The Rays got their man at the deadline. Arggggh!

[howieramone2]

 

Ya, I can't see how Rosario returns anything that will help in the next year or two. Plus, let's face it, he's not been all that good this year. Given Lanarch and Kiriloff and others that can progress, I doubt Eddie is in MN in 3 years. Maybe not 2. Maybe not next year if they want to save some money for other moves.

 

I'd be ok with them getting low level HIGH UPSIDE players for him this off season. That's how you build a sustainable winning culture. Yes, they will lose something on the field (probably) and maybe the clubhouse, but he's replaceable imo.

 

Their lack of major moves this trade deadline doesn't exactly inspire confidence they can fill 4 holes on the starting pitching staff, but we'll see.

Filling a hole at the trade deadline is a different animal than filling that same hole during the off season. According to different sources on MLB Trade Rumors and MLB.Com, our favorite team was on most, if not all of the usual suspects at the trade deadline. When the rumored price was made available it was simply much too high to even consider. The FO did say we would be all in, if we were in contention. What they didn't say was we would pay any price, even if it would damage our future.

 

Looks to me we have plenty of options to fill our staff, so we can continue to dominate the Central. Once you make the play-offs anything can happen. The goal should be to build a team to win the Central every year. Those who feel our favorite team owes it to fans to build a team than can win the World Series every year on paper, don't fully understand mid-market teams, or realize how much money would be wasted on overpriced free agency contracts.

 

Falvey is surely in the running for Baseball Executive of the Year.

[Jham]

Filling a hole at the trade deadline is a different animal than filling that same hole during the off season. According to different sources on MLB Trade Rumors and MLB.Com, our favorite team was on most, if not all of the usual suspects at the trade deadline. When the rumored price was made available it was simply much too high to even consider. The FO did say we would be all in, if we were in contention. What they didn't say was we would pay any price, even if it would damage our future.

 

Looks to me we have plenty of options to fill our staff, so we can continue to dominate the Central. Once you make the play-offs anything can happen. The goal should be to build a team to win the Central every year. Those who feel our favorite team owes it to fans to build a team than can win the World Series every year on paper, don't fully understand mid-market teams, or realize how much money would be wasted on overpriced free agency contracts.

 

Falvey is surely in the running for Baseball Executive of the Year.

Continue to dominate the central? Let's win it first. Next season the White Sox get Kopech and Rodon back. Cleveland is right there.

 

Right now, Perez is not likely to be retained (may be extended for less aav), and Berrios looks tired. I'm trying really hard to see a serviceable rotation next year. It would have to come together like our hitting did this year.

[bird]

Lots of fretting about next year's team here. Lots of hints from posters that that task will be at best extremely difficult. I just don't understand why one would be so pessimistic. This FO made a couple of miscalculations no doubt, but those pale in comparison to all the really astute moves. And keep in mind that their priority going into 2019 was to get enertia going with all the "infrastructure" things like the development process, technology, etc. They, like all of us, miscalculated regarding just how good this team would be. Had they known ahead of time how many things would gel, I'm guessing they would have gotten more aggressive.

 

Thad Levine recently surmised out loud that he expected only one of the rotation spots to be filled from the internal pipeline. They have lots of candidates, although I think it's safe to say none of these guys fill most of us with confidence: Thorpe, Littell, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Gonsalves, Poppen, Stewart, Colina...who am I missing? The point is, they have numbers, and it's the 5th spot, and it's one spot. I fully expect they'll bring back two guys, I'd guess Odo and Pinieda, maybe even QO Gibson, and then find one quality FA to headline the rotation with Berrios.

 

I don't see them needing help elsewhere, other than maybe to bring Castro back. Cron can handle 1st for another year. Someone will surface like Arraez did this season. Kirilloff? Raley? Rooker? Larnach? Perhaps that will be Cron's time to find himself in a similar situation as Schoop did this year.

 

They don't need a 1st or 3rd baseman from outside, and they surely don't need "a few relievers". Unlike last off-season, when they short-changed themselves, adding one good relief arm over this coming off-season might do the trick.

 

All of this doesn't seem to be insurmountable to me. The opposite maybe.

