The Rays got their man at the deadline. Arggggh!

[jokin]

 

How about the other players cut this year? Should they also be on the 40? Will there be a hindsight thread created for trading any of these players for nothing?

Mejia
Parker
Magill
Morin
Jay
Eades
Adams
Granite

 

How many of these guys led the International League in K/9, K%, K%-BB% and xFIP?

[drivlikejehu]

 

FYI follow-up:

 

How good was Nick Anderson in AAA in 2018?

 

For all pitchers with 60 or more innings:

K/9- 13.20 Ranked #1 in the International League

K%- 36.2% Ranked #1 in the International League

K-BB%- 28.4% Ranked #1 in the International League

xFIP- 2.49 Ranked #1 in the International League

 

Pretty questionable to just let someone go, without even a 2018 look-see call-up with these strike-throwing, result-driven numbers, especially with all the uncertainty in the Twins pen going into 2019.

 

Super convenient cut-off, since his xFIP drops to 4th at 50 IP (still reasonable for relievers).

 

Putting aside artificial innings cutoffs, the most dominant IL pitcher was probably Drew VerHagen, with an xFIP of 1.76 in 33.2 innings. Compared to Anderson, he had a higher strikeout rate, almost identical walk rate, and also has good velocity. He of course has been batting practice for the Tigers this year. 

 

Posters are encouraged to review the top AAA relievers in recent years, and see how many were ever relevant in MLB.

[yarnivek1972]

Super convenient cut-off, since his xFIP drops to 4th at 50 IP (still reasonable for relievers).

 

Putting aside artificial innings cutoffs, the most dominant IL pitcher was probably Drew VerHagen, with an xFIP of 1.76 in 33.2 innings. Compared to Anderson, he had a higher strikeout rate, almost identical walk rate, and also has good velocity. He of course has been batting practice for the Tigers this year.

 

Posters are encouraged to review the top AAA relievers in recent years, and see how many were ever relevant in MLB.

VerHagen has been a AAAA guy for like 4-5 years. Anderson never pitched at the MLB level prior to 2019. So, I don’t see the relevance in comparing the two.

[Major League Ready]

 

I think you judge a trade by what's known at the time.

I dont care if Alcala wins a CYA. Still would call trading Pressly a clear mistake.

"Wait five years, then ask me"? Weak.

 

That kind of thinking is exceptionally short-sighted.  If Alcala or Celestino are well-above average for multiple years, it's a good trade. If both are productive at the MLB level it's a great trade for the Twins even if Pressly was not hurt. His presence for the last half of last year was meaningless and now he's hurt, hoping to return for the playoffs. Sure, he would have had value to this point (this season) but to suggest his value is more important than if Alcala becomes a CY level pitcher is to think only in terms of the present. I will still be a fan for years to come.

 

Just to put this in context. Many wanted to trade several years of Garver and top prospects for 2 years of Realmuto. That would have hurt now and the future if Garver stays healthy. The kind of prospects needed could hurt badly for years. While we are on catchers, before Realmuto many wanted us to pay a premium in young talent to get LuCroy who was not all that good for his remaining two years. Kepler was among the players mentioned. Before that many thought we should give up good prospects for Tulo and Polanco was mentioned. Too be fair, many did object to the cost of Tulo. Same story with Chris Archer and there are other examples as well. This team would be in sad shape if the Twins FO was a short-sighted as some fans tend to be.  

 

Just a little more context ... This team is on pace to win almost 100 games and is well-positioned to sustain success. To complain about the performance of the front office seems misguided, especially when speaking of the BP.  TDers should take a look at the high dollar FA reliever who were broadly endorsed here this year. Virtually all of them failed miserably and we would be saddled with their contracts.

[Rosterman]

You can argue about Andrson and why he wasn't kept yet we did kept Mahill, Morin, Mejia etc. etc. Always a numbers game. Always a call on poential. Hy, we kept Slegers and De Jong, too. But names like Burdi and Rodriguez have also walked (or been claimed).

