Front Page: The Hazy Future of Fernando Romero

[bighat]

 

You nicely articulated the frustration of Romero.

 

I've always gone the old school route of not giving up on a potential #3 starter or higher (sending to the bullpen) until you are sure it won't work out.

 

I kind of feel that way also. I've always viewed bullpen guys as "failed starters" - even when I know that technically, that's not the truth anymore.

 

But in May of 2018 Romero really put up some numbers - as a starter - that for me, are still hard to ignore.

 

vs. Toronto: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5K

@ STL: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 9K

@LAA: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 6K

@SEA: 7 IP, 5H, 2ER, 7K

 

He had one disastrous outing (@KC) but aside from that, none of his "clunkers" looked especially terrible - or any worse than, say, a typical Martin Perez or Kyle Gibson outing.

 

The Twins seemed, for some reason, to completely disregard a good portion of his track record as a starter because they WANTED him to be a good bullpen arm. Now here we are, looking at an empty rotation in 2020 and you have to wonder why they were so quick to give up on a guy who not only has great potential, but has proven at the big league level that he can perform as an SP.

[Vanimal46]

I hope they stretch him out to start again. I hated that he was moved to the pen in the first place.

[Thrylos]

.417 BABIP in the majors, .329 in the minors this season has some to do with it, plus his injury.  Small print, but he has a career best in K/9 this season in AAA.  I'd give him a Mulligan this season and see if he can crack the Twins' rotation next ST.

[yarnivek1972]

I kind of feel that way also. I've always viewed bullpen guys as "failed starters" - even when I know that technically, that's not the truth anymore.

 

But in May of 2018 Romero really put up some numbers - as a starter - that for me, are still hard to ignore.

 

vs. Toronto: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5K

@ STL: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 9K

@LAA: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 6K

@SEA: 7 IP, 5H, 2ER, 7K

 

He had one disastrous outing (@KC) but aside from that, none of his "clunkers" looked especially terrible - or any worse than, say, a typical Martin Perez or Kyle Gibson outing.

 

The Twins seemed, for some reason, to completely disregard a good portion of his track record as a starter because they WANTED him to be a good bullpen arm. Now here we are, looking at an empty rotation in 2020 and you have to wonder why they were so quick to give up on a guy who not only has great potential, but has proven at the big league level that he can perform as an SP.

Adalberto Mejia still has better than league average numbers as a starting pitcher at the MLB level. He can’t crack a roster either. If a guy can’t get outs as a reliever, the chances of him doing so as a starter aren’t that good IMO. Romero is allowing about league average hit rate, considerably worse walk rate and slightly better than average K rate. His ERA is better than league average but his RA/G is not. The walk rate is what will hurt him the most at the MLB level. Good MLB hitters won’t swing at many pitches out of the zone.

[Otto von Ballpark]

.417 BABIP in the majors, .329 in the minors this season has some to do with it, plus his injury. Small print, but he has a career best in K/9 this season in AAA. I'd give him a Mulligan this season and see if he can crack the Twins' rotation next ST.

I don't think Romero's problems this season are due to bad BABIP luck. His MLB FIP is still 6.71, with 6 BB+HBP and 3 WP in 8 IP. And his .329 AAA BABIP is within a normal range -- he had the same mark in 2017 at AA when he was generating tons of hype as a starting pitcher. (And his AAA FIP is worse than his ERA this year.)

 

On K/9, one would expect it to improve a bit upon moving to the bullpen, so that's not all that impressive of an achievement. Especially since it appears that the 2019 International League has the highest *league* K/9 of any league he pitched in -- ever pitcher is probably getting a boost in that department -- and Romero's K% is still not a career high (his K/9 is inflated by the extra hits and walks he has allowed this year, by comparison to K%).

 

Not to say he is hopeless or anything, but there isn't really a way to spin 2019 as anything other than a struggle for him.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

Not to say he is hopeless or anything, but there isn't really a way to spin 2019 as anything other than a struggle for him.

 

Quick:  Who would you rather give a chance in 2020?  Or even in September of 2019?  Romero or Hildenberger?   Same deal.  Same struggles.  Different potential

 

 

Edited August 28, 2019 by Thrylos

[DocBauer]

First of all, I still believe in Romero's arm and potential. At the beginning of 2018 he was not only a highly regarded prospect, but one of the Twins top prospects. He absolutely flashed as a SP in 2018 but then struggled some. The biggest issue, IMO, was not affording him more opportunity in the lost season of 2018.

 

But, that's over and done.

 

Considering need, roster crunch, lack of options, I believe the Twins will make an off season trade for a quality SP with control to compete with Berrios to hold a spot near the top of the rotation. Right now, this moment, I can't tell you who that guy is. The Twins have so much depth of milb talent, I believe they could do so without moving Lewis, Kirilloff or Graterol. They have several top 4-20-30 candidates that include INF, C, OF,and SP options for a rebuilding team. Said team would, IMO, fully embrace Romero as a 5th player, without options, that could comfortably roster him and work with him.

 

Such a trade would hurt, but not deplete the system, and potentially reward both teams. I've always said, if it hurts, then it's a fair value to both teams.

[howieramone2]

 

Can we EVER trade a player, either a prospect or a rental, at their peak value? Another blue chipper with almost no value. With no options, he can't even be shuttled. If he couldn't be shuttled this year, there's no reason to think he can stick next season without clogging the shuttle. Kohl Stewart is more valuable. He's never thrown as hard as advertised. His k/9 looks ok because his whip is pedestrian. His K% never matched the hype. He's very hittable and doesn't miss enough bats. His debut was amazing. Don't know what's happened to his control since.

