Front Page: Tyler Duffey Is the Best Reliever No One Talks About

[Cooper Carlson]

I recently had a friend text me something along the lines of “The score will be 17-1 after Duffey is done with this inning” and I thought to myself “Wait, how good has Duffey been this season?” As of the end of August, Tyler Duffey has been the Twins second-best reliever behind Taylor Rogers this season. How good has he been, and why isn’t it talked about more? As a top 30 relief pitcher in the American League, Duffey is certainly making a name for himself.Tyler Duffey will be finishing off his fifth season since making his major league debut in 2015. It has definitely been a bumpy ride after a successful taste of the majors in 2015. He came back as a starter in 2016, did poorly, and was eventually moved to the bullpen for 2017 and 2018 before something finally clicked this season.

 

This front office clearly saw something in Duffey to hold onto him during the times he was struggling. The Twins brass will not hesitate to let a young pitcher go if they do not see a future with them, and Duffey has proven them right in a huge way this season.

 

There was definitely something off or something to be changed with what Duffey was doing before this season, and the first place to look is his pitch usage. Things were simplified to throwing his curveball 52% and his fastball 46% of the time. This FanGraphs pitch types graph shows the change well.

 

Download attachment: duffey pitch type.png

 

Both pitches have been outstanding, and the fastball has been key to unlocking the breaking ball even more. Duffey has touched 97 MPH this season while averaging out at 94 on the fastball, a new career high. (Thanks Wes Johnson). He is allowing just a .202 AVG and .639 OPS on the season which is equivalent to what Joey Rickard is hitting for the Orioles.

 

The curveball is the pitch he has always been known for, and he has shown it off this season for sure. Throwing it over half the time, he has allowed a .208 AVG and .608 OPS against it while generating a 14.2 swinging strike% on the pitch. A comparison for that stat line would be what Jace Peterson has done for the Orioles this season. The Orioles are awful.

 

Now let’s talk some more about the results. He currently holds a career best 2.86 ERA that ranks 26th among AL relievers. He is also striking out more players than ever before at a 30% rate and that ranks 18th in the AL. He has turned himself into a top thirty relief pitcher in the American League and most fans have no idea.

 

He has been excellent all season, and he may actually be at his best right now. Through twelve games in August, Duffey has not allowed a run while boasting a K/9 of 12.0 and allowing an OPS of just .494 so he is stepping up even more as the division race heats up.

 

To my surprise, Duffey has quietly been better than both of the relief pitchers the Twins acquired at the deadline. He leads Sergio Romo in H/9, K/9, swinging strike%, ERA, AVG against, and OPS against. Romo and Dyson are both very good relief pitchers, but Duffey may be the best of that bunch. However, Duffey has not been used in spots with as much leverage as Dyson and Romo, which seems strange especially considering those two weren’t on the Twins all season. The Twins were giving high leverage spots to Ryne Harper or Blake Parker instead.

 

Duffey is overdue for some positive appreciation because he has been excellent this season despite constant hate against the bullpen. He is the poster boy for how teams may start building their bullpen: start with two or three solid guys you can trust and then throughout the season plug in a lot of different young guys and see what works. It’s looking like the Twins may have found a bullpen weapon for the next few seasons.

 

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[blindeke]

Thanks for writing this. People crap on the bullpen a lot, but some of them have actually been good. 

[Kirbek]

Amen

[RaoulDuke]

Wasn't Duffey a closer when they drafted him?  I seem to remember he was part of the wave of college relievers the TR regime drafted to try to turn into starters.  Is he the last one of those guys left in the org now?  Jay was the biggest name because of his draft slot but there was Duffey/ Melotakis?/ someone I am forgetting/ and Burdi who they kept a reliever.   

 

As a starter he only had the + curve as a weapon, the fastball played down at lower speeds, and the change was never really there.  As a reliever the nasty curve/ mid 90s fastball combo plays well.  I wonder where he could have been now had they never messed with him being a starter, because he has certainly found something after some experience in the pen. 

[wabene]

Very nice to see some pitching development from our coaching staff.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Maybe when/if Duffey gets more high leverage opportunities (and produces positive results) then he will get more recognition. Your friend bashing on Duffey probably remembers a high leverage or two breakdown from Duffey and not much else.

[BeantownTwinsFan]

I hope the 70% of TD posters that spell his name ‘Duffy’ appreciate this write up as much as I do

[Vanimal46]

Maybe that's the key for Duffey to keep pitching well, to not talk about it. In that case...

 

Shh! Don't ruin this!

[MMMordabito]

The emergence of Duffey and May has been a really nice add to the late season push. I want to see them in high leverage against Boston, Cleveland and Washington to really feel confident.

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It’s too bad WPA isn’t in the fangraphs splits tool. It seems like Duffey has gotten Hildenberger’s fireman role. My assumption his .83 WPA on the season has been climbing at a faster rate since July 1

[jmlease1]

I'm a fan of Duffy. a 2-pitch combo can work just fine in relief, and since he never made another pitch really go this is a better option for him. He's got the velocity on the fastball, and the curve is excellent. Hes settling in and doing great and I think he's a terrific option for the back end

[Dantes929]

I am fine with Duffey being a reliever and think his stuff plays pretty well there.   I disagree with the idea of his stuff not playing well as a starter.   He was really good in 2015.  Good command of the fastball and a really good, sharp breaking curve ball that was thrown at different speeds and angles.    If he had continued to throw that well I believe he would have continued to succeed.      If you can judge fairly accurately what you see on tv, in 2016 he did not have the same command as his fastball and his curveball was not as sharp.    Kind of like Scot Diamond.   Its not like the opposition figured him out.    His stuff and command just wasn't as good.    HIs mph has certainly improved lately which certainly helped.    Pitchers aren't just static performers.     Confidence, maturity, and experience matters.     Those things come and go.   Right now they are here for Duffey.

[jimbo92107]

 

Wasn't Duffey a closer when they drafted him?  I seem to remember he was part of the wave of college relievers the TR regime drafted to try to turn into starters.  Is he the last one of those guys left in the org now?  Jay was the biggest name because of his draft slot but there was Duffey/ Melotakis?/ someone I am forgetting/ and Burdi who they kept a reliever.   

 

As a starter he only had the + curve as a weapon, the fastball played down at lower speeds, and the change was never really there.  As a reliever the nasty curve/ mid 90s fastball combo plays well.  I wonder where he could have been now had they never messed with him being a starter, because he has certainly found something after some experience in the pen. 

That reminds me...Could a guy like Duffey have another shot at being a starter? Wes Johnson's advanced coaching techniques have Duffey burning the zone at mid- to high-90's now. Duffey has become a power pitcher with a dyno curve, rather than a curveball guy with a so-so heater. Could he build himself up to throw that heat for 6 innings every 5 days? 

 

Adventures for later...

[goulik]

 

That reminds me...Could a guy like Duffey have another shot at being a starter? Wes Johnson's advanced coaching techniques have Duffey burning the zone at mid- to high-90's now. Duffey has become a power pitcher with a dyno curve, rather than a curveball guy with a so-so heater. Could he build himself up to throw that heat for 6 innings every 5 days? 

 

Adventures for later...

You need 3-4 pitches to be a starter and he has just two that work for him. No, I think he has found his professional home and starting is in the rear view mirror.

[howieramone2]

I agree. If it's not broken, don't fix it.