Diving Deep Into Twins Minor League Players Developing Strongly

[twins1095]

I am really excited by the performances of a few of the Twins top minor league players/hitters this season, especially with the current group at AA.  I was curious to figure out myself exactly how Twins fans should be thinking about the following players and projecting them onto the big league roster in a few years--so I decided to write about it.  In additional posts, I may do more players because I enjoy writing these--but to start I want to highlight 3 players I think are on a strong trajectory to be above average or better contributors in the MLB shortly.  I want to call out players that are producing strongly now and also look to have high MLB ceilings and recognize their production (as opposed to the ceiling/potential of Lewis/Javier/Cavaco type players).

 

 

Alex Kirilloff

 

Kirilloff's season slash line is as follows:

 

• 284/.340/.759

Among Southern AA hitters that slash line ranks as follows:

 

• 15th in OPS and 8th in AVG 

It's possible that there's some degree of less talent than some other minor leagues, but it seems that the Eastern league pretty heavily favors pitching.  Among qualifying players, there are only 9 players with an OPS over .800 in the league (there are 10 total teams).  I think our hitters AA numbers have to be put in perspective a little bit understanding it's a tougher league--although elite hitting prospects should be able to some degree hit anywhere.

 

With the wrist/hand injury he is/was coming back from, it's not surprising that the power and overall numbers are a little bit lower, I think the important thing is that he's trending upwards and he definitely is which has been noted here in a few posts.

 

Again you would have expected an adjustment period, starting May 17th (75 out of 89 games), Kirilloff's slash line is:

 

• .300/.351/.802

That slash line among AA hitters in the Southern league would rank the following:

 

• t4th in AVG (essentially tied for 2nd there are two guys at .301 and .302), 9th in OBP, and 10th in OPS.  His .451 slugging percentage over that time would actually be 9th as well. 

His aggregate production numbers are not as alarming as I thought either.  During this stretch starting on May 17th, his per 162 game aggregate production translates to the following:

 

• 85 runs - 35 2Bs - 3 3Bs - 20 HRs - 75 RBIs w/ a 6.3 BB% and 18.9 K%. 

I think it's encouraging that coming of the wrist injury and playing in a league where offensive numbers are suppressed across the board, he's actually still putting up solid numbers.  The hit tool is definitively real and I don't think we have to worry about maybe wanting to manage our expectations with him.

 

Trevor Larnach

 

Larnach, in my opinion, has been arguably the most impressive of the Twins higher tier hitting prospects this season (other than Arraez).  Larnach has been extremely good from day 1 in the minor leagues at every level he's been at.  Some of that should have been expected as he is an older prospect to some degree (22 years old - 1 year older than Kirilloff).  I think Kirilloff might have a better pure hit tool, but Larnach has a much more advanced approach and eye at the plate.  Kirilloff may have some adjustment to make as he gets into AAA and eventually the MLB with his approach--although his hit tool is so good he may not.  Larnach on the other hand, just screams big league hitter with his 11-12% walk rate at multiple different levels (similar to Sano this season). 

 

Larnach has continued his impressive numbers since his call-up to AA with a slash line of the following over his first 36 AA games (148 plate appearances):

 

• .273/.362/.802 with an wRC+ of 136 and wOBP of .370

In the Southern AA league, that slash line ranks among qualifying players:

 

• 9th in OBP and 9th in OPS

Larnach's aggregrate numbers per 162 games at AA are as follows:

 

• 97 runs - 15 2Bs - 27 HRs - 88 RBIs - 11.5% BB% - 29.5% K%

Including Larnach's time at AAA his slash line and aggregate numbers per 162 games would be the following:

 

• .303/.376/.828/10.2% BB% - 23.2% K%
• 73 runs - 40 2Bs - 2 3Bs - 16 HRs - 85 RBIs -

At AA, he's actually produced very similarly to Kirilloff during Kirilloff's post-May 17th stretch.  They have different styles, but their OPS's are nearly identical.  The only cause for concern that I do have is that Larnach's strikeout rate has jumped up to nearly 30% after posting 16.5% and 20.5% strikeout rates at A and A+.  I think there is some evidence that Larnach is going through an adjustment period facing higher level pitching, which makes his numbers as is even more impressive.  I expect that number to fall closer to 20%.  

