Article: Twins Trade Lewin Diaz for RHP Sergio Romo, 2 Minor Leaguers

[bird]

 

This pretty closely tracks how I'm viewing it, after a night's sleep. A week ago I was saying I don't mind an overpay, because 40-man adds are looming and it's a false economy to haggle too much.

 

I just didn't expect to overpay for Sergio Romo.

 

And, it's an overpay, tacitly acknowledged by both sides, due to the inclusion of "an arm" and the ever-popular PTBNL, in return for what looks like a good bat.

 

Maybe I'm mis-under-estimating Vallimont, but the one scouting report I saw says his fastball sits in the low-90s, not mid-. A draftee from a small college, he's unlikely to have any significant impact in the majors. Which... can be said of nearly every pitcher drafted, but there are shades of likelihood. I'm going with "just an arm" until I see reason to change my mind about that. Maybe the coaches at Ft Myers or Cedar Rapids spotted something when he pitched against them that made them report, "he's just the kind of guy we could get an extra 3 MPH from".

 

I doubt that Diaz would have been a key as part of a package to making a bigger trade, so I guess I have to wait until after the deadline to try to infer whether this was the right use of him as a trade chip. If another trade does happen, involving us giving up as "a sweetener" a player I prize more, I'd have to wonder. That's really the only reason I care.

 

I want careful preservation of assets, I want aggressive use of those assets now - it's a fine line.

 

 

I'm not sure if it's an overpay or not. The FO guy for the Marlins described Diaz as "the best left-handed power hitter in the minor leagues", hyperbole most likely, but if not, it's an overpay.

 

I believe the MLB pipeline report on Vallimont mentioned that he hit 98MPH on the gun at some point in a short stint at Mercyhurst, so who knows, maybe our amateur scouts, who have some history with that DII program, have a book on Vallimont that makes them think he can be developed into something.

 

We should cheer for this FO to be aggressive traders. We have lived with a long history of passivity. Of letting prospects run their course and become free agents, get scooped up via Rule 5, or have the luster fade. Our own people should be the first to know. We should be better at trading a guy like Oswaldo Arcia before the rest of the league ALSO sees that his knucklehead syndrome is a limiting factor. I want a FO that's not afraid to lose a trade here and there.

 

 

[wabene]

"We should cheer for this FO to be aggressive traders. We have lived with a long history of passivity,"

I agree. It has been more interesting and much less exasperating following the current front office. I am confident another move is coming.

[sftwinsfan]

Time will tell on this trade, I don't mind Romo as a 2nd or 3rd piece to add to the bullpen.  He brings a veteran presence that could help the bullpen and is hopefully an upgrade over Parker.  I think people undervalue Diaz, he really only had the one bad year last year. He continued crushing the ball in AA and reportedly was above average on defense. He's hitting for average and power without striking out a ton. Twins could come to really regret this in a year or two with 1B and DH openings likely in 2021. On the other hand getting Villamont evens things up a bit and is an interesting arm and if he turns out this could be a win. 

[longstrangetrip]

 

Yep, This third-tier-type deal should have been do-able in early June.

 

But to be fair, Romo has been:

FIPping at 1.79 over his last 15 games... with a

0.61 ERA, and a

K/BB of 12/1, K/9 of 7.4 and a

WHIP of 0.89.

 

Over the exact same time frame, Morin's:

FIP is 5.28

5.40 ERA

K/9 of 3.09!

WHIP of 1.11

 

The Twins did their homework, and identified a playoff-experienced veteran riding a "Hot-Hand", that can potentially provide some "stability" to the pen; and, who they can possibly ride for maybe 2 months>>>

and only gave up a guy they likely were going to be unable to protect, anyway.

 

But yeah, there better be better names than Romo on the roster by next Wednesday night.

 

Romo was one of the best relievers in baseball 6 years ago, and off and on since then.  But he has been absolutely lights out in his past 15 outings...just 1 ER, 1 walk and no HRs.   I challenge you to find 5 ML relievers with better ERAs and WHIPs their past 15 (not a particularly tiny sample size).  Romo is known as a video addict who has made corrections in his delivery in the past with good results.  Who knows, maybe he detected a flaw in early June that was leading to the control issues he was experiencing with his slider.  For whatever reason, currently his command of his slider (which has always been terrific) is as good as it has ever been.  It's not likely he continue at the pace he has been on the past two months, but it's not unlikely that he can be close to it.  If he is, the Twins chances of winning the division have just skyrocketed...and they have committed grand theft larceny on the Marlins. 

