Article: Trade Deadline Thread: How Far Would You Go to Add an Ace?

[Tom Froemming]

It’s clear this 2019 Twins lineup is special. The pitching staff? Not quite. How far would you be willing to go for balance? Would you trade Royce Lewis? Alex Kirilloff? How about both?

 

Would you trade Byron Buxton? Reports are indicating that's what it will take to land Noah Syndergaard.Friday, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reported that the Mets asking price for Noah Syndergaard is sky high. According Neal’s sources, the Mets are “eyeing both Lewis and Kirilloff as part of a package for Syndergaard.”

 

Wow. Royce Lewis AND Alex Kirilloff ... and that’s just PART of the package?

 

Last night, La Velle passed along another trade tidbit, saying that the Mets’ asking price included Byron Buxton.

 

It’s not at all surprising the Twins were “turned off” by that price, but from the Mets’ perspective, the worst thing that could happen is the Twins say no. Why not ask, right?

 

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that an executive who has communicated with the Mets said “They are definitely trading Syndergaard.” If that truly is the case, the Mets front office will need to lower its asking price, but they can certainly expect to command a hefty return for the 26-year-old Syndergaard, who still has two more seasons of team control.

 

The beauty of the deadline is this will all have to be resolved one way or another by 3 pm CT tomorrow afternoon.

 

La Velle’s piece called Syndergaard a target “no longer viable,” but only time will tell. That price may drop. Among the bullpen targets the Twins could pivot to, Neal listed Kirby Yates, Greg Holland, Archie Bradley and Mychal Givens.

 

What do I think is going to happen? Well, here’s nearly 15 minutes of me sharing my thoughts on the deadline, the front office’s intentions and some of what my expectations are. This could end up looking really, really bad. It’s so difficult to even guess what may happen, since this is the first real contending Twins team of the Derek Falvey era.

 

 

To answer my own question purposed in the headline, the furthest I’d personally go to trade for an ace-calibur pitcher would be Alex Kirilloff as the marquee piece. Cody wrote an article last night that asked Is Alex Kirilloff Expendale? I think to a certain degree he is. That’s much less of a shot at Alex as it is an indication of how stacked this organization is with corner outfield/first base options right now.

 

It’s not that I view Lewis as completely untouchable, but it’d take multiple good, long-term pieces coming back. There’s a chance Royce both reaches his ceiling and stays at shortstop. If that happens, he’ll be among the most valuable players in the league. It’d take a lot to walk away from that.

 

Not that I don’t believe in Alex. There’s no questioning his feel for hitting, and I think he’s more athletic than most people give him credit for, but corner outfielders or first basemen are easy to find, relatively speaking. C.J. Cron hit 30 homers and was non-tendered. The entire current Twins outfield will remain in tact for multiple seasons and there are some other attractive outfielders in the pipeline as well.

 

If the Twins end up aiming lower on the trade market, there are reasons why I could understand that. This is the first year on the job for Rocco Baldelli, Wes Johnson and Jeremy Hefner. This is a franchise on the rise, not one who sees its window closing.

 

A lot of the players carrying this team right now will be around for years to come and the minor league system ranks among the best in the game. That doesn’t guarantee you anything, but I feel like there’s a very good chance we’re entering an extended period of sustained winning baseball in Twins Territory.

 

Even if they aim gets lower, this front office still has plenty of incentive to make some moves. In mid-June, I wrote about the potential impending roster crunch this offseason. Lewin Diaz was among the guys I mentioned who needed to be added to the 40-man roster at the end of the season. He’s already been shipped out to Miami.

 

Beyond all the top prospects is a nice tier of players that should be attractive to a team who has a barren system. Ben Rortvedt, Ryan Jeffers, Jose Miranda and (though he’s injured right now) Travis Blankenhorn could be dangled for more pitching help. Guys performing in Triple-A like Nick Gordon or Jaylin Davis would have some appeal to certain teams. And those are just some of the bats.

