Thinking Through the Potential Twins ALDS Roster

[ashbury]

This, I think, is the toughest argument against Adrianza. With the positional versatility of Marwin and Arraez, Jake Cave is probably the guy who should get Adrianza's spot as a late game pinch runner/defensive replacement. Even still, his value as a defensive replacement is almost nothing if Buxton, Kepler and Rosario are all healthy and in the lineup.

I don't see how you leave Adrianza off. You have to be prepared for an injury during each series. In CF we have Kepler to slide over to there when need be. You can view Arraez or Marwin as emergency SS, but for the remainder of a series I think you want a SS with a better track record than those. (And I know Marwin's previous manager has extolled him as a fine SS, but for all his versatility the current manager has played him there for all of 9 innings this season.)

[yarnivek1972]

I forgot about him. That said, he has given up four home runs in 50 innings in AAA with a 5.1 BB/9. The K numbers are now just decent and not elite. I think they're more likely to go with a Thorpe or Smeltzer in that role, even if it is new to them.

 

But interesting to think of him. I'd be terrified of his appearances but he has been around.

You can’t look at his entire slate of numbers. He isn’t really being used as a loogy in the minors. He’s holding AAA LHB to a .560 OPS, although his walk total to lefties is definitely higher than I would like to see.

 

As I said, he hasn’t had a great deal of MLB experience, but he’s held MLB LHB to a .501 OPS. Bottom line is that he’s just about unhittable for lefties.

[yarnivek1972]

I don't see how you leave Adrianza off. You have to be prepared for an injury during each series. In CF we have Kepler to slide over to there when need be. You can view Arraez or Marwin as emergency SS, but for the remainder of a series I think you want a SS with a better track record than those. (And I know Marwin's previous manager has extolled him as a fine SS, but for all his versatility the current manager has played him there for all of 9 innings this season.)

You do realize that the IL is in play in the postseason?

 

Gone are the days “if a guy gets hurt, you just do without”. If someone gets hurt, you can replace him for the next game. I’m not sure when this started. Early 2000’s maybe. It was definitely a factor in the 1991 postseason. Joe Carter sprained his ankle and was limited to DH (and basically an automatic out) in the ALCS. Also, if the DL had been available it is extremely likely that Gene Larkin would have not been on the World Series roster.

 

That said, I’m not advocating leaving Adrianza off the roster. He’s the best defender the Twins have on the left side and he’s a decent enough hitter. I’m not sure there is anyone he would pinch hit for, but still.

[JW24]

 

I don't see how you leave Adrianza off. You have to be prepared for an injury during each series. In CF we have Kepler to slide over to there when need be. You can view Arraez or Marwin as emergency SS, but for the remainder of a series I think you want a SS with a better track record than those. (And I know Marwin's previous manager has extolled him as a fine SS, but for all his versatility the current manager has played him there for all of 9 innings this season.)

I 100% agree

[ashbury]

You do realize that the IL is in play in the postseason?

Nope. Apparently I'm living in the past.

[JW24]

 

You do realize that the IL is in play in the postseason?

Gone are the days “if a guy gets hurt, you just do without”. If someone gets hurt, you can replace him for the next game. I’m not sure when this started. Early 2000’s maybe. It was definitely a factor in the 1991 postseason. Joe Carter sprained his ankle and was limited to DH (and basically an automatic out) in the ALCS. Also, if the DL had been available it is extremely likely that Gene Larkin would have not been on the World Series roster.

What if Polanco gets hit by a pitch in his first at bat of game 5 (or 7) and is forced to leave the game? Hope Marwin or Arraez is able to play the most challenging infield position at a high level for 9 innings in a do-or-die game?

[Only Here in Negative]

 

Would folks consider Wade (if healthy) or the forgotten man - Nick Gordon - as 2 guys currently on the 40 man?  Any reads on Gordon's speed/baserunning?

 

Neither is a big base stealer in the minors, though Gordon is more so. Another issue is I imagine that the jump between stealing in the minors and pros is steep too. I'm not sure I want a guy trying it for the first time in the playoffs. Might work better as a pinch runner though.

 

Ian Miller has some huge SB seasons in the minors and is 27 in AAA. He's a guy who could take Gonsalves' place and then readily be DFA'd in the offseason. I'd probably pick him over everyone as he could also be a defensive OF if a starter gets hurt.

[Only Here in Negative]

 

You can’t look at his entire slate of numbers. He isn’t really being used as a loogy in the minors. He’s holding AAA LHB to a .560 OPS, although his walk total to lefties is definitely higher than I would like to see.