 

Somehow we let Hendriks get away, although could've had him back easily (as wella s every otehr team in baseball).

 

[yarnivek1972]

That kind of thinking is exceptionally short-sighted. If Alcala or Celestino are well-above average for multiple years, it's a good trade. If both are productive at the MLB level it's a great trade for the Twins even if Pressly was not hurt. His presence for the last half of last year was meaningless and now he's hurt, hoping to return for the playoffs. Sure, he would have had value to this point (this season) but to suggest his value is more important than if Alcala becomes a CY level pitcher is to think only in terms of the present. I will still be a fan for years to come.

 

Just to put this in context. Many wanted to trade several years of Garver and top prospects for 2 years of Realmuto. That would have hurt now and the future if Garver stays healthy. The kind of prospects needed could hurt badly for years. While we are on catchers, before Realmuto many wanted us to pay a premium in young talent to get LuCroy who was not all that good for his remaining two years. Kepler was among the players mentioned. Before that many thought we should give up good prospects for Tulo and Polanco was mentioned. Too be fair, many did object to the cost of Tulo. Same story with Chris Archer and there are other examples as well. This team would be in sad shape if the Twins FO was a short-sighted as some fans tend to be.

 

Just a little more context ... This team is on pace to win almost 100 games and is well-positioned to sustain success. To complain about the performance of the front office seems misguided, especially when speaking of the BP. TDers should take a look at the high dollar FA reliever who were broadly endorsed here this year. Virtually all of them failed miserably and we would be saddled with their contracts.

How do you figure a team with exactly two pitchers that have more than 5 career starts at the MLB level under control for next year is “well-positioned for sustained success”?

[SwainZag]

How do you figure a team with exactly two pitchers that have more than 5 career starts at the MLB level under control for next year is “well-positioned for sustained success”?

I would say this is a question best asked on Opening Day next year right rather than right now.

[Mr. Brooks]

I would say this is a question best asked on Opening Day next year right rather than right now.

In that case, wouldn't the poster he responded to also have to wait until Opening Day to say they're set up for maintained success?

[SwainZag]

In that case, wouldn't the poster he responded to also have to wait until Opening Day to say they're set up for maintained success?

I'd say no? Not only do they have a highly rated fam system with a lot of trade pieces, they should have plenty of money to add players in the off season while having most positions with entrenched starters. I'd agree with the poster that they are set up pretty well.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'd say no? Not only do they have a highly rated fam system with a lot of trade pieces, they should have plenty of money to add players in the off season while having most positions with entrenched starters. I'd agree with the poster that they are set up pretty well.

Sure but you have to actually trade those prospects for a big time arm, or sign one or two. Just having the resources to do so is only step one.

 

I think it's fair to want to see how they address the pitching staff before we decide if they're set up for sustained success yet or not.

[Jham]

I'd say no? Not only do they have a highly rated fam system with a lot of trade pieces, they should have plenty of money to add players in the off season while having most positions with entrenched starters. I'd agree with the poster that they are set up pretty well.

Do you believe our offense will be able to repeat this season? Do you think our rotation will be better or worse? Go look at who the Twins owe raises. We'll hopefully try to extend a few and lock down a couple. To run out the same team would cost substantially more next year. Prohibitively expensive. We will have to sign out of free agency because we refuse to negotiate midseason when we have leverage. We refuse to overpay in free agency which is almost the definition of free agency (bidding more than every other team). We will likely make a deal, but we could have done that at the deadline and had them this year too. And maybe we saved on Polanco and Kepler. But it may cost us more in the long run since we have a whole wave of players who will be hesitant to sign an extension after seeing the money left on the table. As we discussed before, it's hard to think Polanco and Kepler feel good about their deals. Consistently trying to pay your employees less than they're worth will usually come back to bite you (even the Rays who just replace everyone can win games but lack the continuity to keep fans and draw crowds).

