Buxton Has Setback

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Can we trade him for another Squirrel? Toughen up man, I hope he doesn't walk on ice in the Winter here.....

Buxton is back with the team in Chicago, as of today. Doesn’t mean he’ll be on the field imminently, but he’s with the team doing Twins things again.

[Dantes929]

 

Learns what?

 

The Twins are 57-25 with Buxton and 23-26 without him.

 

It would be great if he could play 150 games but if he plays 100 the Twins are still coming up ahead, no?

 

Perhaps its fans who need to learn.

I believe that is the logic fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc.   The Twins were 57-25 with him, not because of him.     My favorite player.   I hope he gets backk within the next couple weeks.

[ewen21]

Learns what?

 

The Twins are 57-25 with Buxton and 23-26 without him.

 

It would be great if he could play 150 games but if he plays 100 the Twins are still coming up ahead, no?

 

Perhaps its fans who need to learn.

Learns how to hit better and not knock himself out multiple times during the seasonqaaqq. He does no one any good on the bench trying to make plays he has very little chance of making. Most off he's on a path to a short career if he doesn't reconcile with what the heck is starting to happen.

 

As far as the record with and without him goes you can draw your own conclusions there. I'm not convinced that is the true indicator of his value

[Doomtints]

 

I believe that is the logic fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc.   The Twins were 57-25 with him, not because of him.     My favorite player.   I hope he gets backk within the next couple weeks.

 

New to the thread? What's the fallacy for wanting to cut the guy and calling him worthless in spite of his great performance this year?

 

By the by, there are plenty of top defensive teams who won championships, and none of the top home running hitting teams have one. I have been saying for a long time this year that the Twins need to play defense if they want to go deep in the playoffs, it's a shame that so many people think hitting dingers will alone will get it done.

[Platoon]

The question isn't really if the Twins a better team when Buxton plays. That seems evident. And middle defense is extremely important. And his is elite. The real question is at what point does his absence negate his presence. There is a point, but I don't think it's known yet. But the poster who mentioned this constant abuse of his body will shorten his career has a good point. There is validity to whether trading an oft injured Buxton for a #1 SP with some contract control is a good idea. When the Sondegaard matter came up I guess I wouldn't have done it. And still probably wouldn't. I think Buxton can be that good. But another year of this changes that equation completely.

[yarnivek1972]

I don’t think anyone trades a legit controllable # 1 for Buxton because of the injury history. Not straight up. Pitching is so scarce. And while Buxton does play elite level defense, how many outs does he make that an average centerfielder doesn’t? 20-30? How many of those change the outcome of a game? 3-4? A legit #1 is going to get his team probably 6-7 wins that an average pitcher would not.

[Dantes929]

 

New to the thread? What's the fallacy for wanting to cut the guy and calling him worthless in spite of his great performance this year?

 

By the by, there are plenty of top defensive teams who won championships, and none of the top home running hitting teams have one. I have been saying for a long time this year that the Twins need to play defense if they want to go deep in the playoffs, it's a shame that so many people think hitting dingers will alone will get it done.

Huh?    Are you lumping me or my comment with any of that?  Who called him worthless?  Who thinks hitting home runs alone will get it done?       He's my favorite player and I have always been a defense value guy..   Twins are definitely better with him but they are not 57-25 with him 23-26 without him better.   There are other players that affect those outcomes.     He's not a 64 WAR per season player..... Who thinks hitting home runs alone will get it done?     By the by, playoffs are won in every way possible.    Home runs, average, OBP, defense, base running, walks, starting pitching, relief pitching, ump's calls and manager's decisions.    Deficiencies in one area can be compensated for in others in a short series.   It is a fallacy that offenses don't win championships.   4 years ago the Royals won with great defense, great relief, little power but still a high scoring offense.   Three years ago the Cubs had the top defense but were third in offense.   Two years ago Houson had the top offense and was 2nd in home runs.   They were 11th in run prevention.   Last year Boston had the top offense and were 8th in run prevention.    87 Twins were 21st in ERA but overcame it in the playoffs.    Every part of the game is important.   There is no definitive single common thread.  