 

I think Larnach has very firmly planted himself in the conversation with Kirilloff and Lewis in terms of hitting prospect status.  I believe that the Twins have a big 3 instead of just Lewis/Kirilloff.  Further, I would go as far to say that I think that I could be convinced to move Larnach ahead of Lewis in terms of a ranking. 

 

Ryan Jeffers

 

Jeffers is the other pleasant surprise for me.  It's clear he can really hit.  I can't speak to where his receiving, game-calling, blocking, etc is at--but from interviews I've read and seen he's going to become at least solid at it.  He is willing to work on it and is analytically driven.  Most of what he needs on that end can be gained by practice, repetition, and experience.  We have seen with Garver that certain aspects, such as framing and receiving can definitely be taught.

 

As a hitter, Jeffers has an above average approach evidenced by a minor league career walk rate of close to 10% and a strikeout rate in the high teens/early twenties. 

 

Jeffers struggled a little bit at A+ to start the year, but still had a wRC+ of 120 and a wOBP of .341.  He definitely started slow, but was a tad unlucky.  Further, the A+ league he played is also one that is known to be extremely pitcher friendly--which is why despite a mediocre slash line his wRC+ is so far above average.  Jeffers, similar to Larnach, has now played 18 games at AA and has a slash line of the following:

 

• .288 AVG - .373 OBP - .919 OPS - 11.3 BB% - 21.3 K% - wOBP .419 - wRC+ 170

In a league that's tough for offense, Jeffers is absolutely mashing the ball. This sample size is especially too small to draw meaningful conclusions, but those numbers would rank the following among all Southeastern AA league hitters:

 

• t5th in OBP, 1st in OPS, 1st in SLG%

Again, the sample size is WAY too small, but I'll do a per 162 game projection for fun.  Jeffers aggregate numbers per 162 games are the following:

 

• 99 runs - 45 2Bs - 36 HRs - 90 RBIs

Jeffers will almost certainly regress from his current production levels, but he's had a lot of success across 3 different minor league levels as well as rookie ball.  The Twins coaches also think extremely highly of his plate approach as well as his power and run-creation abilities--he hits 4th for a Pensacola lineup that's loaded with top Twins hitting talent.  From a glance at a few box scores, the lineup that the Twins have been sending out is Kirilloff, Lewis, Larnach, Jeffers, Blankenhorn.  That may be partially due to Blankenhorn's struggles over the last month and Jeffers hot streak--but it still speaks volumes to his talent. 

 

Excluding Jeffers rookie ball stats, his current minor league career slash line (135 games) is as follows:

 

• .270 - .346 - .781 - 9 BB% - 18.7 K%
• 65 runs - 26 2Bs - 18 HRs - 67 RBIs

Per 162 games his aggregate numbers would project at:

 

• 79 runs - 32 2B - 22 HRs - 81 RBIs

 

Jeffers minor league offensive numbers thus far compare pretty similarly with Garver's minor league numbers.  His slash line does not immediately wow you, but that belies how good he's been with wRC+'s of 130, 120, and 170 at A, A+, and AA respectively.  Further, he's played in very pitching friendly leagues which also hides some of his offensive production.  At 22 as a catcher and already in AA, Jeffers just needs as much playing time as possible to get more experience behind the plate and continue to refine his approach as a hitter.  With the major league ball, I think Jeffers should project to be able to hit 30+ 2Bs, 20+ HRs, and an OBP of .340ish or potentially even a tad higher than that. 