[SwainZag]

 

Do you believe our offense will be able to repeat this season? Do you think our rotation will be better or worse? Go look at who the Twins owe raises. We'll hopefully try to extend a few and lock down a couple. To run out the same team would cost substantially more next year. Prohibitively expensive. We will have to sign out of free agency because we refuse to negotiate midseason when we have leverage. We refuse to overpay in free agency which is almost the definition of free agency (bidding more than every other team). We will likely make a deal, but we could have done that at the deadline and had them this year too. And maybe we saved on Polanco and Kepler. But it may cost us more in the long run since we have a whole wave of players who will be hesitant to sign an extension after seeing the money left on the table. As we discussed before, it's hard to think Polanco and Kepler feel good about their deals. Consistently trying to pay your employees less than they're worth will usually come back to bite you (even the Rays who just replace everyone can win games but lack the continuity to keep fans and draw crowds).

 

The Twins core bats are aged 22 and 28 and many core players had break out seasons this year.  Unless you can assume Kepler, Polanco, Garver and Arraez all had career years and will retract and Buxton, Sano and Rosario all aren't the players they have shown to be when healthy......then I think this team will be an above average and near the top of the league in offense.  Sure, they might not break the HR record, but there's little to believe they won't be a force again next season.

 

As for the pitching, Berrios looks like a star in the making, who still has some things to figure out, there's not reason to believe he cannot keep getting better.  You have to assume some combination of Gibson/Odo/Perez will be back and there are some intriguing in house options.  And like I said they will have money to go after a starter or two this winter.

 

The bullpen possibly minus Romo, should be back.  Rogers is legit, May and Duffy look like they have turned the corner, Dyson will be back.  The bullpen as a whole will start the season as a better group than this season.

 

I really think you need to get off this idea that guys are going to be hesitant and angry at the organization because of the Polanco and Kepler extensions.  We have talked about this before and I honestly think there is zero ill will.  Those players and their agents signed extensions before those players broke out.  The idea they are holding a grudge is just silly, especially because there is zero that has come from anyone to even think this.    

[SwainZag]

 

Sure but you have to actually trade those prospects for a big time arm, or sign one or two. Just having the resources to do so is only step one.

I think it's fair to want to see how they address the pitching staff before we decide if they're set up for sustained success yet or not.

 

I understand this, but the option is there.  They have the players to get it done.  If they had zero farm syetem, yeah you have every right to question the front office.  Wow, we possibly losing 4/5 of our rotation and have no farm or money.....which isn't true.  For all we know, they will resign everyone and they could have the same starting 5 next year.  Unlikely, but it's in the realm of possibility.  

[Mr. Brooks]

I understand this, but the option is there. They have the players to get it done. If they had zero farm syetem, yeah you have every right to question the front office. Wow, we possibly losing 4/5 of our rotation and have no farm or money.....which isn't true. For all we know, they will resign everyone and they could have the same starting 5 next year. Unlikely, but it's in the realm of possibility.

I'm just saying that trades and free agency are two sided transactions.

They also had money and prospect capital this season, and for whatever reason, couldn't or wouldn't use it, outside of Romo and Dyson.

 

I'm not ripping them for passing on Kimbrel and Kuechel, and not trading for Stroman or Grienke. Simply saying that having money and prospect capital is no guarantee that deals will get done.

 

Obviously the team will enter 2020 with 5 starting pitchers on the active roster, but it's too soon to assume they'll be good core pieces that would fit the definition of being set up for sustained success.

 

I agree that the offense is pretty much there. But the 2020 pitching staff is wide open. Berrios is a nice piece to have, but for whatever reason, he hasn't been able to take that next step. You're right that he's young enough there is still hope he will, but it's also possible that this is who he will be- a solid #2.

If they can work out a deal with Odor, that makes for a solid #2 & #3, but that still leaves 3 spots open.

If they bring in two mediocre thirty somethings, and let Smeltzer, Littell and Thorpe battle it out for the fifth spot, I won't consider that set up for sustained success.