[Old Twins Cap]

Buck is a very fun player to root for.

 

And that's all I've done for the last number of years.

 

Every game, every boxscore, all I look at is Buxton. Because if Buxton succeeds, the Twins thrive.

 

C'mon Buck, get back out there and run something down for us.

[yarnivek1972]

Buck is a very fun player to root for.

 

And that's all I've done for the last number of years.

 

Every game, every boxscore, all I look at is Buxton. Because if Buxton succeeds, the Twins thrive.

 

C'mon Buck, get back out there and run something down for us.

Just not a wall.

[ewen21]

I don’t think anyone trades a legit controllable # 1 for Buxton because of the injury history. Not straight up. Pitching is so scarce. And while Buxton does play elite level defense, how many outs does he make that an average centerfielder doesn’t? 20-30? How many of those change the outcome of a game? 3-4? A legit #1 is going to get his team probably 6-7 wins that an average pitcher would not.

There isn't anything so complex about it. MLB centerfielders historically have averaged less than three putouts a game and the vast majority of those are routine plays. Furthermore, making great plays in the field isn't unique to Buxton. How many plays does he make that no one else could make? Not many. Possibly only a couple a year?

 

He doesn't have an S on his chest out there on the field. He's a great glove but people get carried away with how much the defense of one outfielder matters in this case.

 

Buxton would be more valuable if he were an average fielding hitting over .300

[bighat]

 

There isn't anything so complex about it. MLB centerfielders historically have averaged less than three putouts a game and the vast majority of those are routine plays. Furthermore, making great plays in the field isn't unique to Buxton. How many plays does he make that no one else could make? Not many. Possibly only a couple a year?

He doesn't have an S on his chest out there on the field. He's a great glove but people get carried away with how much the defense of one outfielder matters in this case.

Buxton would be more valuable if he were an average fielding hitting over .300

 

Agreed. Those who claim "BUT HIS DEFENSE" are assuming that Buxton is somehow saving 1-2 runs per game. This is a fantasy. We want to believe it, because we are Buxton fans and Twins fans. But that doesn't make it so. Buxton is not a hockey goalie.

 

That said, what's impressed me the most this year is that his bat has come around. I'm totally fine with him batting .264, among the league leaders in doubles and steals. If you combine those stats with his above average defense, you've got yourself a nice starting outfielder. And at this point, that's all we should hope for with Buxton.

 

Polanco is younger than Buxton and has accomplished far more than Buxton has if you compare their careers. It's time to admit that Buxton will probably never live up to the hype, and we should be happy if we can get a few injury-free years of solid ball from him. Just like many here, he's probably my favorite player to root for. But we have to start adjusting our expectations, and face the reality that he might not be that special after all.

[Number3]

 

Trade him to the Mayo Clinic for whatever they can get.

I hate to say it but there is possibly more truth to this than you intended. Snake bit, injury prone, maybe even a little fragile for his speed and body make up. Again, he is still young. Getting older won't help. Hopefully he will get over this latest episode and learn to play within himself. Problem is, his best asset is speed.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Learns what?

 

The Twins are 57-25 with Buxton and 23-26 without him.

 

It would be great if he could play 150 games but if he plays 100 the Twins are still coming up ahead, no?

 

Perhaps its fans who need to learn.

I'm curious to know the team record is with other players as well. Do you know how I can find that stat?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

There isn't anything so complex about it. MLB centerfielders historically have averaged less than three putouts a game and the vast majority of those are routine plays. Furthermore, making great plays in the field isn't unique to Buxton. How many plays does he make that no one else could make? Not many. Possibly only a couple a year?

He doesn't have an S on his chest out there on the field. He's a great glove but people get carried away with how much the defense of one outfielder matters in this case.