 

The ultimate question on Jeffers ceiling will revolve around his ability to catch behind the plate.  There is not a lot of information out there now on how far along Jeffers is as in that facet of his development.  Coming into the pros, there were questions on if he could stay at the position--those seem to have been answered.  If he can make a Garver type transition to average or above average the Twins will be in very good shape at the catching position.

Assuming that Garver's improvement at the plate is for real and he continues to show his eye at the plate along with 25-30 homers per 162 games... Jeffers should allow Garver to assume a lesser catching role and more 1B/DH as he gets into his 30s. 

 

To me, because of a combination of positional value and track record of production I think Jeffers is a guy that's going to shoot up the Twins prospect lists after the season ends. In my opinion there is a strong argument that Jeffers is the Twins 6th best minor league prospect behind Kirilloff/Larnach/Lewis/Graterol/Balazovic.  He's certainly in the Twins top 10, it's hard to rank between pitchers and hitters.  I think Duran/Colina have an argument for the 6th and 7th spots as well because of their high-end stuff.  In my opinion, there is a strong argument that Jeffers should be thought of as the Twins 4th best hitting prospect behind the big 3.

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Thanks for reading!  Let me know your thoughts!

[twins1095]

Bonus Content - 

 

Brent Rooker

 

I did not include Rooker in the list above because I think he's a bit of a wildcard in terms of his future with the organization.  Due to defensive limitations, I believe that Rooker is a player that needs to have an every day or regular spot in the lineup to be successful.  I'm not sure if the Twins have that spot.  I'm not sure that the Twins would be willing to give Rooker the starting 1B job next season because due to injuries and some struggles making contact there are question marks about his ability to play at the major league level.

 

Rooker is 24 and next season timing-wise seems to make sense for a shot at major league playing time.  Could the Twins look to potentially give Rooker a shot with the fall back option being Sano at 1st, Marwin at 3rd, and some combo of Rooker/Cave/Astudillo off the bench as the backup corner OF and 1B?  

 

I think if Rooker does succeed as an MLB player, the key factor in that success or lack of success will be if the improvements he made in terms of eye at the plate this season are real.  He's always walked an above average amount (career minor league BB% over 10%), but he seemingly made meaninful improvements during the 65 games he has played at AAA this season to 12.8%.  

 

If Rooker can translate an 11-12 BB% to the major leagues, I think he's almost definitely at least an average MLB player.   For all of the issues with Rooker in terms of making consistent contact, that have been well talked about, he has always been able to get on base a lot even when he's going through stretches of a lot of strikeouts and not a lot of contact.  

 

Rooker has actually produced at a high-level offensively pretty consistently as well at every level with wRC+'s of 145, 166, 124, and 138 as well as wOBA's of .413, .415, .356. and .400.  

 

The power is very real as well.  In 235 games outside of rookie ball Rooker has the following aggregate stats and slash line:

 

• .265 -.360 -.853
• 136 runs - 54 2Bs - 4 3B - 47 HRs - 161 RBIs

Projecting those numbers per 162 games, Rooker's projections look as follows:

 

• .265 - .360 - .855
• 94 runs - 38 2Bs - 2 3Bs - 32 HRs - 111 RBIs

In 195 games at AA and AAA, Rooker has:

 

• .263 - .356 - .843
• 48 2Bs - 4 3Bs - 36 HRs - 126 RBIs

Projecting those numbers per 162 games you get the following:

• .263 - .356 - .843
• 95 runs - 40 2Bs - 3 3Bs - 30 HRs - 105 RBIs

Rooker was on fire at AAA before his injury and came all the way back from an extremely slow start.  His slash line and per 162 projected numbers at AAA are:

 

• .281 - .398 - .933 with a wOBA of .400, wRC+ of 138, BB% of 12.8% and K% of 34.7% 
• 102 runs - 40 2B - 35 HRs - 117 RBIs 

His AAA numbers were buoyed by some luck including a .417 BABIP--but Rooker hits the ball extremely hard a lot.  He should always have a high BABIP somewhere in the mid .300s.  Typing out all of those numbers, he's actually been very consistent across his minor league career with some change due to BABIP differences largely.  Rooker is another guy that I think will be helped greatly by the new MLB ball.   

