Second place

[old nurse]

With the teams all having a lot of games with weak teams it could well take 100 wins to make the playoffs even as a wild card team. Contrast that with the NL with a little more mediocrity could have 4 teams in with less than 90 wins.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

That ERA hides the large number of unearned runs......Twins are 12th in runs allowed. 

Not according to mlb.com ... The Twins are 5th best in runs allowed as well as 5th best in earned runs allowed.

 

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=min#playerType=ALL&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Team+pitching&game_type='R'&season=2019&season_type=ANY&league_code='AL'&sectionType=st&statType=pitching&page=1&ts=1565729545633&team_id=&sortColumn=r&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0

 

[Vanimal46]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-tumble-out-of-first-place/

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not according to mlb.com ... The Twins are 5th best in runs allowed as well as 5th best in earned runs allowed.

 

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=min#playerType=ALL&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Team+pitching&game_type='R'&season=2019&season_type=ANY&league_code='AL'&sectionType=st&statType=pitching&page=1&ts=1565729545633&team_id=&sortColumn=r&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0

 

There you have it, I had all MLB......but sure, 5th in the AL only. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Lots of teeth gnashing around these parts over falling into second place after having an 11.5 game lead. Allow me to note this:

 

The Twins are one of five teams in baseball to have over a .600 record. Obviously, Cleveland is one of them. The other three have leads of 9, 10, and 18.5 games. Unfortunately the Twins are in the only division that happens to have two .600 win teams.

 

The Twins are a good team. Cleveland is a good team. Minnesota started out hot, and then Cleveland got hot. I think it’s gonna be a dogfight down the stretch. Buckle up!

[cjj td]

 

I read a stat that 35% of all stats are misleading to prove a point...

Just like here! It's amazing the stats and mental gymnastics to justify blowing an 11.5 game lead in 2 months isn't a big deal.

Lies, Damn Lies,... and Statistics

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah, because that's what people are saying. It's disingenuous comments like this that just create a lot of nonsense on this board. Anyone with half a brain understands that the Twins play over the last 2 months has played a part in them dropping to 2nd place. Apparently it takes the other half to consider that the Indians playing at an over .700 clip in the same span is also very significant.

 

But hey, no middle ground, pick a side and grab the pitch fork.

Some people are saying that though.

Posters have said, the Twins have played fine, the Indians are just red hot.

 

The Twins have not played fine.

The Twins just hosted Cleveland for 4 games at home. They had their chance to make a statement, and they blew it.

 

Several posters here understand that it's taken both red hot play from Cleveland AND poor play from the Twins to lose the lead, but not everyone.

If you won't take my word, I can go through and bump all the posts saying exactly what I just satirized in the post you quoted. Plenty are posting that the Twins don't share blame.

[twinsnorth49]

 

Some people are saying that though.
Posters have said, the Twins have played fine, the Indians are just red hot.

The Twins have not played fine.
The Twins just hosted Cleveland for 4 games at home. They had their chance to make a statement, and they blew it.

Several posters here understand that it's taken both red hot play from Cleveland AND poor play from the Twins to lose the lead, but not everyone.
If you won't take my word, I can go through and bump all the posts saying exactly what I just satirized in the post you quoted. Plenty are posting that the Twins don't share blame.

Most people understand the bolded part but the extremes are more popular around here. It's more fun to mock viewpoints than to give anyone the benefit of the doubt. I get the way it rolls. 

 

I tip my cap to the Indians, they've been flat out fantastic, soft schedule or not.

[Mr. Brooks]

Most people understand the bolded part but the extremes are more popular around here. It's more fun to mock viewpoints than to give anyone the benefit of the doubt. I get the way it rolls.

 

I tip my cap to the Indians, they've been flat out fantastic, soft schedule or not.

You mock legitimate viewpoints that you don't agree with all the time, particularly in game threads, so I'm not sure what gives you the moral high ground regarding that?

Is it that you believe that arguments that are critical of the club are more deserving, or are you just not aware that you do that?

 

Plenty of people have argued that the Twins haven't shared the blame in losing this lead. It's not even close to just some extreme minority on the fringes.

 

Yes Cleveland has been red hot. I'm not sure it's reasonable to suggest that the Twins could have kept pace. But the problem is, with an 11.5 game lead, they didn't have to keep pace.

Just play .600 ball (which is perfectly reasonable) instead of .500 ball, and take care of business when you have them at home for 4 games (splitting should have been the bare minimum expectation if this team considers itself legit, winning 3 is a reasonable ask at home), and they'd still have a 5.5 or 6.5 game lead.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not only that, but Baldelli showed no sense of urgency, or desire to keep the accelerator down.

 

Many good posters questioned his strategy of giving frequent off days to some of our best players all the time.

 

When the lead got to 3 or 4, I stated that was a nice luxury when they were up 11 games, but at some point you have to start running your best 9 guys out there everyday.

 

Garver barely plays half the games, I have no idea why.

 

If they lose the division by a game or two, I think it'll be perfectly fair to ask whether playing your best 9 guys (almost) everyday could have been enough to make up that deficit.

[MABB1959]

It is hard to stay positive after what we have been through the last 10 years and while we were not sellers this year we certainly were not buyers.  What got to me most is an MLB article titled "Contenders need these 10 guys to step up"  Twins are not mentioned as a contender but Cleveland is.  What does that say?  If you were trying to be positive you could say they are all playing their best but I would put Buxton, Sano, Cruz, Berrios or even Rosario as someone who needs to step up and take the lead in their recent struggles. 

