Is Cruz the best Twins FA signing ever?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But in all seriousness, is Cruz better than Thome? Probably, but it's close.

Yeah. You pointed out Thome's edge in rate stats, but Cruz already has 3.7 bWAR vs Thome's 3.6, and 3.5 fWAR to Thome's 3.1. And there's still over a month to go.

 

Some of Cruz's advantage in playing time was perhaps Thome sitting so Mauer could DH -- but some of was just Thome just getting rest because he was old, broken-down Thome. He only started 99 games the year before in 2009, 78 in 2010, and 78 in 2011 too. Cruz already has 84, on pace for 107 even with the IL stints so far.  (Heck, maybe some of Nelson's bench/IL time in 2019 is because the Twins have an epic, historic lineup and we could afford to be cautious with Nelson too.)

 

And Cruz probably can't do any worse than Thome's 2010 postseason performance. So I'm pretty comfortable giving the nod to Nelson already in this head-to-head matchup.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Hard to beat pitching a 10 inning shutout in the World Series. But Cruz is getting mighty close.

By bWAR, Cruz is up to 3.7, vs Morris' 4.3 from 1991. He may very well pass him in that metric by the end of the season.

 

But Morris went 4-0, 2.23 ERA across 5 starts that postseason too. I think Nelson would need a great postseason to match Morris, even if he claims a regular season WAR advantage.

 

(And as a bonus, Morris opted out of his contract and left after the World Series win, so we weren't stuck with his ultimate decline years!)

[Don Walcott]

Jack Morris went 6-0 during the Twins 24-3 streak in 1991. Morris won the last game of the streak, then the Twins lost 4 in a row.  Morris then stopped the losing streak with a 3-0 complete game shutout over the White Sox and Jack McDowell (the White Sox finished 2nd).  From May 24-June 30, Morris was 8-0, with three complete games, pitching 65.1 innings, with a 2.07 ERA.  He was pitcher of the month in June and started the All-Star Game.

 

Morris also pitched a complete game win against the A's in August, the night after we won in 12 innings, and after the A's were only 1.5 games back of us coming into the series. The A's faded after that and never got as close to us the rest of the season. Morris was strong down the stretch and ended up leading the team with 246.2 innings and had a 3.43 ERA in the regular season.

 

Morris won Games 1 and 4 in the ALCS. He won Games 1 and 7 in the WS, and was pulled while we were ahead in Game 4. He pitched 36.1 innings in five post-season starts and won the WS MVP and Babe Ruth award for best player in the playoffs.

 

I love what Cruz has done so far, but it'll have to be a lot more to knock Jack Morris off the top spot.

 

 

[Don Walcott]

 

 

(And as a bonus, Morris opted out of his contract and left after the World Series win, so we weren't stuck with his ultimate decline years!)

The next year he led the Blue Jays in innings pitched and wins (they were 25-9 when he started), and they won the first World Series in franchise history. I wouldn't have minded having him for 1992, even though his decline definitely began that year.

[yarnivek1972]

The next year he led the Blue Jays in innings pitched and wins (they were 25-9 when he started), and they won the first World Series in franchise history. I wouldn't have minded having him for 1992, even though his decline definitely began that year.

I’m not sure it would have mattered. The Twins traded for Smiley to offset the loss of Morris. Smiley was arguably better than Morris in the regular season in 1992.

 

No chance they do that if Morris resigns IMO. Injuries to key components (Hrbek, Pagliarulo) and regression by Davis, Erickson and others kept the Twins out of October baseball in 1992.

 

 

I still remember that SportsCenter open: Denny Neagle looking into the camera, “I was just traded for a 20 game winner...”

[mrtwinsfan]

 

He was pretty sad when he was signed, too.

Every time Sano check swings i think of Rondell white, all he did

[Otto von Ballpark]

I still remember that SportsCenter open: Denny Neagle looking into the camera, “I was just traded for a 20 game winner...”

That's funny. I didn't have access to SportsCenter, but I remember hearing on the schoolyard that the Twins "traded for a 20 game winner" -- but nobody could tell me his name! And then I was racking my elementary school brain all day trying to figure out who it was. (I didn't realize at the time that Smiley won 20 games in 1991. I knew Drabek did in 1990, but I also knew his Cy Young Award that year was the more notable accomplishment.)