 

This is going to sound harsh, but it wouldn’t take a lot to improve the outlook of the Twins bullpen right now. Even marginal upgrades would go a long way. They’ve looked good at times, but it’s just not realistic to roll with rookies Lewis Thorpe, Sean Poppen and Cody Stashak in the bullpen down the stretch.

 

So while the market for a top of the rotation starter may seem steep right now, there’s still time for things to change. If prices don't come down, I still fully expect the Twins to make multiple moves between now and the deadline, given their incentive to clear some room.

 

I still can’t believe how quiet things have been league-wide to this point. Things could get nuts leading up to tomorrow’s 3 pm CT deadline.

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

Twins Moving on From SP Trade Targets?

What Sergio Romo Brings to the Twins Bullpen

Could the Twins Afford to Take on Zack Greinke’s Contract?

Trade Deadline Thread: The Rumor Mill is Working Overtime

Trade Deadline Topics: Prospects, Scouting, Rumors

Trade Deadline Thread: What To Do About the Rotation?

The Gauntlet 1.2; A Complete Breakdown of the Top Relief Arms

For Enlow and Other Minor Leaguers, “No One Is Safe” At Trade Deadline

Twins Won't Rule Out Trading For Lance Lynn

 

JEREMY'S DEADLINE SERIES (Part VI Coming Soon)

Let's Make A Deal, Part V: Are We Getting Noah Syndergaard or Someone Else?

Let's Make A Deal, Part IV: The Sellers

Let's Make A Deal, Part III: The Ammunition

Let's Make A Deal, Part II: Payroll

Let's Make A Deal, Part I: 2020

 

Click here to view the article

[Dantes929]

I don't know why they stopped there.  Why didn't they ask for Kiriloff, Lewis, Garver, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco and Berrios along with cash to sweeten the deal?    Hey, I'd like to get the guy.   After all, with their current ERA;s he would fit nicely in the 5th spot if we go to a 6 man rotation.   Berrios 2.94, Odorizzi 3.84, Gibson, 4.10, Pineda 4.30, Sydergaard 4.33 (NL by the way so maybe he falls to the 6th spot)  Perez 4.38..... I am kidding.   I would like to get him but Kiriloff, Enlow and maybe Gordon is as far as I would go since I liked Stroman just as well and a lesser package got him.  If I am a Mets fan or owner of course I would ask for the moon because they have Stroman now that would help fill out the rotation for next year.   Plus they are not out of it for this year either.   Mostly what I am saying for the Twins sake.  Is this really an ace?   10 quality starts out of 20.    It would be the essence of buying high on Syndergaard and selling low on the prospects.    Go get Lynn.

[Brandon]

I'm thinking Minor is the way to go here. Or relievers.

[beckmt]

I would love an ace, but Mets seem to want to buy low (they won the Stroman trade) and sell very high.  Mets have a new GM who wants to prove NY can get what they want.  Work on relievers. but I bet prices come down today or tomorrow from the selling teams.  Greinke would be nice, but Twins are on his no trade list for a reason.  Problem is that the Twins need relievers known for their control as we all have seen that umps swallow their right arms, if the relievers are known to have control issues, against the Yankees.  May and Duffey have the curveballs that work well against the Yankees, but they hang way too many of them.  Maybe Jake McGee and Givens or Bradley (they would not cost an arm or a leg) would work.  All have stuff, just on off years, but we all know how fast relievers can turn things around.  Might touch LeClerc, but control may be too big an issue and he comes with a lot of control to sell very low on.  

Maybe because the Twins farm system is good, a lot of these sellers will seem to think they can set a high price and make a point that if the twins will not meet the price to sell elsewhere.  Toronto seems to have made a decision to sell Stroman to an NL club, so if he works well they would not have to see him also.  

Good luck, but the Twins have to make deals for at least 2 relievers if not 3 down this road.