[jkcarew]

If the Twins would have played .575 baseball after June 2 (a 93-win pace across an entire season), they would have finished with 99-100 wins. Would 4 fewer wins across those last 102 games be a 'collapse'? Historical? We'll see what happens.

 

The magnitude of this swing...and the swings that could still happen...are the result of a horrendous imbalance in competition, and the unbalanced schedule. You have two 'good' teams in a division and league where they will play nearly half of their schedule against truly historically awful teams, teams that were never even trying to win...Seattle, Baltimore, Miami, Kansas City, Detroit, Chicago...(though ChiSox just bad, not historically bad...and 'trying'). The math possibilities are unprecedented.

[Mr. Brooks]

If the Twins would have played .575 baseball after June 2 (a 93-win pace across an entire season), they would have finished with 99-100 wins. Would 4 fewer wins across those last 102 games be a 'collapse'? Historical? We'll see what happens.

 

The magnitude of this swing...and the swings that could still happen...are the result of a horrendous imbalance in competition, and the unbalanced schedule. You have two 'good' teams in a division and league where they will play nearly half of their schedule against truly historically awful teams, teams that were never even trying to win...Seattle, Baltimore, Miami, Kansas City, Detroit, Chicago...(though ChiSox just bad, not historically bad...and 'trying'). The math possibilities are unprecedented.

The Twins and Indians are in the same division. There is no horrendous imbalance in competition. They play nearly identical schedules.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins and Indians are in the same division. There is no horrendous imbalance in competition. They play nearly identical schedules.

 

Not at the same time .... which leads to variance during the year.

 

Also, teams do have injuries, and different starting pitchers. While I agree with your general point, there is an interesting article on Fangraphs about Pittsburgh's collapse, and how who got to play them during this streak might have greatly influenced the playoffs (or might not). 

 

The teams playing MN with Buxton and Cruz out have a much easier contest than playing against them when they are both in the lineup, for example.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not at the same time .... which leads to variance during the year.

 

Also, teams do have injuries, and different starting pitchers. While I agree with your general point, there is an interesting article on Fangraphs about Pittsburgh's collapse, and how who got to play them during this streak might have greatly influenced the playoffs (or might not).

 

The teams playing MN with Buxton and Cruz out have a much easier contest than playing against them when they are both in the lineup, for example.

Sure. And, there will always be outliers, but since both teams play 162 games, against nearly identical schedules, and all teams deal with injuries, I'd expect that to balance out the vast majority of the time.

[jkcarew]

 

The Twins and Indians are in the same division. There is no horrendous imbalance in competition. They play nearly identical schedules.

No. When two competing teams have such a large number of games against really, really bad teams....the likelihood that each of the competitors take turns stringing together ridiculous hot streaks increases. The possibility that one of the teams can 'stumble' to a 97-win 2nd-place finish increases.

[mikelink45]

When we look at ratings in the AL it is important to look at the leagues - who is playing for the post season and who is playing for draft positions.  In the Central there are 2/5 teams playing hard, in the East 3/5 and in the West 2/5  that is 7 teams out of 15 that really count so if we place 5th or worst on any list we are potentially below playoff status.  

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

There you have it, I had all MLB......but sure, 5th in the AL only. 

No problem. Easy misunderstanding.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Ok, then good. Things back where they are supposed to be.

[AlwaysinModeration]

If the Twins would have played .575 baseball after June 2 (a 93-win pace across an entire season), they would have finished with 99-100 wins. Would 4 fewer wins across those last 102 games be a 'collapse'? Historical? We'll see what happens.

What’s amazing about this post is this:

 

Twins through June 2: 40-18.

Twins since June 2: 46-34, or....wait for it....

 

A .575 winning percentage! It’s like a magic trick, jkcarew. I don’t know how you did it.

 

In any event, I just looked up this “second place” thread. The Twins fell half a game behind Cleveland, for exactly one day, Tuesday, August 13. Then they put the pedal to the medal, winning 15 of their past 20 games, gaining seven games back in the standings. Six of the next eleven games against Cleveland, though, so there is still work to be done.

[jkcarew]

 

What’s amazing about this post is this:

Twins through June 2: 40-18.
Twins since June 2: 46-34, or....wait for it....

A .575 winning percentage! It’s like a magic trick, jkcarew. I don’t know how you did it.

In any event, I just looked up this “second place” thread. The Twins fell half a game behind Cleveland, for exactly one day, Tuesday, August 13. Then they put the pedal to the medal, winning 15 of their past 20 games, gaining seven games back in the standings. Six of the next eleven games against Cleveland, though, so there is still work to be done.

Well....I pulled .575 out of my ___ ...primarily because it worked out to a 93-win season...and I didn't thing anyone could argue that that would have been accepted as a 'wonderful' pace heading into the season...and a 'fine' pace over any stretch. And it would seem unreasonable to call that pace anything near a 'historic collapse'. And partly because, honestly, I didn't see the Twins doing much worse that .575 after June 2 given the how the schedule would unfold.

 

Blind squirrel. We'll see. The real difference since that post is that Cleveland no longer looks to be on their own way to 100 wins.