[Mr. Brooks]

Lots of fretting about next year's team here. Lots of hints from posters that that task will be at best extremely difficult. I just don't understand why one would be so pessimistic. This FO made a couple of miscalculations no doubt, but those pale in comparison to all the really astute moves. And keep in mind that their priority going into 2019 was to get enertia going with all the "infrastructure" things like the development process, technology, etc. They, like all of us, miscalculated regarding just how good this team would be. Had they known ahead of time how many things would gel, I'm guessing they would have gotten more aggressive.

 

Thad Levine recently surmised out loud that he expected only one of the rotation spots to be filled from the internal pipeline. They have lots of candidates, although I think it's safe to say none of these guys fill most of us with confidence: Thorpe, Littell, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Gonsalves, Poppen, Stewart, Colina...who am I missing? The point is, they have numbers, and it's the 5th spot, and it's one spot. I fully expect they'll bring back two guys, I'd guess Odo and Pinieda, maybe even QO Gibson, and then find one quality FA to headline the rotation with Berrios.

 

I don't see them needing help elsewhere, other than maybe to bring Castro back. Cron can handle 1st for another year. Someone will surface like Arraez did this season. Kirilloff? Raley? Rooker? Larnach? Perhaps that will be Cron's time to find himself in a similar situation as Schoop did this year.

 

They don't need a 1st or 3rd baseman from outside, and they surely don't need "a few relievers". Unlike last off-season, when they short-changed themselves, adding one good relief arm over this coming off-season might do the trick.

 

All of this doesn't seem to be insurmountable to me. The opposite maybe.

It's not insurmountable. It's just completely unprecedented, both from the organization historically, and this front office.

 

I'm not saying they won't find a way to make some astute signings again. But to sign 3 free agent pitchers to long term, big money contracts, including one as good as or better than Berrios? That takes a total leap of faith to see that actually happening.

[bird]

 

It's not insurmountable. It's just completely unprecedented, both from the organization historically, and this front office.

I'm not saying they won't find a way to make some astute signings again. But to sign 3 free agent pitchers to long term, big money contracts, including one as good as or better than Berrios? That takes a total leap of faith to see that actually happening.

 

I get this, but what's also unprecedented is the immediate opportunity and the financial capacity to take advantage of it. I disregard the common notions about historical behavior on the part of the organization. I believe Ryan's firing marked a dramatic change in viewpoint about what can be defined as prudent investing in the business. That doesn't mean this new FO will do stupid things financially, but I think they'll judge it to be smart to commit dollars longer term to pitchers like Odo and Pinieda. I'd agree with you that the leap of faith is in being optimistic that they'll outbid the competition for a front rotation arm in FA.

[Danchat]

I imagine the Twins will swing a trade for at least one starter over the offseason - they have so many solid hitting prospects that they should move a few for pitching.

[yarnivek1972]

I am far from an expert on this, so I am hoping someone who knows more will answer your question because I am curious too! But I will give it a shot here (these are my estimates, no firm basis for my figures):

 

CJ Cron: 5-7M

Miguel Sano: 4-5M

Ehire Adrianza: 2M

Eddie Rosario: 6-8M

Byron Buxton: 5-6M

Jose Berrios: 3-4M

Sam Dyson: 6-8M

Taylor Rogers: 3-4M

Trevor May: 2M

Tyler Duffey: 1M

 

Total: 37-47M

 

These are estimates based on prior year's arbitration salaries and increases. I did not compare these figures to what other players have received in arbitration. If any of these figures are egregiously low or high, let me know as I am not an expert.

I don’t think Buxton gets over $4 mil. Keep in mind, he’s missed basically half the year. That matters. Sano could get $6 mil. Berrios’ might be a tad high too for a first timer. Kinda will depend on how he finishes. If he finishes like he’s pitched in August, I don’t think he gets over $ 3 mil. If he finishes strong, he could.

[Mike Sixel]

Lots of fretting about next year's team here. Lots of hints from posters that that task will be at best extremely difficult. I just don't understand why one would be so pessimistic. This FO made a couple of miscalculations no doubt, but those pale in comparison to all the really astute moves. And keep in mind that their priority going into 2019 was to get enertia going with all the "infrastructure" things like the development process, technology, etc. They, like all of us, miscalculated regarding just how good this team would be. Had they known ahead of time how many things would gel, I'm guessing they would have gotten more aggressive.