Buxton would be more valuable if he were an average fielding hitting over .300

Agreed. Those who claim "BUT HIS DEFENSE" are assuming that Buxton is somehow saving 1-2 runs per game. This is a fantasy. We want to believe it, because we are Buxton fans and Twins fans. But that doesn't make it so. Buxton is not a hockey goalie.

I respectfully disagree. If we watch games and keep in mind the fly balls normal outfielders don’t quite get to, and then replay the innings as if Buxton did get to those fly balls, the runs can add up in a hurry. Maybe not always, but much more often than you are giving credit, I would bet.

 

I played this game with myself late last season. The Twins were playing Kansas City. Someone on the Royals, with two outs, hit a shallow fly ball to right center. Jake Cave was unable to reach it and it landed for a hit. The Royals went on to score 3 runs that inning.

 

It’s unknown if Buxton would have reached that particular ball. Some in the game thread disagreed. But I think he would have. Catching that one batted ball would have ended the inning and saved the next three runs. You could argue just that single hit was worth 3 runs.

 

That was just one instance. Sure, a hit is a hit, and just one baserunner, but I think you are underestimating the value of recording an out and getting to the end of an inning sooner.

 

I’d be happy to open a separate thread and track this with you for this Detroit series, if you like!

[Jham]

I respectfully disagree. If we watch games and keep in mind the fly balls normal outfielders don’t quite get to, and then replay the innings as if Buxton did get to those fly balls, the runs can add up in a hurry. Maybe not always, but much more often than you are giving credit, I would bet.

 

I played this game with myself late last season. The Twins were playing Kansas City. Someone on the Royals, with two outs, hit a shallow fly ball to right center. Jake Cave was unable to reach it and it landed for a hit. The Royals went on to score 3 runs that inning.

 

It’s unknown if Buxton would have reached that particular ball. Some in the game thread disagreed. But I think he would have. Catching that one batted ball would have ended the inning and saved the next three runs. You could argue just that single hit was worth 3 runs.

 

That was just one instance. Sure, a hit is a hit, and just one baserunner, but I think you are underestimating the value of recording an out and getting to the end of an inning sooner.

 

I’d be happy to open a separate thread and track this with you for this Detroit series, if you like!

We looked at record with and without. What about team runs against with and without?

[Number3]

Guess what. Only time will resolve this entire discussion. We can assume that Buxton will be back in the Twins lineup pretty soon. I hope before the Cleveland series so he can get a couple of games under his belt. After he comes back its pretty simple. How will he perform and for how long before its back to the IL. Best answers are: Great and a long time. Maybe well into the 2020 season? If the answers are Average and back on the IL in September, Buxton cannot be the Twins solution for center field.

[Dantes929]

 

I respectfully disagree. If we watch games and keep in mind the fly balls normal outfielders don’t quite get to, and then replay the innings as if Buxton did get to those fly balls, the runs can add up in a hurry. Maybe not always, but much more often than you are giving credit, I would bet.

I played this game with myself late last season. The Twins were playing Kansas City. Someone on the Royals, with two outs, hit a shallow fly ball to right center. Jake Cave was unable to reach it and it landed for a hit. The Royals went on to score 3 runs that inning.

It’s unknown if Buxton would have reached that particular ball. Some in the game thread disagreed. But I think he would have. Catching that one batted ball would have ended the inning and saved the next three runs. You could argue just that single hit was worth 3 runs.

That was just one instance. Sure, a hit is a hit, and just one baserunner, but I think you are underestimating the value of recording an out and getting to the end of an inning sooner.

I’d be happy to open a separate thread and track this with you for this Detroit series, if you like!