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

 

 

 

So how on earth do you even make the argument that Thome was somehow compromised but Cruz is not?

 

Running the bases maybe?

[Shaitan]

 

What about Tony Batista, Phil Nevin, Tsyoshi Nishioka? 

I believe they traded for Nevin.

[yarnivek1972]

How about Mike Lamb?

 

I believe he holds the distinction of being the first player ever DFA by the Twins with more than a full guaranteed season remaining on his contract.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Jack Morris went 6-0 during the Twins 24-3 streak in 1991. Morris won the last game of the streak, then the Twins lost 4 in a row.  Morris then stopped the losing streak with a 3-0 complete game shutout over the White Sox and Jack McDowell (the White Sox finished 2nd).  From May 24-June 30, Morris was 8-0, with three complete games, pitching 65.1 innings, with a 2.07 ERA.  He was pitcher of the month in June and started the All-Star Game.

 

Morris also pitched a complete game win against the A's in August, the night after we won in 12 innings, and after the A's were only 1.5 games back of us coming into the series. The A's faded after that and never got as close to us the rest of the season. Morris was strong down the stretch and ended up leading the team with 246.2 innings and had a 3.43 ERA in the regular season.

 

Morris won Games 1 and 4 in the ALCS. He won Games 1 and 7 in the WS, and was pulled while we were ahead in Game 4. He pitched 36.1 innings in five post-season starts and won the WS MVP and Babe Ruth award for best player in the playoffs.

 

I love what Cruz has done so far, but it'll have to be a lot more to knock Jack Morris off the top spot.

I was just going to say “Morris”, but this works too

[ewen21]

How about Mike Lamb?

 

I believe he holds the distinction of being the first player ever DFA by the Twins with more than a full guaranteed season remaining on his contract.

Saw him get a walk off single against Boston

[JW24]

 

Rondell White is sad right now.

Bret Boone is too

[gunnarthor]

Morris is the obvious choice. 

 

Thome, Davis, Cruz, Ervin Santana and even Brad Radke were pretty good too. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thome, Davis, Cruz, Ervin Santana and even Brad Radke were pretty good too. 

Radke was only a "free agent signing" for this last 2 seasons. I guess they were worth 2.8 and 1.8 bWAR. Hughes might match that, even with the downside years (4.5 and 1.5 bWAR his first 2 years).

 

Tewksbury was 3.2 and 3.3 bWAR in his 2 seasons here.

 

If we're counting "re-signings" like Radke, then Puckett would be a contender -- he re-signed after 1992, and put up 3.6 and 3.1 bWAR in the two strike-shortened seasons.

 

Carl Pavano would be in the mix too: 3.8 and 1.8 bWAR his first 2 full years here.

 

Hrbek was another re-sign FA after 1989 -- his best years were behind him, but he managed 8.4 bWAR over the next 4 years.

[bighat]

Morris is probably #1 for the reasons many have stated.

 

But Cruz has hit his way into the discussion and his ranking could go up depending on what he and the Twins do if they make a postseason run. Twins win a world series and Cruz hits a game-winning homer? Now we've got an argument.

 

Regardless of Twins history, let's talk MLB free agent signings over this past offseason. Machado and Harper were the big names, but Cruz has outpaced them both. Best signing this offseason for any club? Has to be Cruz, right?

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not a traditional "free agent", but that's how Brian Harper was acquired by the Twins. And he put up 13.4 bWAR over 6 seasons, plus an .802 OPS over 12 games (9 starts) in the postseason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Regardless of Twins history, let's talk MLB free agent signings over this past offseason. Machado and Harper were the big names, but Cruz has outpaced them both. Best signing this offseason for any club? Has to be Cruz, right?

Not really. Cruz is at 3.7 bWAR.

 

Corbin has 4.8 bWAR for the surging, wild-card Nationals.

 

Donaldson had 4.2 bWAR for the first-place Braves.

 

Brantley, 4.9 bWAR for the first-place Astros.

 

LeMahieu, 4.9 bWAR for the first-place Yankees.

 

Charlie Morton, 4.6 bWAR for the wild card Rays.

 

Heck, Mike Fiers has 3.6 bWAR for the contending A's.

 

Lance Lynn, of course, at 5.9 bWAR.