[Major League Ready]

 

How do you figure a team with exactly two pitchers that have more than 5 career starts at the MLB level under control for next year is “well-positioned for sustained success”?

 

The Twins have $57M coming off the books next year. They could probably retain Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda if they so wished and they have an option on Perez. I believe they will they will make a hard push at someone better than all four of them and perhaps better than Berrios. They will have the budget and finally a team a FA who cares about winning will want to join. I do not see a problem resigning two of Odorizzi / Gibson / Pineda at a cost of $22-27M depending on which two are signed. They can afford a $25M+ AAV pitcher and there are enough FAs better than this group that we should be able to improve the rotation through free agency. 

 

This is a considerably better team next year if they add one of the premier FA starting pitchers. Obviously, those guys are hard to sign but this team has never been positioned better to attract/sign a top tier SP. Bottom line is they won’t have a problem signing an equivalent staff and a good chance to make significant improvement.

The offense returns everyone who matters next year and the only position not set for multiple years is 1st base and DH. Those two positions are the easiest to fill and who knows maybe Cruz as more in the tank and can be resigned.

 

 They also have club control of the two highest WAR offense players (Kepler/Polanco)  through 2024/2025

 The next three highest WAR position players (Sano/Buxton/Garver are under team control through 2022/23/24 respectively.

 Rosario is here until 2022 unless but he is replaced by an equivalent or better player, probably Kirilloff or Larnach.  Rosario is on pace for about 1.6 WAR this year which will make his average over 4 years a little above 2. Kirilloff and Larnach to be more impactful.

 Between Graterol / Balazovic / Colina and others who are emerging there is a very good chance the Twins will get even better for a sustained period.

 

That’s well positioned. Not to be confused with set. They need to make a key FA signing of a starting pitcher and a couple players among this tremendous depth need to pan out but they are well-positioned to be good for several years.

[SwainZag]

 

It's interesting you prefer to wait to form an opinion on the Pressly trade, but declare the Realmuto non-trade a win based on present results. Seems rather inconsistent, no?

 

By the way...I don't put much stock in WAR, but you might want to reconsider anyway:

 

bWAR for Garver = 2.8

bWAR for Realmuto = 3.7

 

playing time certainly is part of that difference, but still. Let's not pretend Realmuto isn't a really, really good catcher.

He is a really good catcher....but it's a counting stat.  

 

The Twins have gotten similar if not more production out of the Garver/Castro combo this season.

[Riverbrian]

The Twins have $57M coming off the books next year. They could probably retain Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda if they so wished and they have an option on Perez. I believe they will they will make a hard push at someone better than all four of them and perhaps better than Berrios. They will have the budget and finally a team a FA who cares about winning will want to join. I do not see a problem resigning two of Odorizzi / Gibson / Pineda at a cost of $22-27M depending on which two are signed. They can afford a $25M+ AAV pitcher and there are enough FAs better than this group that we should be able to improve the rotation through free agency.

 

This is a considerably better team next year if they add one of the premier FA starting pitchers. Obviously, those guys are hard to sign but this team has never been positioned better to attract/sign a top tier SP. Bottom line is they won’t have a problem signing an equivalent staff and a good chance to make significant improvement.

The offense returns everyone who matters next year and the only position not set for multiple years is 1st base and DH. Those two positions are the easiest to fill and who knows maybe Cruz as more in the tank and can be resigned.

 

 They also have club control of the two highest WAR offense players (Kepler/Polanco) through 2024/2025

 The next three highest WAR position players (Sano/Buxton/Garver are under team control through 2022/23/24 respectively.

 Rosario is here until 2022 unless but he is replaced by an equivalent or better player, probably Kirilloff or Larnach. Rosario is on pace for about 1.6 WAR this year which will make his average over 4 years a little above 2. Kirilloff and Larnach to be more impactful.

 Between Graterol / Balazovic / Colina and others who are emerging there is a very good chance the Twins will get even better for a sustained period.