[Rosterman]

Carlos Torres is the casuality. Made more money holding a roster spot this week and not pitching than Devin Smeltzer who gave us five good ones. 

 

Torres is now one of those few guys to play for the Twins but didn't play for the Twins!

 

Can you name the msot famous guy to hold that title? Chuck Schilling, acquired from the Red Sox and the extra body out of spring training who didn't see a game before being asked to go to the minors when rosters went to 25, refused assignment and retired.

Edited July 28, 2019 by Rosterman

[Dman]

 

Here's what pitching guru/mad scientist Kyle Boddy, founder of Driveline baseball, had to say: 

https://twitter.com/drivelinebases/status/1155346225010360320

So we know Vallimont is a guy familiar with and open to the kind of pitching instruction the Twins seem to be gravitating to.

 

Should remember the name Lewin Diaz as well.   The kid has a sweet swing and easy power, has improved his defense and has a good eye at the plate.   The Marlins got a good one so I hope Vallimont works out just as well for us.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The PTBNL will be a 145 pound 16 year old kid from the D.R. that will eventually make Luis Arraez look like a soccer player. That's how these things always play out.

you never know how these things turn out. It might be that the player to be named later is David Arias, later named David Ortiz.

If the sides cannot agree on a player, then cash is sent in lieu of the player. I don’t know if that is still the rule, or how often that happens. Or maybe it’s just a favor returned of some other sort.

 

Anyway, that would leave it at just the one minor leaguer, not 2 Minor Leaguers. Two sounds twice as good as one, I suppose.

[big dog]

I really like having a veteran guy in the bullpen, given that we currently have...who, Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers as our most senior guys?  Not counting May, whose seniority mostly comes on IR.  Happy to add more, of course, but this is a good piece.  The second pitcher seems to have at least as much of a shot as Diaz, at a position of much greater need.

 

I don't see how the Twins would have added Diaz to the 40-man next year, realistically.  I'm happy not to see him traded for "cash considerations".

 

[Mr. Brooks]

If the sides cannot agree on a player, then cash is sent in lieu of the player. I don’t know if that is still the rule, or how often that happens. Or maybe it’s just a favor returned of some other sort.

 

Anyway, that would leave it at just the one minor leaguer, not 2 Minor Leaguers. Two sounds twice as good as one, I suppose.

Given that they weren't up against an 11th hour deadline, isn't the most likely explanation is that it's a 2019 draft pick that can't technically be named yet?

[pierre75275]

I think many of us need to put this trade in perspective. This is more about improving depth in the minor league system than it is about acquiring a shut down reliever. We got a fifth rd draft pick that has shown some intreging early returns for someone who we very well could have lost in Nov. That makes the trade worth it.

On top of that we got a MLB 3 time world series champion reliever who can soak up innings down the stretch and who has invalubale expierience. Doesnt mean he wins the world series for us or even pushes the needle. See the trade for what it is

On top of that we got PTBNL which is a total shot in the dark.

All for someone who we would have lost for 25 grand in the rule 5 draft in Nov

[Mr. Brooks]

Should remember the name Lewin Diaz as well. The kid has a sweet swing and easy power, has improved his defense and has a good eye at the plate. The Marlins got a good one so I hope Vallimont works out just as well for us.

I loved the improvement Diaz made this year. But it's pretty unlikely he'd have even gotten a shot here until 2021 at the earliest. By which point he'd have burned 2 options.

 

We have Cron and Cruz next year, and Rooker at least, if not Kirilloff and Larnach are above him in the pecking order.

 

A lot would have had to go right (or wrong) for him to get a realistic shot here before his final option season.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Given that they weren't up against an 11th hour deadline, isn't the most likely explanation is that it's a 2019 draft pick that can't technically be named yet?

Sounds like a logical possibility that one of the recent Miami draftees might be on the Twins radar.

