postseason

[Patrick Wozniak]

The Minnesota Twins continued their dominance on the road with an 8-2 road trip. The fact that the Twins play so much better on the road than at home is one of the more interesting characteristics of the 2019 team. This is generally not the case with most MLB teams throughout the history of baseball and has not been the case this year. If we take all MLB teams this year and compile them into one average team, teams playing at home have a record of 37-32 with teams playing away having the inverse at 32-37.There are many reasonable factors for teams playing better at home such as not having jet lag or having to play in another time zone, sleeping at home, familiarity with the home ballpark, and potentially having the team built to best succeed in the home park. Plus, the home team has the home crowd to cheer them on. So why is Minnesota an MLB best 48-24 on the road, while just 39-29 (13th overall) at home?

 

The most obvious answer is that the Twins play their home games at Target Field. While Target Field in undeniably a beautiful ball park and a great place to take in a game, it is no homer dome. In 2019, Target Field is ranked as the 21st overall ball park for run scoring and is 25th in home runs, making it one of the MLB’s worst ball parks for power hitting. In the piranha-hitting, small ball days of Twins past Target Field would be just fine, but with a team that is currently constructed to hit the cover off the ball, a stadium that suppresses home runs is a detriment to the team.

 

Taking only one season into account makes a rather small sample size and if we look at the last three seasons, Target Field has been only slightly below average as a hitter’s park. As far as home runs go, the high wall in right field makes it slightly harder on left-handed hitters. An interesting juxtaposition can be seen in switch-hitter Jorge Polanco’s splits. At Target Field Polanco has hit just three home runs batting left-handed in 206 plate appearances, while hitting five home runs in only 89 plate appearances batting right-handed. Contrast this to the road where Polanco has hit 11 home runs in 226 plate appearances as a lefty, while hitting just one home run in 96 plate appearances as a right-handed batter. Left-hand power hitters Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario have also hit more of their home runs outside of Target Field.

 

As one would expect, a team that set the all-time record for home runs hit in a season has fared much better outside of their homer-stealing stadium. While the Twins have hit 120 home runs at Target Field (one per 21.9 plate appearances), they have hit a league-leading 152 on the road (one every 18.9 plate appearances). No single Twins player embodies this trend more than Jonathan Schoop, who has hit 15 of his 21 home runs away from Target Field. The team also has the league’s best wRC+ on the road with a 123 wRC+, while posting a 113 wRC+ at home. Minnesota’s historic offense is still really good at Target Field, but it is not as elite as it is away from home.

 

When playing in stadiums that are in the top half of the league for being homer-friendly, the Twins are currently 31-16. Minnesota is even better when playing in the top run scoring stadiums in the MLB with a record of 21-8. Obviously playing in ball parks that are conducive to offense allows an offensive-oriented team like the Twins to play to their strong suit. This leads one to wonder how the Twins would fare against some of their potential postseason opponents.

 

With the New York Yankees and Houston Astros all but certain to win their divisions and very likely to hold the top two records in the A.L., the Twins are likely to be the team with the third best record, assuming they continue to hold off the Cleveland Indians. This would leave Cleveland, the Tampa Bay Rays, and the Oakland Athletics to compete for the final two wild card spots. The Twins would then face either New York or Houston in the ALDS (whoever has the second overall record) and the Twin’s opponent would hold home field advantage.

 

Here is a look at the run scoring and home run rankings of the other potential playoff teams’ stadiums. A rate of greater than one favors hitters (or 100 in the three-year factors), while a rate of under one favors pitchers. The 2019 run and home run rankings come from ESPN while the three-year ball park factors come from Baseball-Reference.

 

Download attachment: Ballparks1.png

 

Unfortunately, none of these stadiums conform very well to Minnesota’s strength as a power hitting club. Between New York and Houston, it looks like Minute Maid Park is a better fit for the Twins as it is average for run scoring and above average for home runs. The short left field dimensions could also play well for Minnesota’s right-handed hitters. The Twins also have a better overall record against Houston but would have to face Houston’s superlative starting pitching (Justin Verlander, Garrit Cole, and Zack Greinke). Of course, the Twins don’t have a sterling record of postseason success against the Yankees but New York’s starting rotation is nothing to fear this year. Plus Yankee stadium features the short porch in right field that Minnesota’s power hitters could feast on. Minnesota’s potential advantage of being a great road team might also be mitigated by the fact that Houston and New York have two of the best home winning percentages in MLB.

 

Of the potential wildcard teams (who would also have to get past either New York or Houston to face the Twins), Progressive Field is by far the most homer friendly of the bunch, but the Twins have had the most success playing at Tropicana Field against Tampa Bay. Any Twins fan will surely be elated if Minnesota ends up facing any of the potential wildcard trifecta in the postseason.

 

Once the postseason starts, all bets are off and the Twins would most likely love to play in front of the home crowd, regardless of how things have played out in the regular season. Anytime one is looking at data through the lens of a single season, the results could simply be an anomaly, but the narrative of Target Field being unfriendly to hitters seems to fit well with the suppression of the team’s power numbers at home, which naturally points to Minnesota’s success at hitter-friendly parks. As long as Minnesota continues to win, the setting in which the victories occur should matter little to Twins fans.

 

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[jz7233]

Post season is quite different from regular season. It's going to be tough to win on the road in post season. Home field advantage is very important.