As I said, he hasn’t had a great deal of MLB experience, but he’s held MLB LHB to a .501 OPS. Bottom line is that he’s just about unhittable for lefties.

 

Interesting and good call on splits.

 

I wonder if guys like ROR are less useful in the postseason though. You can obviously bring him in against the Bryce Harpers who aren't going to get pinch hit for but if the splits are that stark, maybe you worry that they're going to go get the RH off that expanded bench and all of a sudden you've got a bad AAA guy going in the postseason. Guess it depends on the quality of the lefties you're facing?

[Only Here in Negative]

 

I don't see how you leave Adrianza off. You have to be prepared for an injury during each series. In CF we have Kepler to slide over to there when need be. You can view Arraez or Marwin as emergency SS, but for the remainder of a series I think you want a SS with a better track record than those. (And I know Marwin's previous manager has extolled him as a fine SS, but for all his versatility the current manager has played him there for all of 9 innings this season.)

 

You convinced me. Screw the 13th pitcher. Keep Adrianza for SS defense. Probably won't play but that's what you want.

[woolywoolhouse]

Is Kyle Gibson fast? He looks fast. I remember the 1987 ALCS; Sparky Anderson had Jack Morris (the game after he started) pinch run with the Tigers down a run in the bottom of the 8th. Morris scored the tying run (on a Pat Sheridan homerun that also scored the winning run) but it was some outside-the-box thinking... I bet Sergio Romo could pinch-run if asked. 

[yarnivek1972]

Is Kyle Gibson fast? He looks fast. I remember the 1987 ALCS; Sparky Anderson had Jack Morris (the game after he started) pinch run with the Tigers down a run in the bottom of the 8th. Morris scored the tying run (on a Pat Sheridan homerun that also scored the winning run) but it was some outside-the-box thinking... I bet Sergio Romo could pinch-run if asked.

Based on (perceived at least) athleticism, I would guess the only pitcher who is a candidate to pinch run is Berrios.

[Mike Sixel]

I hope they don't use a pitcher as a base runner......It's not worth injury risk.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I would use a pitcher to PR, I just don't know how fast or athletic our pitchers are. I think I would trust Gibson or Berrios to not trip over their shoelaces or need oxygen after a 90 foot sprint, but not sure.

[yarnivek1972]

I hope they don't use a pitcher as a base runner......It's not worth injury risk.

I only remember the Twins doing it once. With Pat Mahomes I believe in an extra inning game. By that time, he was more suspect than prospect.

 

Be a bit different doing it with arguably your best starting pitcher.

[rkevin]

I think what gets this team to the playoffs is what they should stick with in the playoffs. To win 3 of 5 games this team will need to score 6+ runs in those wins. We will need the offense, so 11 pitchers and 14 position players. Besides the starting nine of Garver, Cron, Arraez, Polanco, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and Cruz, we need Castro, Schoop, Gonzalez, Cave and Adrianza available. Sorry, Astudillo is out.

[SwainZag]

 

I'm not taking Sano out of a tie game for someone who is only marginally faster than him.

Adrianza is not fleet of foot. If he has value on the playoff roster, it's as a defensive replacement.

 

He is certainly quicker than Sano or Cron though.  You are really leaving Sano at 2nd with less than 2 outs as the go ahead run in the 9th?  That makes no sense, go for the W.

[USAFChief]

 

He is certainly quicker than Sano or Cron though.  You are really leaving Sano at 2nd with less than 2 outs as the go ahead run in the 9th?  That makes no sense, go for the W.

How often does the difference in speed between Adrianza and either of those two even come into play?

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He is certainly quicker than Sano or Cron though.  You are really leaving Sano at 2nd with less than 2 outs as the go ahead run in the 9th?  That makes no sense, go for the W.

Actually, I thought Adrianza's sprint speed was slightly slower than Sano.

 

He's really slow for his position and defensive ability.

[Mr. Brooks]

He is certainly quicker than Sano or Cron though. You are really leaving Sano at 2nd with less than 2 outs as the go ahead run in the 9th? That makes no sense, go for the W.

I didn't say I wouldn't pinch run for him. Just not with Adrianza.

He's not enough of a difference to be worth the risk of taking Sano out of a tie game.

 

Again, Adrianza isn't fast. I know the perception is middle infielder = fast, but in this case it doesn't.

 

How often will Adrianza score on a ball that Sano wouldn't? Maybe 1 in 100?

 

This isn't a tortoise versus hare situation, it's tortoise versus another tortoise.