 

Thad Levine recently surmised out loud that he expected only one of the rotation spots to be filled from the internal pipeline. They have lots of candidates, although I think it's safe to say none of these guys fill most of us with confidence: Thorpe, Littell, Smeltzer, Dobnak, Gonsalves, Poppen, Stewart, Colina...who am I missing? The point is, they have numbers, and it's the 5th spot, and it's one spot. I fully expect they'll bring back two guys, I'd guess Odo and Pinieda, maybe even QO Gibson, and then find one quality FA to headline the rotation with Berrios.

 

I don't see them needing help elsewhere, other than maybe to bring Castro back. Cron can handle 1st for another year. Someone will surface like Arraez did this season. Kirilloff? Raley? Rooker? Larnach? Perhaps that will be Cron's time to find himself in a similar situation as Schoop did this year.

 

They don't need a 1st or 3rd baseman from outside, and they surely don't need "a few relievers". Unlike last off-season, when they short-changed themselves, adding one good relief arm over this coming off-season might do the trick.

 

All of this doesn't seem to be insurmountable to me. The opposite maybe.

They need a first baseman if they don't keep Cron. I don't get how that was hard to understand. He costs way more than a rookie....

 

And if people think they don't need bullpen help... They DFAd half their beginning of the year bullpen. They'll need depth.

[Mike Sixel]

Filling a hole at the trade deadline is a different animal than filling that same hole during the off season. According to different sources on MLB Trade Rumors and MLB.Com, our favorite team was on most, if not all of the usual suspects at the trade deadline. When the rumored price was made available it was simply much too high to even consider. The FO did say we would be all in, if we were in contention. What they didn't say was we would pay any price, even if it would damage our future.

 

Looks to me we have plenty of options to fill our staff, so we can continue to dominate the Central. Once you make the play-offs anything can happen. The goal should be to build a team to win the Central every year. Those who feel our favorite team owes it to fans to build a team than can win the World Series every year on paper, don't fully understand mid-market teams, or realize how much money would be wasted on overpriced free agency contracts.

 

Falvey is surely in the running for Baseball Executive of the Year.

No idea why you quoted my post, as I don't see any relation to your post. I literally said trade Rosario to build a long term winner.....

[Mike Sixel]

I get this, but what's also unprecedented is the immediate opportunity and the financial capacity to take advantage of it. I disregard the common notions about historical behavior on the part of the organization. I believe Ryan's firing marked a dramatic change in viewpoint about what can be defined as prudent investing in the business. That doesn't mean this new FO will do stupid things financially, but I think they'll judge it to be smart to commit dollars longer term to pitchers like Odo and Pinieda. I'd agree with you that the leap of faith is in being optimistic that they'll outbid the competition for a front rotation arm in FA.

They aren't the only team with money. Has any team ever signed three number three quality starters in one free agency period? I'd be shocked if they had.

[JW24]

 

I don’t think Buxton gets over $4 mil. Keep in mind, he’s missed basically half the year. That matters. Sano could get $6 mil. Berrios’ might be a tad high too for a first timer. Kinda will depend on how he finishes. If he finishes like he’s pitched in August, I don’t think he gets over $ 3 mil. If he finishes strong, he could.

I did want to estimate on the high side of the spectrum. I don't think the Twins would have to pay the $47M high-end estimate I made.

 

Has anyone started a thread dedicated to the Twins potential arbitration situation this offseason, as well as opinions from those who comment on TD? I would love to discuss further, but this thread is probably not the most appropriate place to do so.

[yarnivek1972]

I did want to estimate on the high side of the spectrum. I don't think the Twins would have to pay the $47M high-end estimate I made.

 

Has anyone started a thread dedicated to the Twins potential arbitration situation this offseason, as well as opinions from those who comment on TD? I would love to discuss further, but this thread is probably not the most appropriate place to do so.

It’s probably somewhere in a thread titled looking ahead to 2020 or something like that.

[Major League Ready]

 

Sign 3 FA pitchers (2 current Twins plus another top arm)

 

I don't see resigning a free agent in the same light as signing a FA from another team. Perhaps this is a tad optimistic but historically players have shown a preference to sign with their current team. It does not seem unreasonable to think we can sign 2 of the 3. 

 

Signing one of the top tier guys is always a challenge for a small or mid market team. It will be a challenge which I acknowledged. Many of those players want the spotlight of a big market. Keep in mind this started with me saying the team is well-positioned, meaning we are positioned financially and the team is now quite attractive to free agents who want to win.