[twinsfanstreif]

I want Syndergaard but not even close to that price. I would consider trading Lewis or Kirilloff for him but not both and definitely not Buxton or really any other of our young building blocks players

[Dave Overlund]

I don't honestly believe either of those were the Mets' final offer. That was probably their "ask high" starting point, but it's an easier sell for Twins fans when you put it the way LaVelle did. 

This way, when fans like me get frustrated at yet another year the FO sat on its hands, other fans can say 'WOULD YOU REALLY GIVE UP BUXTON?' 

[SarasotaBill]

I don't want to pay a "Archer" price based on potential instead of production. 

[Bandit34]

The Mets are really taking it to us. First they take two games that really, REALLY hurt us after a successful series against Cleveland, then they take the starter, Stroman, that we really needed, and now they want to take Buxton from us along with our best prospects. I think we need to just stay away from the Mets!

[bighat]

Wow, Mets asked for Buxton in the Syndegaard deal? Seriously that's just wrong on so many levels.

 

And the Blue Jays' asking price for Stroman demanded that one of either Lewis or Kiriloff be included? And then they took the garbage pile prospects from the Mets? I don't get it.

 

MLBTradeRumors article says Twins have pivoted to look for more bullpen arms now. Okay, okay, let's get some already and play ball!

[big dog]

Buxton?  No.  I'm going to do you a favor and forget we ever had this talk.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

if that was the ask, Falvey was right to hang up the phone. The Mets won't unload Thor with that type of ask. 

 

I'm guessing prices will come down. You're starting to see it with the Stroman and Romo trades. It should be pretty clear to the Met's brass that Thor won't get them that much.

 

As for what I'd trade. I'm not sure. It really depends if the FO thinks they can fix him, because right now, Thor is not an ace. He was an ace. If they are confident that they can fix him, sure, I'd part with one of the big 3 as a headliner to bring him here.

[nicksaviking]

I'd like an ace, but I don't know that one is available this year. Give me a reasonable Syndergaard deal; I'd be OK with Robbie Ray or Zack Greinke, but all of them would be slotting in behind Berrios.

[SenatorsGuy]

I know it should be an obvious point but SYNDERGAARD IS NOT AN ACE.

[USAFChief]

Consider me skeptical over the "Mets want Buxton!!1!" report from LENIII. It's LENIII.

 

I know I'm in the minority, but I'd deal Lewis before he becomes Gordon.

[Vanimal46]

Consider me skeptical over the "Mets want Buxton!!1!" report from LENIII. It's LENIII.

 

I know I'm in the minority, but I'd deal Lewis before he becomes Gordon.

If we take LEN's reports at face value, then MLB GMs are no different than friends and family in fantasy football leagues.

[jud6312]

 

Consider me skeptical over the "Mets want Buxton!!1!" report from LENIII. It's LENIII.

 

I know I'm in the minority, but I'd deal Lewis before he becomes Gordon.

 

LEN3 is the best PR person the Twins have though.

[jud6312]

 

I don't honestly believe either of those were the Mets' final offer. That was probably their "ask high" starting point, but it's an easier sell for Twins fans when you put it the way LaVelle did. 

This way, when fans like me get frustrated at yet another year the FO sat on its hands, other fans can say 'WOULD YOU REALLY GIVE UP BUXTON?' 

 

I'm skeptical that it was, but their new GM seems completely inept at his job, so maybe it really was their best and final.

 

I've been critical of this FO, but maybe they got a read on the guy (or maybe dealt with him during his time as an agent), and realized it just wasn't going to happen.

 

I'd rather they back off of pipe dreams and focus on other more attainable things.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Mostly what I am saying for the Twins sake.  Is this really an ace?   10 quality starts out of 20.    It would be the essence of buying high on Syndergaard and selling low on the prospects.

Always difficult to know with pitchers, but I'm pretty confident this is the lowest Syndergaard's trade value is going to get. This would be buying low, in my eyes. *Assuming the asking price comes down, which I believe will.