 

That’s well positioned. Not to be confused with set. They need to make a key FA signing of a starting pitcher and a couple players among this tremendous depth need to pan out but they are well-positioned to be good for several years.

With the offensive depth. A trade of (Rosario for example) for pitching is also a path that could be chosen.

 

It’ll be an interesting off season. At least it better be an interesting one.

[USAFChief]

 

He is a really good catcher....but it's a counting stat.  

 

The Twins have gotten similar if not more production out of the Garver/Castro combo this season.

The point is...if you're going to insist on waiting five years to decide whether the Pressly trade was good or bad, you can't turn around and declare the Realmuto non-trade good without also waiting five years.

[JW24]

 

The point is...if you're going to insist on waiting five years to decide whether the Pressly trade was good or bad, you can't turn around and declare the Realmuto non-trade good without also waiting five years.

Not trading for Realmuto and opting to go with a Garver/Castro combination this year can be a fairly apples-to-apples comparison as they are all playing at the MLB level.

 

In 500 plate appearances this year, Realmuto has 4.9 fWAR. In 510 plate appearances between Garver and Castro, they have amassed 4.0 fWAR. I don't think it is unreasonable to say the non-trade has worked out well for the Twins this season.

 

Nick Nelson wrote about a potential trade for Realmuto that mentioned Kirilloff as the primary piece the Twins would give up. Depending on when Kirilloff debuts and what his impact is, I think we will have an answer well within 5 years, and I think it will favor the Twins.

[Major League Ready]

 

He is a really good catcher....but it's a counting stat.  

 

The Twins have gotten similar if not more production out of the Garver/Castro combo this season.

 

They also retained the considerable prospect package needed to sign Realmuto. Plus, Garver is under team control until 2024. Realmuto has one more year of control.

 

We will never know which prospects would have been traded away so we will never know just how bad it could have been. We will have to wait for 4-5 years to evaluate the Alcala / Celestino trade. Thus, the need to wait on the Pressly trade and not the proposed Realmuto trade. If Pressly is out or ineffective this post season, Pressly's value would have been minimal to the Twins over the past 1 1/2 seasons. Alcala / Celestino could be very good ML players and contribute 6 years each to this team. Right now the value received could be nothing or great but there is the potential for the gain to far outweigh the cost.

[Major League Ready]

 

With the offensive depth. A trade of (Rosario for example) for pitching is also a path that could be chosen.

It’ll be an interesting off season. At least it better be an interesting one.

 

I think trading Rosario this off-season could be a good move but I doubt the same team that wants Rosario (2 yrs control) is going to give up starting pitching. Any team interest would be in a window of contention and unlikely to trade starting pitching. Perhaps a 3-team trade or trade Rosario for prospects and use those assets or similar assets to trade for pitching. Of course,

 

Like everyone else, I would prefer they sign Cole but that will be a tall order. Bumgarner or / Wheeler would be nice upgrades and Keuchel might be an option as well.

[Mike Sixel]

Ya, I can't see how Rosario returns anything that will help in the next year or two. Plus, let's face it, he's not been all that good this year. Given Lanarch and Kiriloff and others that can progress, I doubt Eddie is in MN in 3 years. Maybe not 2. Maybe not next year if they want to save some money for other moves.

 

I'd be ok with them getting low level HIGH UPSIDE players for him this off season. That's how you build a sustainable winning culture. Yes, they will lose something on the field (probably) and maybe the clubhouse, but he's replaceable imo.

 

Their lack of major moves this trade deadline doesn't exactly inspire confidence they can fill 4 holes on the starting pitching staff, but we'll see.

[Mr. Brooks]

The point is...if you're going to insist on waiting five years to decide whether the Pressly trade was good or bad, you can't turn around and declare the Realmuto non-trade good without also waiting five years.

I think there is a difference between saying a trade/ non trade looks good so far, and declaring that it's a win or loss no matter how it turns out mid and long term.

[Jham]

Can someone estimate arbitration on the eligible players? Anyone in danger of a non-tender? How much more expensive will the team be if they stand pat?