[jkcarew]

I consider this a conservative move...the type of move I would consider ‘smart’ when made by a club on the periphery of contention. You get a bullpen rental that should help at least marginally in leverage situations...and you exchange a prospect for which you have a pending roster dilemma for a decent, but further from the majors, prospect at a position of organizational need. I would think at least one, more aggressive, move is coming.

 

Also, fascinating to think what a difference less than 4 months makes. If this deal...involving Diaz...had been made on April 1 (not that such deals are often made in that time-frame), we all would have been dancing in the streets or doubled over in laughter at the incompetence of the Marlin FO.

[iastfan112]

 

Given that they weren't up against an 11th hour deadline, isn't the most likely explanation is that it's a 2019 draft pick that can't technically be named yet?

Could be either that or the player is conditional upon Romo's appearances or performance. Yours strikes me as more likely.

[Mr. Brooks]

Sounds like a logical possibility that one of the recent Miami draftees might be on the Twins radar.

Can any of the excellent draft day writers here tell us if there were any mid round picks that the Twins had on their radar that were sniped by Miami?

[jorgenswest]

I think many of us need to put this trade in perspective. This is more about improving depth in the minor league system than it is about acquiring a shut down reliever. We got a fifth rd draft pick that has shown some intreging early returns for someone who we very well could have lost in Nov. That makes the trade worth it.

On top of that we got a MLB 3 time world series champion reliever who can soak up innings down the stretch and who has invalubale expierience. Doesnt mean he wins the world series for us or even pushes the needle. See the trade for what it is

On top of that we got PTBNL which is a total shot in the dark.

All for someone who we would have lost for 25 grand in the rule 5 draft in Nov

I will give a grade if B or even A on this trade. I think the minor league aspect of this trade is a good fit for both teams.

 

I have a different goal at the deadline. I want the Twins to have a top 3 in the pen that can compete with the Yankees and Astros. This deal makes no progress on that goal. Where would Romo fit in either of those pens?

 

So the grade is an incomplete thus far. They still need two very good late inning relievers. My fear is their sites are set winning a deal for a Daniel Hudson instead of breaking the bank for a Ken Giles.

 

This is a nice safe trade.

[Riverbrian]

Once a trade is complete. The team trading the player can no longer take phone calls in an attempt to get a better package in return. 

 

In order to convince the team to stop taking phone calls... you have to provide them a reason to stop taking the phone calls by offering a package that they want or believe can't be eclipsed. 

 

Of course it's an overpay. 

 

An overpay is what it takes. 

 

We have improved our bullpen. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I will give a grade if B or even A on this trade. I think the minor league aspect of this trade is a good fit for both teams.

I have a different goal at the deadline. I want the Twins to have a top 3 in the pen that can compete with the Yankees and Astros. This deal makes no progress on that goal. Where would Romo fit in either of those pens?

So the grade is an incomplete thus far. They still need two very good late inning relievers. My fear is their sites are set winning a deal for a Daniel Hudson instead of breaking the bank for a Ken Giles.

This is a nice safe trade.

See, I think Romo lines up really well against the Yankees and Astros, though I *absolutely* want another pitcher better than him by the deadline.

 

As we saw in the Yankees series, they were often throwing out eight righties and Gregorius. The Astros' top ten (all the qualifying batters + Springer) are made up of seven righties and just three lefties.

 

Romo's RHB OPS against is just .632 this season. Sergio is a good step in the right direction for postseaosn alignment but more is definitely needed.

[jorgenswest]

See, I think Romo lines up really well against the Yankees and Astros, though I *absolutely* want another pitcher better than him by the deadline.

 

As we saw in the Yankees series, they were often throwing out eight righties and Gregorius. The Astros' top ten (all the qualifying batters + Springer) are made up of seven righties and just three lefties.

 

Romo's RHB OPS against is just .632 this season. Sergio is a good step in the right direction for postseaosn alignment but more is definitely needed.

The Yankees right handed batters crush right handed pitching. They do not do nearly as well against left handed pitching. Romo also has had the benefit of coming in to start innings this year. He has not pitched nearly as well with runners on base and certainly did not in 2018 when he has the more difficult role of coming in to put out a fire.