 

I know it should be an obvious point but SYNDERGAARD IS NOT AN ACE.

I think you'd have been shouting the same thing about Gerrit Cole in his last year with the Pirates. Look at him now. Syndergaard has one of the most elite arsenals in the game. Put him in a situation to be comfortable and give him the information he needs to succeed and you've got an ace on your hands.

[USAFChief]

 

Always difficult to know with pitchers, but I'm pretty confident this is the lowest Syndergaard's trade value is going to get. This would be buying low, in my eyes.

 

I think you'd have been shouting the same thing about Gerrit Cole in his last year with the Pirates. Look at him now. Syndergaard has one of the most elite arsenals in the game. Put him in a situation to be comfortable and give him the information he needs to succeed and you've got an ace on your hands.

Precisely.

 

 

[Tibs]

What I would be willing to give up for a top tier pitcher is largely dependent on the years of team control for that pitcher. I’m not giving up Lewis for less than 3 years of the pitcher in return. The Twins can’t afford to make trades like that unless the financial strategy changes drastically.

 

Now other prospects are more expendable because of depth or talent. But the Twins always need to give a little consideration to the future when trading prospects.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm skeptical that it was, but their new GM seems completely inept at his job, so maybe it really was their best and final.

 

Most people seem to think the Mets did all right in the Stroman trade, even if the timing was a bit of a surprise. The Vargas salary dump seems fine. The deGrom extension is all right in its early stages.

 

They did poorly in the Cano trade for sure, although that was basically just a massive overpay for a closer.

[RedBull34]

I saw a quote stating the Mets GM was basically a kindergartner practicing finger-painting when it comes to these trade negotiations.

 

I fully understand starting at a high price, but asking for Buxton seems downright childish.  

 

If he asked for all the Twins top 100 prospects I'd understand (it wouldn't get the deal done obviously), but asking for a guy who is a key piece in a team looking to contend for a championship just seems more likely to stop a conversation then start one.

[Dantes929]

 

Always difficult to know with pitchers, but I'm pretty confident this is the lowest Syndergaard's trade value is going to get. This would be buying low, in my eyes. *Assuming the asking price comes down, which I believe will.

 

I think you'd have been shouting the same thing about Gerrit Cole in his last year with the Pirates. Look at him now. Syndergaard has one of the most elite arsenals in the game. Put him in a situation to be comfortable and give him the information he needs to succeed and you've got an ace on your hands.   

For every Cole and Verlander there is a Darvish and an Archer but that's the risk/reward part of the game.    Syndergaard hasn't been a top 10 Cy Young since 2016 but has been very good.   His year so far hasn't been that great and it is hard to argue he has been as good as Stroman who just went for not that much.   My point is Thor's trade value SHOULD be at its lowest but their reported ask would reflect value beyond his highest.     Your caveat of "Assuming the asking price comes down, which I believe will."  changes the whole dynamic.    Buxton plus top prospects would be buying high while selling our assets low.    If the asking price comes down to Kiriloff or Lewis plus lower prospects that changes everything.     Everyone here would like to get Thor and many would be ok with a slight overpay.    If the current asking price doesn't come down would you want to pay that to get him and would you consider that a reflection of a low point in Thor's value?     If the ask does come down then we have a different conversation.   I don't think the Mets want to part with him and are not considering the "lowest Syndergaard's trade value is going to get."  part of the equation.   They are asking what we would hope the Twins would ask for if someone came to us now wanting Berrios.    I get a bit attached to top prospects and don't like giving them up but it certainly projects like at least one of them will be blocked or one of the current guys we like will be expendable so I have come around to the idea of giving up some of the young talent for a guy like Thor.     If their ask DOES come down I hope we can pull the trigger.    What would you be willing to give up?

[strumdatjaguar]

I'd trade Sano or Garver (and two second tier prospects) for Syndegaard, but Buxton is off-limits.  The Twins win when Buck plays, and lose when he is out of the line-up.