 

If they were able to get one of the top guys, I could see them only signing one of the current 3 and filling the 5th spot from within. I could also see Gibson/Pineda being resigned because they won't be crazy expensive and the term will be 2-3 years

 

Back to the point that started this tangent ... This team has a very good core, a deep farm system including a handful of potential stars still in the minors and no dead weight contracts after this year. Plus, we will be coming of a season with near 100 wins. That's pretty darn well positioned. 

[Mike Sixel]

I agree they are well positioned. I have no idea if they can take advantage or not. It would be unprecedented to acquire three good starters in one year.

[Jham]

I don't see resigning a free agent in the same light as signing a FA from another team. Perhaps this is a tad optimistic but historically players have shown a preference to sign with their current team. It does not seem unreasonable to think we can sign 2 of the 3.

 

Signing one of the top tier guys is always a challenge for a small or mid market team. It will be a challenge which I acknowledged. Many of those players want the spotlight of a big market. Keep in mind this started with me saying the team is well-positioned, meaning we are positioned financially and the team is now quite attractive to free agents who want to win.

 

If they were able to get one of the top guys, I could see them only signing one of the current 3 and filling the 5th spot from within. I could also see Gibson/Pineda being resigned because they won't be crazy expensive and the term will be 2-3 years

 

Back to the point that started this tangent ... This team has a very good core, a deep farm system including a handful of potential stars still in the minors and no dead weight contracts after this year. Plus, we will be coming of a season with near 100 wins. That's pretty darn well positioned.

I guess. I just think we're in better position this year and missed opportunities to get better for this year AND next year. so we don't have as much to do this off-season. Last year we thought we'd be good and played ourselves into a hole we never got out of. This year we had an 11.5 game head start. Luck always plays a role. Be nice to take advantage.

[jokin]

Breaking Nick Anderson News Update:

 

Nick Anderson proved that he is actually human last night in Houston.

 

The bad news:

 

Jose Altuve hit a 96 MPH FB, the first pitch Anderson threw to him, over the CF fence in Minute Maid Park.

 

Anderson's ERA in August is now up to 0.84 and FIP is a more earthly 0.64 with the one ER against him.

 

The good news:

 

Anderson was inserted into a one-run ballgame, with the bases loaded, in the midst of a huge Astros rally to take the lead.... to face the Astros' Top of The Order Murderer's Row, starting with George Springer.

 

Anderson proceeded to strike out Springer swinging, to end the 6th inning threat.

 

After yielding the 7th inning leadoff HR to Altuve, Anderson calmly got two of the other best hitters in baseball, Michael Brantley to pop out on a weak infield fly, and then get Alex Bregman on another swinging strike out.

 

On 17 pitches thrown by Anderson, 15 were located in the strike zone (although 4 were incorrectly called balls by the home plate umpire). This guy fearlessly pounds the strike zone, even against 4 of the very best hitters in MLB! Contrast that with the Twins "nibblers"? -> Are you as sick of watching all of these 3-2 counts as I am?

 

Now try to envision some of the methods and outcomes of Twins hurlers in a similar situation come playoff time. Other than Rogers, I have little faith in a more positive outcome anywhere close to what Anderson accomplished.

 

BTW.....

Anderson's K/9 for August now stands at ~17 and in 11 innings pitched has 20 Ks and O BBs.

[ashbury]

Anderson was inserted into a one-run ballgame, with the bases loaded, in the midst of a huge Astros rally to take the lead.... to face the Astros' Top of The Order Murderer's Row, starting with George Springer.

 

Anderson proceeded to strike out Springer swinging, to end the 6th inning threat.

 

After yielding the 7th inning leadoff HR to Altuve, Anderson calmly got two of the other best hitters in baseball, Michael Brantley to pop out on a weak infield fly, and then get Alex Bregman on another swinging strike out.

So you're saying... he was brought in with the bases loaded, and the second batter he faced launched a home run to give the opponents the lead.

 

[Linus]

The only way I bring Gibson back is if he takes 5th starter money

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

The only way I bring Gibson back is if he takes 5th starter money

 

Yeah, there is no way I am giving Gibson big money. Also, Perez should not be retained. The Twins can find similar production from their "5th" starter for much cheaper; either in house, or taking a chance on a low level FA.

 

I wouldn't be against the Twins bringing back Odo and Big Mike. I think that would be ideal, but I think both will be looking for bigger deals than the Twins are willing to give. I firmly believe that the Twins will trade for a SP this season...whether it be by trading minor league depth, or someone like Rosario.