[TKGuy]

Good first move. I’d like to see another starter and two more relievers. I’d guess Perez could be a lefty in the pen the . Pretty interesting trade, I’m guessing that Balazovic may need to be moved, so this gets another high end arm to replace him at that level.

[brvama]

The mission is to improve the bullpen, preferably on the top end. With this trade and DFA of Torres, Romo definitely improves it by his replacement and jumping a couple of others. Now I wait for that person to challenge Rogers as our best. Even one will make me happy - two ecstatic. I just hope my liquor cabinet survives the wait.

[KirbyDome89]

 

So no move will be acceptable to you if the player isn't better than Taylor Rogers?
I hope they get 1 arm that is as good as, or better than Rogers, but IMO, expecting 3 guys better than Rogers isn't reasonable.

Acceptable is different than "like." They can rearrange low leverage guys all they want, and probably improve the pen to an extent, but that's shuffling deck chairs. They need arms (multiple) that are on par with Rodgers, or a starter + impact bullpen arm, if they're serious about solidifying the staff for a playoff run. 

 

There's still time, but I also don't see the need to celebrate the Romo addition as moving the needle in any significant way. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Acceptable is different than "like." They can rearrange low leverage guys all they want, and probably improve the pen to an extent, but that's shuffling deck chairs. They need arms (multiple) that are on par with Rodgers, or a starter + impact bullpen arm, if they're serious about solidifying the staff for a playoff run.

 

There's still time, but I also don't see the need to celebrate the Romo addition as moving the needle in any significant way.

Fair, if that's where you stand.

Personally, I don't think it's reasonable to expect multiple arms as good as or better than Rogers.

I think one guy on par with Rogers (hopefully pending), and another two a tier below (Romo + pending, or Romo + a current starter if we improve the rotation) is more realistic, and a pretty good upgrade to the staff.

[amjgt]

I wonder if we turned back the clock to last November and replaced “Romo” with “Cron” the threads would read almost identically.

[Jham]

Ok, I was a bit meh on the move prior to seeing him interviewed. After hearing his take on the trade, I love this move. Dude has attitude and charisma coming out of his ears. Type of veteran personality who can keep things loose when the race gets tight. Like now. He's really energized to join a winning team, and open to any role. Awesome attitude.

[jkcarew]

The Yankees right handed batters crush right handed pitching. They do not do nearly as well against left handed pitching. Romo also has had the benefit of coming in to start innings this year. He has not pitched nearly as well with runners on base and certainly did not in 2018 when he has the more difficult role of coming in to put out a fire.

But in 2018 facing the Yankees, in 8.2 innings over several appearances, Romo ‘only’ gave up 16 base-runners and 5 runs (no HR’s). In the annals of Twins/Yankees in the 21st century, that would be our Mariano Rivera. This could very well result in an extra 9-8 win or two...and even if not, this should at least shave an average of 15 minutes per game off or losses.

[Puckett34]

To echo what others have said. I like this trade so long as there are others to follow in the next 3-4 days.

 

Romo is decent enough as a 7-8th inning guy that is probably at minimum marginally better than the 4 recent DFA's, if not significantly better numbers-wise than 2.

 

Now go get Giles and/or Greene, and maybe one of the starters the rumors have the Twins attached to. Then we're in business.

[Doomtints]

Salary relief for the Marlins, an exchange of minor leaguers, and some fresh blood for the Twins to finish out the year.

 

This is a solid but not earth shattering move. 

[Roaddog]

I feel the opposite. Despite Cleveland closing the gap, I want some focus put on the postseason along with also winning regular season games.

 

And Romo lines up really well against the Yankees and Astros, particularly the Yankees.

 

I never really thought about this, but you are right. One thing I really like about Romo is how tough he can be on righties

[jkcarew]

I wonder if we turned back the clock to last November and replaced “Romo” with “Cron” the threads would read almost identically.

Interesting analogy. Cron is almost exactly league average offensively as a first-baseman. If Romo is expected to be a league average reliever for us, it’s perfectly natural, IMO, to have two types of reactions. If you think this is it, while it probably improves the situation, you’re critical that this move pushes the Twins over any significant hurdle. If you’re convinced a bigger pitching acquisition is coming, you view this more favorably.