[djvang]

I wouldn't give up much for Syndegaard. Too injury prone. I'm fine with them turning down bad deals. They need a starter and two relievers to help this year. That would be too expensive.

[hugelycat]

I don't think any prospect should be off limits. Our window is now, and we should be willing to trade long-term value for short-term success (as long as it's not the type of lopsided trade that LEN cites).

As far as whether Syndergaard is an ace, I'll leave that to the Twins to evaluate. They have a lot more information than I do, and they're in a better position to analyze why his results this year don't match his past.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'd trade Sano or Garver (and two second tier prospects) for Syndegaard, but Buxton is off-limits.  The Twins win when Buck plays, and lose when he is out of the line-up.

Really? Garver is putting up near MVP numbers as a catcher this year. No way he should be traded if the WS is at all something we want to get to.

[Monkeypaws]

 

I don't think any prospect should be off limits. Our window is now, and we should be willing to trade long-term value for short-term success (as long as it's not the type of lopsided trade that LEN cites).
 

The window is just opening. It could be open for a good long while, especially if there is a steady stream of MLB ready prospects in the pipeline, which is not quite yet the case. Next year it might be, but not if you trade away all the best ones.

 

 

[TFRazor]

 

I would top out at Kirloff, Garver, Romero, and Duran as my finalbest Offer for Syndegaard and Ramos. Your going to have to give up one of your top two prospects, and a major league starter to acquire Syndegaard that is top of rotation guy. Mets can wait to the offseason, time is of the essence for Twins, it's the penance you pay for waiting this long. Price of Poker is rough someone is going to pay the Piper. Twins want Syndergaard, they are going to feel some pain from the trade. Garvers a stud with the bat it takes type of player to garner a controllable starter that can strike people out. Romero only top pitching prospect we have that is major league ready it experience. I dont if i would do it admitting full well that is a boatload of talent to lose. Kirloff and Romero , Poppen for Stromen if Mets wanted to flip him. None of it would likely move Mets to do deal with Twins. I don't think Mets really want to move Syndergaard.

I really hope this is sarcasm because there is no way in h*ll I'm packaging garver for anyone. We may be sitting on one of the best offensive catchers in the league who has also improved defensively. You don't trade that.

[Tom Froemming]

 

If the ask does come down then we have a different conversation.   I don't think the Mets want to part with him and are not considering the "lowest Syndergaard's trade value is going to get."  part of the equation.   They are asking what we would hope the Twins would ask for if someone came to us now wanting Berrios.    I get a bit attached to top prospects and don't like giving them up but it certainly projects like at least one of them will be blocked or one of the current guys we like will be expendable so I have come around to the idea of giving up some of the young talent for a guy like Thor.     If their ask DOES come down I hope we can pull the trigger.    What would you be willing to give up?

Reports have indicated the Mets are definitely interested in parting with Syndergaard, but Jon Heyman recently reported that it seems more likely Zack Wheeler gets traded. That makes a lot of sense, since Wheeler is set to hit free agency at the end of this season.

 

But, let me answer your question anyway. I already said in the article the highest guy I'd feel comfortable potentially parting with is Alex Kirilloff. How do we get there? Since they're asking for Buxton, I'd respond by letting them know they'd have to throw in Wheeler/Seth Lugo and Pete Alonso in addition to Thor. Basically give them a dose of their own medicine in asking for something unrealistic. Of course the Mets would not do that trade, but I think that counter offer puts the Twins back in the driver's seat, now the Mets are on the defensive.

 

From there, I'd make the counter offer of Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers and Nick Gordon for Syndergaard. It's entirely possible the Mets just stop responding to messages at that point, and I'd be OK with that, but it's also possible they'd counter with asking to step it up from Larnach to Kirilloff and boom, you've led them where you were trying to get to in the first place.

 

Of course this is all just hypothetical speculation and the hidden element is we don't know what other teams are willing to offer the Mets or truly how motivated they are to move Thor.