 

Ryu is on a qualifying offer for the Dodgers -- does that count? 5.1 bWAR.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Thome's teammate Orlando Hudson was 2.9 bWAR / 3.0 fWAR for us in 2010.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Paul Molitor had 3.7 bWAR his first year here too, as a FA signing.

 

FA Dave Hollins posted 3.1 bWAR the same year *and* netted us David Ortiz in trade.

 

Whoa -- Mike Morgan was worth 3.7 bWAR for us in 1998? In only 17 starts?

 

Relievers naturally have lower WAR totals, but Aguilera and Swindell had nice years as FA signings. Juan Berenguer and Carl Willis too.

[USAFChief]

 

Paul Molitor had 3.7 bWAR his first year here too, as a FA signing.

 

FA Dave Hollins posted 3.1 bWAR the same year *and* netted us David Ortiz in trade.

 

Whoa -- Mike Morgan was worth 3.7 bWAR for us in 1998? In only 17 starts?

 

Relievers naturally have lower WAR totals, but Aguilera and Swindell had nice years as FA signings. Juan Berenguer and Carl Willis too.

I believe we got David Arias. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I believe we got David Arias. 

Player to be re-named later!

[mlhouse]

 

lots of people predicted this team would be in contention.

But even if not, what was the potential mistake of adding Cruz?

 

The same people that have predicted this team would be in contention every year.  I get being a homer, but to claim that their predictions had any validity is idiotic.  I will repeat, not even the Front Office predicted this season of contention.  THe proof is that they traded away Ryan Pressley at the trade deadline last season.  If they thought they would be even partially competitive they would not have made that deal.

 

For example, if you predicted Max Kepler would have a .866 OPS your prediction would be worthless.  Kepler has had seasonal OPS of .734,  .737, and .727 in his previous full time MLB seasons.  

 

The reason not to sign Cruz is that a 38 year old player that is declining, slowly, but still declining, was not the type of player that profiled for a rebuilding team.  The justification for signing him was that he was relatively cheap and at least we could have a decent bat in the lineup rather than another embarrassment.   But, if anyone is claining that they thought he would have a career year at 38 is just BSing.  To date, he is having a career high in slugging pct, hist best full season OBP, his highest career OPS, and OPS+.   His 33 home runs in 387 PAs is at a 57 home run pace over 162 games, 19 home runs above his career 162 game pace.  

 

The 2019 Twins have the fortune of having not just one, but almost every player on the roster have a career year and even those that are not having career years having solid campaigns.  

 

SO, going forward there are two real questiosn.  1.   What was the cause of this (I believe it is the new manager and overall MLB power trends) and 2.  will it continue (I believe it can since one guy having a fluke year is a fluke, many guys having a career year simulataneously has a causation).  The approach at the plate of this Twins team is so much different than the previous decade.  

 

Lastly, as a long term critic of how this and the previous Twins FO handled minor league development, I believe that this year the team has finally got it.  I like how they have given some of our minor league pitching prospects opportunities and I like how they have advanced our other prospects that have earned promotions.  

[Thrylos]

Brian Harper. 

 

13.4 bWAR for the Twins and starting C in a World Series team.  And was signed for $90K, and apparently on top of the list on the most underappreciated Twins' players

 

(Chili Davis 5.2 bWAR, Jim Thome 4.5 bWAR for the Twins)

[Don Walcott]

 

Morris is probably #1 for the reasons many have stated.

 

But Cruz has hit his way into the discussion and his ranking could go up depending on what he and the Twins do if they make a postseason run. Twins win a world series and Cruz hits a game-winning homer? Now we've got an argument.

 

Regardless of Twins history, let's talk MLB free agent signings over this past offseason. Machado and Harper were the big names, but Cruz has outpaced them both. Best signing this offseason for any club? Has to be Cruz, right?

Or DJ LeMahieu.

[USAFChief]

 

The same people that have predicted this team would be in contention every year.  I get being a homer, but to claim that their predictions had any validity is idiotic.  I will repeat, not even the Front Office predicted this season of contention.  THe proof is that they traded away Ryan Pressley at the trade deadline last season.  If they thought they would be even partially competitive they would not have made that deal.