I think its a little like relievers.   You really only notice their bad outings.    Here you notice when he would have caught balls others would not have but don't notice all the games where that doesn't happen.      Then you have to consider in a best case scenario that even if he caught a ball the others missed and saved 3 runs many times it saves no runs or fewer runs and that statistically it takes about 10 runs to make a 1 game difference.    I get it though.   Many years back I watched the Rays sweep us at home and was pretty convinced that outfield defense was the difference in all three games.    Rays were getting to balls I didn't think they had a chance at and we were not getting to balls that should have easily been outs.   The difference there was our outfield defense was really bad and theirs was really good.  Replacement left fielder probably would have made more of a difference over Willingham than Buxton makes over Cave.   Did the Royals win that game?   I would like to see a separate thread tracking it.     I once watched a series with the similar goal to see how many runs Mauer contributed to without getting credit for a run scored or an RBI.    I picked the right series because it was a lot.    I don;'t pretend that it was representative  of the whole season though.

[ashbury]

I'm curious to know the team record is with other players as well. Do you know how I can find that stat?

I only know how to do it one player at a time: for each, you can go to their baseball-reference.com "game log" page for 2019 and scroll down to the end of the list.

 

Kepler's for example:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=keplema01&t=b&year=2019

The team's 75-46 when he plays. Subtract that from the team's 82-51 record, and they are 7-5 when he's out.

 

On that page, you can sort on the Innings column, if you want to manually weed out (or focus on) the times where only a partial game is played - Max is 4-2 in games where he comes in during the game.

 

For most players on the team, you end up with Small Sample Size, so the value is questionable. The value for Buxton is questionable too, but it's a cherry-picker's delight, and I for one am continually delighted by it.

[ewen21]

He puts do much emphasis on his daredevil-like persona and I don't think he can help it. He thinks he's helping the team when he runs into a wall (even if he doesn't get the ball).

 

I've said this before and I will say it again. Some of the best defensive outfielders in history made plays look easy. I heard an oldtimer once say that Joe DiMaggio never dove for a ball. I've also seen brilliant outfielders like Gary Pettis and Devon White manage to be great and not hurl themselves around recklessly.

 

Torii Hunter took crazy chances here and there but often times that was when the game was on the line. Hunter was also physically different and he didn't have migraine/concussion concerns.

 

Finally, in 2017 (he won't have another year like that) he had 26 defensive runs saved. Basically he saved the Twins a run once a week when he was at his very best. I don't know how anyone can cite this year's W-L record with and without him and pass that off as gospel. I think he brings a lot of value with his love but at the same time I feel it's grossly overstated here on occasion

[obtusebanter]

I'll just chime in that the man got 44 XBHs in 295 PAs. Slugging like that is what got his OPS up a 100 points this year. That good record when Buck plays don't just reflect his D.

[ewen21]

 

I respectfully disagree. If we watch games and keep in mind the fly balls normal outfielders don’t quite get to, and then replay the innings as if Buxton did get to those fly balls, the runs can add up in a hurry. Maybe not always, but much more often than you are giving credit, I would bet.

I played this game with myself late last season. The Twins were playing Kansas City. Someone on the Royals, with two outs, hit a shallow fly ball to right center. Jake Cave was unable to reach it and it landed for a hit. The Royals went on to score 3 runs that inning.

It’s unknown if Buxton would have reached that particular ball. Some in the game thread disagreed. But I think he would have. Catching that one batted ball would have ended the inning and saved the next three runs. You could argue just that single hit was worth 3 runs.

That was just one instance. Sure, a hit is a hit, and just one baserunner, but I think you are underestimating the value of recording an out and getting to the end of an inning sooner.

I’d be happy to open a separate thread and track this with you for this Detroit series, if you like!

According to FanGraphs, Buxton has 10 defensive runs saved in 686 innings.  Breaking that down further it amounts to one run saved every 68.8 innings. Even if plays everyday that isn't even a run a week.

 

I am not saying he isn't a super-talented centerfielder.  What I am saying is one man in centerfield just doesn't get a whole lot of opportunities to make a difference. As I said earlier, historical data says that centerfielders make just under 3 putouts a game on average.  For him be able to make the kind of impact you're talking about balls would need to be hit to miniscule zones on the field where Byron Buxton can make catches most other centerfielders cannot.  That isn't anything that can be controlled and it isn't anything that happens with regularity

[Dantes929]

 

According to FanGraphs, Buxton has 10 defensive runs saved in 686 innings.  Breaking that down further it amounts to one run saved every 68.8 innings. Even if plays everyday that isn't even a run a week.