Pressly, Diaz, and Davis.

[Jham]

Pressly, Diaz, and Davis.

Pressley feels like a troll.. but he was neither a prospect or a rental and certainly not at peak value. His peripherals screamed closer and we traded him as an underperforming overused set up guy.

 

Diaz was a fringe prospect if a prospect at all. But possibly

 

Davis might be the most popular player in San Fran, and he's not even there yet. I'm guessing they could trade him this winter and get more than Dyson back. I don't think prospect lists can ignore his progress. In short, he's not at peak value.

 

Hu was traded at peak value I guess.

 

Anyway, I think to get something back, you have to be willing to give something. But if the guys we traded at "peak value" increase their value after we trade them, I think you're missing my point. Let's hold on to the Pressleys and maybe a Davis and trade the Arcias, Jays, Stewarts, and Gordons.

 

A reclamation project who can't be optioned has almost no value in MLB to anyone but a bottom barrel team who won't want to trade prospects.

[Riverbrian]

 

Can we EVER trade a player, either a prospect or a rental, at their peak value? 

 

You must also be hard on your stock broker. 

[SwainZag]

 

Pressley feels like a troll.. but he was neither a prospect or a rental and certainly not at peak value. His peripherals screamed closer and we traded him as an underperforming overused set up guy.

Diaz was a fringe prospect if a prospect at all. But possibly

Davis might be the most popular player in San Fran, and he's not even there yet. I'm guessing they could trade him this winter and get more than Dyson back. I don't think prospect lists can ignore his progress. In short, he's not at peak value.

Hu was traded at peak value I guess.

Anyway, I think to get something back, you have to be willing to give something. But if the guys we traded at "peak value" increase their value after we trade them, I think you're missing my point. Let's hold on to the Pressleys and maybe a Davis and trade the Arcias, Jays, Stewarts, and Gordons.

A reclamation project who can't be optioned has almost no value in MLB to anyone but a bottom barrel team who won't want to trade prospects.

 

Easy to say in hindsight.  There was plenty of talk to trade Polonco, Kepler, Berrios, Buxton etc... 2-3-4 years ago too.  It's easy to point out the guys that flamed out and ignore the ones who kept getting better.  

[ewen21]

 

Imagine three years ago what the Twins could have gotten for a Romero, Gonzo, Jay and Stewart package.

Hence why I am almost always for trading prospects for proven players.

 

 

THIS in nearly every single case.  I think this organization has failed to view prospects properly.  That narrative Terry Ryan used to spew about "mortgaging the future" was, is and always shall be a crock.  If there is an area of weakness and a trade can be made for a pre-arbitration major league player then how in the world is that "mortgaging the future"?

[Danchat]

Pressley feels like a troll.. but he was neither a prospect or a rental and certainly not at peak value. His peripherals screamed closer and we traded him as an underperforming overused set up guy.

 

Diaz was a fringe prospect if a prospect at all. But possibly

 

Davis might be the most popular player in San Fran, and he's not even there yet. I'm guessing they could trade him this winter and get more than Dyson back. I don't think prospect lists can ignore his progress. In short, he's not at peak value.

 

Hu was traded at peak value I guess.

 

Anyway, I think to get something back, you have to be willing to give something. But if the guys we traded at "peak value" increase their value after we trade them, I think you're missing my point. Let's hold on to the Pressleys and maybe a Davis and trade the Arcias, Jays, Stewarts, and Gordons.

 

A reclamation project who can't be optioned has almost no value in MLB to anyone but a bottom barrel team who won't want to trade prospects.

Yeah, Diaz and Davis were traded at peak value, I’d say. Going back further, the Twins sold high on Jermaine Palacios when they shipped him out for Odorizzi. Palacios’ stock has plummeted since the trade, as he’s been stuck in the .500 OPS range for two years now.

[jimbo92107]

Twins did to Romero what they did to May, only they screwed him up BEFORE he got to the bigs. Trade him for some other team's sputtering prospect pitcher. There are lots of them around. You'll have all winter to decide. Romero needs a change of scenery, a chance to reset his pitching career in another organization with different coaching. Best organization for a guy like Romero would probably be the Rays. 

 

I wish more teams had the integrity to admit when they've screwed up a player. How many careers are floundering for that reason? 

Edited August 28, 2019 by jimbo92107

[SwainZag]

 

Twins did to Romero what they did to May, only they screwed him up BEFORE he got to the bigs. Trade him for some other team's sputtering prospect pitcher. There are lots of them around. You'll have all winter to decide. Romero needs a change of scenery, a chance to reset his pitching career in another organization with different coaching. Best organization for a guy like Romero would probably be the Rays. 

 

I wish more teams had the integrity to admit when they've screwed up a player. How many careers are floundering for that reason? 

 

What exactly did the Twins do? Move him to the bullpen?  I don't get the blaming the team.  Did Romero forget his control because he is coming out of the pen?  A good pitcher will be able to get hitters out either way.  

 

[Vanimal46]

What exactly did the Twins do? Move him to the bullpen? I don't get the blaming the team. Did Romero forget his control because he is coming out of the pen? A good pitcher will be able to get hitters out either way.

I agree he should be able to get hitters out either way. Seems like the new pitching coach messed with his mechanics to cause this loss in control. I don't know how else to explain the increase from 3 BB/9 to 5 BB/9 in 2018 to 2019.