 

 

 

 

No. Our own season prediction thread poll here at TD had the most people predicting 86-90 wins. I hesitate to call them all "homers." Some pretty smart posters were included in that. Almost nobody had them below .500.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/32597-poll-how-many-wins-this-year/?hl=poll

 

Most national publications had them as solidly in 2nd in the ALC, with several predicting the Twins to win the ALC (7 of 32 Fangraphs preseason predictors picked the Twins.) Bleacher Report had them at 87 wins. Ceasars had them at 84 wins on their preseason over/under wager list. Off the top of my head, Harold Reynolds at MLB Network picked the Twins to win the ALC. USAToday picked the Indians to win the ALC, but put the Twins as a darkhorse most likely to surprise. And that's just looking up a few, I'm sure there were more.

 

I don't think it was "idiotic" to predict the Twins had a very solid chance of contending in 2019. And further, IMO it's completely inaccurate to call the 2019 Twins "rebuilding." They're either "rebuilt," or it's time to tear down and start over. Virtually the entire farm system that they "rebuilt" with is up in the big leagues, and with at least a year or two of experience. Kepler, Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Berrios, Rosario, et al are not the players of a "rebuilding" team. They're the players you rebuilt with and now sink or swim with. 

 

Don't get me started on Pressly, but if the FO didn't think they'd contend, why Gonzalez? Cron? et al?

 

Signing Cruz was not only a great idea, but almost zero risk. Taking ABs from nobody, and if not in contention, a great July trade candidate. Cheap. too. You didn't have to predict a career year to think he'd be extremely valuable.

 

 

[Dantes929]

So, its all hindsight then right?    People think they thought Morris was a wonderful signing back in the day but at the time I would say he was the definition of veteran retread.   The kind of signing that has been complained about over the years.  He was coming off a two year record of 21-32 with a 4.7 ERA and had just turned 36.    Thome and Cruz were both at ages that washed up veteran could have easily been applied to their prospective first year with the Twins.   Same with Molitor.    Ronell White was actually a great signing.  Coming off a very good age 32 season he appeared to be exactly what the Twins needed at the time.    In other words without the advantage of hindsight, White should absolutely have been in the discussion.  

[MABB1959]

I always am hoping someone else will remember when the Twins tried to get Cruz like 10 years ago but the other team wanted Aaron Hicks and then everything stopped. Does anyone remember it or when it was?  Is it possible we could have had him the last 10 years?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I always am hoping someone else will remember when the Twins tried to get Cruz like 10 years ago but the other team wanted Aaron Hicks and then everything stopped. Does anyone remember it or when it was?  Is it possible we could have had him the last 10 years?

I don't remember that. Cruz was traded as a rookie/prospect in 2006 but hasn't been traded since. He was on contending teams every year he was a regular, from 2009-2014, up until his Mariners contract, so I doubt he was being shopped either -- his teams weren't selling.

 

FWIW, outside of one year (2010), he wasn't super valuable until he signed in Baltimore and then Seattle. 5 of his top 6 Rbat seasons have come since he left Texas in 2014. So I'm not sure having him 10 years ago would have made a difference for the Twins anyway.

 

The trade talk that I remember from 9 years ago (2010) was the Twins potentially trading Hicks and Ramos (and/or Gibson?) to Seattle for Cliff Lee -- but Cruz's Rangers got him instead for Justin Smoak.

[bighat]

 

Not really. Cruz is at 3.7 bWAR.

 

Corbin has 4.8 bWAR for the surging, wild-card Nationals.

 

Donaldson had 4.2 bWAR for the first-place Braves.

 

Brantley, 4.9 bWAR for the first-place Astros.

 

LeMahieu, 4.9 bWAR for the first-place Yankees.

 

Charlie Morton, 4.6 bWAR for the wild card Rays.

 

Heck, Mike Fiers has 3.6 bWAR for the contending A's.

 

Lance Lynn, of course, at 5.9 bWAR.

 

Ryu is on a qualifying offer for the Dodgers -- does that count? 5.1 bWAR.

 

 A couple outliers there (ie: Lynn) and then you have guys like LeMahieu and Donaldson - who while having great years - their teams would maybe be OK without them. I think Cruz has brought more to this Twins team than just a bWAR but call me old fashioned.

 

Morton definitely in the convo. Brantley's been a nice pickup also.