 

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I think Rooker is going to be able to hit for power and get on base at an above average level in the majors.  He's also streaky and going to have a lot of seemingly bad looking whiffs and empty at bats for stretches.  Can the Twins afford to have both him and Sano in their lineup?  

[howieramone2]

Great work!

[mlhouse]

Watching Jeffers at A+ Ft Myers, he is a significantly below average defensive catcher.   His arm seems to be at least average although he had some problems in accuracy.  Jeffers problem is that he is a big guy and is not very mobile behind the plate and his footwork suffers.  So, at a listed 6-4  230lbs this should not be surprising.  From my obersvations, I think his conditioning could also improve and help his defensive game.

 

At 22 years of age, he has some improvement that could be made with his mechanics and if he wants to make the big leagues Ryan should commit to extensive conditioning and weight lifting programs.  

 

The Twins organization has only played him at catcher and DH, but I think they should really look at giving him some time at first base and perhaps right field to increase his defensive versatility.  II am sure that the Twins see Jeffers as a DH candidate down the road, but if they can get him games in the field it will only help his value, including his trade value to other teams.

[Mike Sixel]

I've been all over loving the Jeffers pick since day one. Big fan.

[howieramone2]

 

I've been all over loving the Jeffers pick since day one. Big fan.

He was an overdraft. Looks like they found the backstop they wanted and took him the first chance they had. Solid move.

[Rosterman]

I do feel good abut prospects. Raley is also a good choice, if we don't become too heavy withoutfielders in 2021 and beyond...which makes me wonder how badly the Twins do need to extend, say, Buxton and Rosario.

 

We still have Nick Godron out there, a man without a position in the future, unless Arraez or Polanco could swicth to third when Sano makes a move to first.

 

And the pitching depth amazes me. A couple of High-end hard throwers is all we need, plus one shutdown arm for the pen. I think they MIGHT be there. Of course, with 150+ players to choose from, msot having make-or-break seasons in 2020/2021 or 2022 or be gone...you never know.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thanks for reading!  Let me know your thoughts!

Interesting info, thanks for compiling it.

 

I appreciate the efforts to add context in your posts, but I think it causes confusion in some spots.

 

The 162 game averages probably exaggerate more than they add context -- hardly anyone plays 162 games, and minor league seasons don't even last that long. Unless we want to compare our prospects to a typical Cal Ripken Jr. season!

 

You have the right idea using ranks, but those too are problematic -- you hint at one issue by noting the Southern League only has 10 teams.

 

But even that understates the problem with ranks, as most of the best prospects get promoted midseason and fail to officially "qualify." Kirilloff's 15th and 8th among official qualifiers becomes 34th and 19th among 150+ PA hitters (the minimum level to include Larnach). Larnach's OBP -- which you note would rank 9th among qualifiers -- actually only ranks 24th when compared to all players with 150+ PA.

 

Fortunately, Fangraphs lets you set your own thresholds quite easily:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=6&qual=150&type=1&season=2019&team=0&players=0&sort=8,d

 

or

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league/?pos=all&lg=6&stats=bat&qual=150&type=1&team=&season=2019&seasonEnd=2019&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=8,1

 

There will never be perfect context in minor league stats, but I think the best bet is to completely ignored traditional "qualified" ranks and just eyeball your own arbitrary threshold. Then stick with that across all of your comparisons -- so you're not comparing Kirilloff to one size group and Larnach to another.

 

Finally, focus on rate stat ranks ranks like you were doing (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS, K%, BB%, even BABIP), and mostly leave counting stats out of it (which are too dependent on hitting environment). For wRC+ and ranks, you could even broaden it beyond the specific league to include the whole AA level, which helps with the league size issue.