 

I am not saying he isn't a super-talented centerfielder.  What I am saying is one man in centerfield just doesn't get a whole lot of opportunities to make a difference. As I said earlier, historical data says that centerfielders make just under 3 putouts a game on average.  For him be able to make the kind of impact you're talking about balls would need to be hit to miniscule zones on the field where Byron Buxton can make catches most other centerfielders cannot.  That isn't anything that can be controlled and it isn't anything that happens with regularity

686 innings is less than half a full season.    If he were to stay healthy and do it over a full season that would be about 20 runs saved.    I just pointed out statistically that is worth about 2 games a season.   However, it is certainly conceivable that those 20 runs saved don't move the needle at all while also being conceivable that 20 runs saved could make the difference between winning and losing in 10 or more games.   For example,  Adrianza hit a solo homer earlier in the year.   Statistically that doesn't amount to much but reality is that it was the only run off Verlander in a 1-0 win.    I have argued that Buxton wasn't responsible for the 57-25 record because while the Twins were winning,EVERYONE was so stinking hot including starters and relievers.    However, I won't downplay what 20 runs saved might mean to a season as well as what it might mean to how a pitcher feels about his defense.

[Dantes929]

 

According to FanGraphs, Buxton has 10 defensive runs saved in 686 innings.  Breaking that down further it amounts to one run saved every 68.8 innings. Even if plays everyday that isn't even a run a week.

 

 

Such is the nature of baseball.   The difference between a .300 hitter and a .255 hitter is about 1 hit per week or 1 hit every 22 at bats.   That's not a run per  week.   Just a hit per week.    That puts a run per week into a little perspective.

[Platoon]

This may be a moot point. I listened to a podcast this am with Glenn Perkins er al, and they discussed the chances the Twins win the WS. The general consensus is that pitching and defense are overrated, and that if you score 8 runs per game, the pitching and defense make no difference. I actually had to quit listening.

[Mike Sixel]

This may be a moot point. I listened to a podcast this am with Glenn Perkins er al, and they discussed the chances the Twins win the WS. The general consensus is that pitching and defense are overrated, and that if you score 8 runs per game, the pitching and defense make no difference. I actually had to quit listening.

If they score 8 runs a game, they would likely win it all..... But, umm. Ya.

[Platoon]

That seemed oblivious to the point that if you pitch and defend well you won't give up 8 per game. I don't mind a discussion on the merits of different aspects of the game, but this bordered on blithering!

[Mike Sixel]

"if the team scores more runs per game than anyone in history, it mostly doesn't matter how many they give up" is some seriously awesome analysis!

[ewen21]

 

This may be a moot point. I listened to a podcast this am with Glenn Perkins er al, and they discussed the chances the Twins win the WS. The general consensus is that pitching and defense are overrated, and that if you score 8 runs per game, the pitching and defense make no difference. I actually had to quit listening.

There is your problem right there.  Why subject yourself to a Glen Perkins podcast?  I mean really

[ashbury]

There is your problem right there.  Why subject yourself to a Glen Perkins podcast?  I mean really

I appreciate that Perkins has always been analytically inclined. That, however, doesn't mean he is capable of doing actual, valuable, analysis.

[Doomtints]

It's interesting how quickly people forgot how the Twins played in the early Terry Ryan II years after the starting outfield was traded away. The Twins could only win games when Aaron Hicks was out there, and that wasn't because Hicks was hitting the ball. He was simply the only person the team had who could play defense.

 

If that era did not teach us the importance of CF defense, it is utterly hopeless that we will ever learn anything. Personally I got sick of watching opposing teams beat the Twins by hitting chip shots all day long and I know you can't overvalue having the best CF in the game out there.