[Major League Ready]

 

Can someone estimate arbitration on the eligible players? Anyone in danger of a non-tender? How much more expensive will the team be if they stand pat?

 

That’s a good question. Sano / Buxton / Berrios and Rogers will get raises but I would expect the revenue increase over last year will just about cover it. Plus, the FO is going to have much more confidence in sustaining or increasing revenue next year.

 

We have $57M coming off the books. (Hughes / Santana / Reed / Castro & Schoop / Odorizzi / Gibson / Pineda. They will let Schoop go for certain and probably Castro. We can afford two of Odorizzi / Gibson / Pineda and still sign one of the top free agent SPs. As I said earlier, we are well-positioned. Now, we need to execute signing a top free agent SP.

[Jham]

That’s a good question. Sano / Buxton / Berrios and Rogers will get raises but I would expect the revenue increase over last year will just about cover it. Plus, the FO is going to have much more confidence in sustaining or increasing revenue next year.

 

We have $57M coming off the books. (Hughes / Santana / Reed / Castro & Schoop / Odorizzi / Gibson / Pineda. They will let Schoop go for certain and probably Castro. We can afford two of Odorizzi / Gibson / Pineda and still sign one of the top free agent SPs. As I said earlier, we are well-positioned. Now, we need to execute signing a top free agent SP.

I have seen no evidence that suggests increased revenue, much like saved salary, will be reinvested back into the team. I have seen zero evidence that we are willing to trade top prospects. I've seen no evidence that we're willing to sign any pitcher, home grown, acquisition, free agent, or extension to a long term deal, and Odo, Gibby, Pineda, and your top starter X are all going to command large multi-year commitments. We could extend qualifying offers, but that eats up most of the budget and are likely to be turned down anyway. Then if we agree to extensions or buy out arb years or truly lock someone up looking term the investment goes up even more. You have way more confidence than I do that this front office will make 3 moves they have rarely ever done. Hughes Santana and Nolasco really. And that was back when we had few other players that needed commitments outside of #7.

[Major League Ready]

 

I have seen no evidence that suggests increased revenue, much like saved salary, will be reinvested back into the team. I have seen zero evidence that we are willing to trade top prospects. I've seen no evidence that we're willing to sign any pitcher, home grown, acquisition, free agent, or extension to a long term deal, and Odo, Gibby, Pineda, and your top starter X are all going to command large multi-year commitments. We could extend qualifying offers, but that eats up most of the budget and are likely to be turned down anyway. Then if we agree to extensions or buy out arb years or truly lock someone up looking term the investment goes up even more. You have way more confidence than I do that this front office will make 3 moves they have rarely ever done. Hughes Santana and Nolasco really. And that was back when we had few other players that needed commitments outside of #

 

 

What are the 3 moves to which you refer?

[Jham]

What are the 3 moves to which you refer?

Sign 3 FA pitchers (2 current Twins plus another top arm)

[Mike Sixel]

Sign 3 FA pitchers (2 current Twins plus another top arm)

Plus a first or third baseman, and some relief pitchers. And maybe a veteran catcher.

[JW24]

 

Can someone estimate arbitration on the eligible players? Anyone in danger of a non-tender? How much more expensive will the team be if they stand pat?

I am far from an expert on this, so I am hoping someone who knows more will answer your question because I am curious too! But I will give it a shot here (these are my estimates, no firm basis for my figures):

 

CJ Cron: 5-7M

Miguel Sano: 4-5M

Ehire Adrianza: 2M

Eddie Rosario: 6-8M

Byron Buxton: 5-6M

Jose Berrios: 3-4M

Sam Dyson: 6-8M

Taylor Rogers: 3-4M

Trevor May: 2M

Tyler Duffey: 1M

 

Total: 37-47M

 

These are estimates based on prior year's arbitration salaries and increases. I did not compare these figures to what other players have received in arbitration. If any of these figures are egregiously low or high, let me know as I am not an expert.