[Mike Sixel]

Rosario is not returning a major league starting pitcher.

[jokin]

 

So you're saying... he was brought in with the bases loaded, and the second batter he faced launched a home run to give the opponents the lead.

 

 

Nope. That's not what I said. The Astros rallied to gain the lead and he put out the 6th inning fire by striking out Springer. Altuve led off the 7th and gave the 'Stros a 2-run lead.

 

Anderson indeed proved he was human, yet fearless. And should the Twins somehow face the Astros in the playoffs in a similar situation, I would much rather see Anderson in that situation than anyone on the current Twins relief corps.... 

 

  (unless Graterol somehow turns into the Second Coming of Mariano Rivera over the next month- we can only hope...)

[howieramone2]

 

Rosario is not returning a major league starting pitcher.

Rosario would yield well over 50% of the starting pitchers in The Show. I'm guessing you mean a mythical ace. In that case, he would be a fine headliner in a blockbuster trade.

 

If they decide to go relievers, he would bring back 3 or 4 Fearless Nick Andersons.

[Mike Sixel]

Rosario would yield well over 50% of the starting pitchers in The Show. I'm guessing you mean a mythical ace. In that case, he would be a fine headliner in a blockbuster trade.

 

If they decide to go relievers, he would bring back 3 or 4 Fearless Nick Andersons.

Rosario is a corner outfielder with two years of control left, who won't be cheap, who puts up one or two fWAR. That isn't returning a number three starter.

 

The only team trading for Rosario types are contenders. Which contender has a good pitcher to spare?

[jokin]

 

If they decide to go relievers, he would bring back 3 or 4 Fearless Nick Andersons.

 

September 3 "Fearless Nick Anderson" update:

 

Innings Pitched- 1.1 (High Leverage situation)

Batters faced- 4

Strikeouts- 4

Swinging Ks- 3

K/9- 27

K%- 100%

Pitches- 18

Pitches In Strike Zone- 17 ( 2 mistakenly called balls)

FBs- 15 (Avg ~96 MPH)

Sliders- 3 (2 for swinging Strike 3s)

ERA- 0.00

FIP- -2.78

 

Maybe "Supremely Confident Nick Anderson" would be a better moniker?

(I'd settle for even one more Nick Anderson on the current Twins roster).

[jokin]

 

Rosario is a corner outfielder with two years of control left, who won't be cheap, who puts up one or two fWAR.

 

Nick Anderson now has 2 fWAR for the season. (Anderson = Rogers)

 

Eddie Rosario has 1.1 fWAR for the season.

 

Pretty simple to do the math.

[howieramone2]

 

Rosario is a corner outfielder with two years of control left, who won't be cheap, who puts up one or two fWAR. That isn't returning a number three starter.

The only team trading for Rosario types are contenders. Which contender has a good pitcher to spare?

Rosario is equally attractive to contenders and non-contenders. A workable definition of a #3, is a starter you would trust to start a play-off game. I'm guessing our favorite team will seek a #3 for Rosario, and if push comes to shove, we can easily sweeten the deal with our deep farm system.

[howieramone2]

 

Nick Anderson now has 2 fWAR for the season. (Anderson = Rogers)

 

Eddie Rosario has 1.1 fWAR for the season.

 

Pretty simple to do the math.

Rosario has accumulated 5 times the career fWAR of Anderson and is over a year younger.

[Mike Sixel]

Rosario is equally attractive to contenders and non-contenders. A workable definition of a #3, is a starter you would trust to start a play-off game. I'm guessing our favorite team will seek a #3 for Rosario, and if push comes to shove, we can easily sweeten the deal with our deep farm system.

Why is a non contender trading for a guy that is not cheap, and has two years of control left?

[howieramone2]

 

Why is a non contender trading for a guy that is not cheap, and has two years of control left?

Being a non-contender is not a permanent affliction. Most teams make trades to become better, and Rosario is a fine player. If I recall correctly, he received a substantial number of All-Star votes the past 2 seasons.

[nicksaviking]

Why is a non contender trading for a guy that is not cheap, and has two years of control left?

Watching how Cincinnati, Cleveland, SF, AZ and the Mets have operated of late, I don’t think there’s simply contender and non-contender buckets anymore. And I don’t think many teams are predictable in their actions any longer.